North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Research Articles

Separating Annual, Interannual and Regional Change in Sea Surface Temperature in the Northeastern Atlantic and Nordic Seas

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) in the Northeastern North Atlantic and Nordic Seas exhibits pronounced variability across seasonal to decadal time scales. These changes can be expected to be driven by a combination of altered local conditions, shifts in seasonality and large‐scale regional oceanographic change. Separating the contribution from each of these offers insight into how the region is changing. Here, we present the result of an analysis of weekly satellite‐derived SST data from 1979 to 2020. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis allows us to separate observed changes in SST into independent underlying timeseries. Each timeseries explains part of the variability in SST. EOF1 can be allocated with changes in seasonality and a long‐term warming trend, with summer maxima warming with twice the rate (0.043°C year−1) compared to winter minima (0.023°C year−1). EOF2 is associated with the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the North Atlantic Oscillation, affecting the Atlantic Water flow across the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge, imposing a dipole cooling/warming pattern. Local sea‐ice melt along the southeast Greenland shelf is represented by EOF3, and finally the influx of warmer water with the North Icelandic Irminger Current is captured by EOF4. Each of these disaggregated signals differ considerably in their contribution to driving temporal and spatial trends in SST. The isolated signals offer a high‐resolution long‐time series of valuable indicators of oceanographic change which will likely be reflected in biogeochemistry, plankton, fish, mammals, and seabirds in the region.

The CISE-LOCEAN seawater isotopic database (1998–2021)

Abstract. The characteristics of the CISE-LOCEAN seawater isotope dataset (δ18O, δ2H, referred to as δD) are presented (https://doi.org/10.17882/71186; Waterisotopes-CISE-LOCEAN, 2021). This dataset covers the time period from 1998 to 2021 and currently includes close to 8000 data entries, all with δ18O, three-quarters of them also with δD, associated with a date stamp, space stamp, and usually a salinity measurement. Until 2010, samples were analyzed by isotopic ratio mass spectrometry and since then mostly by cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS). Instrumental uncertainty in this dataset is usually as low as 0.03 ‰ for δ18O and 0.15 ‰ for δD. An additional uncertainty is related to the isotopic composition of the in-house standards that are used to convert data to the Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) scale. Different comparisons suggest that since 2010 the latter have remained within at most 0.03 ‰ for δ18O and 0.20 ‰ for δD. Therefore, combining the two uncertainties suggests a standard deviation of at most 0.05 ‰ for δ18O and 0.25 ‰ for δD. For some samples, we find that there has been evaporation during collection and storage, requiring adjustment of the isotopic data produced by CRDS, based on d-excess (δD − 8×δ18O). This adjustment adds an uncertainty in the respective data of roughly 0.05 ‰ for δ18O and 0.10 ‰ for δD. This issue of conservation of samples is certainly a strong source of quality loss for parts of the database, and “small” effects may have remained undetected. The internal consistency of the database can be tested for subsets of the dataset when time series can be obtained (such as in the southern Indian Ocean or North Atlantic subpolar gyre). These comparisons suggest that the overall uncertainty of the spatially (for a cruise) or temporally (over a year) averaged data is less than 0.03 ‰ for δ18O and 0.15 ‰ for δD. However, 18 comparisons with duplicate seawater data analyzed in other laboratories or with other datasets in the intermediate and deep ocean suggest a larger scatter. When averaging the 18 comparisons done for δ18O, we find a difference of 0.082 ‰ with a standard error of 0.016 ‰. Such an average difference is expected due to the adjustments applied at LOCEAN to saline water data produced either by CRDS or isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), but the scatter found suggests that care is needed when merging datasets from different laboratories. Examples of time series in the surface North Atlantic subpolar gyre illustrate the temporal changes in water isotope composition that can be detected with a carefully validated dataset.

The 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption as a possible trigger for persistent cooling in the North Atlantic region

Abstract. Paleoclimate reconstructions have identified a period of exceptional summer and winter cooling in the North Atlantic region following the eruption of the tropical volcano Huaynaputina (Peru) in 1600 CE. A previous study based on numerical climate simulations has indicated a potential mechanism for the persistent cooling in a slowdown of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) and consequent ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. To examine whether this mechanism could have been triggered by the Huaynaputina eruption, this study compares the simulations used in the previous study both with and without volcanic forcing and this SPG shift to reconstructions from annual proxies in natural archives and historical written records as well as contemporary historical observations of relevant climate and environmental conditions. These reconstructions and observations demonstrate patterns of cooling and sea-ice expansion consistent with, but not indicative of, an eruption trigger for the proposed SPG slowdown mechanism. The results point to possible improvements in future model–data comparison studies utilizing historical written records. Moreover, we consider historical societal impacts and adaptations associated with the reconstructed climatic and environmental anomalies.

An extreme event of enhanced Arctic Ocean export west of Greenland caused by the pronounced dynamic sea level drop in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the mid-to-late 2010s

The North Atlantic subpolar gyre influences the climate in many different ways. Here, we identified that it is also responsible for a recent extreme event of Arctic Ocean freshwater export west of Greenland. A shift in climate regimes occurred in the mid-2000s, with a significant negative trend in the dynamic sea level in the subpolar gyre since then. We found that the dynamic sea level drop induced a strong increase in freshwater export west of Greenland, in particular from 2015 to 2017, when the sea level was close to the minimum. Sea ice melting and atmospheric variability in the Arctic had only a small contribution to this event. As the exported water from the Arctic Ocean has low salinity and constituents of chemical tracers very different from those in the North Atlantic, such events might have impacts on the North Atlantic ecosystem and the climate as well. Our study suggests that such events might be predictable if the subpolar gyre sea level has certain predictability.

Impact of Decadal Trends in the Surface Climate of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre on the Marine Environment of the Barents Sea

The Barents Sea is a key region in the Earth System and is home to highly productive marine resources. An integrated approach for strategic sustainable management of marine resources in such shelf-sea marine ecosystems requires, among many other aspects, a robust understanding of the impact of climate on local oceanic conditions. Here, using a combined observational and modelling approach, we show that decadal climatic trends associated with the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), within the period 1960–2019, have an impact on oceanic conditions in the Barents Sea. We relate hydrographic conditions in the Barents Sea to the decadal variability of the SPG through its impact on the Atlantic Inflow via the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea Opening. When the SPG warms, an increase in the throughput of subtropical waters across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge is followed by an increase in the volume of Atlantic Water entering the Barents Sea. These changes are reflected in pronounced decadal trends in the sea-ice concentration and primary production in the Barents Sea, which follow the SPG after an advective delay of 4–5 years. This impact of the SPG on sea-ice and primary production provides a dynamical explanation of the recently reported 7-year lagged statistical relationship between SPG and cod (Gadus morhua) biomass in the Barents Sea. Overall, these results highlight a potential for decadal ecosystem predictions in the Barents Sea.

On the Development of GFDL's Decadal Prediction System: Initialization Approaches and Retrospective Forecast Assessment

AbstractUsing GFDL's new coupled model SPEAR, we have developed a decadal coupled reanalysis/initialization system (DCIS) that does not use subsurface ocean observations. In DCIS, the winds and temperature in the atmosphere, along with sea surface temperature (SST), are restored to observations. Under this approach the ocean component of the coupled model experiences a sequence of surface heat and momentum fluxes that are similar to observations. DCIS offers two initialization approaches, called A1 and A2, which differ only in the atmospheric forcing from observations. In A1, the atmospheric winds/temperature are restored toward the JRA reanalysis; in A2, surface pressure observations are assimilated in the model. Two sets of coupled reanalyses have been completed during 1961–2019 using A1 and A2, and they show very similar multi‐decadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Two sets of retrospective decadal forecasts were then conducted using initial conditions from the A1 and A2 reanalyses. In comparison with previous prediction system CM2.1, SPEAR‐A1/A2 shows comparable skill of predicting the North Atlantic subpolar gyre SST, which is highly correlated with initial values of AMOC at all lead years. SPEAR‐A1 significantly outperforms CM2.1 in predicting multi‐decadal SST trends in the Southern Ocean (SO). Both A1 and A2 have skillful prediction of Sahel precipitation and the associated ITCZ shift. The prediction skill of SST is generally lower in A2 than A1 especially over SO presumably due to the sparse surface pressure observations.

On the seesaw in interannual variability of upper ocean heat advection between the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and the Nordic Seas

In this study we investigate the interannual variability of the heat content of the upper North Atlantic and the main factors, which influence the observed variability: the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and the ocean heat transport. The data from the combined in situ and satellite dataset ARMOR-3D, and from the ocean reanalyzes ORAS5 and SODA3 (two versions) show a similar decadal interannual variability of the heat content, as well as of oceanic heat transports the study regions, though the mean values may differ. The observed variations are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). The current velocity of the North Atlantic, East Greenland and Labrador currents of the Subpolar Gyre increases with the NAOI, but the velocity of the Irminger and West Greenland currents decreases. This forms a seesaw of heat advection by the North Atlantic Current between the Subpolar Gyre and Nordic Seas. In the Subpolar gyre during the periods of high NAOI, this negative anomaly of the oceanic heat convergence adds to the intensified sea-surface heat release to the atmosphere, together effectively reducing the upper ocean heat content. The upper ocean heat content of the Norwegian Sea shows practically no link to the NAOI, in spite of a somewhat larger oceanic heat flux across its southern boundary linked to high NAOI.

Circulation adjustment in the Arctic and Atlantic in response to Greenland and Antarctic mass loss

Following a high-end projection for mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, a freshwater forcing was applied to the ocean surface in the coupled climate model EC-Earthv2.2 to study the response to meltwater release assuming an RCP8.5 emission scenario. The meltwater forcing results in an overall freshening of the Atlantic that is dominated by advective changes, strongly enhancing the freshening due to dilution by Greenland meltwater release. The strongest circulation change occurs in the western North Atlantic subpolar gyre and in the gyre in the Nordic Seas, leaving the North Atlantic subpolar gyre the region where most advective salt export occurs. Associated with counteracting changes in both gyre systems, the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is rather weak over the 190 years of the experiment; it reduces with only 1 Sv (= 10^6 m ^3s ^{-1}), compared to changes in the subpolar gyre of 5 Sv. This relative insensitivity of the AMOC to the forcing is attributed to enhanced convection in the Nordic Seas and stronger overflows that compensate reduced convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas, and lead to higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the former and lower SSTs in the latter region. The weakened subpolar gyre in the west also shifts the North Atlantic Current and the subpolar-subtropical gyre boundary; with the subtropical gyre expanding, and the western subpolar gyre contracting. The SST changes are associated with obduction of Atlantic waters in the Nordic Seas that would otherwise obduct in the western subpolar gyre. The anomalous SSTs also induce a coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback that further strengthens the Nordic Seas circulation and weakens the western subpolar gyre. This occurs because the anomalous SST-gradient enhances the westerlies, especially between 65^{circ }N and 70^{circ }N; the associated increase in windstress curl consequently enhances the gyre in the Nordic Seas. This feedback is driven by the Greenland mass loss; Antarctic meltwater discharge causes a weaker, opposite response and more particularly affects the South Atlantic salinity budget through northward advection of low-salinity waters from the Southern Ocean. This effect, however, becomes visible only hundred years after the onset of Antarctic mass loss. We conclude that the response to freshwater forcing from both ice caps can lead to a complex response in the Atlantic circulation systems with opposing effects in different subbasins. The relative strength of the response is time-dependent and largely governed by internal feedbacks; the forcing acts mainly as a trigger and is decoupled from the response.

Surface atmospheric forcing as the driver of long-term pathways and timescales of ocean ventilation

Abstract. The ocean takes up 93 % of the excess heat in the climate system and approximately a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon via air–sea fluxes. Ocean ventilation and subduction are key processes that regulate the transport of water (and associated properties) from the surface mixed layer, which is in contact with the atmosphere, to the ocean's interior, which is isolated from the atmosphere for a timescale set by the large-scale circulation. Utilising numerical simulations with an ocean–sea-ice model using the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) framework, we assess where the ocean subducts water and, thus, takes up properties from the atmosphere; how ocean currents transport and redistribute these properties over time; and how, where, and when these properties are ventilated. Here, the strength and patterns of the net uptake of water and associated properties are analysed by including simulated seawater vintage dyes that are passive tracers released annually into the ocean surface layers between 1958 and 2017. The dyes' distribution is shown to capture years of strong and weak convection at deep and mode water formation sites in both hemispheres, especially when compared to observations in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Using this approach, relevant to any passive tracer in the ocean, we can evaluate the regional and depth distribution of the tracers, and determine their variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales. We highlight the key role of variations in the subduction rate driven by changes in surface atmospheric forcing in setting the different sizes of the long-term inventory of the dyes released in different years and the evolution of their distribution. This suggests forecasting potential for determining how the distribution of passive tracers will evolve, from having prior knowledge of mixed-layer properties, with implications for the uptake and storage of anthropogenic heat and carbon in the ocean.

On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models.

CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics-most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions-and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models.

Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues

Predicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the North Atlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on European climate. These predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG). In order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. Here, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of NA SPG SSTs. This system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. Analysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. Such a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the NA SPG and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached.

Impacts of Changed Ice-Ocean Stress on the North Atlantic Ocean: Role of Ocean Surface Currents

The importance of considering ocean surface currents in ice-ocean stress calculation in the North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic sea ice is investigated for the first time using a global coupled ocean-sea ice model. Considering ocean surface currents in ice-ocean stress calculation weakens the ocean surface stress and Ekman pumping by about 7.7 and 15% over the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. It also significantly reduces the mechanical energy input to ageostrophic and geostrophic currents, and weakens the mean and eddy kinetic energy by reducing the energy conversion rates of baroclinic and barotropic pathways. Furthermore, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Nordic Seas MOC, and the North Atlantic subpolar gyre are found to be reduced considerably (by 14.3, 31.0, and 18.1%, respectively). The weakened AMOC leads to a 0.12 PW reduction in maximum northward ocean heat transport, resulting in a reduced surface heat loss and lower sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean. This reduction also leads to a shrink in sea ice extent and an attenuation of sea ice thickness. These findings highlight the importance of properly considering both the geostrophic and ageostrophic components of ocean surface currents in ice-ocean stress calculation on ocean circulation and climate studies.

Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

AbstractDue to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST.

Do Surface Temperature Indices Reflect Centennial‐Timescale Trends in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength?

AbstractThe difference between North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures (SPG SSTs) and hemispheric‐ or global‐scale surface temperatures has been utilized as an index of centennial‐timescale changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength. Here, using Community Earth System Model ensembles, we show that surface temperature‐based indices (STIs) proposed to date largely reflect global‐scale temperature trends and thus do not reflect dynamical relationships with AMOC. More broadly, we find that relationships between STIs, SPG SSTs, and AMOC strength differ greatly in significance and magnitude over different time periods because they are dependent upon the nature of external forcing. In the twentieth century, characterized by offsetting greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, the relationship between SSTs and AMOC strength varies widely and changes sign across a 20‐member ensemble. We conclude that STIs and SPG SSTs are poor predictors of centennial‐timescale AMOC strength variations.

Year‐Round Measurements of the Irminger Current: Variability of a Two‐Core Current System Observed in 2014–2016

AbstractThe Irminger Current (IC), flowing northeastward along the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge, is an important component in the overturning of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. A 2‐year (2014–2016) time series from moored observations shows that the IC consists of two highly variable current cores. A subsampling experiment, using an ocean reanalysis, showed that this current's variability is adequately captured by the array. The two current cores contribute nearly equally to the mean volume transport. The total 2‐year mean transport was found to be 10.6 Sv with a standard deviation of daily (monthly) values of 9.2 Sv (4.4 Sv) and a standard error of 1.4 Sv. Mean heat and freshwater transport were 0.21 PW and −22.5 mSv, respectively (Sref = 34.92). The volume transport is strongest in spring, and the average over the first year (8.6 Sv) was lower than that of the second year (12.4 Sv), coinciding with an increase in the density gradient over the array in the second year. The variability of the total transport is dominated by variations in the western core, while the warmer, saltier eastern core contributes more to the heat and (negative) freshwater transport. During the two observed winters, which were marked by exceptional deep convection in the central Irminger Sea, mixed layer deepening down to 400 m depth and outcropping of the 27.7 kg m3 isopycnal were observed within the IC.

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

AbstractThere is increasing demand for robust, reliable, and actionable climate information for the next 1 to 50 years. This is challenging for the scientific community as the longest initialized predictions are limited to 10 years (decadal predictions). Thus, to provide seamless information for the upcoming 50 years, information from decadal predictions and uninitialized projections need to be merged. In this study, the ability to obtain valuable climate information beyond decadal time scales by constraining uninitialized projections using decadal predictions is assessed. The application of this framework to surface temperatures over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region, shows that the constrained uninitialized subensemble has higher skill compared to the overall projection ensemble also beyond 10 years when information from decadal predictions is no longer available. Though showing the potential of such a constraining approach to obtain climate information for the near‐term future, its utility depends on the added value of initialization.

Importance of Boundary Processes for Heat Uptake in the Subpolar North Atlantic

AbstractThe decadal to multidecadal temperature variability of the intermediate (700–2,000 m) North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) significantly imprints the global pattern of ocean heat uptake. Here, the origins and dominant pathways of this variability are investigated with an ocean analysis product (EN4), an ocean state estimate (ECCOv4), and idealized modeling approaches. Sustained increases and decreases of intermediate temperature in the SPG correlate with long‐lasting warm and cold states of the upper ocean with the largest anomalous vertical heat exchanges confined to the vicinity of continental boundaries and strong ocean currents. In particular, vertical diffusive processes along the boundaries of the Labrador, Irminger, and Newfoundland basins are important drivers of the recent intermediate depth warming trend observed during 1996–2014. The overall effect of those processes is captured by a one‐dimensional diffusive model with appropriate boundary‐like parametrization and demonstrated through the boundary‐focused downward propagation of a passive tracer in a 3‐D numerical simulation. Our results imply that the slow and quasi‐periodic ventilation of intermediate thermohaline properties and associated heat uptake in the SPG are not strictly driven by convection‐restratification events in the open seas but also receives a key contribution from boundary sinking and mixing. Increased skill for modeling and predicting intermediate‐depth ocean properties in the North Atlantic will hence require the appropriate representation of surface‐deep dynamical connections within the boundary currents encircling Greenland and Newfoundland.

The importance of North Atlantic Ocean transports for seasonal forecasts

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a main driver for predictability at decadal time scales, but has been largely ignored in the context of seasonal forecasts. Here, we show compelling evidence that AMOC initialization can have a direct and strong impact on seasonal forecasts. Winter reforecasts with SEAS5, the current operational seasonal forecasting system by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, exhibit errors of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the western part of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre that are strongly correlated with decadal variations in the AMOC initial conditions. In the early reforecast period 1981–1996, too warm SST coincide with an overly strong AMOC transporting excessive heat into the region. In the ocean reanalyses providing the forecast initial conditions, excessive heat transport is balanced by additional surface cooling from relaxing towards observed SST, and therefore the fit to observations is acceptable. However, the additional surface cooling contributes to enhanced deep convection and strengthens the AMOC, thereby establishing a feedback loop. In the forecasts, where the SST relaxation is absent, the balance is disrupted, and fast growth of SST errors ensues. The warm SST bias has a strong local impact on surface air temperature, mean sea-level pressure, and precipitation patterns, but remote impact is small. In the late reforecast period 2001–2016, neither the SST in the western North Atlantic nor the AMOC show large biases. The non-stationarity of the bias prevents an effective forecast calibration and causes an apparent loss of skill in the affected region. The case presented here demonstrates the importance of correctly initializing slowly varying aspects of the Earth System such as the AMOC in order to improve forecasts on seasonal and shorter time scales.

Impact of the North Atlantic Warming Hole on Sensible Weather

AbstractIn future climate projections there is a notable lack of warming in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). In a set of large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with the Community Earth System Model, the NAWH was previously shown to contribute to the projected poleward shift and eastward elongation of the North Atlantic jet. The current study investigates the impact of the warming hole on sensible weather, particularly over Europe, using the same simulations. North Atlantic jet regimes are classified within the model simulations by applying self-organizing maps analysis to winter daily wind speeds on the dynamic tropopause. The NAWH is found to increase the prevalence of jet regimes with stronger and more-poleward-shifted jets. A previously identified transient eddy-mean response to the NAWH that leads to a downstream enhancement of wind speeds is found to be dependent on the jet regime. These localized regime-specific changes vary by latitude and strength, combining to form the broad increase in seasonal-mean wind speeds over Eurasia. Impacts on surface temperature and precipitation within the various North Atlantic jet regimes are also investigated. A large decrease in surface temperature over Eurasia is found to be associated with the NAWH in regimes where air masses are advected eastward over the subpolar gyre prior to reaching Eurasia. Precipitation is found to be locally suppressed over the warming hole region and increased directly downstream. The impact of this downstream response on coastal European precipitation is dependent on the strength of the NAWH.

Exceptional 20th Century Ocean Circulation in the Northeast Atlantic

AbstractThe North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) connects tropical and high‐latitude waters, playing a leading role in deep‐water formation, propagation of Atlantic water into the Arctic, and as habitat for many ecosystems. Instrumental records spanning recent decades document significant decadal variability in SPG circulation, with associated hydrographic and ecological changes. Emerging longer‐term records provide circumstantial evidence that the North Atlantic also experienced centennial trends during the 20th century. Here, we use marine sediment records to show that there has been a long‐term change in SPG circulation during the industrial era, largely during the 20th century. Moreover, we show that the shift and late 20th century SPG configuration were unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. Recent SPG dynamics resulted in an expansion of subtropical ecosystems into new habitats and likely also altered the transport of heat to high latitudes.