Separating Annual, Interannual and Regional Change in Sea Surface Temperature in the Northeastern Atlantic and Nordic Seas

Abstract

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) in the Northeastern North Atlantic and Nordic Seas exhibits pronounced variability across seasonal to decadal time scales. These changes can be expected to be driven by a combination of altered local conditions, shifts in seasonality and large‐scale regional oceanographic change. Separating the contribution from each of these offers insight into how the region is changing. Here, we present the result of an analysis of weekly satellite‐derived SST data from 1979 to 2020. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis allows us to separate observed changes in SST into independent underlying timeseries. Each timeseries explains part of the variability in SST. EOF1 can be allocated with changes in seasonality and a long‐term warming trend, with summer maxima warming with twice the rate (0.043°C year−1) compared to winter minima (0.023°C year−1). EOF2 is associated with the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the North Atlantic Oscillation, affecting the Atlantic Water flow across the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge, imposing a dipole cooling/warming pattern. Local sea‐ice melt along the southeast Greenland shelf is represented by EOF3, and finally the influx of warmer water with the North Icelandic Irminger Current is captured by EOF4. Each of these disaggregated signals differ considerably in their contribution to driving temporal and spatial trends in SST. The isolated signals offer a high‐resolution long‐time series of valuable indicators of oceanographic change which will likely be reflected in biogeochemistry, plankton, fish, mammals, and seabirds in the region.