Niche Modeling Approach Research Articles

Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus in Europe: integrating microclimatic factors into ecological niche models.

Ixodes ricinus, commonly known as the castor bean tick and sheep tick, is a significant vector of various diseases, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis. Owing to climate change, the distribution and activity of I. ricinus are expected to increase, leading to an increase in the number of diseases transmitted by this species. Most distribution models and ecological niche models utilize macroclimate datasets such as WorldClim or CHELSA to map the distribution of disease-transmitting ticks. However, microclimatic factors are crucial for the activity and survival of small arthropods. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach was used to assess the climatic suitability of I. ricinus using both microclimatic and macroclimatic parameters. A Mixed model was built by combining parameters from the Soiltemp (microclimate) and Wordclim (macroclimate) databases, whereas a Macroclimate model was built with the CHELSA dataset. Additionally, future suitabilities were projected via the macroclimate model under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Macroclimate and Mixed models showed similar distributions, confirming the current distribution of I. ricinus. The most important climatic factors were seasonality, annual temperature range, humidity and precipitation. Future projections suggest significant expansion in northern and eastern Europe, with notable declines in southern Europe.

Holocene Climate Change Promoted Allopatric Divergence and Disjunct Geographic Distribution in a Bee Orchid Species

ABSTRACTAimSpecies with disjunct geographic distributions provide natural opportunities to investigate incipient or recent allopatric divergence. The combination of both genetic and ecological data may be fruitful to decipher the causes of such patterns: (i) actual vicariance, (ii) successful colonisation from one source to a new range (dispersal, biological introduction) or (iii) parallel convergent evolution.LocationSouthern France and Northern Spain.TaxonThe bee orchid Ophrys aveyronensis (and its two recognised subspecies O. a. subsp. aveyronensis and O. a. subsp. vitorica) displays a disjunct geographic distribution with two subranges separated by 600 km on both sides of the Pyrenees mountain range.MethodsAs allopatric divergence is often complex to document in the wild, we used a combination of population genomics and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the causes of this intriguing biogeographic pattern.ResultsThe population genomic data demonstrate that all the studied populations exhibit similar patterns of genetic diversity and dramatic decrease in effective size compared with the ancestral population. Significant genetic differentiation and reciprocal monophyly exist between populations of the two subranges of O. aveyronensis, despite a very recent divergence time as young as ca. 1500 generations ago. Moreover, paleo‐ENM analyses support that the disjunct geographic distribution of O. aveyronensis is consistent with a range split of a broad ancestral range, contraction and distinct longitudinal and latitudinal shifts in response to climate warming during the Holocene.Main ConclusionThe congruence of the results obtained from both population genomics and ENM approaches documents how very recent continental allopatric divergence initiated speciation in this system. O. aveyronensis provides a promising opportunity to study the onset of reproductive isolation and parallel evolution following an initial stage of geographic separation in a group with high diversification rate.

Global prospects for cultivating Centella asiatica: An ecological niche modeling approach under current and future climatic scenarios

Centella asiatica is a medicinal plant recognized for its various benefits contributed by its metabolites and has been used as a food supplement since prehistorical times across various cultures. Due to the reliance on natural populations of C. asiatica and the impacts of environmental factors on its yield and centelloside production, there is a need to identify suitable cultivation areas for this species. We employed ecological niche modelling with bioclimatic and soil variables to evaluate the suitability of cultivation under current and future climatic scenarios. Our results identified suitable areas for cultivating C. asiatica worldwide, indicating its potential for global commercial cultivation. However, the niche reconstruction of highly concentrated centelloside was restricted to South and Southeast Asia due to the lack of available data. When we projected the modelled niche of centelloside in these regions, we observed a lower occurrence probability in some areas, suggesting potential challenges in cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, our results suggest a consistent future distribution for this species when we projected the modelled niche under future climates based on various socio-economic scenarios. This study not only identifies suitable areas to develop commercial cultivation for C. asiatica with highly concentrated centelloside, but also provides supporting evidence of the consistency of these areas, which can increase its sustainability.

Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and Eurasian Collared Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in a Megalopolis

The monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) are two of the most prevalent invasive species globally due to their high dispersal ability. Since these birds were first recorded (1999 for the monk parakeet and 2013 for Eurasian collared dove) in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), both species have spread rapidly throughout the area. However, the impacts of global climate changes on the distribution patterns of these species remain poorly studied across the MCMA. Therefore, based on an ecological niche modeling approach, we assessed the expansion and potential invasion of both species in this megalopolis using current and future climate projections (year 2050). Our results estimated that the current suitable areas are 5564 km2 for the monk parakeet and 5489 km2 for the Eurasian collared dove, covering ~70% of the study area, suggesting a rapidly invading species, as expected. We observed a slight decrease (up to 24%) in both species in future climate scenarios, but our models estimated that the sizes of the suitable areas would remain stable. We found that the range expansion of these species in the megalopolis may be largely attributed to their propensity for jump dispersion and short-time niche expansion ability. Our findings allow for a better understanding of the factors contributing to the range expansion of the monk parakeet and the Eurasian collared dove in Mexico and can better inform the monitoring guidelines for and assessments of these invasive species.

Predicting river phytoplankton blooms and community succession using ecological niche modeling

AbstractExcessive phytoplankton concentrations in rivers can result in the loss of plant and invertebrate communities, and threaten drinking water supplies. Whilst the physicochemical controls on algal blooms have been identified previously, how these factors combine to control the initiation, size, and cessation of blooms in rivers is not well understood. We applied flow cytometry to quantify diatom, chlorophyte, and cyanobacterial group abundances in the River Thames (UK) at weekly intervals from 2011 to 2022, alongside physicochemical data. A niche modeling approach was used to identify thresholds in water temperature, flow, solar radiation, and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations required to produce periods of phytoplankton growth, with blooms only occurring when all thresholds were met. The thresholds derived from the 2011 to 2018 dataset were applied to a test data set (2019–2022), which predicted the timing and duration of blooms at accuracies of > 80%. Diatoms and nano‐chlorophyte blooms were initiated by flow and water temperature, and usually terminated due to temperature and flow going out of the threshold range, or SRP and Si becoming limiting. Cyanobacterial bloom dynamics were primarily controlled by water temperature and solar radiation. This simple methodology provides a key understanding of phytoplankton community succession and inter‐annual variation and can be applied to any river with similar water quality and phytoplankton data. It provides early warnings of algal and cyanobacterial bloom timings, which support future catchment management decisions to safeguard water resources, and provides a basis for modeling changing phytoplankton bloom risk due to future climate change.

Investigating the effects of species niche shifts on the potential distribution of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) by using global occurrence data.

Invasive species may occupy quite different environments in their invaded areas to native ones, which may intensively interfere with predicting potential distribution through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Here, we take the tomato leafminerTuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), a tomato pest, as an example to investigate this topic. We analyzed niche expansion, stability, unfilling, and Schoener's D by principal component analysis (PCA)ordination method to examine its realized niche shifts and to explore how ENM approaches are affected by niche shifts. We used 5 datasets: Asian, African, European, South American, and global occurrence records in this study. Results showed that high niche unfilling for the species' invaded areas in Asia (20%), Africa (12%), and Europe (37%), possibly due to T. absoluta being in the early stages of invasion. High niche expansion was observed in Asia (38%) and Europe (19%), implying that some European and Asian populations had reached new climatic areas. African niche had the most niche stability (94%) and was equivalent to the native one in climate space (PCA ordination method), but the n-dimensional climate space framework showed that they were different. When projecting the native model to Asia and Europe, the native model performed poorly, implying that the niche shifts affected the transferability of the native model. ENM based on global data outperformed than other models, and our results suggested that T. absoluta has a large potential distribution in Asia, Mexico, South Europe, the United States, and Australia. Meanwhile, we recommend updating ENMs based on the species' invasion stage.

Using fossil records to predict short‐term changes in niche and spatial dynamics in a broadly distributed coral reef: Niche conservatism and adaptation

AbstractAimGiven the rapid pace of climate change and its significant impact on species distribution and survival, understanding the dynamics of ecological niches over time becomes imperative. By employing ecological niche models and species distribution models, alongside analyses of historical occurrence records and palaeoclimatic data, we aimed to assess the extent of changes in the niche of Porites astreoides from the Holocene to the present. Specifically, we quantified the amount of: (1) niche stability, (2) niche expansion, (3) niche decline and (4) niche overlap in both the environmental and geographical space.LocationAtlantic Ocean.TaxonCnidarian, Scleractinia.Materials and MethodsThrough fossil and current records and environmental variables from the same periods, we use two ecological niche modelling approaches (overlap and maximum entropy) to analyse niche dynamics in environmental and geographical space, specifically the degree of expansion, stability and loss of niches over the last ~8000 years. We used a principal component analysis to build the models within two different calibration areas (minimum convex polygon and buffer).ResultsOur results were similar, except for the loss of habitat, across the calibration areas used to build the models. The PCA used to build the models accounts for more than 65% of the variation in the data. Most of the environmental niche remained stable with an increase of almost a third and a negligible loss. Models in geographical space showed that most of the suitable area remained stable, but the species expanded its range from the Caribbean to the coast of Brazil. The analysis also showed a high value of niche overlap in environmental and geographical spaces.Main ConclusionsThe species studied is one of the corals with the greatest capacity to adapt to new environments and locations, but it also has a high tendency to preserve niche traits. These characteristics helped the species to expand its environmental and geographical niche in a period of relative climatic stability. On the other hand, these same characteristics of niche conservatism can lead the species to population decline and habitat loss, if the speed of adaptation is lower than the rapid climate changes predicted for the middle and end of the 21st century.

Historical Demography and Climate Driven Range Shifts in the Blue-spotted Salamander Under the Climate Change Scenarios

This study integrates phylogeography with distributional analysis to understand the demographic history and range dynamics of a limited dispersal capacity amphibian species, Blue-spotted Salamander (Ambystoma laterale), under several climate change scenarios. For this we used an ecological niche modeling approach, together with Bayesian based demographic analysis, to develop inferences regarding this species' demographic history and range dynamics. The current model output was mostly congruent with the present distribution of the Blue-spotted Salamander. However, under both the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a substantially narrower distribution than the present. These predictions showed almost no suitable area in the current distribution range of the species during almost the last 22.000 y before present (ybp). The predictions indicated that the distribution of this species shifted from eastern coast of northern North America to the southern part of the current distribution range of the species. The Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis, which provided good resolution of the effective population size changes over the Blue-spotted Salamander history, was mostly congruent with ecological niche modeling predictions for this species. This study provides the first investigation of the Blue-spotted Salamander’s late-Quaternary history based on ecological niche modeling and Bayesian-based demographic analysis. In terms of the main result of this study, we found that the species' present genetic structure has been substantially affected by past climate changes, and this species has reached current distribution range almost from nothing since the Last Glacial Maximum.

Bears into the Niche-Space: Phylogeography and Phyloclimatic Model of the Family Ursidae

Assessing niche evolution remains an open question and an actively developing area of study. The family Ursidae consists of eight extant species for which, despite being the most studied family of carnivores, little is known about the influence of climate on their evolutionary history and diversification. We evaluated their evolutionary patterns based on a combined phylogeography and niche modeling approach. We used complete mitogenomes, estimated divergence times, generated ecological niche models and applied a phyloclimatic model to determine the species evolutionary and diversification patterns associated with their respective environmental niches. We inferred the family evolutionary path along the environmental conditions of maximum temperature and minimum precipitation, from around 20 million years ago to the present. Our findings show that the phyloclimatic niches of the bear species occupy most of the environmental space available on the planet, except for the most extreme warm conditions, in accordance with the wide geographic distribution of Ursidae. Moreover, some species exhibit broader environmental niches than others, and in some cases, they explore precipitation axes more extensively than temperature axes or vice versa, suggesting that not all species are equally adaptable to these variables. We were able to elucidate potential patterns of niche conservatism and evolution, as well as niche overlapping, suggesting interspecific competitive exclusion between some of the bear species. We present valuable insights into the ecological and evolutionary processes driving the diversification and distribution of the Ursidae. Our approach also provides essential information for guiding effective conservation strategies, particularly in terms of distribution limits in the face of climate change.

Range-Wide Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling Provide Insights into the Evolutionary History of the Mongolian Racerunner (Eremias argus) in Northeast Asia.

The Mongolian racerunner, Eremias argus, is a small lizard endemic to Northeast Asia that can serve as an excellent model for investigating how geography and past climate change have jointly influenced the evolution of biodiversity in this region. To elucidate the processes underlying its diversification and demography, we reconstructed the range-wide phylogeographic pattern and evolutionary trajectory, using phylogenetic, population genetic, landscape genetic, Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction and ecological niche modeling approaches. Phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA cyt b gene revealed eight lineages that were unbounded by geographic region. The genetic structure of E. argus was mainly determined by geographic distance. Divergence dating indicated that E. argus and E. brenchleyi diverged during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. E. argus was estimated to have coalesced at~0.4351 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 19). Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analysis revealed out-of-Inner Mongolia and rapid colonization events from the end of the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with the expanded suitable range of the Last Glacial Maximum. Pre-Last Glacial Maximum growth of population is presented for most lineages of E. argus. The Glacial Maximum contraction model and the previous multiple glacial refugia hypotheses are rejected. This may be due to an increase in the amount of climatically favorable habitats in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, E. argus barbouri most likely represents an invalid taxon. The present study is the first to report a range-wide phylogeography of reptiles over such a large region in Northeast Asia. Our results make a significant contribution towards understanding the biogeography of the entire Northeast Asia.

Climate change will likely facilitate invasion of Asian orchid Eulophia graminea into new areas

Climate change plays an increasing role in the global biodiversity crisis. Alteration in local climatic conditions not only can negatively affect native biodiversity but also can accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive species. In this study the ecological niche modelling approach was used to evaluate possible changes in the distribution of suitable niches of invasive orchid Eulophia graminea within its native (Asia) and non-native geographical range (America, Australia). We mapped the current potential range of this species and analysed three various projections of future climate (for 2100) each with four different climate change scenarios (SSPs). Calculated niche overlap indexes indicated low similarity of niches occupied by native and invasive populations of E. graminea and Australian populations seem to be the most unique, while American and Asian groups share partially similar niches. The occurrence of the American population of E. graminea was correlated especially with the temperature seasonality, while the Asian and Australian populations with annual precipitation and precipitation of the wettest quarter. As indicated in our analyses within Asia and America, E. graminea does not occupy all climatically suitable niches. On the other hand, in Australia the species studied already occupies all appropriate niche space. Climate change will likely be favorable for species studied to expand its range if the biotic components of its niche space (e.g., mycorrhizal fungi) will respond similarly. The most significant range expansion is predicted to occur in Australia which is interesting considering the marginally suitable habitats that E. graminea currently occupies.

Protecting breeding sites: a critical goal for the conservation of the golden eagle in Mexico under global change scenarios

Impacts of global climate and land‐use changes on distribution patterns and breeding sites remain today poorly studied for several vulnerable emblematic bird species, including the Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). Herein, we analyzed the potential effect of global climate changes and agricultural activities on the distribution patterns of this top predator across Mexico. We assessed the long-term role of protected areas (PAs) for safeguarding the species’ overall distribution and its breeding sites. We evaluated current and future (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s) threats from global change using ecological niche modeling and geographic information system approaches to determine the percentage of the species’ distribution area that overlaps with highly human-modified areas and PAs under each climate scenario. We also used niche overlap tests to assess whether the species’ breeding sites show equivalence or similarity of climatic conditions over time. Our findings revealed shifts in the Golden Eagle’s distributional area, with an overall size reduction (by ~ 57% in the 2040s and ~ 78% in the 2080s) due to future environmental changes, mainly attributable to increasingly dry and warm conditions. Mexican PAs cover ~ 12% of the Golden Eagle’s range across country, but this decreased by > 33% on average under the species’ future distributions. Although the hypothesis of equivalent climatic conditions at breeding sites over time was rejected, those sites did have long-term climate similarity (niche overlap: 0.75–0.83; P < 0.05). Considering the species’ nest site fidelity and that colonization of new areas within Mexico seems unlikely, protection of these breeding sites is a critical step for the long-term conservation of this emblematic species in Mexico.

Recent genetic, phenetic and ecological divergence across the Mesoamerican highlands: a study case with Diglossa baritula (Aves: Thraupidae).

The topographical, geological, climatic and biodiversity complexity of Mesoamerica has made it a primary research focus. The Mesoamerican highlands is a region with particularly high species richness and within-species variation. The Cinnamon-bellied Flowerpiercer, Diglossa baritula (Wagler, 1832), is a species endemic to the Mesoamerican highlands, with three allopatric subspecies currently recognized. To characterize divergence within this species, we integrated genomics, morphology, coloration and ecological niche modeling approaches, obtained from sampling individuals across the entire geographic distribution of the species. Our results revealed a clear genomic divergence between the populations to the east versus the west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. In contrast to the genomic results, morphology and coloration analyses showed intermediate levels of differentiation, indicating that population groups within D. baritula have probably been under similar selective pressures. Our morphology results indicated that the only sexually dimorphic morphological variable is the wing chord, with males having a longer wing chord than females. Finally, ecological data indicated that there are differences in ecological niche within D. baritula. Our data suggest that D. baritula could contain two or more incipient species at the intermediate phase of the speciation continuum. These results highlight the importance of the geographical barrier of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Pleistocene climatic events in driving isolation and population divergence in D. baritula. The present investigation illustrates the speciation potential of the D. baritula complex and the capacity of Mesoamerican highlands to create cryptic biodiversity and endemism.

The role of ecological niche conservatism in the evolution of bird distributional patterns in Mesoamerican seasonally dry forests

AbstractAimDue to its complex biogeographical and ecological history, the seasonally dry forests (SDF) of Mesoamerica are considered a biodiversity hotspot. SDF are currently distributed in relatively large and continuous, but isolated areas, in which there are both high total and endemic species numbers. Among birds, few species are shared across SDF patches; other species are endemic to one of these; and for two species currently endemic to one patch, fossils have been recovered in a different one, suggesting a former widespread distribution in so species, implying that current distributional patterns are probably recent.LocationMesoamerican seasonally dry forests.MethodsWe assessed the role of niche divergence/conservatism in the evolution of bird distributional patterns. Using an ecological niche modelling approach, we estimated palaeodistributions for two species currently endemic to the SDF of Yucatan Peninsula (YP), two to the Mesoamerican Pacific Slope (MPS) with fossil record in the YP and two more showing an allopatric pattern. For comparison, we simulated virtual species (VS) matching each pattern, assuming they represent the expected distribution of species in each SDF patch. To test hypothesis of niche conservatism, we assessed the niche equivalence/similarity between the patches represented by the VS, and in each bird species and its VS distributional counterpart.ResultsOur results showed three patterns: (i) no past geographical connectiveness among suitable areas; (ii) niche conservatism, but not equivalence, despite low niche overlap and geographical distance; and (iii) potential niche divergence.Main ConclusionsFor birds currently endemic to the MPS, our results suggest that the absence from the YP may be attributed to the loss of their environmental niche. Widespread species showed either niche conservatism or divergence. YP endemics showed niche divergence. Our results underline the role of niche divergence/conservatism in the evolution of distributional patterns in Mesoamerican SDF avifauna.

Projected impacts of climate change and anthropogenic effects on habitat distribution of endangered Javan Hawk-Eagle in Indonesia

Changing climate will jeopardize biodiversity, particularly the geographic distribution of endemic species. One such species is the Javan Hawk-Eagle (JHE, Nisaetus bartelsi), a charismatic raptor found only on Java Island, Indonesia. Thus, it is crucial to develop an appropriate conservation strategy to preserve the species. Ecological niche modeling is considered a valuable tool for designing conservation plans for the JHE. We provide an ecological niche modeling approach and transfer its model to future climate scenarios for the JHE. We utilize various machine learning algorithms under sustainability and business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for 2050. Additionally, we investigate the conservation vulnerability of the JHE, capturing multifaceted pressures on the species from climate dissimilarities and human disturbance variables. Our study reveals that the ensemble model performs exceptionally well, with temperature emerging as the most critical factor affecting the JHE distribution. This finding indicates that climate change will have a significant impact on the JHE species. Our results suggest that the JHE distribution will likely decrease by 28.41% and 40.16% from the current JHE distribution under sustainability and BAU scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our study reveals high-potential refugia for future JHE, covering 7,596 km2 (61%) under the sustainability scenario and only 4,403 km2 (35%) under the BAU scenario. Therefore, effective management and planning, including habitat restoration, refugia preservation, habitat connectivity, and local community inclusivity, should be well-managed to achieve JHE conservation targets.

Modeling of Human Rabies Cases in Brazil in Different Future Global Warming Scenarios.

Bat species have been observed to have the potential to expand their distribution in response to climate change, thereby influencing shifts in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of human rabies cases. In this study, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project climatic suitability under different future global warming scenarios for human rabies cases in Brazil, and assessed the impact on the probability of emergence of new cases. We obtained notification records of human rabies cases in all Brazilian cities from January 2001 to August 2023, as reported by the State and Municipal Health Departments. The current and future climate data were sourced from a digital repository on the WorldClim website. The future bioclimatic variables provided were downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 (a global model ensemble) and extracted from the regionalized climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL for three future socioeconomic scenarios over four periods (2021-2100). Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected for modeling human rabies. Temperature seasonality was the bioclimatic variable with the highest relative contribution to both current and future consensus models. Future scenario modeling for human rabies indicated a trend of changes in the areas of occurrence, maintaining the current pace of global warming, population growth, socioeconomic instability, and the loss of natural areas. In Brazil, there are areas with a higher likelihood of climatic factors contributing to the emergence of cases. When assessing future scenarios, a change in the local climatic suitability is observed that may lead to a reduction or increase in cases, depending on the region.

Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics.

Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

Conservation applications of niche modeling: Native and naturalized ferns may compete for limited Hawaiian dryland habitat.

Competition from naturalized species and habitat loss are common threats to native biodiversity and may act synergistically to increase competition for decreasing habitat availability. We use Hawaiian dryland ferns as a model for the interactions between land-use change and competition from naturalized species in determining habitat availability. We used fine-resolution climatic variables and carefully curated occurrence data from herbaria and community science repositories to estimate the distributions of Hawaiian dryland ferns. We quantified the degree to which naturalized ferns tend to occupy areas suitable for native species and mapped the remaining available habitat given land-use change. Of all native species, Doryopteris angelica had the lowest percentage of occurrences of naturalized species in its suitable area while D. decora had the highest. However, all Doryopteris spp. had a higher percentage overlap, while Pellaea ternifolia had a lower percentage overlap, than expected by chance. Doryopteris decora and D. decipiens had the lowest proportions (<20%) of suitable area covering native habitat. Areas characterized by shared environmental preferences of native and naturalized ferns may decrease due to human development and fallowed agricultural lands. Our study demonstrates the value of place-based application of a recently developed correlative ecological niche modeling approach for conservation risk assessment in a rapidly changing and urbanized island ecosystem.

Understanding the invasion potential of Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara in the Western Ghats, India: An ecological niche modelling approach under current and future climatic scenarios

Invasive species are the major cause of native biodiversity loss and species extinction, which have predominantly affected one of the world's ‘hottest hotspots’ of biodiversity located in the Western Ghats, India with varied intensity. Therefore, in the present study, an investigation has been undertaken to model the potential habitat of dominant invasive plant species (IPSs) viz., Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M.King & H.Rob. and Lantana camara L. in the Western Ghats, in the current and future climate change scenarios by evaluating the influence of the bioclimatic and topographical variables using species distribution modelling (SDM). The study exhibited the large invasion and proliferation of C. odorata (33.01%) and L. camara (30.33%) in the Western Ghats, especially the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR) under the current scenario. The future projections derived using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of Climate Scenarios datasets (SSPs 126, 245, 370, and 585) demonstrated a significant reduction in the invasion of C. odorata (>5.48% of WG), while a surge in the invasion of L. camara (>5.83% of WG) barring a few exceptions. However, the study highlighted the major future invasion of L. camara (45,262 sq. km; 31.33% under SSP 126 (2021–40)) and C. odorata (33,844 sq. km; 23.43% under SSP 245 (2021–40)) in the Western Ghats, of which large concentrations were observed in the NBR (L. camara: 5711 sq. km; 12.6%; C. odorata: 5090 sq. km; 15.04%) and the southern coasts. The study introduces a comprehensive and novel method leveraging SSPs of climate scenarios to identify the hotspots of major plant invasions in the Indian tropical forests using an ecological niche modelling. These findings hold significant relevance for prompt actions for invasion management in both current major hotspots and the regions susceptible to future invasions.

Mapping the potential distribution of the principal vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus Hyalomma marginatum in the Old World.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widely distributed tick-borne viral disease in humans and is caused by the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). The virus has a broader distribution, expanding from western China and South Asia to the Middle East, southeast Europe, and Africa. The historical known distribution of the CCHFV vector Hyalomma marginatum in Europe includes most of the Mediterranean and the Balkan countries, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Further expansion of its potential distribution may have occurred in and out of the Mediterranean region. This study updated the distributional map of the principal vector of CCHFV, H. marginatum, in the Old World using an ecological niche modeling approach based on occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and a set of covariates. The model predicted higher suitability of H. marginatum occurrences in diverse regions of Africa and Asia. Furthermore, the model estimated the environmental suitability of H. marginatum across Europe. On a continental scale, the model anticipated a widespread potential distribution encompassing the southern, western, central, and eastern parts of Europe, reaching as far north as the southern regions of Scandinavian countries. The distribution of H. marginatum also covered countries across Central Europe where the species is not autochthonous. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random expectations (p < 0.001). Based on the model results, climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of H. marginatum and their survival as adults in many regions of the Old World. Regular updates of the models are still required to continually assess the areas at risk using up-to-date occurrence and climatic data in present-day and future conditions.