Niche Modeling Approach Research Articles

The dynamics of historical and recent range shifts in the ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus)

Climate variability is the most important force affecting distributional range dynamics of common and widespread species with important impacts on biogeographic patterns. This study integrates phylogeography with distributional analyses to understand the demographic history and range dynamics of a widespread bird species, the Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus), under several climate change scenarios. For this, I used an ecological niche modeling approach, together with Bayesian based phylogeographic analysis and landscape genetics, to develop robust inferences regarding this species’ demographic history and range dynamics. The model’s predictions were mostly congruent with the present distribution of the Ruffed Grouse. However, under the Last Glacial Maximum bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a substantially narrower distribution than the present. The predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum also showed three allopatric refugia in south-eastern and west-coast North America, and a cryptic refugium in Alaska. The prediction for the Last Interglacial showed two separate distributions to the west and east of the Rocky Mountains. In addition, the predictions for 2050 and 2070 indicated that the Ruffed Grouse will most likely show slight range shifts to the north and will become more widely distributed than in the past or present. At present, effective population connectivity throughout North America was weakly positively correlated with Fst values. That is, the species’ distribution range showed a weak isolation-by-resistance pattern. The extended Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis, which provided good resolution of the effective population size changes over the Ruffed Grouse’s history, was mostly congruent with ecological niche modelling predictions for this species. This study offers the first investigation of the late-Quaternary history of the Ruffed Grouse based on ecological niche modelling and Bayesian based demographic analysis. The species’ present genetic structure is significantly affected by past climate changes, particularly during the last 130 kybp. That is, this study offers valuable evidence of the ‘expansion–contraction’ model of North America’s Pleistocene biogeography.

Bats as putative Zaire ebolavirus reservoir hosts and their habitat suitability in Africa

The genus Ebolavirus comprises some of the deadliest viruses for primates and humans and associated disease outbreaks are increasing in Africa. Different evidence suggests that bats are putative reservoir hosts and play a major role in the transmission cycle of these filoviruses. Thus, detailed knowledge about their distribution might improve risk estimations of where future disease outbreaks might occur. A MaxEnt niche modelling approach based on climatic variables and land cover was used to investigate the potential distribution of 9 bat species associated to the Zaire ebolavirus. This viral species has led to major Ebola outbreaks in Africa and is known for causing high mortalities. Modelling results suggest suitable areas mainly in the areas near the coasts of West Africa with extensions into Central Africa, where almost all of the 9 species studied find suitable habitat conditions. Previous spillover events and outbreak sites of the virus are covered by the modelled distribution of 3 bat species that have been tested positive for the virus not only using serology tests but also PCR methods. Modelling the habitat suitability of the bats is an important step that can benefit public information campaigns and may ultimately help control future outbreaks of the disease.

Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American continental shelf

AbstractProjections of climate change impacts on living resources are being conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system models (ESMs), and both structural and parameter uncertainty in species distribution modelling. Here, we conducted 8964 unique 21st century projections for shifts in suitable habitat for seven economically important marine species including American lobster, Pacific halibut, Pacific ocean perch, and summer flounder. For all species, both the ESM used to simulate future temperatures and the niche modelling approach used to represent species distributions were important sources of uncertainty, while variation associated with parameter values in niche models was minor. Greenhouse gas emissions scenario contributed to uncertainty for projections at the century scale. The characteristics of projection uncertainty differed among species and also varied spatially, which underscores the need for improved multi-model approaches with a suite of ESMs and niche models forming the basis for uncertainty around projected impacts. Ensemble projections show the potential for major shifts in future distributions. Therefore, rigorous future projections are important for informing climate adaptation efforts.

Comparing models using air and water temperature to forecast an aquatic invasive species response to climate change

AbstractUnderstanding invasive species spread and projecting how distributions will respond to climate change is a central task for ecologists. Typically, current and projected air temperatures are used to forecast future distributions of invasive species based on climate matching in an ecological niche modeling approach. While this approach was originally developed for terrestrial species, it has also been widely applied to aquatic species even though aquatic species do not experience air temperatures directly. In the case of lakes, species respond to lake thermal regimes, which reflect the interaction of climate and lake attributes such as depth, size, and clarity. The result is that adjacent waterbodies can differ notably in thermal regime. Given these obvious limitations of modeling aquatic species distributions using climate data, we take advantage of recent advances in simulating lake thermal regimes to model the distributions of invasive spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii) for current and projected future climates in the upper Midwest of the USA. We compared predictions and future projections from models based on modeled air temperatures with models based on modeled water temperature. All models predicted that the number of suitable lakes in the region will decrease with climate change. Models based on air and water temperature differed dramatically in the extent of this decrease. The air temperature model predicted 89% of study lakes to be suitable, with suitability declining dramatically in the late century with climate warming to just a single suitable lake. Lake suitability predictions from the water temperature model declined to a much lesser degree with warming (42% of lakes were predicted to be suitable, declining to 19% in the late century) and were more spatially independent. Our results expose the limitations of using air temperatures to model habitat suitability for aquatic species, and our study further highlights the importance of understanding lake‐specific responses to climate when assessing aquatic species responses to climate change. While we project a contraction in the potential range of Bythotrephes with warming in the study region, we anticipate that Bythotrephes will likely continue to expand into new lakes that will remain suitable in the following decades.

Late Quaternary Range Dynamics in the Common Grackle Quiscalus quiscula

Climate variability is one of the most important forces affecting the distributional range dynamics of species and consequentially plays a significant role in shaping biogeographic patterns. This study aims to infer the role of climate in the recent evolutionary history of the Common Grackle Quiscalus quiscula. Studies of other migratory North American birds have shown that their populations were isolated in two or three refugia in southern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In contrast, preliminary genetic work suggest that Common Grackles may have occupied a single refugium during that time. They subsequently became widespread and northern populations evolved highly migratory behaviour. We used an ecological niche modelling approach that involved the use of three general climate models for the past (the LGM, approximately 22000 years before present) and for present environmental conditions to identify climatically stable areas. Extrapolations to the past showed contraction to a large continuous refugium located in the southern part of North America, and projection to the present showed expansion that covers much of eastern and middle North America. The most important bioclimatic variable for model predictions was annual mean temperature, which explained 74% of the variation in the model. Results suggest that the Common Grackle has expanded its distributional range by more than 300% after the LGM.

The Origin of Isolated Populations of the Mountain Weevil, Liparus glabrirostris-The Flagship Species for Riparian Habitats.

Liparus glabrirostris is one of the largest European weevils, and it has been recently proposed as the flagship species for threatened riparian habitats in the mountains. For effective conservation of its populations (and associated habitats), it is crucial to understand its history, contemporary distribution, genetic diversity and predict changes in the range, including its highly isolated populations on the Baltic coast. Here, we examined numerous populations of L. glabrirostris across almost the entire species range using phylogeography and species niche modeling (SNM) approaches. Analyses of mtDNA and nucDNA markers revealed the existence of 2 major mitochondrial lineages generally separated between 1) the Alpine region and 2) the Bohemian Massif, the Carpathians, and the Baltic coast areas. Genetic diversity in nuclear genes was more complicated with no clear division between populations. The origin of Baltic populations was derived from the Carpathians, but there were probably multiple expansion events to the north. SNM suggested the existence of glacial refugia for L. glabrirostris, mainly in the Alps and the Southern Carpathians. Current predictions of species range were found to be generally congruent with zoogeographic data; however, the Baltic coast was not really supported as a suitable area for L. glabrirostris. An important prediction of future distribution (2050-2070 CE) suggests a shrinkage of the L. glabrirostris range and extinction of some of its populations (particularly those isolated on lower altitudes). Based on the aforementioned data, proposals for the protection of this species are proposed, including the designation of several evolutionary units of conservation importance.

Impact of climate on ecology and suitable habitat of Garcinia kola heckel in Nigeria

Garcinia kola is an indigenous multipurpose tree species, with significant cultural value and medical benefits, commonly found in the tropical rain forest zone of West and Central Africa. The species has been reported to be over-used and are now classified as vulnerable species close to commercial extinction. Hence, requires immediate conservation action. This study assessed the impact of climate on habitat for cultivation of G. kola in Nigeria. Ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the current geographical range and predicts the future distribution of G. kola in Nigeria, using the nineteen (19) bioclimatic environment layers at a 30 ′secs resolution. Two climate models were used (HadGEM2-ES and CNRM-CM5) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios as predictor variables for projections of the potential geographical range of this species for 2050 horizon. Results revealed that about 397,094 km2 area, corresponding to 43.6% of Nigeria land surface, are currently suitable for cultivating G. kola. The future projections showed a significant decrease in area suitable for propagating G. kola under the RCP scenarios used in the two climate models. HadGEM2-ES predicts 27.2 and 26.1% loss of suitable habitats under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by 2050 while CNRM-CM5 projects 26.7 and 35.8% decrease for the corresponding RCPs. Furthermore, the HadGEM2-ES predicts that 149,365 and 159,384 km2 corresponding to 16.4% and 17.5% of total land area will be suitable for cultivation of G. kola in Nigeria under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The model results showed that climate change would have significant influence on the future suitable habitat of G. kola in Nigeria and the species is more subservient in moist, humid area and some part of derived savanna zone in Nigeria. The results underscore the significant influences of climate change on the ecology of G. kola. Based on these results, immediate action should be initiated to conserve this valued species and secure their inherent agro-ecosystems services

Mapping Brazilian spotted fever: Linking etiological agent, vectors, and hosts

Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a highly lethal disease in southeastern Brazil. BSF is caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii and is transmitted by the bites of the tick of the genus Amblyomma. The spatial distribution of BSF risk areas is not well known in the country given the complexity of the transmission cycle. This study used the ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to anticipate the potential distribution of the etiological agent (Rickettsia rickettsii), vectors (Amblyomma sculptum and A. dubitatum), and hosts (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, Didelphis aurita, and D. marsupialis) of BSF in Brazil. We compiled occurrence records for all vectors, hosts, and BSF from our own field surveillance, online repositories, and literature. ENM identified BSF risk areas in southeastern and southern Brazil, and anticipated other dispersed suitable areas in the western, central, and northeastern coast regions of Brazil. Tick vectors and mammalian hosts were confined to these same areas; however, host species showed broader suitability in northern Brazil. All species ENMs performed significantly better than random expectations. We also tested the BSF prediction based on 253 additional independent cases identified in our surveillance; the model anticipated 251 out of 253 of these independent cases. Background similarity tests comparing the ENMs of R. rickettsii, tick vectors, and mammalian hosts were unable to reject null hypotheses of niche similarity. Finally, we observed close coincidence between independent BSF cases, and areas suitable for combinations of vectors and hosts, reflecting the ability of these model pairs to anticipate the distribution of BSF cases across Brazil.

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa.

BackgroundBacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d’Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach.Methodology/Principal findingsGeoreferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche—and consequently in geographic distribution—between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens.

Environmental Drivers and Distribution Patterns of Carnivoran Assemblages (Mammalia: Carnivora) in the Americas: Past to Present

Understanding species distributions and the variation of assemblage structure in time and space are fundamental goals of biogeography and ecology. Here, we use an ecological niche modeling and macroecological approach in order to assess whether constraints patterns in carnivoran richness and composition structures in replicated assemblages through time and space should reflect environmental filtering through ecological niche constraints from the Last Inter-glacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present (C) time. Our results suggest a diverse distribution of carnivoran co-occurrence patterns at the continental scale as a result of spatial climatic variation as an important driver constrained by the ecological niches of the species. This influence was an important factor restructuring assemblages (more directly on richness than composition patterns) not only at the continental level, but also from regional and local scales and this influence was geographically different throughout the space in the continent. These climatic restrictions and disruption of the niche during the environmental changes at the LIG-LGM-C transition show a considerable shift in assemblage richness and composition across the Americas, which suggests an environmental filtering mainly during the LGM, explaining between 30 and 75% of these variations through space and time, with more accentuated changes in North than South America. LGM was likely to be critical in species functional adaptation and distribution and therefore on assemblage structuring and rearranging from continental to local scales through time in the continent. Still, extinction processes are the result of many interacting factors, where climate is just one part of the picture.

Current and future global potential distribution of the fruit fly Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

AbstractDrosophila suzukii (Matsumura) (Diptera: Drosophilidae) is a pest that causes severe damage to various fruits, generating economic losses. We evaluated its potential geographic distribution under current and future climatic conditions using an ecological niche modelling approach, based on the largest available database on occurrence records for this species. Additionally, we identified areas of risk to agricultural land and crops. Predictions under current climatic conditions indicated that this species is likely to be present across broad swaths of the United States of America, southeastern Asia, southeastern Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. We predict considerable expansion of its potential range for 2050, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, because of ongoing climate change, under both low and high emissions scenarios.

Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling.

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.

Mapping suitability for rice production in inland valley landscapes in Benin and Togo using environmental niche modeling

Inland valleys (IVs) in Africa are important landscapes for rice cultivation and are targeted by national governments to attain self-sufficiency. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of IVs suitability at the national scale. In the present study, we developed an ensemble model approach to characterize the IVs suitability for rainfed lowland rice using 4 machine learning algorithms based on environmental niche modeling (ENM) with presence-only data and background sample, namely Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Maximum Entropy (MAXNT) and Random Forest (RF). We used a set of predictors that were grouped under climatic variables, agricultural water productivity and soil water content, soil chemical properties, soil physical properties, vegetation cover, and socio-economic variables. The Area Under the Curves (AUC) evaluation metrics for both training and testing were respectively 0.999 and 0.873 for BRT, 0.866 and 0.816 for GLM, 0.948 and 0.861 for MAXENT and 0.911 and 0.878 for RF. Results showed that proximity of inland valleys to roads and urban centers, elevation, soil water holding capacity, bulk density, vegetation index, gross biomass water productivity, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, annual precipitation, and total phosphorus among others were major predictors of IVs suitability for rainfed lowland rice. Suitable IVs areas were estimated at 155,000–225,000 Ha in Togo and 351,000–406,000 Ha in Benin. We estimated that 53.8% of the suitable IVs area is needed in Togo to attain self-sufficiency in rice while 60.1% of the suitable IVs area is needed in Benin to attain self-sufficiency in rice. These results demonstrated the effectiveness of an ensemble environmental niche modeling approach that combines the strengths of several models.

The effect of seasonal variation on the activity patterns of the American black bear: an ecological niche modeling approach

AbstractThe American black bear (Ursus americanus) has very plastic activity patterns that maximize its ability to adapt to changing environments. Hibernation length is positively correlated with latitude, where northern populations remain in hibernation for up to 5 months during the winter; however, the species may not hibernate at all in its southern range. Several studies have focused on the description of the species’ ecology from specific locations; however, the macroecological perspective of the seasonal activity in black bears has not been explored. Using ecological niche models and temporal climate transfers, we tested for a correlation between the 971 monthly activity records we obtained for this species within its whole distribution and monthly climatic conditions. We observed that there was a high degree of geographic overlap among the monthly potential transferred areas and the monthly presence locality records. Thus, we suggest that climate is one of the main factors affecting the cycles of activity of this species and explains its hibernation patterns.

Do selfing species have greater niche breadth? Support from ecological niche modeling.

We explore the relationship between plant mating system (selfing or outcrossing) and niche breadth to gain new insights into processes that drive species distributions. Using a comparative approach with highly selfing versus highly outcrossing sister species, we test the extent to which: (1) species pairs have evolved significant niche divergence and less niche overlap, (2) selfers have wider niche breadths than outcrossers or vice versa, and (3) niches of selfers and outcrossers are defined by significant differences in environmental variables. We applied predictive ecological niche modeling approaches to estimate and contrast niche divergence, overlap and breadth, and to identify key environmental variables associated with each species' niche for seven sister species with divergent mating systems. Data from 4862 geo-referenced herbarium occurrence records were compiled for 14 species in Collinsia and Tonella (Plantaginaceae) and 19 environmental variables associated with each record. We found sister species display significant niche divergence, though not as a function of divergence time, and overall, selfers have significantly wider niche breadths compared to their outcrossing sisters. Our results suggest that a selfing mating system likely contributes to the greater capacity to reach, reproduce, establish, and adapt to new habitats, which increases niche breadth of selfers.

Genomic assessment of local adaptation in dwarf birch to inform assisted gene flow.

When populations of a rare species are small, isolated and declining under climate change, some populations may become locally maladapted. Detecting this maladaptation may allow effective rapid conservation interventions, even if based on incomplete knowledge. Population maladaptation may be estimated by finding genome–environment associations (GEA) between allele frequencies and environmental variables across a local species range, and identifying populations whose allele frequencies do not fit with these trends. We can then design assisted gene flow strategies for maladapted populations, to adjust their allele frequencies, entailing lower levels of intervention than with undirected conservation action. Here, we investigate this strategy in Scottish populations of the montane plant dwarf birch (Betula nana). In genome‐wide restriction site‐associated single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, we found 267 significant associations between SNP loci and environmental variables. We ranked populations by maladaptation estimated using allele frequency deviation from the general trends at these loci; this gave a different prioritization for conservation action than the Shapely Index, which seeks to preserve rare neutral variation. Populations estimated to be maladapted in their allele frequencies at loci associated with annual mean temperature were found to have reduced catkin production. Using an environmental niche modelling (ENM) approach, we found annual mean temperature (35%), and mean diurnal range (15%), to be important predictors of the dwarf birch distribution. Intriguingly, there was a significant correlation between the number of loci associated with each environmental variable in the GEA and the importance of that variable in the ENM. Together, these results suggest that the same environmental variables determine both adaptive genetic variation and species range in Scottish dwarf birch. We suggest an assisted gene flow strategy that aims to maximize the local adaptation of dwarf birch populations under climate change by matching allele frequencies to current and future environments.

The relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors on suitable habitat of Old World fruit bats under current and future climate scenarios

There is growing evidence that biotic factors such as predator-prey interactions play significant roles in driving species distribution across large spatial scales. The relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution, however, may change under climate change. We investigated the relative influence of abiotic and biotic variables on the potential current and future distributions of three fruit bat species, Epomophorus angolensis (Gray, 1870), E. wahlbergi (Sundevall, 1846) and Rousettus aegyptiacus (E. Geoffroy St.-Hilaire, 1810), in southern Africa. We tested three hypotheses, namely that bat species’ distribution is primarily driven by (1) productivity; (2) physiological tolerance to climate; and (3) biotic interactions, specifically fig distribution. We adopted an ensemble niche modelling approach to project the suitable habitat of fruit bat species for current and future climate scenarios, and assessed variable importance in the models using a randomised variable shuffle procedure. We predicted that both biotic and abiotic factors influence suitable habitat of fruit bats, the relative influence of factors on habitat suitability of bat species are taxon specific, and the relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors will change from current to future climate scenarios. Abiotic variables associated with productivity were the primary determinants of habitat suitability for E. wahlbergi and E. angolensis under both current and future conditions. By contrast, suitable habitat of R. aegyptiacus was primarily mediated by temperature under current climatic conditions yet by freestanding fig distribution under both moderate and extreme future climate change scenarios. Freestanding fig distribution was also the most significant factor of habitat suitability for E. angolensis under the extreme future climate change scenario. Our results were congruent with our predictions and suggest that biotic variables play important roles in determining habitat suitability of species at relatively large spatial scales, contrary to the conventional assumptions of the Grinnellian niche.

A complex pattern of post‐divergence expansion, contraction, introgression, and asynchronous responses to Pleistocene climate changes in two Dipelta sister species from western China

AbstractThe well‐known vicariance and dispersal models dominate in understanding the allopatric pattern for related species and presume the simultaneous occurrence of speciation and biogeographic events. However, the formation of allopatry could postdate the species divergence. We examined this hypothesis using DNA sequence data from three chloroplast fragments and five nuclear loci of Dipelta floribunda Maxim. and D. yunnanensis Franch, two shrub species with the circum Sichuan Basin distribution, combining the climatic niche modeling approach. The best‐fit model supported by the approximate Bayesian computation analysis indicated that D. floribunda and D. yunnanensis diverged during the mid‐Pleistocene period, consistent with the largest glacial period in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The historically interspecific gene flow was identified, but seemed to have ceased after the last interglacial period, when the range of D. floribunda moved northward from the south of the Sichuan Basin. Furthermore, populations of D. floribunda had expanded obviously in the north of the Sichuan Basin after the last glacial maximum (LGM). Relatively, the range of D. yunnanensis expanded before the LGM, and reduced during the post‐LGM especially in the north of the Sichuan Basin, reflecting the asynchronous responses of related species to contemporary climate changes. Our results suggested that complex topography should be considered in understanding distributional patterns, even for closely related species and their demographic responses.

Are buffalograss (Buchloë dactyloides) cytotypes spatially and ecologically differentiated?

Although autopolyploidy is common among dominant Great Plains grasses, the distribution of cytotypes within a given species is typically poorly understood. This study aims to establish the geographic distribution of cytotypes within buffalograss (Buchloë dactyloides) and to assess whether individual cytotypes have differing ecological tolerances. A range-wide set of 578 B. dactyloides individuals was obtained through field collecting and sampling from herbarium specimens. The cytotype of each sample was estimated by determining allele numbers at 13 simple sequence repeat loci, a strategy that was assessed by comparing estimated to known cytotype in 79 chromosome-counted samples. Ecological differentiation between the dominant tetraploid and hexaploid cytotypes was assessed with analyses of macroclimatic variables. Simple sequence repeat variation accurately estimated cytotype in 89% of samples from which a chromosome count had been obtained. Applying this approach to samples of unknown ploidy established that diploids and pentaploids are rare, with the common tetraploid and hexaploid cytotypes generally occurring in sites to the north/west (tetraploid) or south/east (hexaploid) portions of the species range. Both MANOVA and niche modeling approaches identified significant but subtle differences in macroclimatic conditions at the set of locations occupied by these two dominant cytotypes. Incorporating chromosome count vouchers and cytotype-estimated herbarium records allowed us to perform the largest study of cytotype niche differentiation to date. Buffalograss cytotypes differ greatly in frequency, the common tetraploid and hexaploid cytotypes are non-randomly distributed, and these two cytotypes are subtly ecologically differentiated.

Primary Biodiversity Data Gaps Assessment and Data Use for Decision-making: A West African Experience

Primary biodiversity data, data documenting presences of particular species at particular sites at a point in time, available in standard digital formats, provide the basis for many quantitative studies that can inform effective and reliable national, regional, and global biodiversity conservation decisions. However, these datasets are often unavailable, incomplete, or unevenly distributed across regions and landscapes. We assessed the survey completeness and gaps in current knowledge of birds of West Africa, using digital, accessible primary biodiversity data, obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and eBird. Additionally, using ecological niche modeling approaches, we modeled the current and potential future geographic distributions of a diverse suite of range-restricted and ecologically important bird species, and used the resulting models to identify priority areas for conservation and future surveys (Fig. 1). The survey completeness and gap analyses revealed marked spatial, seasonal, and temporal (historical) gaps and biases in the coverage of bird records across the region (Fig. 1). Well-surveyed sites were clustered around points of access such as major cities, roads, and national reserves or parks, mainly in Ghana, The Gambia, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Cameroon (Fig. 1). For our distributional analysis, we found broad present-day potential distributions with respect to climate. Future potential distributions, taking into account climate change processes, tended to be still-broader and more inclusive than present-day distributions, so climate-change-driven range losses and gains were minimal. Our models identified Liberia, southeastern Sierra Leone, southwestern Côte d’Ivoire, and southwestern Ghana to have high climate suitability in the present and in the future for most species. These results illustrate the spatial and temporal biases and gaps in West African bird data, and emphasize the need to promote high-quality biodiversity data mobilization and publication in West Africa and by extension the developing world. To address these biases at the regional level, research institutions and individuals need to engage in more systematic planning and biodiversity research, taking into account the potential for spatial, temporal, and seasonal biases.