Climate change will likely facilitate invasion of Asian orchid Eulophia graminea into new areas

Abstract

Climate change plays an increasing role in the global biodiversity crisis. Alteration in local climatic conditions not only can negatively affect native biodiversity but also can accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive species. In this study the ecological niche modelling approach was used to evaluate possible changes in the distribution of suitable niches of invasive orchid Eulophia graminea within its native (Asia) and non-native geographical range (America, Australia). We mapped the current potential range of this species and analysed three various projections of future climate (for 2100) each with four different climate change scenarios (SSPs). Calculated niche overlap indexes indicated low similarity of niches occupied by native and invasive populations of E. graminea and Australian populations seem to be the most unique, while American and Asian groups share partially similar niches. The occurrence of the American population of E. graminea was correlated especially with the temperature seasonality, while the Asian and Australian populations with annual precipitation and precipitation of the wettest quarter. As indicated in our analyses within Asia and America, E. graminea does not occupy all climatically suitable niches. On the other hand, in Australia the species studied already occupies all appropriate niche space. Climate change will likely be favorable for species studied to expand its range if the biotic components of its niche space (e.g., mycorrhizal fungi) will respond similarly. The most significant range expansion is predicted to occur in Australia which is interesting considering the marginally suitable habitats that E. graminea currently occupies.