Niche Modelling Techniques Research Articles

From the cage to the wild: introductions of Psittaciformes to Puerto Rico.

Introduced psittacine birds can become highly invasive. In this study, we assessed invasions of Psittaciformes in Puerto Rico. We reviewed the literature, public databases, citizen science records, and performed in situ population surveys across the island to determine the historical and current status and distribution of psittacine species. We used count data from Ebird to determine population trends. For species whose populations were increasing, we modelled their potential distribution using niche modeling techniques. We found 46 Psittaciformes in Puerto Rico, of which 26% are only present as pets, at least 29 species have been reported in the wild, and of those, there is evidence that at least 12 species are breeding. Our results indicate that most introduced species which have been detected as established still persist, although mostly in localized areas and small populations. Clear evidence of invasiveness was found for Brotogeris versicolurus and Myiopsitta monachus, which have greatly expanded their range in recent years. Psittacara erythrogenys and Eupsittacula canicularis also showed population increases, although to a lesser degree. The niche models predicted suitable areas for the four species, and also indicate the potential for range expansion. We discuss the factors leading to invasion success, assess the potential impacts, and we discuss possible management strategies and research prospects.

Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America.

Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland).

Zika: Probability of establishment of its vector, Aedes aegypti, in Chile

The Zika virus has raised world alarm in recent years, representing a major public health problem. In this study we evaluated the potential risk of exposure to Zika virus in Chile, associated with the probability of establishment of the vector Aedes aegypti in the country. Niche modelling techniques were used to project the bioclimatic requirements of the vector (global niches), identifying zones of high suitability for the species within the country. Then, the potential distribution of the vector in Chile was overlapped with the human population density, estimating the risk associated to the potential co-occurrence of both in a spatially explicit manner. We identified bioclimatic suitability for A. aegypti in continental Chile, from the northern tropical area to temperate regions, mainly in coastal zones. The exposed population could reach 1.8 million people, with 1.3 million in a medium level of potential risk and 21,000 in a high level. These results support that there is a significant probability of success for the Zika virus main vector to colonize continental Chile in case of an introduction. Therefore, prevention, monitoring, and control play an important role in avoiding the arrival of this vector to our country.

Prioritisation of native legume species for further evaluation as potential forage crops in water-limited agricultural systems in South Africa.

In the face of climate change, identification of forage species suitable for dryland farming under low rainfall conditions in South Africa is needed. Currently, there are only a limited number of forage species suitable for dryland farming under such conditions. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritise native legume species that could potentially be used in dryland farming systems in water-limited agro-ecosystems in South Africa. Using a combination of ecological niche modelling techniques, plant functional traits, and indigenous knowledge, 18 perennial herbaceous or stem-woody legume species were prioritised for further evaluation as potential fodder species within water-limited agricultural areas. These species will be evaluated further for their forage quality and their ability to survive and produce enough biomass under water limitation and poor edaphic conditions.

Extinction risk or lack of sampling in a threatened species: Genetic structure and environmental suitability of the neotropical frog Pristimantis penelopus (Anura: Craugastoridae)

IUCN Red Lists have been a valuable tool to prioritize conservation plans in endemic neotropical frogs. However, many areas in this region are poorly known in terms of their diversity and endemism. Based on examined museum specimens of the threatened species Pristimantis penelopus we revised its geographic distribution and determined the habitat suitability using niche modeling techniques. Using a mitochondrial fragment of COI gene, we determine the phylogenetic position and the extent of the genetic variation across its distribution in Colombia. We present the first records of P. penelopus for the Cordillera Oriental, the western versant of Cordillera Occidental and the northern portion of the Cauca river basin. Based on the molecular phylogenetic analysis, Pristimantis penelopus belongs to the P. ridens series sensu Padial et al. (2014). The mean of intraspecific genetic variation is 2.1% and the variation among population ranges between 2.3 and 3.5%. The genetic distance between the western populations and the Magdalena Valley populations suggests a potential phylogeographic break in northwestern Antioquia. We expand the realized distribution by 258 kilometers north, 200 km east and 223 km northwest. Based on our results and according to the IUCN criteria we propose a new category for the species and highlight the need to increase the surveys in poorly known regions to better understand the geographic distribution and conservation status of listed species.

Revealing hidden species diversity in closely related species using nuclear SNPs, SSRs and DNA sequences - a case study in the tree genus Milicia.

BackgroundSpecies delimitation in closely related plant taxa can be challenging because (i) reproductive barriers are not always congruent with morphological differentiation, (ii) use of plastid sequences might lead to misinterpretation, (iii) rare species might not be sampled. We revisited molecular-based species delimitation in the African genus Milicia, currently divided into M. regia (West Africa) and M. excelsa (from West to East Africa). We used 435 samples collected in West, Central and East Africa. We genotyped SNP and SSR loci to identify genetic clusters, and sequenced two plastid regions (psbA-trnH, trnC-ycf6) and a nuclear gene (At103) to confirm species’ divergence and compare species delimitation methods. We also examined whether ecological niche differentiation was congruent with sampled genetic structure.ResultsWest African M. regia, West African and East African M. excelsa samples constituted three well distinct genetic clusters according to SNPs and SSRs. In Central Africa, two genetic clusters were consistently inferred by both types of markers, while a few scattered samples, sympatric with the preceding clusters but exhibiting leaf traits of M. regia, were grouped with the West African M. regia cluster based on SNPs or formed a distinct cluster based on SSRs. SSR results were confirmed by sequence data from the nuclear region At103 which revealed three distinct ‘Fields For Recombination’ corresponding to (i) West African M. regia, (ii) Central African samples with leaf traits of M. regia, and (iii) all M. excelsa samples. None of the plastid sequences provide indication of distinct clades of the three species-like units. Niche modelling techniques yielded a significant correlation between niche overlap and genetic distance.ConclusionsOur genetic data suggest that three species of Milicia could be recognized. It is surprising that the occurrence of two species in Central Africa was not reported for this well-known timber tree. Globally, our work highlights the importance of collecting samples in a systematic way and the need for combining different nuclear markers when dealing with species complexes. Recognizing cryptic species is particularly crucial for economically exploited species because some hidden taxa might actually be endangered as they are merged with more abundant species.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0831-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ecological niche modeling for conservation planning of an endemic snail in the verge of becoming a pest in cardamom plantations in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot.

Conservation managers and policy makers are often confronted with a challenging dilemma of devising suitable strategies to maintain agricultural productivity while conserving endemic species that at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops. Identification of environmental factors conducive to species range expansion for forecasting species distribution patterns will play a central role in devising management strategies to minimize the conflict between the agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results of a study that predicts the distribution of Indrella ampulla, a snail endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, which is becoming a pest in cardamom (Ellettaria cardamomum) plantations. We determined the distribution patterns and niche overlap between I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling techniques under current and future (2020–2080) climatic scenarios. The results showed that climatic (precipitation of coldest quarter and isothermality) and soil (cation exchange capacity of soil [CEC]) parameters are major factors that determine the distribution of I. ampulla in Western Ghats. The model predicted cardamom cultivation areas in southern Western Ghats are highly sensitive to invasion of I. ampulla under both present and future climatic conditions. While the land area in the central Western Ghats is predicted to become unsuitable for I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum in future, we found 71% of the Western Ghats land area is suitable for Ellettaria cardamomum cultivation and 45% suitable for I. ampulla, with an overlap of 35% between two species. The resulting distribution maps are invaluable for policy makers and conservation managers to design and implement management strategies minimizing the conflicts to sustain agricultural productivity while maintaining biodiversity in the region.

Realized climate niche breadth varies with population trend and distribution in North American birds

AbstractAimEcological niche theory states that realized niche breadth should increase with population growth. This relationship has been studied extensively in the context of density‐dependent habitat selection, and there is evidence that animal populations at higher density occupy a wider range of vegetation types. To our knowledge, no previous studies have investigated the relationship between population growth and climate niche breadth (i.e. the range of climatic conditions occupied). Here we aim to estimate the influence of population trend, as well as changes in distribution, on realized climate niche breadth.LocationNorth America.MethodsWe estimated changes in realized climate niche breadth and distribution between 1980 and 2012 for 46 bird species using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and standard ecological niche modelling techniques. We analysed changes in niche breadth in relation to population trends and distributional changes from the BBS for these same species.ResultsChanges in realized climate niche breadth were significantly and positively associated with population growth, as reflected by BBS population trends, and with changes in distributional extent. Using variance partitioning, we showed that 44.2% of the variation in change in niche breadth can be explained by population trend, and that roughly half of this was independent of changes in distribution.ConclusionsRealized climate niche breadth is variable on an ecological time‐scale as a function of population trend. Mechanisms associated with changes in distribution and those acting within current species range limits appear to be equally important in driving this relationship. Observed changes in niche breadth may violate distribution modelling assumptions of niche conservatism. Studying how population growth influences realized climate niche breadth is therefore important for understanding dynamic species distributions, responses to climate change and our ability to model future species distributions.

Geographic potential of disease caused by Ebola and Marburg viruses in Africa

Filoviruses represent a significant public health threat worldwide. West Africa recently experienced the largest-scale and most complex filovirus outbreak yet known, which underlines the need for a predictive understanding of the geographic distribution and potential for transmission to humans of these viruses. Here, we used ecological niche modeling techniques to understand the relationship between known filovirus occurrences and environmental characteristics. Our study derived a picture of the potential transmission geography of Ebola virus species and Marburg, paired with views of the spatial uncertainty associated with model-to-model variation in our predictions. We found that filovirus species have diverged ecologically, but only three species are sufficiently well known that models could be developed with significant predictive power. We quantified uncertainty in predictions, assessed potential for outbreaks outside of known transmission areas, and highlighted the Ethiopian Highlands and scattered areas across East Africa as additional potentially unrecognized transmission areas.

Mapping the ecological dimensions and potential distributions of endangered relic shrubs in western Ordos biodiversity center.

Potential distributions of endemic relic shrubs in western Ordos were poorly mapped, which hindered our implementation of proper conservation. Here we investigated the applicability of ecological niche modeling for endangered relic shrubs to detect areas of priority for biodiversity conservation and analyze differences in ecological niche spaces used by relic shrubs. We applied ordination and niche modeling techniques to assess main environmental drivers of five endemic relic shrubs in western Ordos, namely, Ammopiptanthus mongolicus, Amygdalus mongolica, Helianthemum songaricum, Potaninia mongolica, and Tetraena mongolica. We calculated niche overlap metrics in gridded environmental spaces and compared geographical projections of ecological niches to determine similarities and differences of niches occupied by relic shrubs. All studied taxa presented different responses to environmental factors, which resulted in a unique combination of niche conditions. Precipitation availability and soil quality characteristics play important roles in the distributions of most shrubs. Each relic shrub is constrained by a unique set of environmental conditions, the distribution of one species cannot be implied by the distribution of another, highlighting the inadequacy of one-fits-all type of conservation measure. Our stacked habitat suitability maps revealed regions around Yellow River, which are highly suitable for most species, thereby providing high conservation value.

Bryophyte communities of Mediterranean Europe: a first approach to model their potential distribution in highly seasonal rivers

Mediterranean watercourses are among the most threatened ecosystems worldwide, being increasingly important to understand environmental drivers of biotic assemblages. Our aim was to provide a comprehensive picture of bryophyte communities in Mediterranean rivers and to determine the environmental factors that influence their distribution. We used floristic data collected for inter-calibration purposes under the European Water Framework Directive and River Habitat Survey, from 474 river reaches in six countries of the European Mediterranean basin. We analysed data through classification, ordination and environmental niche modelling techniques, and classified taxa according to biogeographic and aquatic habitat frameworks developed specifically for bryophytes. These analyses revealed four types of communities influenced by spatio-temporal precipitation patterns, altitude and water chemistry factors, most notably calcium and manganese. Community types are compositionally differentiated, although they share some core taxa and show an overall tendency to have several temperate and exclusively aquatic taxa despite the intermittent nature of water flow in highly seasonal Mediterranean rivers. The modelling approach can be improved at a more local scale when more bryological data and higher-resolution environmental information become available. Given future scenarios of climate change and human alteration of hydrological regimes, broader scales studies are needed to monitor shifts in bryophyte communities.

Alpine endemic spiders shed light on the origin and evolution of subterranean species.

We designed a comparative study to unravel the phylogeography of two Alpine endemic spiders characterized by a different degree of adaptation to subterranean life: Troglohyphantes vignai (Araneae, Linyphiidae) and Pimoa rupicola (Araneae, Pimoidae), the latter showing minor adaptation to hypogean life. We sampled populations of the model species in caves and other subterranean habitats across their known geographical range in the Western Alps. By combining phylogeographic inferences and Ecological Niche Modeling techniques, we inferred the biogeographic scenario that led to the present day population structure of the two species. According to our divergent time estimates and relative uncertainties, the isolation of T. vignai and P. rupicola from their northern sister groups was tracked back to Middle–Late Miocene. Furthermore, the fingerprint left by Pleistocene glaciations on the population structure revealed by the genetic data, led to the hypothesis that a progressive adaptation to subterranean habitats occurred in T. vignai, followed by strong population isolation. On the other hand, P. rupicola underwent a remarkable genetic bottleneck during the Pleistocene glaciations, that shaped its present population structure. It seems likely that such shallow population structure is both the result of the minor degree of specialization to hypogean life and the higher dispersal ability characterizing this species. The simultaneous study of overlapping spider species showing different levels of adaptation to hypogean life, disclosed a new way to clarify patterns of biological diversification and to understand the effects of past climatic shift on the subterranean biodiversity.

Progressively approaching the distribution of Passiflora ischnoclada (Passifloraceae) from a single occurrence record

Until recently, Passiflora ischnoclada was only known from a single occurrence record. In this paper we describe how different ecological niche modelling techniques were successively used to generate better potential distribution models for the species and guide field work. At each step, new records were found until the species’ real distribution was approximated based on a model ensemble created with five different algorithms. The estimated distribution is concentrated on a single area of 84 km2 where the species is considered endangered.

Leptospirosis in Mexico: Epidemiology and Potential Distribution of Human Cases.

BackgroundLeptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000–2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25–44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates.Conclusions/SignificanceIn conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease.

Assessment of climatically suitable area for Syrmaticus reevesii under climate change

Global climate change is one of the major threats to biodiversity. Global warming caused by the excess emission of greenhouse gases affects the distribution and physiology of species, and threatens their survival. Thus, predicting and evaluating the consequences of changing climates on species’ distributions is important for biodiversity conservation. The goal of our study was to assess the influence of future climate scenarios on the extent and geographic location of climatically suitable areas for Reeves’s pheasant Syrmaticus reevesii, a species endemic to China, using geographic information systems and ecological niche modeling techniques. We compared model prediction under present climate with the species’ historical range and land-cover data, both of which enable a plausible assessment of present-day climatically suitable areas for the species. The areas predicted suitable under future climates showed differences among emission scenarios, but several common trends emerged. Specifically, our results indicated that future climatically suitable area for S. reevesii would decrease and shift to higher altitudes, and the geographic centroids of the climatically suitable areas would mainly move northwest. Additionally, we assessed future changes of climatically suitable areas in the nature reserves where S. reevesii is known to occur, and provided suggestions for conserving the species under climate change scenarios.

GEOGRAPHIC AND ECOLOGICAL AMPLITUDE IN THE NECTARIVOROUS BAT ANOURA FISTULATA (PYHLLOSTOMIDAE: GLOSSOPHAGINAE)

The wide range of feeding habits among phyllostomid bats has resulted in the selection of unique and contrasting morphological attributes. It has been suggested that nectarivorous bat species co-evolve with the plants they use as primary source of food, and changes in morphology and behavior in the bat, are in some way directed by changes in morphology and phenological cycles of the plants. The nectarivorous bat Anoura fistulata (Pyhllostomidae: Glossophaginae) has the longest tongue in proportion to body size among mammals; feature that apparently allows the species to take nectar from flowers with long corollas, some of them typical of highland ecosystems. In spite of this unique morphological adaptation, little is known on the ecological requirements of the species. Herein, Geographic Information System-based analyses and niche modeling techniques were applied to investigate the geographic and ecological niche breath of A. fistulata. We also introduce the first Bolivian record of the species collected at Hernando Siles, Department of Chuquisaca (20°10’0.0’’ S, 64°15’0.00’’ W, at 1,524 m), which represents a remarkable extension in the distribution of the species of more than 7°. Our analyses revealed that A. fistulata occurs in contrasting ecosystems, from Andean montane and pre-montane moist forest in Western Ecuador and Central Colombia, up to arid and semiarid environments in southern Colombia and Bolivia. Anoura fistulata occurs across a wide elevational range between 1,175 and 2,510 m, which is well represented along the geologic unit of the Batholith of Ecuador. A constriction of this elevational belt along the Peruvian Punas and Yungas was suggested as a natural barrier for the establishment of A. fistulata. The Peruvian Punas and Yungas isolate A. fistulata of Bolivia from records in the northern range of the distribution of the species.

Combining Niche Modelling, Land-Use Change, and Genetic Information to Assess the Conservation Status ofPouteria splendensPopulations in Central Chile

To assess the conservation status of a species with little ecological information is usually a challenging process.Pouteria splendensis an endemic shrub of the coastal range of Central Chile currently classified as lower risk (LR) by IUCN (version 2.3). Knowledge about this species is extremely limited. CurrentlyP. splendensis only found in two small and isolated populations, which are thought to be remaining populations of an originally large metapopulation. However, there is no evidence to support this hypothesis, limiting our ability to gauge the real current conservation status of this species. In this study we combine niche modelling, land-use information, and genetic techniques to test the metapopulation hypothesis and reassess the conservation status ofP. splendensusing the IUCN criteria. We also evaluated the potential effects of climate change in the species distribution. Our results support the hypothesis of a large metapopulation that was recently fragmented. Future climate could increase the range ofP. splendens; however the high level of fragmentation would preclude colonization processes. We recommend reclassifyingP. splendensas Endangered (EN) and developing strategies to protect the remaining populations. Similar approaches like the presented here could be used to reclassify other species with limited ecological knowledge.

Similar but not equivalent: ecological niche comparison across closely–related Mexican white pines

AbstractAimIn the face of global environmental change, identifying the factors that shape the ecological niches of species and understanding the mechanisms behind them can help to draft effective conservation plans. The differences in the ecological factors that shape species distributions may then help to highlight differences between closely related taxa. We investigate the applicability of ecological niche modelling and the comparison of species distributions in ecological niche space to detect areas with priority for biodiversity conservation and to analyse differences in the ecological niche spaces used by closely related taxa.LocationUnited States of America, Mexico and Central America.MethodsWe apply ordination and ecological niche modelling techniques to assess the main environmental drivers of the distribution of Mexican white pines (Pinus: Pinaceae). Furthermore, we assess the similarities and differences of the ecological niches occupied by closely related taxa. We analyse whether Mexican white pines occupy similar or equivalent ecological niches.ResultsAll the studied taxa presented different responses to the environmental factors, resulting in a unique combination of niche conditions. Our stacked habitat suitability maps highlighted regions in southern Mexico and northern Central America as highly suitable for most species and thus with high conservation value. By quantitatively assessing the niche overlap, similarity and equivalency of Mexican white pines, our results prove that the distribution of one species cannot be implied by the distribution of another, even if these taxa are considered closely related.Main conclusionsThe fact that each Mexican white pine is constrained by a unique set of environmental conditions, and thus, their non‐equivalence of ecological niches has direct implications for conservation as this highlights the inadequacy of one‐fits all type of conservation measure.

Distribución actual y potencial de las cactáceas Ferocactus histrix, Mammillaria bombycina y M. perezdelarosae en el estado de Aguascalientes, México

Las cactáceas en México son un grupo representativo de las zonas áridas que actualmente presenta problemas de conservación debido a la sobreexplotación y el saqueo de los que han sido objeto en todo el país. En este trabajo se reporta la distribución actual de tres especies de cactáceas en el estado de Aguascalientes actualmente sujetas a protección especial según la legislación ambiental federal mexicana (Ferocactus histrix, Mammillaria bombycina y M. perezdelarosae). Se estimó su distribución potencial mediante la técnica de modelado de nicho ecológico. La mayoría de las poblaciones de F. histrix se encontraron en la mitad oeste del estado de Aguascalientes, entre 1750 y 2473 m s.n.m., en cañadas de difícil acceso o en laderas con poca inclinación. Las de M. bombycina fueron encontradas en la parte suroeste del de la entidad, entre 1847 y 2417 m de altitud, en colonias en paredes de cañadas o a ras del suelo cerca de las cañadas. Por último, las de M. perezdelarosae se ubicaron en el suroeste y el centro del estado, en rocas muy expuestas, entre 2024 y 2417 m. El estudio aporta una actualización al conocimiento de la distribución y proporciona nuevos elementos para conocer la condición de conservación de estas especies en Aguascalientes y para buscar estrategias de reintroducción y conservación.

High-resolution ecological niche modelling of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico

The niche of many deep-sea species remains poorly resolved despite decades of seafloor exploration. Without better information on the distribution and habitat preference of key species, a complete understanding of the ecology of deep-sea communities will remain unattain- able. It is increasingly apparent that cold-water corals are among the dominant foundation species in the deep sea, providing both structurally complex habitat and significant ecosystem services. In this study, the niche and distribution of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico was evaluated using the maximum entropy (Maxent) approach. Ecological niche models were constructed for a broad region of the northern Gulf of Mexico using data gridded at a spatial resolution of 25 m, including bathymetry, substrate type, export productivity, and aragonite satu- ration state at depth. Fine-scale models were constructed at a resolution of 5 m using only remotely sensed bathymetric and surface reflectivity data. The broad-scale model performed well, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.981. All fine-scale models performed well when verified using training data (average AUC of 0.963) and when validated using independent occurrence data from a new geographic region (average AUC of 0.937). The distribution of L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico was found to be controlled primarily by depth, local topography, and availability of hard substrate. While these factors have long been associated with the success of cold-water corals, their relative importance has never been quantified in the Gulf of Mexico, making it histori - cally difficult to precisely delineate L. pertusa's niche and predict its distribution in unexplored regions. Given these results, we suggest that future expeditions combine remotely sensed data with niche modelling techniques to increase the efficiency of deep-sea exploration.