Abstract
Conservation managers and policy makers are often confronted with a challenging dilemma of devising suitable strategies to maintain agricultural productivity while conserving endemic species that at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops. Identification of environmental factors conducive to species range expansion for forecasting species distribution patterns will play a central role in devising management strategies to minimize the conflict between the agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results of a study that predicts the distribution of Indrella ampulla, a snail endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, which is becoming a pest in cardamom (Ellettaria cardamomum) plantations. We determined the distribution patterns and niche overlap between I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling techniques under current and future (2020–2080) climatic scenarios. The results showed that climatic (precipitation of coldest quarter and isothermality) and soil (cation exchange capacity of soil [CEC]) parameters are major factors that determine the distribution of I. ampulla in Western Ghats. The model predicted cardamom cultivation areas in southern Western Ghats are highly sensitive to invasion of I. ampulla under both present and future climatic conditions. While the land area in the central Western Ghats is predicted to become unsuitable for I. ampulla and Ellettaria cardamomum in future, we found 71% of the Western Ghats land area is suitable for Ellettaria cardamomum cultivation and 45% suitable for I. ampulla, with an overlap of 35% between two species. The resulting distribution maps are invaluable for policy makers and conservation managers to design and implement management strategies minimizing the conflicts to sustain agricultural productivity while maintaining biodiversity in the region.
Highlights
Endemic species that are at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops pose a tremendous challenge to conservation managers and policy makers in devising suitable strategies to address conflicting demands between sustenance of agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation
Among the 18 input environmental variables, five variables were significant contributors to the distribution model of I. ampulla: Precipitation of warmest quarter (62.52%) and isothermality (11.54) had highest contribution to the model followed by topsoil cation exchange capacity (CEC) (7.88), elevation (5.56%), and global aridity index (5.01%)
The results of E. cardamomum model calibration using wild and cultivated range data contradict the results of (Beaumont et al 2009), and we did not find significant difference in model performance among models calibrated using either wild range data or cultivated range data or not even accounting for sampling bias toward cultivated and wild range data. It is probably because the E. cardamomum is native to Western Ghats, and most of the cardamom cultivation areas are located in its native range Western Ghats
Summary
Endemic species that are at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops pose a tremendous challenge to conservation managers and policy makers in devising suitable strategies to address conflicting demands between sustenance of agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Implementing eradication measures may lead to extinction of endemic species. If left uncontrolled, these species may become pests with significant negative impact on the economy and livelihood of farming communities. Implementing preventive measures at early stages remains as the best management strategy to avoid conflicts between the maintenance of livelihood of farming communities and biodiversity conservation (Thuiller et al 2005). Recent advances in a 2016 The Authors.
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