Ecological niche modelling for the conservation of endemic threatened squamates (lizards and snakes) in the Western Ghats

Abstract

Squamates are especially sensitive to habitat loss and fragmentation caused due to changing climatic conditions, and as such make excellent focal species for modelling conservation areas and diversity under climate change scenarios. The Western Ghats are a biodiversity hotspot with the highest prevalence of endemic lizards and snakes in India, and are of significant conservation concern. Our niche modelling analysis of 22 endemic threatened squamates of conservation concern in the Western Ghats shows that the study species are majorly affected by future climate change scenarios. A decrease in climatic suitability in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climatic scenarios for the majority of the study species is seen. Hotspots of species diversity in changing climatic scenarios were also modelled based on the ecological niche models, and were seen to be concentrated in the North Central and Southern Western Ghats. The existing protected area network on the site was used as the framework for the generation of a novel conservation area network for the representation of 10% and 30% of the study species on the site, and it was seen that 10.43–52.28% novel areas outside the existing network has to be designated. These novel conservation areas provide necessary contiguity between the existing protected areas for the progression of natural processes and free dispersal of various elements. The results of this paper motivate a thorough appraisal of the protected areas and species diversity in the study region, and the establishment of novel protected areas with a multi-taxon approach to conservation.