Neutral Scenario Research Articles

Virtual Reality Environmental Enrichment Effects on Craving for Cigarette in Smokers.

Background: Preclinical studies suggested the exposure to environmental enrichment (EE) as an intervention able to prevent or reduce nicotine-taking and nicotine-seeking behaviors. Virtual reality (VR) may help to test the effects of EE in smokers in a reproducible and feasible manner. Materials and Methods: In the present study, 31 smokers (14 women) were divided into two groups: (1) exposure to a virtual EE (VR-EE) and (2) exposure to a virtual neutral environment (VR-NoEE). Cigarette craving was assessed as basal and evoked, at different timepoints during the session. Behavior activity during VR exposure, mood, and subjective measures were also collected. Results: EE exposure in VR significantly reduced craving scores from basal timepoint. This was not observed in the VR-NoEE group, which significantly increased craving compared with values at neutral scenario. When both groups were exposed to smoking-related VR scenario, the VR-EE group showed an increased craving compared with previous timepoint up to score values not different from those in the VR-NoEE group. A significant positive correlation between basal craving scores and interactive behavior with virtual smoking cues was observed in the VR-NoEE but not in the VR-EE group. Conclusion: These findings suggest that virtual EE might have an inhibitory effect in smokers on basal, but not on evoked cigarette craving. Noteworthily, the interactive activity correlation to craving scores in the VR-NoEE participants was not observed in the VR-EE group, adding further evidence that the enrichment simulation was nonetheless able to modify behavior in the smoking-related scenario.

Ozone Pollution in China Affected by Climate Change in a Carbon Neutral Future as Predicted by a Process‐Based Interpretable Machine Learning Method

AbstractOzone (O3) pollution is a severe air quality issue in China, posing a threat to human health and ecosystems. The climate change will affect O3 levels by directly changing physical and chemical processes of O3 and indirectly changing natural emissions of O3 precursors. In this study, near‐surface O3 concentrations in China in 2030 and 2060 are predicted using the process‐based interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model integrated with multi‐source data. The results show that the climate‐driven O3 levels over eastern China are projected to decrease by more than 0.4 ppb in 2060 under the carbon neutral scenario (SSP1‐1.9) compared with the high emission scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Among this reduction, 80% is attributed to the changes in physical and chemical processes of O3 related to a cooler climate, while the remaining 20% is attributed to the reduced biogenic isoprene emissions.

INFORMATION PROCESSES IN MODERN ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF VIRTUAL ECONOMY

The developed methodological recommendations regarding the formation of a range of scenarios for the development of industrial enterprise activity, taking into account the indicators of enterprise management information processes based on the construction of management scenarios allow to explore the activity of the enterprise comprehensively. The proposed and implemented recommendations during the evaluation of information management processes of the enterprise, combine the scenario approach and the method of correlation-regression analysis, as well as they allow to determine the impact of integrated indicators of labor, manufacturing and financial sphere on the indicator of ensuring the management effectiveness regarding information processes using different scenarios: pessimistic, neutral, optimistic. An important step in the evaluation process of the enterprise’s activity is to determine the dominant in different development scenarios factors which influence the effectiveness of the information process of industrial enterprise management. Thus, during the pessimistic and neutral scenario, enterprise development is possible by increasing the usage efficiency of production means, such as labor and production funds. During the transformation, process from a pessimistic to a neutral scenario, the role of material incentives increases, in particular, the size of wages. In terms of the optimistic development scenario of enterprise, the priority of the solvency factor is increasing. Identified dominant factors make it possible to influence the state of the enterprise and reduce its sensitivity to changes. The developed methodical approach to the evaluation of the enterprise’s information management process effectiveness is aimed at determining the critical levels of indicators, compliance with these indicators will improve the efficiency of the information management process of an industrial enterprise in case of gradual implementation of its stages. Implementation of the proposed methodological approach based on determination of indicators` limiting values allows to make the transition of the enterprise from a pessimistic development scenario to a neutral one, as well as from a neutral one to an optimistic, which in turn provides an opportunity to determine the target development parameters of the enterprise depending on the current state of its activity.

Analysis for End-of-Life Solar Panel Generations by Renewable Energy Supply towards Carbon Neutrality in South Korea

When solar panels reach end-of-life, the disposal of solar panel waste is an issue of concern because it creates environmental pollution if it is improperly disposed of. It is expected that such waste will probably be increasing as the widespread use of renewable energy is adopted by taking measures associated with carbon neutrality. Thus, accurate prediction of solar panel waste with future demands for renewable energy is urgently needed for sustainable waste management. This study examined the amounts of solar panels to be retried by 2050 under three scenarios (S1-BAU, S2, S3). The amounts of solar panels to be retired are estimated by using the PBM (population balance model) with the Weibull distribution. According to the carbon neutral scenario (S3), the total amounts of solar panels to be retired are anticipated to be around 172 kt in 2030, 932 kt in 2040, and 3146 kt in 2050. The total volume of retired solar panels was projected to be 168 kt in 2030, 820 kt in 2040, and 2331 kt in 2050 under the government-led scenario (S2). The average recovery of end-of-life solar panels produced by the three scenarios in 2050 is 1531 kt, 337 kt, 535 kt, and 22 kt for glass, aluminum, silicon, and copper, respectively. Economic benefits by resource recovery of retired solar panels in 2050 range from $25.6 million in S1 to $519.1 million in S3. Based on the sensitivity analysis with the weight of solar panel (5% and 10% reduction), the results indicated that the annual volumes of retired solar panels mostly fell within the range of 4.9% to 10.0% in 2050. To confirm the predicted volumes of retired solar panels in this study, a further study is warranted because they can be influenced by other factors (e.g., weight, technology development, early loss rate, or reuse and recycling options).

A New Risk-Based Method in Decision Making to Create Dust Sources Maps: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

Dust storms are one of the major causes of the destruction of natural ecosystems and human infrastructure worldwide. Therefore, the identification and mapping of susceptible regions to dust storm formation (SRDSFs) is of great importance. Determining SRDSFs by considering the concept of risk in the decision-making process and the kind of manager’s attitude and planning can be very valuable in dedicating financial resources and time to identifying and controlling the negative impacts of SRDSFs. The purpose of this study was to present a new risk-based method in decision making to create SRDSF maps of pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. To achieve the purpose of this research, effective criteria obtained from various sources were used, including simulated surface data, satellite products, and soil data of Saudi Arabia. These effective criteria included vegetation cover, soil moisture, soil erodibility, wind speed, precipitation, and absolute air humidity. For this purpose, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was employed to generate existing SRDSF maps in different scenarios. The results showed that the wind speed and precipitation criteria had the highest and lowest impact in identifying dust centers, respectively. The areas identified as SRDSFs in very pessimistic, pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 85,950, 168,275, 255,225, 410,000, and 596,500 km2, respectively. The overall accuracy of very pessimistic, pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 84.1, 83.3, 81.6, 78.2, and 73.2%, respectively. The very pessimistic scenario can identify the SRDSFs in the study area with higher accuracy. The overall accuracy of the results of these scenarios compared to the dust sources obtained from the previous studies were 92.7, 94.2, 95.1, 88.4, and 79.7% respectively. The dust sources identified in the previous studies have a higher agreement with the results of the neutral scenario. The proposed method has high flexibility in producing a wide range of SRDSF maps in very pessimistic to very optimistic scenarios. The results of the pessimistic scenarios are suitable for risk-averse managers with limited financial resources and time, and the results of the optimistic scenarios are suitable for risk-taking managers with sufficient financial resources and time.

BEHAVIOURAL ASPECTS OF INVESTMENT DECISIONS ON FARMS

The main purpose of this paper is to identify the behavioral factors that impact the investment decisions made by farm managers. A survey carried out in 2023 with 152farms located in Greater Poland was the source of empirical materials. The study suggests that overconfidence and over-optimism are not widespread in the group surveyed. In assessing their own knowledge of investment topics, 74% of farmers claimed to be equally competent as other agricultural producers. When preparing the implementation of an investment, most respondents (47%) foresee a neutral scenario of how the situation could development, 20% for an optimistic scenario and only13% pick a pessimistic one. Nearly25% of interviewees admitted to rely on the brand’s reputation when choosing a fixed asset (the availability heuristic). The vast majority of farmers surveyed (65%) replied that investing their own funds requires a more in-depth analysis. This corroborates the conclusions made by Richard Thaler and Eric Johnson who discovered that people are less willing to risk their own hard-earned money.

Relaxation of Natural Selection in the Evolution of the Giant Lungfish Genomes.

Nonadaptive hypotheses on the evolution of eukaryotic genome size predict an expansion when the process of purifying selection becomes weak. Accordingly, species with huge genomes, such as lungfish, are expected to show a genome-wide relaxation signature of selection compared with other organisms. However, few studies have empirically tested this prediction using genomic data in a comparative framework. Here, we show that 1) the newly assembled transcriptome of the Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri, is characterized by an excess of pervasive transcription, or transcriptional leakage, possibly due to suboptimal transcriptional control, and 2) a significant relaxation signature in coding genes in lungfish species compared with other vertebrates. Based on these observations, we propose that the largest known animal genomes evolved in a nearly neutral scenario where genome expansion is less efficiently constrained.

Developing a virtual reality environment for educational and therapeutic application to investigate psychological reactivity to bullying

Understanding how bullying victimisation influences cognitive and emotional processes may help to direct early intervention to prevent the development of psychopathology. In a convenience sample of 67 female adolescents, we assessed the potential of a newly developed classroom-set bullying experience in virtual reality (VR) to evoke psychological reactions. Two VR experiences were co-developed with young people, one neutral and one hostile (bullying). Participants were matched and assigned to a condition based on measures of anxiety, depression, paranoia, and previous bullying, before experiencing either the neutral or hostile scenario. Before and after the VR session, participants completed measures of negative affect and levels of distress. All participants remained immersed for the whole duration, which supports the acceptability of using these VR experiences with more vulnerable participants. Those experiencing the hostile version reported greater negative affect post-immersion compared to those experiencing the neutral version (p = .018; d = 0.61). Although non-significant, a similar outcome was found regarding distress (p = .071; d = 0.37). Whilst we did not find a significant relationship between pre-existing internalisation on negative affect and distress, our sample was limited by containing adolescents with relatively low levels of previous bullying experience. Yet we still found evidence that the VR scenario evoked bullying-related psychological reactions. Further testing with a more representative groups of adolescents, especially those with more experience of bullying, would be advised. The VR scenario could potentially be used in educational and therapeutic settings to enhance empathy towards victimised children or enhance resilience following victimisation.

Achieving near-zero carbon dioxide emissions from energy use: The case of Sri Lanka

Signatories to the Paris Agreement are to achieve net zero Green House Gas (GHG) emissions during the half-century to pursue the efforts limiting global average temperature increase by 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. This study models ambitious to challenging scenarios involving energy demand and supply side actions for energy system transition toward net-zero for Sri Lanka. To analyze these scenarios a least cost optimization-based bottom-up type energy system model was developed from 2015 to 2050. A Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four countermeasure (CM) scenarios termed Plausible, Ambitious, Challenging, and Stringent were developed. Four different carbon tax rates were used to fathom the level of carbon tax needed to achieve net-zero emissions. The CM scenarios were formulated considering different technology options and policy measures such as the diffusion of efficient technologies, availability of renewable energy sources, use of cleaner fuels, the introduction of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technologies, and green hydrogen for power generation. The result of this study reveals that the stringent scenario which includes aggressive policy measures in both the energy supply and demand sectors, such as nuclear, and renewable energy for power generation, diffusion of efficient Enduse devices, fuel switching, including the introduction of electric cars, and increased share for public transport achieves the near carbon-neutral scenario at a carbon tax trajectory of 32 US$/tCO2 in 2020 and 562US$/tCO2 in 2050. The Net Energy Import Dependency (NEID) of the country decreases to 13 % in 2050 compared to that of the BAU scenario (65 %) under the near carbon neutral scenario, which is a positive sign from the energy security perspective.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with plastics in China from 1950 to 2060

The unprecedented rise of plastics has caused substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, material flow analysis and GHG accounting models were integrated to estimate the GHG emissions of plastics in China from 1950 to 2020, and the dynamic evolution from 2021 to 2060 was tracked. The cumulative GHG emissions were 5544.0 Mt CO2eq from 1950 to 2020, and 496.8 Mt CO2eq of GHG were emitted in 2020. Monomer production stage had the highest GHG emissions (58.6%) and electricity consumption was the major emission source (69.0%). GHG emissions of baseline and comprehensive scenarios would reach a peak in 2040 and 2030, respectively. Neutral scenario was the only scenario that achieved carbon neutrality by 2060. GHG emission reduction requires reducing plastic demand, improving waste recycling, and adopting bio-based plastics and renewable energy. This study scientifically explored the path of carbon peak and carbon neutrality to combat climate change.

Psychopathic traits and social brain responses during moral evaluation in adolescence

Brain functioning underlying moral decision-making in adolescents with psychopathic traits is relatively less understood. This fMRI study examined the neural correlates of moral decision-making in relation to psychopathic traits, as measured by the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI), in a sample of 16 community-recruited youth (mean age=13.94) with reported behavior problems. Participants viewed images that depicted a moral violation, a conflict with no moral violation, and a neutral scenario. We analyzed activation, seed-to-voxel, and seed-to-seed functional connectivity using a social brain mask during moral reasoning and decision-making. Results indicated: a) greater activity in social brain regions while assessing acts of moral, compared to nonmoral, violations; b) positive correlations between activation of several social brain regions and YPI subscale scores; c) a positive association between YPI and functional connectivity between the social brain network and the bilateral middle cingulate cortices; d) significant effects of YPI on connectivity between social brain regions and the rest of the brain; and e) decreased connectivity between several ROIs during moral reasoning: the left temporoparietal junction (lTPJ) and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC), the precuneus (PREC) and left amygdala (lAMYG), and the PREC and rAMYG. Clinical and developmental implications of these findings are discussed.

Niche breadth of Amazonian trees increases with niche optimum across broad edaphic gradients.

Understanding how biotic interactions and environmental filtering mediated by soil properties shape plant community assembly is a major challenge in ecology, especially when studying complex and hyper-diverse ecosystems like tropical forests. To shed light on the influence of both factors, we examined how the edaphic optimum of species (their niche position) relates to their edaphic range (their niche breadth) along different environmental gradients, and how this translates into functional strategies. Here we test four scenarios describing the shape of the niche breadth - niche position relationship, including one neutral scenario and three scenarios proposing different relative influences of abiotic and biotic factors on community assembly along a soil resource gradient. To do so, we used soil concentration data for five key nutrients (N, P, Ca, Mg and K), along with accurate measurements of 14 leaf, stem and root traits for 246 tree species inventoried in 101 plots located across Eastern (French Guiana) and Western (Peru) Amazonia. We found that species niche breadth increased linearly with species niche position along each soil nutrient gradient. This increase was associated with more resource acquisitive traits in the leaves and the roots for soil N, Ca, Mg and K concentration, while it was negatively associated with wood density for soil P concentration. These observations agreed with one of our hypothetical scenarios in which species with resource conservation traits are confined to the most nutrient-depleted soils (abiotic filter), but they are outperformed by faster-growing species on more fertile conditions (biotic filter). Our results refine and strengthen support for niche theories of species assembly, while providing an integrated approach to improve forest management policies.

Land Use Structure Optimization and Ecological Benefit Evaluation in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Based on Carbon Neutrality

Optimizing land use structure in urban agglomerations is essential to mitigating climate change and achieving carbon neutrality. However, the studies on low-carbon (LC) land use in the urban agglomeration based on carbon neutrality are still limited and lack the consideration of the optimized land ecological benefits. To reduce land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) and improve the ecological benefits of urban agglomerations, we constructed the framework of land use structure optimization (LUSO) under carbon neutrality. Then, in view of land use quantity structure and spatial distribution, we compared the results of LUCEs and the ecological benefits of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (the CCUA) in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that in 2030, the LUCEs of the CCUA is 3481.6632 × 104 t under the carbon neutral scenario (CN_Scenario), which is significantly lower than the baseline scenario (BL_Scenario) and 2020. In the CN_Scenario, the land use/cover change (LUCC) in the CCUA is more moderate, the aggregation degree of the forestland (FL), grassland (GL), wetland (WL), and water (WTR) patch area deepens, and the overall landscape spreading degree is increased, which is more conducive to play the ecological benefit of carbon sink land. The results can provide a reference for the more efficient use of land resource areas and the formulation of land use and spatial planning.

STRATEGIC SCENARIOS FOR SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD

The purpose of the paper is to develop the most probable scenarios and to determine the strategic directions and effective tools for the Ukrainian industrial recovery, which will ensure the resistance of the economy in the conditions of military challenges. The method of strategic scenarios allows to find out how the industrial development in Ukraine will develop in the course of war and post-war recovery. Methodology. The methods of system analysis and logical modeling were used to describe the transition of the Ukrainian production from the current situation of military crisis to the target one; structural analysis was used to determine the system of indicators characterizing the resistance of the industry. For this purpose, national (State Statistics of Ukraine) and international (World Bank, Eurostat official website) databases characterizing the level and structure of industrial development in the last 5 years were used. The method of calculation takes into account the criteria of changes in indicators: direction (growth/decline occurred); rate of changes based on the cumulative annual growth rate for the period of 5 years. The study was carried out using analytical methods of the influence of trends in the formation of strategic scenarios in unpredictable situations (conditions of wartime uncertainty), to assess changes in the probability of occurrence due to the actual occurrence of one of them, which made it possible to identify trends, justify scenarios and take them into account when analyzing the prospects for industrial development to strengthen the defense capabilities and economic growth of Ukraine. The results of the survey showed that the strategic scenarios for the industrial development of Ukraine will be adjusted as necessary for the post-war industrial recovery in case of a long-term external military threat to preserve the state sovereignty. The achievement of the set strategic goals depends on the driving forces determining the industrial development in Ukraine. As the main indicators characterizing the tendencies of industrial development in Ukraine, the indicators reflecting the efficiency of the use of productive forces have been chosen: indicators of industrial production efficiency; labor productivity; indicators characterizing innovative development; performance indicators of foreign economic activity and investment development. Taking into account the influence of each of the driving forces of industrial development in the conditions of wartime uncertainty, three scenarios of industrial development were developed: a conditionally positive scenario, in which the economic system will gradually stabilize due to the cessation of hostilities and the recovery of production capacities; a conditionally negative scenario, which will be characterized by the disintegration of the economic system, the destruction of energy infrastructure facilities, where negative trends will dominate; a conditionally neutral (basic) scenario, in which the disintegration of the economic system will not reach extreme levels, and industrial production will develop in areas not covered by hostilities. Practical implications. The key problem of restoring economic stability in Ukraine is to create conditions for favorable development of industrial business, which depends on balanced strategic policy decisions. The transformation of industry into an effective force for the revival of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of the war and post-war period requires a balanced strategic management of the future development, because it is crucial to meet the unprecedented demands of the war on the available resources of the country and to prevent a social, humanitarian, economic, financial, environmental, military crisis. At the same time, traditional methods of indicative planning cannot take into account all factors of wartime uncertainty, therefore, the rationale of future development vectors based on scenario planning makes it possible to create conditions for minimizing threats and realizing potential opportunities. Value/originality. Strategic scenarios provide for better economic recovery planning with long-term national priorities, development strategies of related industries and sectors for ensuring the Ukrainian manufacturing resistance.

Interplay Between Doping, Morphology, and Lattice Thermal Conductivity in PEDOT:PSS

AbstractOrganic materials for thermoelectric (TE) applications have attracted a fair amount of attention in recent years due to remarkable advances achieved in terms of their figure of merit, ZT: a value of 0.42 has been reported by for poly(3,4‐ethylenedioxythiophene) polystyrene sulfonate (PEDOT:PSS) films treated with dimethyl sulfoxide, while 0.25 has been obtained for PEDOT:Tosylate. In this study various PEDOT morphologies are investigated, considering both neutral and doped (bipolaronic) samples, by means of classical molecular dynamics, by taking advantage of a recently developed all‐atom force field. In the case of bare PEDOT, it is found that changing the distribution of chain lengths affects the thermal conductivity of neutral and doped samples in a different way: longer chain lengths result in higher conductivities in the neutral scenario, whereas an intermediate chain length gives the highest value in the bipolaronic case. The role of PSS in the bipolaronic state, as compared to the simpler case where the counterion is Cl−, is discussed.

Path analysis of energy economic management standardization in the context of carbon neutralization and carbon peak

Carbon neutrality and carbon peak are two important measures to control climate change. They have a huge impact on many companies in the fields of energy, industry, construction, transportation, etc. They can change the development pattern of related industries and increase many new investment and development opportunities. This paper proposes a path analysis of the standardization of energy economic management under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak, aiming to study the development forecast of energy economic management under low-carbon conditions. The algorithm proposed in this paper is an energy consumption analysis algorithm based on the IPAT model, which can be combined with the IPAT model to analyze and process energy consumption data. In addition, by analyzing and evaluating the contribution of various factors, people can better understand the impact of energy consumption on the environment and formulate corresponding solutions. The experimental analysis results of energy economic management based on carbon neutrality and carbon peak show that, from 2013 to 2017, under the baseline scenario, carbon emissions increased year by year, from 9.25 billion tons to 10.48 billion tons. Under the carbon neutral scenario, its carbon emissions are 9.22 billion tons, 9.24 billion tons, 9.22 billion tons, 9.19 billion tons and 9.21 billion tons respectively. Obviously, under the carbon neutral scenario, carbon emissions can be better controlled through carbon neutral and carbon peak strategies. Through these experimental prediction results, it can be proved that carbon neutrality and carbon peaking have excellent effects on promoting energy economic management. At the same time, this study also provides valuable reference information for further research on carbon neutrality and carbon peaks.

An Aero-Structural Model for Ram-Air Kite Simulations

Similar to parafoils, ram-air kites are flexible membrane wings inflated by the apparent wind and supported by a bridle line system. A major challenge in estimating the performance of these wings using a computer model is the strong coupling between the airflow around the wing and the deformation of the membrane structure. In this paper, we introduce a staggered coupling scheme combining a structural finite element solver using a dynamic relaxation technique with a potential flow solver. The developed method proved numerically stable for determining the equilibrium shape of the wing under aerodynamic load and is thus suitable for performance measurement and load estimation. The method was validated with flight data provided by SkySails Power. Measured forces on the tether and steering belt of the robotic kite control pod showed good resemblance with the simulation results. As expected for a potential flow solver, the kite’s glide ratio was overestimated by 10–15%, and the measured tether elevation angle in a neutral flight scenario matched the simulations within 2 degrees. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the proposed aero-structural model can be used for initial designs of ram-air kites with application to airborne wind energy.

The Impact of Covid-19 on China's Real Estate Market

The real estate industry is one of the most vital industries in any economy. The industry entails improvements to structures, roads, utility systems, and buildings and is responsible for creating many jobs. Many challenges have faced the real estate industry, including outbreaks of COVID-19 and Pneumoconiosis. The COVID-19 pandemic had a huge effect on the real estate industry, with sales of property declining significantly. There are three scenarios that can be used to explain the trajectory of the real estate industry after the pandemic. The first scenario, which is the negative scenario, shows that commercial property sales will decline by 13% year on year. The second optimistic scenario points out that sales will increase during the second half of the year and cause a 7% decrease year-on-year. Lastly, under the neutral scenario, sales will be the same as those of the previous years, and the decrease may exceed 10%. In conclusion, the real estate industry faces significant challenges due to the pandemic. There are likely to be differences in recovery as first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are expected to rebound due to a fall in mortgage rates and strong talent recruiting. Second-tier cities will experience the quickest recovery due to strong urban foundations, high population, housing demand, and economic resilience.

Substantial short- and long-term health effect due to PM2.5 and the constituents even under future emission reductions in China

Heavy pollution events of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) frequently occur in China, seriously affecting the human health. However, how meteorological factors and anthropogenic emissions affect PM2.5 and the major constituents, as well as the subsequent health effect, remains unclear. Here, based on regional climate and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), the PM2.5 and major constituents in China at present and mid-century under the carbon neutral scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1–2.6 are simulated. Due to anthropogenic emission reduction, concentrations of PM2.5 and the constituents decrease substantially in SSP1–2.6. The long-term exposure premature deaths at present are 2.23 million per year in mainland China, which is projected to increase by 76 % under SSP1–2.6 despite emission reduction, primarily attributable to aging which strikingly offsets the effect of air quality improvement. The number of annual premature deaths resulting from short-term exposure is 228,104 in mainland China at present, which is projected to decrease in the future. Using North China Plain as an example, we identify that among the major constituents of PM2.5, organic carbon leads to the most short-term exposure deaths considering the largest exposure-response coefficient. Regarding the abnormally meteorological conditions, we find, relative to low relative humidity (RH) and non-stagnation, the compound events, defined as concurrence of high RH and atmospheric stagnation, exhibit an amplified role inducing larger premature deaths compared to the additive effect of the individual event of high RH and atmospheric stagnation. This nonlinear effect occurs at both present and future, but diminished in future due to emission reductions. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the long- and short-term premature deaths associated with PM2.5 and the constituents, as well as the critical effect of extreme weather events.

The evolution of ecological specialization underlies plant endemism in the Atlantic Forest.

The evolution of ecological specialization is favoured under divergent selection imposed by increased environmental heterogeneity, although specialization can limit the geographical range of organisms, thus promoting endemism. The Atlantic Forest (AF) is an ancient montane domain with high plant endemism, containing different environments for plant specialization. Miconia is the most diverse genus of woody flowering plant within the AF domain, including AF-endemic and non-endemic lineages. We hypothesized that Miconia species have faced increased environmental heterogeneity and consequently have been selected towards increased specialization in the AF domain, and this increased specialization has greatly reduced species geographical ranges, ultimately promoting endemism. Hence, we made the following predictions: (1) AF-endemic species should face greater environmental heterogeneity than non-endemic species; (2) AF-endemic species should be more specialized than non-endemic species; (3) specialization should lead to smaller geographical ranges; (4) specialization and small geographical ranges among AF-endemic species should conform to a selection-driven evolutionary scenario rather than to a neutral evolutionary scenario; and (5) small geographical ranges among AF-endemic species should date back to the occupation of the AF domain rather than to more recent time periods. We used geographical, environmental and phylogenetic data on a major Miconia clade including AF-endemic and non-endemic species. We calculated Rao's Q to estimate the environmental heterogeneity faced by species. We used georeferenced occurrences to estimate the geographical ranges of species. We applied environmental niche modelling to infer species niche breadth. We inferred the most likely evolutionary scenario for species geographical range and niche breadth via a model-fitting approach. We used ancestral reconstructions to evaluate species geographical range throughout time. Atlantic Forest-endemic species faced 33-60 % more environmental heterogeneity, with the increase being associated with montane landscapes in the AF. The AF-endemic species were 60 % more specialized overall, specifically over highly variable environmental gradients in AF montane landscapes. Specialization strongly predicted small geographical ranges among AF-endemic species and was a major range-limiting factor among endemic lineages. The AF-endemic species have evolved towards specialization and small geographical ranges under a selection-driven regime, probably imposed by the great environmental heterogeneity in AF montane landscapes. The AF-endemic species underwent a major reduction of geographical range immediately after their evolution, indicating a long-standing effect of selective pressures in the AF domain. Environmental heterogeneity imposes selective pressures favouring ecological specialization and small geographical ranges among plant lineages in the AF domain. This selection-driven process has probably promoted plant endemism in the AF domain throughout its history.