Abstract
The unprecedented rise of plastics has caused substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, material flow analysis and GHG accounting models were integrated to estimate the GHG emissions of plastics in China from 1950 to 2020, and the dynamic evolution from 2021 to 2060 was tracked. The cumulative GHG emissions were 5544.0 Mt CO2eq from 1950 to 2020, and 496.8 Mt CO2eq of GHG were emitted in 2020. Monomer production stage had the highest GHG emissions (58.6%) and electricity consumption was the major emission source (69.0%). GHG emissions of baseline and comprehensive scenarios would reach a peak in 2040 and 2030, respectively. Neutral scenario was the only scenario that achieved carbon neutrality by 2060. GHG emission reduction requires reducing plastic demand, improving waste recycling, and adopting bio-based plastics and renewable energy. This study scientifically explored the path of carbon peak and carbon neutrality to combat climate change.
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