Net Snow Accumulation Research Articles

Glaciochemistry and environmental interpretation of a snow core from West Antarctica.

This study investigated the chemical content of a shallow snow core (4.95 m) named TT 6, collected during a Brazilian traverse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the 2014/2015 Austral summer. Stable isotope ratios (δD and δ18O) and ionic content, determined at the Centro Polar e Climático of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (CPC/UFRGS), were used to date the core and reconstruct the climatic conditions at the site. The core represents approximately 11 years ± 6 months of precipitation, i.e., a mean net snow accumulation rate of 0.19 ± 0.02 m a-1 in water equivalent. Using the non-sea-salt sulfate values, we identified the 2011 Puyhue-Cordón (Chile) volcanic eruption signal, providing a reference horizon for dating. Anions represent 53.73% of the ionic content. We identified that 96.86% of calcium and 84.50% of sulfate are non-sea origin, while the acidic contribution is 25.62% H+. We observed high peaks in marine aerosols containing Na+, Cl-, and Mg2+ during winter, and results from the ERA5 global model (NOAA) indicated that El Niño events could influence Antarctic temperatures, facilitating the transport of marine aerosols to the continent.

A wind-driven snow redistribution module for Alpine3D v3.3.0: adaptations designed for downscaling ice sheet surface mass balance

Abstract. Ice sheet surface mass balance describes the net snow accumulation at the ice sheet surface. On the Antarctic ice sheet, winds redistribute snow, resulting in a surface mass balance that is variable in both space and time. Representing wind-driven snow redistribution processes in models is critical for local assessments of surface mass balance, repeat altimetry studies, and interpretation of ice core accumulation records. To this end, we have adapted Alpine3D, an existing distributed snow modeling framework, to downscale Antarctic surface mass balance to horizontal resolutions up to 1 km. In particular, we have introduced a new two-dimensional advection-based wind-driven snow redistribution module that is driven by an offline coupling between WindNinja, a wind downscaling model, and Alpine3D. We then show that large accumulation variability can be at least partially explained by terrain-induced wind speed variations which subsequently redistribute snow around rolling topography. By comparing Alpine3D to airborne-derived snow accumulation measurements within a testing domain over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, we demonstrate that our Alpine3D downscaling approach improves surface mass balance estimates when compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), a global atmospheric reanalysis which we use as atmospheric forcing. In particular, when compared to MERRA-2, Alpine3D reduces simulated surface mass balance root mean squared error by 23.4 mmw.e.yr-1 (13 %) and increases variance explained by 24 %. Despite these improvements, our results demonstrate that considerable uncertainty stems from the employed saltation model, confounding simulations of surface mass balance variability.

Predicting Antarctic Net Snow Accumulation at the Kilometer Scale and Its Impact on Observed Height Changes.

Sub-grid-scale processes occurring at or near the surface of an ice sheet have a potentially large impact on local and integrated net accumulation of snow via redistribution and sublimation. Given observational complexity, they are either ignored or parameterized over large-length scales. Here, we train random forest (RF) models to predict variability in net accumulation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet using atmospheric variables and topographic characteristics as predictors at 1km resolution. Observations of net snow accumulation from both in situ and airborne radar data provide the input observable targets needed to train the RF models. We find that local net accumulation deviates by as much as 172% of the atmospheric model mean. The correlation in space between the predicted net accumulation variability and satellite-derived surface-height change indicates that surface processes operate differently through time, driven largely by the seasonal anomalies in snow accumulation.

Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry

The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends.

Snow Depth and Air Temperature Seasonality on Sea Ice Derived From Snow Buoy Measurements

Snow depth on sea ice is an essential state variable of the polar climate system and yet one of the least known and most difficult to characterize parameters of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice systems. Here, we present a new type of autonomous platform to measure snow depth, air temperature, and barometric pressure on drifting Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. “Snow Buoys” are designed to withstand the harshest environmental conditions and to deliver high and consistent data quality with minimal impact on the surface. Our current dataset consists of 79 time series (47 Arctic, 32 Antarctic) since 2013, many of which cover entire seasonal cycles and with individual observation periods of up to 3 years. In addition to a detailed introduction of the platform itself, we describe the processing of the publicly available (near real time) data and discuss limitations. First scientific results reveal characteristic regional differences in the annual cycle of snow depth: in the Weddell Sea, annual net snow accumulation ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 m (mean 0.34 m) with some regions accumulating snow in all months. On Arctic sea ice, the seasonal cycle was more pronounced, showing accumulation from synoptic events mostly between August and April and maxima in autumn. Strongest ablation was observed in June and July, and consistently the entire snow cover melted during summer. Arctic air temperature measurements revealed several above-freezing temperature events in winter that likely impacted snow stratigraphy and thus preconditioned the subsequent spring snow cover. The ongoing Snow Buoy program will be the basis of many future studies and is expected to significantly advance our understanding of snow on sea ice, also providing invaluable in situ validation data for numerical simulations and remote sensing techniques.

Application of the radionuclide210Pb in glaciology – an overview

Abstract210Pb is an environmental radionuclide with a half-life of 22.3 years, formed in the atmosphere via radioactive decay of radon (222Rn).222Rn itself is a noble gas with a half-life of 3.8 days and is formed via radioactive decay of uranium (238U) contained in the Earth crust from where it constantly emanates into the atmosphere.210Pb atoms attach to aerosol particles, which are then deposited on glaciers via scavenging with fresh snow. Due to its half-life, ice cores can be dated with this radionuclide over roughly one century, depending on the initial210Pb activity concentration. Optimum210Pb dating is achieved for cold glaciers with no – or little – influence by percolating meltwater. This paper presents an overview which not only includes dating of cold glaciers but also some special cases of210Pb applications in glaciology addressing temperate glaciers, glaciers with negative mass balance, sublimation processes on glaciers in arid regions, determination of annual net snow accumulation as well as glacier flow rates.

Atmospheric River–Induced Precipitation and Snowpack during the Western United States Cold Season

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated corridors of high water vapor content transported from tropical and/or extratropical cyclones. We characterize precipitation and snow water equivalent associated with ARs intersecting the western U.S. coast during the cold season (November– March) of water years 1949–2015. For each AR landfalling date, we retrieved the precipitation and relevant hydrometeorological variables from dynamically downscaled atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR) using the WRF mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. Landfalling ARs resulted in higher precipitation amounts throughout the domain than did non-AR storms. ARs contributed the most extreme precipitation events during January and February. Daily snow water equivalent (SWE) changes during ARs indicate that high positive net snow accumulation conditions accompany ARs in December, January, and February. We also assess the historical impact of AR storm duration and precipitation frequency by considering the precipitation depth estimated during a 72-h window bounding the AR landfall date. More extreme precipitation amounts are produced by ARs in the South Cascades and Sierra Nevada ranges compared with ARs with landfall farther north. Most AR extreme precipitation events (and lower SWE accumulations) are produced during warm AR dates, especially toward the northern end of our domain. Analysis of ARs during dry and wet years reveals that ARs during wet years are more frequent and produce heavier precipitation and snow accumulation as compared with dry years. Such conditions are evident in drought events that are associated with a reduced frequency of ARs.

Firn data compilation reveals widespread decrease of firn air content in western Greenland

Abstract. A porous layer of multi-year snow known as firn covers the Greenland-ice-sheet interior. The firn layer buffers the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise by retaining a fraction of summer melt as liquid water and refrozen ice. In this study we quantify the Greenland ice-sheet firn air content (FAC), an indicator of meltwater retention capacity, based on 360 point observations. We quantify FAC in both the uppermost 10 m and the entire firn column before interpolating FAC over the entire ice-sheet firn area as an empirical function of long-term mean air temperature (Ta‾) and net snow accumulation (c˙‾). We estimate a total ice-sheet-wide FAC of 26 800±1840 km3, of which 6500±450 km3 resides within the uppermost 10 m of firn, for the 2010–2017 period. In the dry snow area (Ta‾≤-19 ∘C), FAC has not changed significantly since 1953. In the low-accumulation percolation area (Ta‾>-19 ∘C and c˙‾≤600 mm w.e. yr−1), FAC has decreased by 23±16 % between 1998–2008 and 2010–2017. This reflects a loss of firn retention capacity of between 150±100 Gt and 540±440 Gt, respectively, from the top 10 m and entire firn column. The top 10 m FACs simulated by three regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RACMO2.3p2, and MARv3.9) agree within 12 % with observations. However, model biases in the total FAC and marked regional differences highlight the need for caution when using models to quantify the current and future FAC and firn retention capacity.

Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr−1 over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16 % of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.

Snow accumulation variability on a West Antarctic ice stream observed with GPS reflectometry, 2007–2017

AbstractLand ice loss from Antarctica is a significant and accelerating contribution to global sea level rise; however, Antarctic mass balance estimates are complicated by insufficient knowledge of surface mass balance processes such as snow accumulation. Snow accumulation is challenging to observe on a continental scale and in situ data are sparse, so we largely rely on estimates from atmospheric models. Here we employ a novel technique, GPS interferometric reflectometry (GPS‐IR), to measure upper (<2 m) firn column thickness changes across a 23‐station GPS array in West Antarctica. We compare the results with antenna heights measured in situ to establish the method's daily uncertainty (0.06 m) and with output from two atmospheric reanalysis products to categorize spatial and temporal variability of net snow accumulation. GPS‐IR is an effective technique for monitoring surface mass balance processes that can be applied to both historic GPS data sets and future experiments to provide critical in situ observations of processes driving surface height evolution.

Variabilidade do conteúdo iônico da neve e do firn ao longo de um transecto antártico

Com o objetivo de interpretar a variabilidade no conteúdo iônico da neve e do firn entre Patriot Hills (80º18’S, 81º21’W) e o Polo Sul Geográfico, foram determinadas as concentrações dos íons majoritários e as razões isotópicas das 200 primeiras frações de cinco testemunhos de neve e firn (com profundidades de até 46 m), durante a travessia chileno-brasileira ocorrida no verão de 2004–2005. Após as amostras serem limpas (em câmara fria) e derretidas (em sala limpa classe 100), os íons Na+ , K+ , Mg2+, Ca2+, MS- (CH3 SO3 - ), Cl- , NO3 - e SO4 2- foram analisados por cromatografia iônica, com limites de detecção entre 0,3 e 1,8 µg L-1, dependendo do íon. A razão isotópica deutério/hidrogênio (δD) foi determinada com precisão de 0,5‰. Dataram-se as amostras, com precisão anual e exatidão de ±2 anos, a partir da contagem anual de camadas de neve e de firn dos perfis de Na+ , nssSO4 2- (sulfato não proveniente do sal marinho, do inglês non-sea-salt sulfate) e δD. A partir da datação obteve-se as taxas médias de acumulação líquida de neve para os sítios de cada testemunho de neve e firn, as quais apresentaram uma correlação negativa (r > 0,4, em módulo) à medida que se aumentavam a elevação e a distância da costa, respondendo, ainda, às feições superficiais locais e à ocorrência de ventos catabáticos. Constataram-se aerossóis do sal marinho com alteração na razão Na+ /Cl- no registro dos cinco testemunhos de neve e firn, mas a presença de aerossóis produzidos na formação do gelo marinho só foi identificada nos sítios mais próximos à costa. Os registros de NO3 - , assim como os de MS- , indicam a provável ocorrência de processos pós- -deposicionais, ligados tanto a eventos vulcânicos, como a reações fotoquímicas acentuadas por superfícies com formação de esmalte de gelo.

The effects of dating uncertainties on net accumulation estimates from firn cores

AbstractThe mean, trend and variability of net snow accumulation in firn cores are often used to validate model output, develop remote-sensing algorithms and quantify ice-sheet surface mass balance. Thus, accurately defining uncertainties associated with these in situ measurements is critical. In this study, we apply statistical simulation methods to quantify the uncertainty in firn-core accumulation data due to the uncertainty in depth–age scales. The methods are applied to a suite of firn cores from central West Antarctica. The results show that uncertainty in depth–age scales can give rise to spurious trends in accumulation that are the same order of magnitude as accumulation trends reported in West Antarctica. The depth–age scale uncertainties also significantly increase the apparent interannual accumulation variability, so these uncertainties must first be accounted for before using firn-core data to assess such processes as small-spatial-scale variability. Better quantification of error in accumulation will improve our ability to meaningfully compare firn-core data across different regions of the ice sheet, and provide appropriate targets for calibration and/or validation of model output and remote-sensing data.

Soil moisture response to snowmelt timing in mixed‐conifer subalpine forests

AbstractWestern US forest ecosystems and downstream water supplies are reliant on seasonal snowmelt. Complex feedbacks govern forest–snow interactions in which forests influence the distribution of snow and the timing of snowmelt but are also sensitive to snow water availability. Notwithstanding, few studies have investigated the influence of forest structure on snow distribution, snowmelt and soil moisture response. Using a multi‐year record from co‐located observations of snow depth and soil moisture, we evaluated the influence of forest‐canopy position on snow accumulation and snow depth depletion, and associated controls on the timing of soil moisture response at Boulder Creek, Colorado, Jemez River Basin, New Mexico, and the Wolverton Basin, California. Forest‐canopy controls on snow accumulation led to 12–42 cm greater peak snow depths in openversusunder‐canopy positions. Differences in accumulation and melt across sites resulted in earlier snow disappearance in open positions at Jemez and earlier snow disappearance in under‐canopy positions at Boulder and Wolverton sites. Irrespective of net snow accumulation, we found that peak annual soil moisture was nearly synchronous with the date of snow disappearance at all sites with an average deviation of 12, 3 and 22 days at Jemez, Boulder and Wolverton sites, respectively. Interestingly, sites in the Sierra Nevada showed peak soil moisture prior to snow disappearance at both our intensive study site and the nearby snow telemetry stations. Our results imply that the duration of soil water stress may increase as regional warming or forest disturbance lead to earlier snow disappearance and soil moisture recession in subalpine forests. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends

Snow is a vital resource for a host of natural and human systems. Global warming is projected to drive widespread decreases in snow accumulation by the end of the century, potentially affecting water, food, and energy supplies, seasonal heat extremes, and wildfire risk. However, over the next few decades, when the planning and implementation of current adaptation responses are most relevant, the snow response is more uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in regional and local precipitation trends. We use a large (40-member) single-model ensemble climate model experiment to examine the influence of precipitation variability on the direction and magnitude of near-term Northern Hemisphere snow trends. We find that near-term uncertainty in the sign of regional precipitation change does not cascade into uncertainty in the sign of regional snow accumulation change. Rather, temperature increases drive statistically robust consistency in the sign of future near-term snow accumulation trends, with all regions exhibiting reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, along with mean decreases in late-season snow accumulation. However, internal variability does create uncertainty in the magnitude of hemispheric and regional snow changes, including uncertainty as large as 33 % of the baseline mean. In addition, within the 40-member ensemble, many mid-latitude grid points exhibit at least one realization with a statistically significant positive trend in net snow accumulation, and at least one realization with a statistically significant negative trend. These results suggest that the direction of near-term snow accumulation change is robust at the regional scale, but that internal variability can influence the magnitude and direction of snow accumulation changes at the local scale, even in areas that exhibit a high signal-to-noise ratio.

Ice sheet dynamics within an earth system model: downscaling, coupling and first results

Abstract. We present first results from a coupled model setup, consisting of the state-of-the-art ice sheet model RIMBAY (Revised Ice Model Based on frAnk pattYn), and the community earth system model COSMOS. We show that special care has to be provided in order to ensure physical distributions of the forcings as well as numeric stability of the involved models. We demonstrate that a suitable statistical downscaling is crucial for ice sheet stability, especially for southern Greenland where surface temperatures are close to the melting point. The downscaling of net snow accumulation is based on an empirical relationship between surface slope and rainfall. The simulated ice sheet does not show dramatic loss of ice volume for pre-industrial conditions and is comparable with present-day ice orography. A sensitivity study with high CO2 level is used to demonstrate the effects of dynamic ice sheets onto climate compared to the standard setup with prescribed ice sheets.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961–2001

Abstract. Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

Net Snowpack Accumulation and Ablation Characteristics in the Inland Temperate Rainforest of the Upper Fraser River Basin, Canada

This study examines the net snow accumulation and ablation characteristics and trends in the Inland Temperate Rainforest (ITR) of the Upper Fraser River Basin, British Columbia (BC), Canada. It intends to establish whether elevation and/or air temperature play(s) a dominant role in hydrological year peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and whether regional patterns emerge in the interannual variability in peak accumulation. To that end, SWE and air temperature data from seven snow pillow sites in the Upper Fraser River Basin at elevations ranging from 1118 to 1847 m above sea level are analyzed to infer snowpack characteristics and trends for hydrological years 1969–2012, with 2005–2012 being the actual period of data overlap. Average peak SWE ranges from 391.3 mm at Barkerville, BC on 16 April to 924.4 mm at Hedrick Lake, BC on 27 April. Snow cover duration lasts 206–258 days, with snow onset dates from mid-October to early November and snow off dates from late May to early July. Statistically-significant (p ≤ 0.05) cross correlations exist between peak SWE at nearly all sites, indicating regional coherence in seasonal synoptic activity across the study area. However, the lack of relationships between peak SWE and elevation as well as air temperature parameters indicate that mesoscale to local processes lead to distinct snow accumulation and ablation patterns at each site. Four sites with the longest records exhibit no trend in peak SWE values between 1990 and 2012. Changes to snowpack regimes may pose a threat to the productivity and immense biodiversity supported by the ancient western red cedar and hemlock stands growing in the wet toe slopes of the ITR. Thus, it is imperative that continued monitoring of snowpack conditions remains a top priority in the Upper Fraser River Basin, allowing for a better understanding of ecosystem changes in a warming climate.

Changes in Snow Mass Balance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Caused by CO2 Rise: Regional Atmosphere Model Results

This study investigates snow mass balance in the Canadian Rockies under a relatively conservative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario for the twenty-first century through the use of regional atmosphere modelling. We dynamically downscale results from five 10-year subsets of general circulation model integrations to 6 km resolution to produce a physically consistent representation of the atmosphere at high elevations. Regional model results make evident greater warming with increasing elevation at low to mid-levels of the atmosphere, and a simple thermodynamic explanation of this process is presented. Simulated increases in atmospheric water vapour result in increases in cloud cover and precipitation at high elevations, which temporarily offset the effects of rising temperatures, but by 2100 all model elevations experience reductions in snow mass balance. A simple energy balance model produces reasonable estimates of changes in the elevation of equilibrium net snow accumulation, with increases between 185 and 197 m under an approximate 1.5°C rise in surface temperatures by 2100.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Reconstruction. Part I: Net Snow Accumulation (1600–2009)

Abstract Ice core data are combined with Regional Atmospheric Climate Model version 2 (RACMO2) output (1958–2010) to develop a reconstruction of Greenland ice sheet net snow accumulation rate, Ât(G), spanning the years 1600–2009. Regression parameters from regional climate model (RCM) output regressed on 86 ice cores are used with available cores in a given year resulting in the reconstructed values. Each core site’s residual variance is used to inversely weight the cores’ respective contributions. The interannual amplitude of the reconstructed accumulation rate is damped by the regressions and is thus calibrated to match that of the RCM data. Uncertainty and significance of changes is measured using statistical models. A 12% or 86 Gt yr−1 increase in ice sheet accumulation rate is found from the end of the Little Ice Age in ~1840 to the last decade of the reconstruction. This 1840–1996 trend is 30% higher than that of 1600–2009, suggesting an accelerating accumulation rate. The correlation of Ât(G) with the average surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (SATNHt) remains positive through time, while the correlation of Ât(G) with local near-surface air temperatures or North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is inconsistent, suggesting a hemispheric-scale climate connection. An annual sensitivity of Ât(G) to SATNHt of 6.8% K−1 or 51 Gt K−1 is found. The reconstuction, Ât(G), correlates consistently highly with the North Atlantic Oscillation index. However, at the 11-yr time scale, the sign of this correlation flips four times in the 1870–2005 period.

One-year records from automatic snow stations in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

AbstractTwo automatic snow stations were deployed for one year (from December 2009–January 2011) in western Dronning Maud Land. The purposes of the experiment were: 1) to build a working snow station to measure the snow surface layer temperature, and 2) to use the data for snow heat and mass balance investigations. The data collection was successful and lasted about 400 days (9 December 2009–21 January 2011). The annual net snow accumulation at snow station 2 (continental ice sheet) was 86 cm (345 mm water equivalent) and at snow station 1 (ice shelf) more than 150 cm. The power spectra revealed daily cycle, synoptic scale variability, and variability in a low-frequency band of 60–120 days at a depth of 54 cm. The snow-air heat flux was estimated from the data, resulting in negative values (from snow to air) during autumn and winter and positive values (from air to snow) in spring and summer. The physical characterization of snow stratigraphy was done during installation and retrieval of the snow stations, including density, hardness (hand test), stratigraphy, and grain size and shape.