Negative Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Unprecedented cross-equatorial southerly wind anomalies during the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña: Impacts and mechanisms

The 2020–2023 La Niña event, the third triple-dip occurrence since 1950, stands out for its unique characteristics when compared to the preceding events in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001. Unlike its predecessors, the latest event emerged without a preceding strong El Niño episode, starting from a state of weak discharge. Moreover, the resurgence of cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during 2020–2023 showed a loose link to ocean-atmosphere variability in the northern subtropical Pacific. The spatial pattern of anomalous conditions in this recent event featured persistent SST cooling in the southeast tropical Pacific, accompanied by pronounced meridional southerly wind anomalies. Our comprehensive investigation indicates a minimal role of subsurface ocean dynamics, underscoring the exceptional strength of cross-equatorial meridional southerly wind anomalies as a primary driver of sustained negative sea surface temperature anomalies. By considering the influences of intra-basin and inter-basin factors, we propose that the observed patterns may be the combined outcome of interannual variability within the tropical Pacific and decadal variations beyond the tropics. Noteworthy contributions from the low-frequency components of the South Pacific Meridional Mode and the Atlantic Warm Pool further shape the dynamics of this event. Our findings underline the increasing importance of meridional winds in shaping the evolution of ENSO in recent decades.

Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the ‘7·20’ extraordinary typhoon‐rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China

AbstractOn 20 July, 2021, an extraordinary rainstorm occurred in Zhengzhou in Central‐North China, which caused hundreds of deaths and serious property damages, and affected 14 million people. The compound anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be responsible for the occurrence of the extraordinary rainstorm in Zhengzhou, but the influence of large‐scale sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the contribution of climate change received less attention. This study conducts an attribution analysis based on atmospheric reanalysis and sea surface temperature (SST) observation data combined with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulation data. The results show that the return period for the extraordinary rainstorm was 250 years, which was caused by the interaction between the abnormally northerly shift of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) that was associated with the negative SSTA over the tropical central‐eastern Pacific (i.e., a moderate La Niña condition) and Typhoon In‐fa and Typhoon Cempaka. A persistent convergence was formed over Zhengzhou by transporting a large amount of water vapour to hinterland. The lagged response of La Niña affected WNPSH and the rainband in China. The attribution analysis shows that climate change due to anthropogenic forcings such as greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of such a rainstorm event by 12% compared to the conditions under the natural forcings. Under the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and La Niña, the risk of occurrence increased 47% compared to the effect of natural forcings only on similar precipitation events. This study suggests a synergistic effect of climate change and large‐scale tropical climate variability on compound extremes.

Flash Drought in the South of Yangtze River and the Potential Impact of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractFlash droughts (FDs), a type of drought with rapid onset, occurred in growing season have damaging impacts on crops, ecosystem and hence livelihoods. However, the associated physical mechanism were not well understood, which prohibits a skillful early warning. Based on the reanalysis data for 1961–2022, we diagnosed the characteristics, antecedent meteorological conditions and large‐scale atmospheric circulation of FDs over the region south of Yangtze River (SYR), a hotspot region of FDs. The FDs tend to occur during the periods before (i.e., from April to mid‐June) and after (i.e., early July–September) Meiyu season (B‐Meiyu and A‐Meiyu periods). Large precipitation deficits and rapid elevated temperature caused by anomalous subsidence and moisture divergence are responsible for the onset of FDs during the two periods. The North Atlantic tripole‐like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) modes have potential impact on the anomalous circulations via modulating Rossby wave trains, but with different locations among the two periods. During B‐Meiyu period, the SSTA mode is characterized by positive SSTA over subtropical North Atlantic and negative SSTAs over the tropical and mid‐latitude ocean, triggering a “+ − + − + −” circulation pattern over North Atlantic–Eurasia, which reinforces the East Asian trough (EAT). Anomalous northeasterly winds dominate the SYR suppressing moisture transport from the tropics. The SSTA mode locates farther to the north during A‐Meiyu period, inducing a “+ − + − +” wave train over mid‐latitude North Atlantic‐Eurasia, leading to the strengthening of the western Pacific subtropical high. The high‐pressure anomalies control the SYR, resulting in anomalous subsidence and hence negative precipitation anomalies.

Nonlinear response of summertime synoptic-scale disturbance intensity over the tropical western North Pacific to ENSO amplitude

Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits nonlinearity in its amplitude and impacts. This study investigates the dependence of summertime synoptic-scale disturbance (SSD) intensity over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) on the ENSO amplitude. A tendency of nonlinearity exists in the observed response of the TWNP SSD intensity to the amplitude of tropical central-eastern Pacific (CEP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in boreal summer. Numerical experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model with linearly varying tropical CEP SST anomalies imposed to illustrate the nonlinearity exclusively induced by changes in the ENSO amplitude. Linear increase in the amplitude of El Niño-like SST anomalies results in a nonlinear enhancement of SSD intensity over the TWNP, manifested as the increase of SSD intensity at a rate larger than expected by linear response with an eastward shift. This is attributed to the nonlinear intensification of anomalous ascent over the TWNP induced by tropical convection response to positive tropical CEP SST anomalies and the nonlinear effect of anomalous convection on the synoptic-scale activity. In contrast, as La Niña-like SST anomalies increase linearly, the SSD intensity over the TWNP decreases at a rate slower than expected from a linear response and even reaches saturation with little longitudinal shift. Due to the thermodynamic control on the occurrence of deep convection in tropics, enhanced negative SST anomalies do not induce additional changes in anomalous descent over the tropical CEP. Thus, the TWNP SSD intensity no longer decreases with further increase in tropical CEP cold SST anomalies.

Contributions of Air‐Sea Coupling to Northward‐Propagating Intraseasonal Convection Over the South China Sea

AbstractNorthward‐propagating convection associated with intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the South China Sea (SCS) is closely linked to the evolution of the East China rainy season. In this study, we quantitatively examined the contribution of air‐sea coupling to northward propagation of intraseasonal convection over the SCS based on observational diagnosis and model experiments. While oceanic feedback plays a limited role in northward propagation of Indian Ocean and western Pacific ISO, its positive effect on SCS ISO propagation is much larger and nearly comparable with that of atmospheric internal dynamics over the central SCS. Warm intraseasonal sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies ahead of the convection induce boundary‐layer convergence and surface turbulent fluxes, largely favoring growth of moist static energy to the north of the ISO convection. Conversely, weak negative SST anomalies induce divergence and reduced fluxes over the convective center. The underlying SST anomalies strongly promote northward propagation of SCS ISO, but destroy the maintenance of deep convection. We then verified these oceanic feedbacks using atmosphere‐only (SPA) and atmosphere–ocean‐mixed‐layer coupled (SPK) configurations of the Super‐Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model. The SPA simulations produced stronger intraseasonal convection but weaker propagation signals than the SPK simulations, confirming the positive contribution of intraseasonal SST to ISO propagation observed over the SCS.

Modulation of the link between the Hadley circulation and the meridional structure of tropical SSTs by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

This paper investigates the effects of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the relationship between the Hadley circulation (HC) and the different meridional structures of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST). The response of the HC to SSTs shows inconsistent variations between the warm and cold phases of the AMO. The response of the HC to SSTs during the cold phase of the AMO is similar to that seen in the long-term and seasonal cycles. However, during the warm AMO phase, the magnitude of this response is significantly reduced. This significant difference in the response is caused mainly by the weakened response amplitude of the equatorially asymmetric HC and SST. The potential mechanisms associated with this suppression are also investigated, and they relate primarily to differences in the SST meridional anomalies within the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). During the AMO warm phase, the profile of SST anomalies in the IPWP exhibits characteristics similar to an equatorially symmetric distribution, which weakens the equatorially asymmetric component of the tropical SST and then contributes to the suppression of the response ratio. However, the amplitudes of the insignificant negative SST anomalies in the northern and southern IPWP are similar during the cold AMO phase. This distribution of SST anomalies has a minimal impact on the variation of SST gradients. Therefore, the response ratio during the cold AMO phase is comparable to that observed in the long-term and seasonal cycles. Other atmospheric reanalysis data are used to further confirm these results.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Fronts and Their Impact on Chlorophyll-a in the Indonesian Seas

Abstract The spatiotemporal variability of oceanic fronts in the Indonesian seas was investigated using high-resolution satellite observations. The study aimed to understand the underlying mechanism driving these fronts and their impact on chlorophyll-a variability. A high value of frontal probability was found near the coasts of major islands, exhibiting a distinct seasonal cycle with peaks occurrences during austral winter. The distribution variability of chlorophyll-a was generally consistent with the presence of active frontal zones, although a significantly positive relationship between fronts and chlorophyll-a was limited to only some specific areas, e.g., south Java Island and the Celebes Sea. Wind-driven upwelling played a major role in front generation in the Java upwelling region and enhanced frontal activity can promote the growth of phytoplankton, leading to higher chlorophyll-a. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that wind patterns preceded variations in front probability and chlorophyll-a by approximately two months. This lag suggests that the spatiotemporal variability of fronts and chlorophyll-a in this region is primarily influenced by the monsoon system. In addition, the sea surface temperature (SST) simultaneously modulated the chlorophyll-a variability. Negative SST anomalies were typically associated with positive anomalies in front probability the chlorophyll-a in most areas. Notably, the interannual variability of fronts and chlorophyll-a are prominent in the Java upwelling region. During El Niño years, this region experienced an enhanced monsoon, resulting in a negative SST anomaly alongside positive anomalies in front probability and chlorophyll-a. A comprehensive description and underlying dynamics of frontal activity in the Indonesian seas are provided by this study. The findings are helpful to delineate the variability in chlorophyll-a, thereby facilitating the future understanding of local primary production and the carbon cycle. Significance Statement As typical mesoscale processes, oceanic fronts have significant impacts on biological processes and fisheries in marginal seas. The complex spatiotemporal variability of fronts and their effects on biological processes in the Indonesian seas remain poorly understood. This study aimed to address this knowledge gap by investigating the seasonal and interannual variability of fronts and their influence on chlorophyll-a, a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity. The study identified a high frontal probability in south Java Island during austral winter and El Niño years. Wind-driven upwelling was found to be a major factor in front generation and promoting phytoplankton growth. The findings of this study will improve the theoretical knowledge of regional dynamics, local primary production, and the carbon cycle in the Indonesian seas, benefiting fisheries management and ecosystem conservation efforts.

Enhanced rainfall in North China in July 2021: Role of the North Pacific SST gradient

The rainfall over North China (NC) in July 2021 was the most since 1980, and coincided with a meridional gradient of sea surface temperature anomaly (MGSSTA) in the Pacific. The present study shows that the gradient between the positive sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the northwestern Pacific and the negative SSTA over the tropical central Pacific was the main reason for the enhanced rainfall in NC in July 2021 because of its influence on the anomalous northward movements of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) and its southern cyclone. The associated easterly wind anomalies along the southern flank of the WNPAC converged with the anomalous easterly along the north flank of the anomalous cyclone, transporting more moisture from south to NC. Meanwhile, the MGSSTA likely induced an anomalous reversed Hadley circulation accompanied by distinct southerly wind anomalies in the low troposphere. These anomalies favored a strong monsoon circulation, which is often accompanied by a rain band in a more northern location.摘要2021年7月, 华北地区的降水量突破1980年以来的极值, 这与太平洋海温异常的经向梯度相吻合. 研究表明, 西北太平洋正海温异常与热带中太平洋负海温异常之间的梯度是2021年7月华北地区降水异常偏多的主要原因, 该梯度使得西北太平洋反气旋及其南部的气旋北移, 汇合的偏东风将大量水汽从海洋输送到华北地区, 使得华北地区降水偏多. 同时, 太平洋海温异常的经向梯度可能在对流层低层触发异常的反向哈德利环流, 伴随着南风异常, 使得季风环流增强, 雨带偏北.

Extreme Drought Assessment in Sumatra-Indonesia Using SPI and EDI

Even though Sumatra is very vulnerable to the effects of drought, research identifying drought on this island is very limited, especially extreme drought. This research was conducted to identify extreme drought in Sumatra using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Effective Drought Index (EDI). This study uses precipitation data from the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) reanalysis data. The composite indices were conducted to discover some phenomena that cause the drought based on El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. The results showed that the El Niño and positive IOD phenomena were more likely to influence extreme droughts. However, the droughts in 2014 and 2008 tended to be influenced by the negative Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA). The spatial analysis results show that the areas that experience extreme drought more often are the west coast of Sumatra (except Aceh province), especially based on SPI12 and EDI. The composite indices results show that the drought that occurred in Aceh province was more influenced by the El Niño phenomenon in the December-January-February (DJF) period and the positive IOD in the June-July-August (JJA) – September-October-November (SON) period. In addition, Aceh province is an area that is not affected by El Niño-positive IOD, especially during the SON-DJF period. These results can be used to mitigate drought, especially when El Niño-positive IOD phenomena cause it.

Interdecadal variation of precipitation over Yunnan, China in summer and its possible causes

In recent decades, severe drought conditions have become increasingly frequent in Yunnan, Southwest China. The extreme drought events cause huge losses to agricultural economy, ecological security and human health. To uncover the reasons behind the worsening drought conditions, this study investigates the interdecadal variability (IDV) of summer precipitation in Yunnan during 1961–2019 and its association with the Indo-Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) configuration based on gauge observation and reanalysis data. The dominant mode of summer precipitation IDV in Yunnan shows a uniform pattern characterizing the alternations of flood and drought. Specifically, a relatively wet period persists from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, followed by a relatively dry period from the early 2000s to the late 2010s. The IDV of precipitation is consistent with the IDV of the column-integrated water vapor flux divergence, where the wind anomalies play a major role in modulating the moisture supply. The main SST forcings of the IDV of precipitation include the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), and the western North Pacific (WNP). The negative SSTAs over the BOB and the WPWP trigger a Gill-Matsuno-type response that enhances the cyclonic curvature over Yunnan. The SSTAs over the WNP show a tripole pattern that weakens the WNP subtropical high and further enhances the cyclonic anomaly over Yunnan. The above SST configuration also favors moisture transport to Yunnan. Numerical experiments verify the key physical processes.

The mechanism of boreal summer SSTA phase-locking in the far eastern Pacific

In observations, the boreal winter El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking phenomenon is evident in the central-eastern Pacific. In the far eastern equatorial Pacific (FEP) and South American coastal regions, however, the peak of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) tends to occur in the boreal summer, with fewer winter peak events. By separating the direct ENSO forcing from the FEP SSTA, we found that the summer peak preference is contributed by the residual SSTA component, while the ENSO forcing provides only a small probability of winter peak. The dynamics of FEP SSTA phase-locking in observations and its biases in the climate models are investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model. In observations, the summer phase-locking of FEP SSTA is controlled by the seasonal modulation of the SSTA damping process. In contrast, in the climate models the strength of FEP SSTA phase-locking is much smaller than observed due to the overly negative SSTA damping rate.

Influencing factors in the stagnation of the Baiu front that induced heavy rainfall in July 2020 over Kyushu, Japan

The influencing factors of the long-term stagnation of the Baiu front that induced heavy rainfall in July 2020 over Kyushu, Japan, were examined. In July 2020, the position of the Baiu front from a weather chart at 130° E remained stationary over Kyushu for 20 days, and that was the longest from 2002 to 2021. By examining a certain index of the Yellow Sea High (YSH), which is a necessary condition for Baiu front stagnation near Kyushu, it was confirmed that in 2020, a positive high-pressure anomaly persisted over the Yellow Sea until the end of July. The YSH maintenance was due to the significant negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the Yellow Sea. The significant negative SST anomalies in the Yellow Sea were due to vertical mixing in ocean mixed layer in response to the strong winds of the extratropical cyclones. A rapid SST decrease ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 °C/day was repeatedly occurred by ocean mixed layer deepening in association with the passage of the extratropical cyclones. The anomalous long-term stagnation of YSH due to the negative SST anomalies could have caused the Baiu front to remain stagnant over Kyushu until the end of July.

Varying Relationship between La Niña and SST Anomalies in the Kuroshio and Adjacent Regions during Boreal Winter: Role of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

Abstract The winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions (KAR), which greatly influence the East Asian–North Pacific–North American climate, are closely related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This SST relationship between the KAR and the equatorial eastern-central Pacific is widely assumed to be symmetric between El Niño and La Niña. Compared to previous studies indicating the significant and strong KAR warming during El Niño winters, this study indicates weakly negative KAR SST anomalies in the composite analysis for all La Niña events. Positive winter KAR SST anomalies unexpectedly appear in approximately half of La Niña events, which counteract negative SST anomalies in the rest of La Niña events. Further analysis suggests that the impact of La Niña on KAR SST anomalies is modulated by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) during early winter. The weaker-than-normal EAWM offsets the anomalous northeasterly winds in the KAR induced by La Niña and then reinforces the KAR warming through warm oceanic advection. As for strong EAWM, it enhances the northeasterly winds to the west of an anomalous Philippine Sea cyclone associated with La Niña, leading to KAR cooling with more latent heat flux loss from the ocean and anomalous cold oceanic advection. Additionally, when the EAWM is independent of ENSO and is associated with the western Pacific pattern, it also can exhibit a pronounced influence on the KAR SST anomalies via the major processes of surface latent flux and horizontal heat advection in the ocean, accompanied by a change in Kuroshio transport. Significance Statement The interannual variability of SST from Philippine Sea to the Kuroshio and adjacent regions is considered an important forecast factor of the eastern China climate. Previous studies have reported a dipole SST pattern with Philippine Sea cooling and warming in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions during El Niño winter is dominant, and simply regarded that the effect of La Niña on western North Pacific SST anomalies was a mirror image of that of El Niño events. Here, we have found two distinctive SST patterns in the western North Pacific during La Niña winter. One type is the dipole SST pattern, characterized by Philippine Sea warming and by cooling in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions. The other type is the monopole SST pattern with uniform warming expanding from the Philippine Sea to the Kuroshio and adjacent regions. The dipole (monopole) SST pattern in western North Pacific is modulated by La Niña and a strong (weak) EAWM. Analysis shows that the above two SST patterns during La Niña winter are equally important during 1950–2021. This study has identified the influence of the EAWM independent of ENSO on the SST anomalies in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions.

Statistical characteristics and mechanism of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole

AbstractThe statistical characteristics and mechanism of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) from 1980 to 2021 are analysed using observational datasets. The spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during SAOD is a dipole pattern oriented in the northeast‐southwest direction, and the intensity of the SSTA in the northeast pole (NEP) is stronger than that in the southwest pole (SWP). SAOD has a decadal variability of about 12 years during 1980–2007, along with obvious seasonal phase‐locking, with the anomaly pattern developing in boreal spring (March–May), peaking in summer (June–August) and decaying in autumn (September–November). For a positive SAOD event (positive SSTA in the NEP, negative in the SWP), positive SSTA in the NEP grows due to a decrease in wind speed and thus in latent heat flux loss in boreal spring, as well as an increase in shortwave radiation flux from boreal spring to summer. However, southwesterly wind anomalies drive cold water from high latitudes to the SWP in boreal spring and summer, coupled with strong wind speed anomalies enhancing the loss of latent heat flux, which contributes to a negative SSTA in the SWP. In addition, the intensity of the SSTA in the SWP is weaker than that in the NEP because of the contribution of smaller shortwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux and larger mixed layer depth in the SWP in summer. For a negative SAOD mode (negative SSTA in the NEP, positive in the SWP), the wind, shortwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux and mixed layer depth anomalies are the opposite of those under a positive SAOD event.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORMATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE SULLY ON SEPTEMBER11–17, 2020

Problem Statement and Purpose. Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth, causing great social and economic losses. Given the destructive impact of tropical cyclones, the question of their study and the impact of climate change on their behavior is considerable scientific interest. Tropical cyclones "draw" energy from the surface of the ocean. Tropical cyclones arise and develop over the water surface, the temperature of which is not lower than 26 °C. In the case when a well-developed tropical cyclone hits the colder surface of the ocean, it begins to fill up quickly. Thus, a change in the SST on the path of the tropical cyclone may affect the further development and intensity of the storm, and as a result, its destructive power. The purpose of the work is to determine the deviations of the ocean surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico under the influence of the passage of Hurricane Sally on September 11–17, 2020. Data & Methods. The analysis of sea surface temperature anomalies was performed on the basis of data from the NOAA OI SST V2 High Resolution Dataset Optimum Daily Interpolation of Sea Surface Temperature product, which is long-term climate data (period 1971–2000) and allows determination of daily of sea surface temperature anomalies with a step of 1/4°. Results. Against the background of positive Sea Surface Temperature anomalies associated with the tendency to increase Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, which has been observed in recent decades, in the places where the trajectory of Hurricane Sally passed during the next day, the appearance of negative Sea Surface Temperature anomalies was noted, which had a focal character and were comparable in area to horizontal dimensions of the hurricane. Over time, cells of negative Sea Surface Temperature anomalies increased in area and temperature deviation. The highest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies values were observed on September 15–16, 2020 and were –1 °C. Negative anomalies persisted after the passage of Sally for a month, after which a positive Sea Surface Temperature anomalies formed on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, occupying the entire water area of the Gulf. This duration of preservation of anomalies may be related to the circulation of the waters.

Impacts of the extratropical North Pacific on boreal summer Arctic circulation

A distinct characteristic of the Arctic summer atmospheric circulation is the anomalous anticyclonic circulation centered over the Arctic Ocean associated with significant Arctic warming. Previous studies have related the underlying mechanisms to the earlier spring Eurasian snowmelt and the tropical Pacific forcing. Here, the authors show that the Arctic summer anomalous anticyclonic circulation is significantly related to the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in spring, indicating a teleconnection from the extratropical North Pacific to the Arctic. The SSTA pattern is characterized by warm anomalies in the midlatitudes of the extratropical North Pacific surrounded by significant cold anomalies, resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but without significant signals in the tropics (referred to as the negative PDO-like pattern). This negative PDO-like pattern in May can stimulate a Rossby wave propagating from the Bering Sea to the Arctic and lead to an anomalous Arctic anticyclone which can be sustained during summer. Meanwhile, the negative PDO-like pattern can persist to summer and induce an anomalous surface low pressure over the Bering Sea in summer. This anomalous surface low causes anomalous rising motions and induces upper-level divergence anomalies which further intensify the summer Arctic anticyclone. The upper-level tropospheric Arctic anticyclone can force anomalous adiabatic descent over the Arctic and sub-Arctic, leading to significant adiabatic heating in the Arctic. As a result, a significant warming emerges over the Arctic with the center located in the middle troposphere. The connection between the negative PDO-like SSTAs and the summer Arctic anticyclone has been confirmed by numerical experiments.

Revisiting the Impacts of Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies on the Pacific Meridional Mode during the Decay of Strong Eastern Pacific El Niño Events

Abstract The Pacific meridional mode (PMM) can modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is also affected by ENSO-related tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Two tropical feedbacks on the PMM have been proposed: a positive one of central tropical Pacific SSTAs and a negative one of eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) SSTAs, the latter of which is suggested to be active only during strong eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events like those in 1982/83 and 1997/98. However, we find that no strong, negative PMM-like SSTAs appeared, although the PMM indices (PMMIs) were strongly negative in spring of 1983 and 1998. Observation and model experiments show that tropical warming in 1983 and 1998 not only occurred in the ETP but also extended to the date line, thus inducing wind anomalies unfavorable for establishing the wind–evaporation–SST feedback for a negative PMM in the subtropics. To understand the discrepancy between the large negative PMMIs and weak PMM-related subtropical cooling during strong EP El Niño events, we isolate the relative contributions of subtropical and tropical SSTAs to the PMMIs by calculating their spatial projections on the PMM. Analysis combined using observation and CMIP6 models shows that despite the large contribution from subtropical SSTAs, the large tropical SSTAs, especially the extreme ETP warming, could cause large negative PMMIs during strong EP El Niño events even without strong, negative subtropical SSTAs. Our study clarifies the impact of ETP warming in causing a negative PMM and indicates the overstatement of negative PMMIs by tropical SSTAs during strong EP El Niño events. Significance Statement This paper aims to reevaluate the previously proposed effect of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, like those in 1982/83 and 1997/98, on exciting a negative Pacific meridional mode (PMM). We find that although the PMM indices were strongly negative during the decay of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, the large negative PMM sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) could not be observed in the subtropical Pacific. Further diagnosis indicates that the PMM index can be large if strong SSTAs occur in eastern tropical Pacific even without subtropical SSTAs, implying that one should be careful when using the PMM index.

Influence of the Late-Winter North Atlantic Tripole Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Spring Land Surface Temperature in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Western Eurasia

Abstract The spring land surface temperature (LST) over western Eurasia, which is critical for ensuring food security, shows a clear interannual variability. Based on reanalysis data and numerical simulations, we investigated the potential influencing factors and the related mechanisms of spring LST variability in mid-to-high latitudes of western Eurasia (MHWEA). The results show that the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in February, which persist into spring, can significantly affect the spring LST variability over MHWEA. Analyses indicate that the positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole SSTAs pattern tends to increase the meridional SST gradient between positive SSTAs over the midlatitude North Atlantic and negative SSTAs over the south of Greenland, which strengthens the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity and thus induces more active transient eddy activities. Correspondingly, a Rossby wave train triggered by the eddy-mediated processes originates from the North Atlantic and propagates downstream, thereby causing anomalous anticyclonic circulation over MHWEA. Meanwhile, the westerly anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic accelerate the polar front jet and provide a favorable thermodynamical condition for the tropospheric warming over the Barents–Kara Seas by bringing warm and moist oceanic air. The polar warming tends to weaken the poleward temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes and then decelerate the Eurasian midlatitude westerlies, thus dynamically contributing to the circulation changes that can affect spring LST over MHWEA. Model results suggest that the link can be generally reproduced. Therefore, the late-winter North Atlantic tripole SSTAs may act as a precursor for the prediction of spring LST over western Eurasia. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand the mechanisms underlying the interannual variability of the spring land surface temperature over western Eurasia, which is of great significance in ensuring food security. Here we show that the positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in February can modulate the tropospheric warming over the Barents–Kara Seas and further decelerate the Eurasian midlatitude westerlies in spring, which benefits local surface warming over western Eurasia. Our results provide a precursor for forecasting spring land surface temperature over western Eurasia.

Insight into Asymmetry in the Impact of Different Types of ENSO on the NAO

Understanding the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is of critical significance for seasonal prediction. The present study found that both Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) intensity and east-west gradient in the mid-low latitude Pacific determine the linkage between ENSO and the NAO. Based on Niño3.4 SSTA intensity and the east-west gradient, ENSO events are classified into three types: strong intensity, weak intensity-strong gradient (WSG), and equatorial ENSOs. Note that the former two types are usually concurrent with a strong zonal SSTA gradient. In contrast, equatorial ENSO is often associated with weak intensity-weak gradient SSTAs confined in the equatorial Pacific. The anomalous circulation patterns in response to the three types of ENSO exhibit asymmetric features over the North Atlantic. The WSG-El Niño associated circulation anomaly resembles a negative NAO-like pattern, yet the strong and equatorial El Niño associated circulation anomalies show a neutral-NAO pattern. For La Niña events, their impact on the NAO mainly depends on the cold SSTA position rather than their intensity. The strong and WSG-La Niña associated negative SSTAs are centered in the equatorial-central Pacific and favor a steady positive NAO-like anomaly. The cold SSTA center of equatorial La Niña shifts to the equatorial-eastern Pacific and cannot profoundly influence the North Atlantic climate. The physical mechanisms are also investigated with a general circulation model.

Distinct Impacts of Two Types of Summer ENSO with Different Temporal Evolutions on the Asian Summer Monsoon: Role of the Tropical Indo-Western Pacific

Abstract ENSO shows great diversity in temporal evolution, exerting different climatic impacts on the global scale. Previous studies suggest that summer ENSOs can be classified into two types with different evolutions: “continuing ENSOs” persist from the previous winter and “emerging ENSOs” newly develop from late spring. In this study, we define two indices for continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August, which reflects the distinct characteristics of the two types of ENSO well. The two types of ENSO dominate the two leading modes of the SST variability in the tropical Indo–western Pacific (TIWP) and the related Asian summer monsoon anomalies. During continuing ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show positive anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific and negative ones in the New Guinea region. The warm Kelvin wave forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming propagates into the tropical western Pacific, exciting the meridional East Asia–Pacific/Pacific–Japan pattern and causing a dipole precipitation pattern in East Asia. During emerging ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show negative anomalies in the warm pool and positive ones in the western Indian Ocean. The negative SST anomalies in the warm pool induce a westward equatorial Rossby wave conducive to the suppression of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the Matsuno–Gill response to the warm pool cooling leads to negative anomalies in East Asian summer rainfall. This mechanism can be simulated well in the CMIP6 and Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere experiments. Significance Statement ENSO displays diversity in its amplitude, spatial pattern, temporal evolution, and impact. Although previous studies have systematically investigated the diversity of ENSO spatial locations, there are few studies on the diversity of ENSO evolution and the impacts on the Asian summer monsoon. Here, we define two indices for so-called continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August. Then, we reveal that the two leading modes of the tropical Indo–western Pacific SST variability are dominated by the two types of ENSO, respectively, and act as a bridge via which the two types of ENSO can exert different impacts on the Asian summer monsoon.