Negative Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

The mechanism of boreal summer SSTA phase-locking in the far eastern Pacific

In observations, the boreal winter El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking phenomenon is evident in the central-eastern Pacific. In the far eastern equatorial Pacific (FEP) and South American coastal regions, however, the peak of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) tends to occur in the boreal summer, with fewer winter peak events. By separating the direct ENSO forcing from the FEP SSTA, we found that the summer peak preference is contributed by the residual SSTA component, while the ENSO forcing provides only a small probability of winter peak. The dynamics of FEP SSTA phase-locking in observations and its biases in the climate models are investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model. In observations, the summer phase-locking of FEP SSTA is controlled by the seasonal modulation of the SSTA damping process. In contrast, in the climate models the strength of FEP SSTA phase-locking is much smaller than observed due to the overly negative SSTA damping rate.

Influencing factors in the stagnation of the Baiu front that induced heavy rainfall in July 2020 over Kyushu, Japan

The influencing factors of the long-term stagnation of the Baiu front that induced heavy rainfall in July 2020 over Kyushu, Japan, were examined. In July 2020, the position of the Baiu front from a weather chart at 130° E remained stationary over Kyushu for 20 days, and that was the longest from 2002 to 2021. By examining a certain index of the Yellow Sea High (YSH), which is a necessary condition for Baiu front stagnation near Kyushu, it was confirmed that in 2020, a positive high-pressure anomaly persisted over the Yellow Sea until the end of July. The YSH maintenance was due to the significant negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the Yellow Sea. The significant negative SST anomalies in the Yellow Sea were due to vertical mixing in ocean mixed layer in response to the strong winds of the extratropical cyclones. A rapid SST decrease ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 °C/day was repeatedly occurred by ocean mixed layer deepening in association with the passage of the extratropical cyclones. The anomalous long-term stagnation of YSH due to the negative SST anomalies could have caused the Baiu front to remain stagnant over Kyushu until the end of July.

Varying Relationship between La Niña and SST Anomalies in the Kuroshio and Adjacent Regions during Boreal Winter: Role of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

Abstract The winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions (KAR), which greatly influence the East Asian–North Pacific–North American climate, are closely related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This SST relationship between the KAR and the equatorial eastern-central Pacific is widely assumed to be symmetric between El Niño and La Niña. Compared to previous studies indicating the significant and strong KAR warming during El Niño winters, this study indicates weakly negative KAR SST anomalies in the composite analysis for all La Niña events. Positive winter KAR SST anomalies unexpectedly appear in approximately half of La Niña events, which counteract negative SST anomalies in the rest of La Niña events. Further analysis suggests that the impact of La Niña on KAR SST anomalies is modulated by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) during early winter. The weaker-than-normal EAWM offsets the anomalous northeasterly winds in the KAR induced by La Niña and then reinforces the KAR warming through warm oceanic advection. As for strong EAWM, it enhances the northeasterly winds to the west of an anomalous Philippine Sea cyclone associated with La Niña, leading to KAR cooling with more latent heat flux loss from the ocean and anomalous cold oceanic advection. Additionally, when the EAWM is independent of ENSO and is associated with the western Pacific pattern, it also can exhibit a pronounced influence on the KAR SST anomalies via the major processes of surface latent flux and horizontal heat advection in the ocean, accompanied by a change in Kuroshio transport. Significance Statement The interannual variability of SST from Philippine Sea to the Kuroshio and adjacent regions is considered an important forecast factor of the eastern China climate. Previous studies have reported a dipole SST pattern with Philippine Sea cooling and warming in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions during El Niño winter is dominant, and simply regarded that the effect of La Niña on western North Pacific SST anomalies was a mirror image of that of El Niño events. Here, we have found two distinctive SST patterns in the western North Pacific during La Niña winter. One type is the dipole SST pattern, characterized by Philippine Sea warming and by cooling in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions. The other type is the monopole SST pattern with uniform warming expanding from the Philippine Sea to the Kuroshio and adjacent regions. The dipole (monopole) SST pattern in western North Pacific is modulated by La Niña and a strong (weak) EAWM. Analysis shows that the above two SST patterns during La Niña winter are equally important during 1950–2021. This study has identified the influence of the EAWM independent of ENSO on the SST anomalies in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions.

Statistical characteristics and mechanism of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole

AbstractThe statistical characteristics and mechanism of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) from 1980 to 2021 are analysed using observational datasets. The spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) during SAOD is a dipole pattern oriented in the northeast‐southwest direction, and the intensity of the SSTA in the northeast pole (NEP) is stronger than that in the southwest pole (SWP). SAOD has a decadal variability of about 12 years during 1980–2007, along with obvious seasonal phase‐locking, with the anomaly pattern developing in boreal spring (March–May), peaking in summer (June–August) and decaying in autumn (September–November). For a positive SAOD event (positive SSTA in the NEP, negative in the SWP), positive SSTA in the NEP grows due to a decrease in wind speed and thus in latent heat flux loss in boreal spring, as well as an increase in shortwave radiation flux from boreal spring to summer. However, southwesterly wind anomalies drive cold water from high latitudes to the SWP in boreal spring and summer, coupled with strong wind speed anomalies enhancing the loss of latent heat flux, which contributes to a negative SSTA in the SWP. In addition, the intensity of the SSTA in the SWP is weaker than that in the NEP because of the contribution of smaller shortwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux and larger mixed layer depth in the SWP in summer. For a negative SAOD mode (negative SSTA in the NEP, positive in the SWP), the wind, shortwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux and mixed layer depth anomalies are the opposite of those under a positive SAOD event.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORMATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE SULLY ON SEPTEMBER11–17, 2020

Problem Statement and Purpose. Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth, causing great social and economic losses. Given the destructive impact of tropical cyclones, the question of their study and the impact of climate change on their behavior is considerable scientific interest. Tropical cyclones "draw" energy from the surface of the ocean. Tropical cyclones arise and develop over the water surface, the temperature of which is not lower than 26 °C. In the case when a well-developed tropical cyclone hits the colder surface of the ocean, it begins to fill up quickly. Thus, a change in the SST on the path of the tropical cyclone may affect the further development and intensity of the storm, and as a result, its destructive power. The purpose of the work is to determine the deviations of the ocean surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico under the influence of the passage of Hurricane Sally on September 11–17, 2020. Data & Methods. The analysis of sea surface temperature anomalies was performed on the basis of data from the NOAA OI SST V2 High Resolution Dataset Optimum Daily Interpolation of Sea Surface Temperature product, which is long-term climate data (period 1971–2000) and allows determination of daily of sea surface temperature anomalies with a step of 1/4°. Results. Against the background of positive Sea Surface Temperature anomalies associated with the tendency to increase Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, which has been observed in recent decades, in the places where the trajectory of Hurricane Sally passed during the next day, the appearance of negative Sea Surface Temperature anomalies was noted, which had a focal character and were comparable in area to horizontal dimensions of the hurricane. Over time, cells of negative Sea Surface Temperature anomalies increased in area and temperature deviation. The highest Sea Surface Temperature anomalies values were observed on September 15–16, 2020 and were –1 °C. Negative anomalies persisted after the passage of Sally for a month, after which a positive Sea Surface Temperature anomalies formed on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, occupying the entire water area of the Gulf. This duration of preservation of anomalies may be related to the circulation of the waters.

Impacts of the extratropical North Pacific on boreal summer Arctic circulation

A distinct characteristic of the Arctic summer atmospheric circulation is the anomalous anticyclonic circulation centered over the Arctic Ocean associated with significant Arctic warming. Previous studies have related the underlying mechanisms to the earlier spring Eurasian snowmelt and the tropical Pacific forcing. Here, the authors show that the Arctic summer anomalous anticyclonic circulation is significantly related to the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in spring, indicating a teleconnection from the extratropical North Pacific to the Arctic. The SSTA pattern is characterized by warm anomalies in the midlatitudes of the extratropical North Pacific surrounded by significant cold anomalies, resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but without significant signals in the tropics (referred to as the negative PDO-like pattern). This negative PDO-like pattern in May can stimulate a Rossby wave propagating from the Bering Sea to the Arctic and lead to an anomalous Arctic anticyclone which can be sustained during summer. Meanwhile, the negative PDO-like pattern can persist to summer and induce an anomalous surface low pressure over the Bering Sea in summer. This anomalous surface low causes anomalous rising motions and induces upper-level divergence anomalies which further intensify the summer Arctic anticyclone. The upper-level tropospheric Arctic anticyclone can force anomalous adiabatic descent over the Arctic and sub-Arctic, leading to significant adiabatic heating in the Arctic. As a result, a significant warming emerges over the Arctic with the center located in the middle troposphere. The connection between the negative PDO-like SSTAs and the summer Arctic anticyclone has been confirmed by numerical experiments.

Revisiting the Impacts of Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies on the Pacific Meridional Mode during the Decay of Strong Eastern Pacific El Niño Events

Abstract The Pacific meridional mode (PMM) can modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is also affected by ENSO-related tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). Two tropical feedbacks on the PMM have been proposed: a positive one of central tropical Pacific SSTAs and a negative one of eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) SSTAs, the latter of which is suggested to be active only during strong eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events like those in 1982/83 and 1997/98. However, we find that no strong, negative PMM-like SSTAs appeared, although the PMM indices (PMMIs) were strongly negative in spring of 1983 and 1998. Observation and model experiments show that tropical warming in 1983 and 1998 not only occurred in the ETP but also extended to the date line, thus inducing wind anomalies unfavorable for establishing the wind–evaporation–SST feedback for a negative PMM in the subtropics. To understand the discrepancy between the large negative PMMIs and weak PMM-related subtropical cooling during strong EP El Niño events, we isolate the relative contributions of subtropical and tropical SSTAs to the PMMIs by calculating their spatial projections on the PMM. Analysis combined using observation and CMIP6 models shows that despite the large contribution from subtropical SSTAs, the large tropical SSTAs, especially the extreme ETP warming, could cause large negative PMMIs during strong EP El Niño events even without strong, negative subtropical SSTAs. Our study clarifies the impact of ETP warming in causing a negative PMM and indicates the overstatement of negative PMMIs by tropical SSTAs during strong EP El Niño events. Significance Statement This paper aims to reevaluate the previously proposed effect of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, like those in 1982/83 and 1997/98, on exciting a negative Pacific meridional mode (PMM). We find that although the PMM indices were strongly negative during the decay of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, the large negative PMM sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) could not be observed in the subtropical Pacific. Further diagnosis indicates that the PMM index can be large if strong SSTAs occur in eastern tropical Pacific even without subtropical SSTAs, implying that one should be careful when using the PMM index.

Influence of the Late-Winter North Atlantic Tripole Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Spring Land Surface Temperature in Mid-to-High Latitudes of Western Eurasia

Abstract The spring land surface temperature (LST) over western Eurasia, which is critical for ensuring food security, shows a clear interannual variability. Based on reanalysis data and numerical simulations, we investigated the potential influencing factors and the related mechanisms of spring LST variability in mid-to-high latitudes of western Eurasia (MHWEA). The results show that the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in February, which persist into spring, can significantly affect the spring LST variability over MHWEA. Analyses indicate that the positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole SSTAs pattern tends to increase the meridional SST gradient between positive SSTAs over the midlatitude North Atlantic and negative SSTAs over the south of Greenland, which strengthens the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity and thus induces more active transient eddy activities. Correspondingly, a Rossby wave train triggered by the eddy-mediated processes originates from the North Atlantic and propagates downstream, thereby causing anomalous anticyclonic circulation over MHWEA. Meanwhile, the westerly anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic accelerate the polar front jet and provide a favorable thermodynamical condition for the tropospheric warming over the Barents–Kara Seas by bringing warm and moist oceanic air. The polar warming tends to weaken the poleward temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes and then decelerate the Eurasian midlatitude westerlies, thus dynamically contributing to the circulation changes that can affect spring LST over MHWEA. Model results suggest that the link can be generally reproduced. Therefore, the late-winter North Atlantic tripole SSTAs may act as a precursor for the prediction of spring LST over western Eurasia. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand the mechanisms underlying the interannual variability of the spring land surface temperature over western Eurasia, which is of great significance in ensuring food security. Here we show that the positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in February can modulate the tropospheric warming over the Barents–Kara Seas and further decelerate the Eurasian midlatitude westerlies in spring, which benefits local surface warming over western Eurasia. Our results provide a precursor for forecasting spring land surface temperature over western Eurasia.

Insight into Asymmetry in the Impact of Different Types of ENSO on the NAO

Understanding the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is of critical significance for seasonal prediction. The present study found that both Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) intensity and east-west gradient in the mid-low latitude Pacific determine the linkage between ENSO and the NAO. Based on Niño3.4 SSTA intensity and the east-west gradient, ENSO events are classified into three types: strong intensity, weak intensity-strong gradient (WSG), and equatorial ENSOs. Note that the former two types are usually concurrent with a strong zonal SSTA gradient. In contrast, equatorial ENSO is often associated with weak intensity-weak gradient SSTAs confined in the equatorial Pacific. The anomalous circulation patterns in response to the three types of ENSO exhibit asymmetric features over the North Atlantic. The WSG-El Niño associated circulation anomaly resembles a negative NAO-like pattern, yet the strong and equatorial El Niño associated circulation anomalies show a neutral-NAO pattern. For La Niña events, their impact on the NAO mainly depends on the cold SSTA position rather than their intensity. The strong and WSG-La Niña associated negative SSTAs are centered in the equatorial-central Pacific and favor a steady positive NAO-like anomaly. The cold SSTA center of equatorial La Niña shifts to the equatorial-eastern Pacific and cannot profoundly influence the North Atlantic climate. The physical mechanisms are also investigated with a general circulation model.

Distinct Impacts of Two Types of Summer ENSO with Different Temporal Evolutions on the Asian Summer Monsoon: Role of the Tropical Indo-Western Pacific

Abstract ENSO shows great diversity in temporal evolution, exerting different climatic impacts on the global scale. Previous studies suggest that summer ENSOs can be classified into two types with different evolutions: “continuing ENSOs” persist from the previous winter and “emerging ENSOs” newly develop from late spring. In this study, we define two indices for continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August, which reflects the distinct characteristics of the two types of ENSO well. The two types of ENSO dominate the two leading modes of the SST variability in the tropical Indo–western Pacific (TIWP) and the related Asian summer monsoon anomalies. During continuing ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show positive anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific and negative ones in the New Guinea region. The warm Kelvin wave forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming propagates into the tropical western Pacific, exciting the meridional East Asia–Pacific/Pacific–Japan pattern and causing a dipole precipitation pattern in East Asia. During emerging ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show negative anomalies in the warm pool and positive ones in the western Indian Ocean. The negative SST anomalies in the warm pool induce a westward equatorial Rossby wave conducive to the suppression of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the Matsuno–Gill response to the warm pool cooling leads to negative anomalies in East Asian summer rainfall. This mechanism can be simulated well in the CMIP6 and Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere experiments. Significance Statement ENSO displays diversity in its amplitude, spatial pattern, temporal evolution, and impact. Although previous studies have systematically investigated the diversity of ENSO spatial locations, there are few studies on the diversity of ENSO evolution and the impacts on the Asian summer monsoon. Here, we define two indices for so-called continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August. Then, we reveal that the two leading modes of the tropical Indo–western Pacific SST variability are dominated by the two types of ENSO, respectively, and act as a bridge via which the two types of ENSO can exert different impacts on the Asian summer monsoon.

A Trans-Season Out-of-Phase Relationship of Tropical Cyclogenesis between the Western North Pacific and South China Sea

Abstract The present study investigates the relationship of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis between the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) from 1979 to 2020. A significantly out-of-phase variation is found between spring [March–May (MAM)] TC genesis over the WNP and the following summer–fall [June–November (JJASON)] TC genesis over the SCS. More TCs over the WNP in MAM are followed by fewer TCs over the SCS in the succeeding JJASON. Composite analysis and numerical model experiments show that negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during MAM in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (CEP) and southeastern Indian Ocean work together to induce a lower-level cyclonic circulation over the WNP, with the latter more important. The positive specific humidity and ascending motion favor the TC genesis over the WNP in MAM. In the following JJASON, the SST anomalies are reversed in the tropical CEP. The positive precipitation anomalies over the western-central Pacific induced by positive SST anomalies further stimulate an anomalous zonal overturning circulation with anomalous descending motion and boundary layer divergence over the SCS. In addition, the persistent negative SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent (MC) induce an anomalous anticyclone to the west. Both processes lead to negative genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies and thus inhibit the TC genesis over the SCS. This out-of-phase relationship of TC genesis between the WNP and SCS also exists when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition years are removed. This finding may be helpful to improve the seasonal prediction of the SCS TC activity over the peak TC season.

Physical-biological drivers modulating phytoplankton seasonal succession along the Northern Antarctic Peninsula

The Northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) shows shifts in phytoplankton distribution and composition along its warming marine ecosystems. However, despite recent efforts to mechanistically understand these changes, little focus has been given to the phytoplankton seasonal succession, remaining uncertainties regarding to distribution patterns of emerging taxa along the NAP. To fill this gap, we collected phytoplankton (pigment and microscopy analysis) and physico-chemical datasets during spring and summer (November, February and March) of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 off the NAP. Satellite measurements (sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and chlorophyll-a) were used to extend the temporal coverage of analysis associated with the in situ sampling. We improved the quantification and distribution pattern of emerging taxa, such as dinoflagellates and cryptophytes, and described a contrasting seasonal behavior and distinct fundamental niche between centric and pennate diatoms. Cryptophytes and pennate diatoms preferentially occupied relatively shallower mixing layers compared with centric diatoms and dinoflagellates, suggesting differences between these groups in distribution and environment occupation over the phytoplankton seasonal succession. Under colder conditions, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were associated with positive anomalies of sea ice concentration and duration. Therefore, based on sea ice–phytoplankton growth relationship, large phytoplankton biomass accumulation was expected during the spring/summer of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 along the NAP. However, there was a decoupling between sea ice concentration/duration and phytoplankton biomass, characterizing two seasonal periods of low biomass accumulation (negative chlorophyll-a anomalies), associated with the top-down control in the region. These results provide an improved mechanistic understanding on physical-biological drivers modulating phytoplankton seasonal succession along the Antarctic coastal waters.

Connection between the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean and Temperature Anomaly across West Antarctic

West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula have experienced dramatic warming in austral spring since the 1970s. Using observations and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4), this study explores the physical mechanism by which the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean temperature anomaly mode (PIM) affects the dipolar surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies across the West Antarctic in austral spring. The positive phase of the PIM, characterized by positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean and negative SSTAs in the Maritime Continent, can generate two branches of stationary Rossby wave trains propagating from the tropical central Pacific and southeastern Indian Ocean to the West Antarctic, with an anticyclonic anomaly appearing over the Amundsen Sea. The northerlies advect warmer air to the Ross–Amundsen Seas, but southerlies advect colder air to the Antarctic Peninsula–Weddell Sea, resulting in the dipole of SAT anomalies over the West Antarctic. In this process, the role of tropical central-eastern Pacific SSTAs dominate, and it is amplified by the SSTAs around the Maritime Continent. The SSTAs in the western Indian Ocean combined with the SSTAs over the Maritime Continent further contribute to the western pole of the SAT. Only simulation that includes a prescribed PIM forcing can exactly reproduce the observations of the dipolar SAT response across the West Antarctic, indicating the need to treat the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans as a unified whole.

The Enhancement of the Summer Precipitation Teleconnection between India and the Northern Part of Eastern China after the Late 1990s

Abstract As subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon, summer precipitation variations in India and the northern part of eastern China (NEC) are physically connected. This study noted that the connection has been significantly enhanced after 1999 compared to 1979–98, which is due to the strengthened water vapor transportation connection between the two regions. That is associated with interdecadal variations of the combined effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) and the Indo-Pacific Walker cell. Against the background of La Niña, the strengthened NWPSH and Indo-Pacific Walker cell favor water vapor transport to India and the NEC since 1999. Accordingly, summer precipitation in the two regions increases simultaneously, leading to the enhancement of the summer precipitation teleconnection between them. In addition, the influence of TIO SSTAs and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on Indo-Pacific circulations decreases, which further enhances the relative importance of ENSO on the summer precipitation in the two regions. However, during 1979–98, La Niña SSTAs has weak effects on the NWPSH and Indo-Pacific Walker cell, the negative TIO SSTAs significantly weaken NWPSH, and the negative IOD also obstructs the westward extension of the Indo-Pacific Walker cell. Circulations and water vapor transportation related to the Indian Ocean and NEC summer precipitation are inconsistent, resulting in a weak precipitation teleconnection between them. The above conclusions are also validated by extreme case analysis and CMIP6 models. Significance Statement This paper mainly studies the influences of different types of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTAs on the interdecadal variations of the summer precipitation relationship between India and the northern part of eastern China (NEC). We find that the summer precipitation relationship between them is strengthened again after 1999, which deepens the understanding of summer precipitation in Asia and has great significance for improving dynamic models’ prediction skills. The interdecadal variations of the combined effects of the Indian and Pacific Oceans are the fundamental reasons for the interdecadal variations of precipitation relationships, which promotes the understanding of interactions of different oceans and their impacts on Asian climate.

Current AMO mitigating extreme high temperatures in Central Asia under global warming

AbstractUnder global warming, extreme high temperatures (EHTs) have become frequent and enhanced around the world. However, we found that the frequency and intensity of EHTs in Central Asia (CA) are decreasing over the last four decades when the effects of climate warming are removed. From 1979 to 2020, an interdecadal shift in CA's EHTs occurred around the mid‐1990s, preceded by high values (1983–1997) and followed by low values (1998–2016). The observational analysis and numerical simulations using National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 both demonstrate that the phase transition of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has an important influence on this interdecadal shift. During 1998–2016, the AMO was in a positive phase (+AMO), meaning warmer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the North Atlantic, which could lift the geopotential height and cause anticyclonic circulations over the basin. Through the cyclonic–anticyclonic circulation alternating teleconnection wave train over Eurasia, the atmospheric system over the North Atlantic could induce cyclonic circulations and reduce the geopotential heights over CA, that is, weaken the high pressure at the upper level, which is not conducive to warming and EHTs in CA. For the −AMO period (1983–1997), due to the similar atmospheric response mechanism, the negative SSTA in the North Atlantic and the wave train with reversed anomaly centres can be found, causing anticyclonic circulations and rising geopotential heights over CA. The high pressure at the upper level in CA would be strengthened, leading to favourable EHT conditions. Overall, we conclude that the current AMO (+AMO) has a mitigating role on the EHTs of CA, and the findings also emphasize that if the future AMO shifts to a negative phase, the EHTs of CA may worsen than at present.

Significant Inverse Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean SST on SIF of Indian Vegetation during the Summer Monsoon Onset Phase

Sea surface temperature (SST) substantially influences the land climate conditions through the co-variability of multiple climate variables, which in turn affect the structural and functional characteristics of terrestrial vegetation. Our study explored the varying responses of vegetation photosynthesis in India to the SST variations in the tropical Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon. To characterise the terrestrial photosynthetic activity, we used solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). Our results demonstrated a significant negative SST-SIF relationship during the onset phase of the summer monsoon: the SIF anomalies in the northern and central Indian regions decrease when strong warm SST anomalies persist in the tropical Indian Ocean. Further, SIF anomalies increase with cold anomalies of SST. However, the negative SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean are less impactful on SIF anomalies relative to the positive SST anomalies. The observed statistically significant SST–SIF link is feasible through atmospheric teleconnections. During monsoon onset, positive SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean favour weakened monsoon flow, decreasing moisture transport from the ocean to the Indian mainland. The resultant water deficiency, along with the high air temperature, created a stress condition and reduced the photosynthetic rate, thus demonstrating negative SIF anomalies across India. Conversely, negative SST anomalies strengthened monsoon winds in the onset period and increased moisture availability across India. Negative air temperature anomalies also dampen water stress conditions and increased photosynthetic activity, resulting in positive SIF anomalies. The identified SST-SIF relationship would be beneficial to generate a simple framework that aids in the detection of the probable impact on vegetation growth across India associated with the rapidly varying climate conditions in the Indian Ocean.

Eddies in the Arctic Ocean Revealed from MODIS Optical Imagery

Here we investigate properties of ocean eddies in the key Arctic region of the northern Greenland Sea and the Fram Strait using visible and infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua data acquired from April to September in 2007 and 2018–2020. We infer eddy properties using visual identification and automated processing of their signatures in sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) maps, and their gradients. Altogether, 450 (721) eddies were identified in SST (chl-a) data. Their radii span from 2 to 40 km (mean value 12 km). Most eddies are elliptical with a mean aspect ratio (eccentricity) of their axes equal 0.77 (0.64). Cyclones are smaller than anticyclones and prevail in both data sources. Cyclones tend to be more prevalent over shallow shelves, and anticyclones over deep water regions. Peak eddy activity is registered in June, while chl-a data also possess a second peak in April. In SST, the highest eddy probability is found along the East Greenland Current in the Nordbukta region at 76–78°N and along the West Spitsbergen Current at 78–80°N. In chl-a, most of them are observed in the central Fram Strait. The overall number of eddies with a positive chl-a anomaly, dominated by cyclones, is larger (62%) than that with a negative one (~38%). The number of eddies with positive and negative SST anomalies is nearly equal. Eddy translation velocities are 0.9–9.6 km/day (mean value 4.2 km/day). Despite frequent cloud and ice cover, MODIS data is a rich source of information on eddy generation hot-spots, their spatial properties, dynamics and associated SST and chl-a anomalies in the Arctic Ocean.

Why was the heat wave in the Yangtze River valley abnormally intensified in late summer 2022?

A record-breaking heat wave hit the Yangtze River valley during the boreal summer of 2022, and caused severe social and economic losses. One prominent feature of this long-lived heat event was its persistence and abnormal intensification in August. This study investigated the physical mechanisms be responsible for the intensification of this heat event in late summer under the background of a La Niña event. The prolonged heat event was directly related to the intensification and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which can be attributed to the synergistic effects of an anomalous western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and the eastward extension of the South Asian high (SAH) in the upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclone in the WNP, which was induced by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific, strengthened in August. The positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the western Pacific warm pool and enhanced in-situ convection led to anomalous high pressure over the Yangtze River valley via the local meridional circulation. Atmospheric convergence and descending motion over the Yangtze River valley was amplified in August as a result of the zonal shift in the SAH from the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau. The Silk Road pattern (SRP) index of August 2022 was the lowest since the 1990s. The abnormal negative phase of the SRP contributed to both the zonal shift in the SAH and the westward extension of the WNPSH, which led to the abnormal intensification of the heat event over the Yangtze River valley in August 2022.

The first tree-ring reconstrruction of streamflow variability over the last ∼250 years in the Lower Danube

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize climate variability and change prior to the instrumental record, in order to improve our estimates of climate extremes and to provide a baseline for climate change projections. Most of these reconstructions are focused on temperature, precipitation, and/or drought indices and, to a lesser extent, reconstruct streamflow variability. In this study, the first regional tree-ring width chronology (i.e. Quercus sp.), from the Caraorman forest (Danube Delta, Romania), was used to reconstruct the last ∼250 years of annual (from November previous year to July of the current year) streamflow of the Lower Danube River. The obtained results indicate a stable and significant correlation between the tree-ring width index from the Caraorman forest and the Danube streamflow at the Ceatal Izmail hydrologic station situated in the southeastern part of Europe. Interannual streamflow variation for the analyzed period indicates 14 extremely high flow years, with streamflow greater than 8780 m3/s (1770, 1771, 1799, 1836, 1838, 1839, 1871, 1876, 1877, 1879, 1940, 1941, 1997 and 2010) and 14 extremely low flow years, with streamflow lower than 5300 m3/s (1741, 1745, 1750, 1753, 1773, 1794, 1812, 1832, 1843, 1882, 1899, 1921, 1964 and 1994). Periods characterized by pluvials in the lower Danube Delta are associated with a low-pressure system centered over Europe, positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean, and negative SST anomalies over the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas. These large-scale conditions favor the advection of moist air from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea towards the southeastern part of Romania, which in turn leads to high precipitation rates over this region. Opposite to this, low streamflow years are associated with a high-pressure system centered over Europe, characterized by a northward shift of the storm tracks and negative SST anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean, and positive SST anomalies over the Baltic, North, and Mediterranean Seas. Based on our results, we argue that the reconstruction of river streamflow data based on the tree-ring width has important scientific and practical implications for a better understanding of the streamflow variation of the past, necessary for water resource management and environmental-hydrological protection.

Modulation of the Influence of ENSO on Northward-Moving Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific by the North Atlantic Tripole SST Anomaly Pattern

Abstract The frequency characteristics of northward-moving tropical cyclones (NTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed, and the possible combined effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is investigated. Results show that the NTC frequency in summer shows obvious interannual and decadal variations. The SSTA in the eastern tropical Pacific has an effect on the NTC frequency, but this relationship is modulated by the NAT on the decadal time scale. During positive NAT phases, the effect of ENSO on NTCs is clear. There are fewer NTCs in El Niño–following years, whereas in La Niña–following years the NTC frequency is higher. However, during negative NAT phases, only El Niño has an effect on the NTC frequency, whereas there is no obvious feature found for La Niña, which may be related to the asymmetry of ENSO. The combined effect of La Niña and positive NAT phases presents an anomalous meridional dipole circulation at the low latitudes and mid–high latitudes near East Asia, which leads to TCs moving northward. The cold SSTA response in the tropical Indian Ocean may contribute to an anomalous cyclone in the WNP. The negative–positive–negative NAT SSTA mode can persist into the ensuing summer and favor wave pattern propagating eastward along the high-level jet waveguide so that there exists an anomalous anticyclone in Northeast Asia, which helps TCs move farther north. The influence of El Niño modulated by negative NAT phases is roughly opposite.