Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Phase Research Articles

Process Evaluation of Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation Prediction in the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System

AbstractThis study evaluates the prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its associated energy budget as simulated by the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ensemble forecast system. By classifying NAO events into high‐ and low‐skill cases, we analyzed the stationarity of NAO patterns and the role of baroclinic energy conversion in NAO prediction. In both positive and negative NAO phases, high‐skill cases exhibited more stationary NAO patterns than low‐skill cases. The analysis of processes indicates that high‐skill NAO cases are due to stronger baroclinic maintenance of NAO, with its initial position at the climatological thermal trough, whereas low‐skill NAO cases result from forecast biases in wave propagation from the North Pacific. Specifically, biases in baroclinic energy conversion in the meridional direction from week 2 lead to weak advection of the eddy available potential energy (EAPE), resulting in lower prediction skill.

Tracking orbital and suborbital climate variability in the westernmost Mediterranean over the past 13,000 years: New insights from paleoperspectives on marine productivity responses

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of a sediment record from the Western Alboran Basin (core GP04PC), utilizing palynological and geochemical tools to investigate marine productivity responses to orbital and suborbital climate variability over the past 13,000 years. High productivity during the Younger Dryas humid phase (∼12.4–11.7 ka) and the Holocene humidity optimum (∼10.5–8.5 ka) was driven by increased local river discharges resulting from rapid mountain glaciers melting and enhanced regional precipitation. During the late Holocene, frequent flood events linked to negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) incursions potentially led to multicentennial-scale productivity increases. The findings indicate that periods characterized by wet regional conditions and increased river run-off, influenced by orbital (e.g., insolation cycles) and suborbital factors (e.g., NAO and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes), consistently enhanced marine productivity in the Western Alboran Basin. The study also reveals that the current high productivity and carbon export in the Western Alboran Basin are maintained by active upwelling and downwelling systems driven by a persistent positive NAO phase following the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that occurred around 6.5 ka. Furthermore, geochemical proxies support a strong detrital influence on trace metal concentrations, including barium (Ba), in deep Western Alboran sediments during the Holocene. This limits the use of Ba/Al ratios for accurately reconstructing productivity changes and highlights the importance of dinocyst analysis as a complementary tool for robust marine productivity reconstructions in this region. These observations provide valuable paleoperspectives on marine ecosystem responses to climate variability, contributing to the development of robust long-term productivity models essential for adapting to ongoing environmental changes in the region, and demonstrating the strong influence of North Atlantic climate and ocean dynamics on centennial-scale productivity oscillations in this region.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Decadal Variability of the Upper Subtropical‐Tropical Atlantic Ocean

AbstractIn the northeastern tropical Atlantic, a region of high potential vorticity (PV) determines the size of the exchange window for the interior thermocline flow of the subtropical cell via its variations in strength and extent. Variability of this PV barrier has the potential to impact the ventilation of the tropical Atlantic on decadal timescales. Here, the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the PV barrier related to isopycnals within the thermocline of the subtropical‐tropical Atlantic Ocean is assessed from Argo observations for the time period of 2006–2022. Relative to the negative NAO phase (2009–2010), during the positive NAO phase (2014–2019), the North Atlantic subtropical high and the northeast trades are intensified. Satellite‐derived wind stress curl shows increased upwelling/downwelling on the equatorward/poleward side of the trade wind zone, respectively. In the subtropical‐tropical Atlantic, a symmetric pattern of isopycnal heave is observed: rising isopycnals within 20°N and 20°S and sinking poleward of that. With rising isopycnals, the PV barrier in the northeastern tropical Atlantic becomes stronger. Analyses of geostrophic velocities and the Sverdrup streamfunction show that during the positive NAO phase there are increased equatorward velocities at thermocline level along the western boundary and reduced velocities through the interior as a result of intensified northeast trades and therefore a strengthened PV barrier. Intensified trades lead to enhanced subduction of thermocline waters and, independent of that, to a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent transport as observed at the mooring site at 0°, 23°W, likely via the pulling effect of the subtropical cells.

Revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of water vapor and its link to North Atlantic Oscillation over Greenland using GPS and ERA5 data

Precipitation plays an important role in the interannual mass variations of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and is highly influenced by atmospheric circulation change. The relationship between precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been revealed by many studies, but the role of water vapor transportation in the NAO-precipitation relationship was rarely investigated. Therefore, to fill the knowledge gap of how water vapor changes and responds to NAO in space and time, we applied Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA) to the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the fifth-generation reanalysis dataset of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ERA5) Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) data to extract the interannual PWV signals in Greenland. Results show that the interannual PWV signals overall increased in 2008–2011, decreased in 2011–2015, and increased in 2015–2021. The amplitudes of the interannual signals derived from both the GPS PWV and ERA5 basin-averaged PWV exhibited an overall southwest-northeast decreasing gradient. We also found anticorrelation between the interannual PWV signals and the NAO signal over Greenland but the correlation coefficients are not statistically significant, and the correlation coefficients in most cases were less than −0.65, indicating that positive (negative) NAO phase decreased (increased) the water vapor content. The Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) results illustrated that the interannual signals derived from both the GPS site-dependent and the ERA5 basin-averaged PWV had similar dominant frequencies to that of the NAO signal, reinforcing their correlations. This study reveals the spatiotemporal pattern of the interannual water vapor and its linkage to the NAO, providing a new perspective for understanding the climate change on Greenland.

Interdecadal change in the response of winter North Atlantic Oscillation to the preceding autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas around the early 1990s

Based on the reanalysis data for the period 1980–2019, this study reveals that the linkage of autumn sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKSIC) to the subsequent winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) underwent an interdecadal weakening in the early 1990s. Such a weakening is attributed to the discrepancy in the tropospheric warming resulting from the decrease in the interannual variability of the BKSIC from the former period to the latter period. During the former period (1980–1993), the decrease in autumn BKSIC can induce strong warming in the troposphere through enhancing the in-situ diabatic heating, significantly weakening the circumpolar westerly. The weakening of autumn circumpolar westerly then promotes the upward propagation of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Till winter, the EP flux propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. It leads to significant positive stream function anomalies over the Greenland-Barents Seas region, accompanied with negative stream function anomalies over Western Europe. They are linked by a strong southeastward-propagating wave activity flux and result in a negative NAO phase with its southern center located eastward. During the latter period (1994–2019), due to smaller interannual variability of the BKSIC, its resultant warming of the tropospheric temperature is much weaker, not conducive to the aforementioned stratosphere-troposphere interaction and thus diluting the relationship between autumn BKSIC and the subsequent winter NAO.

Multi-Temporal Variabilities of Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia and Associated Planetary-Scale Climate Modes

Arid- and semi-arid Central Asia is particularly sensitive to climate change. The changes in extreme precipitation in Central Asia stemming from climate warming are the subject of intense debate within the scientific community. This study employed a Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the annual occurrence number of extreme precipitation in Central Asia from May to September during the period of 1951–2005. Their modulating planetary-scale climate modes were identified by using linear regression analysis. Two major scales of the temporal variability were derived: 2–3.9 years and 4–6 years. The dominant variability was a 2–3.9-year scale and was associated with the negative phase of the Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern. The 4–6-year scale provided a secondary contribution and was closely linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These planetary climate modes acted as precursors of extreme precipitation over Central Asia. The negative phase of POL directly contributed to a negative height anomaly over Central Asia, which was intimately related to extreme precipitation. In contrast, the negative NAO phase possibly manifested as a Rossby wave source, which was subsequently exported to Central Asia through a negative–positive–negative Rossby wave train.

Extreme Recreational Conditions in the Black Sea Resorts Associated with the North Atlantic Climate

The tourist and recreational conditions of the Mediterranean-Black Sea resorts are closely related to hydrometeorological anomalies, which in turn are largely associated with the North Atlantic climate. The aim of this paper was to study the change and variability of the bioclimatic indices and their extremes at the Black Sea resorts (on the example of Yalta, Southern coast of Crimea, and Sochi, Caucasian coast) associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO). Using daily NCEP/NCAR (2.5° × 2.5°) and E-OBS (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis datasets, bioclimatic indices (wind cooling index, weight oxygen content, and equivalent-effective temperature) were calculated for January and July in 1950–2013/2018. The extreme index values were obtained using the 5th and 95th percentile relative thresholds. The results suggest that bioclimatic indices in Yalta are more sensitive to the global warming effect than those in Sochi, likely due to the geographical features. As a result, Yalta is becoming a year-round resort. It was shown for both resorts that negative EAO phase is significantly manifested in the increase of windy days in July versus the increase of windless days in the positive phase, and in the more frequent fresh and cold days in July (versus the opposite conditions in the positive phase only in Yalta). The NAO manifestations are mostly less pronounced than those of the EAO and are more significant in Sochi (mostly in January and in the negative NAO phase). Thus, it was shown that extreme values of bioclimatic indices occur at both resorts on the interannual scale depending on the NAO and EAO phases, but the conditions remain in the comfort range for now, even with the significant linear trends. The study can be expanded to other Mediterranean–Black Sea resorts for their sustainable development in a changing climate.

Mid to Late Holocene moisture evolution of semi-arid Mongolia and its anti-phase relationship with monsoonal Asia

The spatial and temporal interaction of the Westerlies and the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are often suggested to drive the Holocene moisture evolution of semi-arid Mongolia and Central Asia, but so far, it has remained a controversial topic of debate. In this context, we established a high-resolution 7.4 cal ka paleohydrological record from Shireet Naiman Nuur in the central Mongolian Khangai Mountains using compound-specific biomarker δ2H analyses. Our results suggest that drier conditions from 7.4 to 3.6 cal ka BP and wetter conditions since 3.6 cal ka BP until present are indeed related to changes in atmospheric circulation pattern. A strong anti-phasing between our record and records in monsoonal Asia shows that ASM intensification during the Mid Holocene shifted the ASM limit and adjacent subsidence dry-zones northwards, leading to increased dryness at Shireet Naiman Nuur. Overall wetter conditions during the Late Holocene are related to negative North Atlantic Oscillation phases advecting moisture into central Mongolia and Shireet Naiman Nuur by southerly-displaced Westerlies.

Influence of the previous North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the spring dust aerosols over North China

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been confirmed to be closely related to the weather and climate in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere; however, its effect and mechanism upon the formation of dust events (DEs) in China have rarely been discussed. By using the station observation dataset and multi-reanalysis datasets, it is found that the spring dust aerosols (DAs) in North China (30–40∘ N, 105–120∘ E), a non-dust source region, show high values with a strong interannual variability, and the spring DAs in North China are significantly correlated with the previous winter's NAO. According to the nine spring DEs affected significantly by the negative phase of the preceding winter's NAO in North China during 1980–2020, it is shown that before the outbreak of DEs, due to the transient eddy momentum (heat) convergence (divergence) over the DA source regions, the zonal wind speed increases in the upper-level troposphere, strengthening the zonal wind in the middle–lower levels through momentum downward transmission. Simultaneously, there is transient eddy momentum (heat) divergence (convergence) around the Ural Mountains, which is favorable for the establishment and maintenance of the Ural ridge, as well as the development of the air temperature and vorticity advections. The combined effects of temperature and vorticity advections result in the Siberian Highs and Mongolian cyclone to be established, strengthen, and move southward near the surface, guiding the cold air from high latitudes southward, and is favorable for the uplift and transmission of DAs to North China downstream. Simultaneously, the changes in upstream transient eddy flux transport can cause both energy and mass divergence in North China, resulting in diminishing winds during DEs, which would facilitate the maintenance of dust aerosols here and promote the outbreak of DEs. This study reveals the impact of transient eddy flux transport on the dusty weather anomalies modulated by the NAO negative signal in North China, which deepens the understanding of the formation mechanism of DEs in China.

The impact of changes in steering patterns on the probability of hurricanes making landfall in the New York City area

AbstractWe investigated the variability of annual frequencies of upper air steering patterns that were similar to the one that resulted in the recurvature of Hurricane Sandy's track towards the US east coast in 2012. The analyses showed that such steering patterns could occur over 50 times yearly, with higher probabilities in the colder season. The frequencies of these events have decreased since the beginning of the observations in 1979; however, this trend has reversed in the past 10–15 years. These trends are aligned with trends in the intensity of the negative phase North Atlantic Oscillation and the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation Index. In addition to the long‐term trends, we observed a significant periodicity in the annual frequencies of the steering pattern around 6–8 years. Combining the probabilities of relevant steering patterns with the probabilities of hurricanes per season in the relevant domain led to the conclusion that the overall probability of events like Sandy increased from approximately 0.26% in 1979 (0.48 days) to 0.45% (0.81 days) per season since 1979.

Phase asymmetry in synoptic eddy feedbacks on the negatively-skewed winter NAO

The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits a significantly negative skewness (−0.68) that the stronger dynamic structure characterizes the negative NAO. This study quantitatively investigates the phase asymmetries in different types of synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks associated with the winter-mean NAO, and the roles of different physical processes in eddy feedbacks are further clarified based on previous theories. The integrated feedback induced by eddy vorticity flux and eddy heat flux is stronger in the negative phase of NAO compared to the positive phase, which may provide an atmospheric internal dynamic explanation for the negative skewness of the winter NAO. This phase asymmetry of integrated eddy feedback is majorly contributed by the eddy vorticity flux–induced dynamic feedback, whose related physical processes involving eddy transport and secondary meridional circulation are stronger under the negative NAO. The eddy transport directly generates positive feedback to the NAO flow, and in addition, the secondary meridional circulation modulates the initially vertically-uneven dynamic feedback to become barotropic. In contrast, the weakly positive net contribution of eddy heat flux–induced thermodynamic feedback, which has received less attention in previous research, can somewhat dampen the phase asymmetry of integrated eddy feedback. The eddy heat flux generates positive (negative) feedback on the NAO flow in the lower (upper) troposphere via a secondary meridional circulation, thus leading to the integrated synoptic-scale eddy feedback being relatively stronger (weaker) in the lower (upper) troposphere.

Relationship between cold season air temperature in the Baltic sea region and the Arctic sea ice extent

The variability of the atmospheric circulation described by the AO and NAO indices has a significant impact on the fluctuations of climate parameters in the Baltic Sea region. Many research show, that a decline in Arctic Sea ice extent increases the likelihood of negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, and in the future could lead to more frequent relatively cold weather events during winter months in Baltic Sea region. This research is important for understanding possible teleconnections between Arctic Sea ice and atmospheric circulation (AO and NAO). In addition, this research helps to better understand the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice extent and Baltic Sea region air temperature, as well as AO and NAO circulation impact on the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region. A statistically significant decrease in the Arctic Sea ice extent and a statistically significant increase in the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region have been determined. The obtained results show that the expansion of the Arctic Sea ice in January-February with a delay of one month determines the AO and NAO values (correlation coefficients vary from 0.32 to 0.55). This means that if Arctic Sea ice decreases during winter months, AO and NAO indices are more likely to become negative as well. However, as the obtained correlations are not very strong, the results are insufficient to confirm the hypothesis that the Arctic Sea ice extent impacts negative AO and NAO phases likelihood and requires further research. A strong correlation between the Baltic Sea region air temperature and the values of AO/NAO indices has been established. The obtained results show that the Baltic Sea region air temperature variability in December-March is greatly influenced by the AO and NAO phases. Keywords: teleconnections, Arctic Sea ice, AO, NAO, Baltic Sea region, air temperature.

Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming

AbstractBoreal winter (December–February) 2020/2021 in the North Atlantic/European region was characterised by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Although this was captured within the ensemble spread of predictions from the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system (GloSea5), with 17% of ensemble members predicting an NAO less than zero, the forecast ensemble mean was shifted towards a positive NAO phase. The observed monthly NAO anomalies were particularly negative in January and February, following an early January sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), and a prolonged period of Phase 6 or 7 of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in late January/early February. In contrast, predictions showed the expected teleconnection from the observed La Niña, with a positive NAO signal resulting from a weakening of the Aleutian Low leading to a reduction in tropospheric wave activity, an increase in polar vortex strength and a reduced chance of an SSW. Forecasts initialised later in the winter season successfully predicted the negative NAO in January and February once the SSW and MJO were within the medium range timescale. GloSea5 likely over‐predicted the strength of the La Niña which we estimate caused a small negative bias in the SSW probability. However, this error is smaller than the uncertainty in SSW probability from the finite forecast ensemble size, emphasising the need for large forecast ensembles. This case study also demonstrates the advantage of continuously updated lagged ensemble forecasts over a ‘burst’ ensemble started on a fixed date, since a change in forecast signal due to events within the season can be detected early and promptly communicated to users.

Mechanism of winter precipitation variations in the southern arid Central Asia

AbstractThe southern arid central Asia (SACA, 35.25°–45°N, 46.25°–80°E) is influenced by Mediterranean type of climate with wet cool season. This study analysed the variations of winter precipitation and their mechanisms during 1979–2017. The results suggest the variations of winter precipitation in SACA are influenced by two water vapour pathways, which are closely linked to a low‐latitude high‐pressure anomaly near Indian subcontinent and the mid‐high latitude North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. Specifically, at low latitudes, the northern Indian Ocean heated by El Niño causes the anomalous intensification of the subtropical high throughout the low latitude region, especially over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in increased water vapour transport from the northern Indian Ocean to SACA. This result of low latitude is also supported by model simulations. At middle and high latitudes, the negative NAO phase leads to a southward displacement of the water vapour pathway and carries water vapour to pass over number of upwind water bodies, resulting in the transport of more westerly‐associated water vapour to SACA. Further analysis showed that there is a northwest‐southeast teleconnection wave train, from the North Atlantic to Central Asia and to the Indian subcontinent, which allows wave fluxes originating in the North Atlantic and the northern Indian Ocean to propagate from high and low latitudes, respectively, to the study area. At the same time, high‐latitude cold air advection, brought by the low‐pressure system in Central Asia, converges with the flow of warm water vapour from the low‐latitude northern Indian Ocean, generating an ascending motion and reducing atmospheric static stability, and thereby lead to increasing precipitation in SACA. Therefore, the key to determining the origin of precipitation variations in SACA is understanding the interaction of large‐scale circulation systems at low and mid‐high latitudes.Key wordsarid Central Asia, precipitation, dynamic mechanism

Wave Regime and Wave‐Current Coupling in an Upwelling–Driven Bay: Seasonal and Inter‐Annual Variability

AbstractData from an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), a wave‐gauge, a met‐ocean buoy and model results provide new insights into the wave regime in a partially sheltered upwelling‐driven bay, the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberia), and the adjacent continental shelf from June 2013 to August 2014. Swell on the NW‐Iberian shelf comes mainly from NW directions, while wind sea comes from the NW under upwelling conditions, and from the SW under downwelling conditions. As the ria is protected from the NW and exposed to the SW, swell is almost always attenuated when entering the bay, and wave height inside the ria depends mostly on shelf wind sea variability. During the upwelling season, swell and wind sea barely enter the ria and wave heights inside the ria are small (0.21 m). During the downwelling season, shelf wind sea directly enters the ria, contributing more to the total wave height which achieves its maximum values (0.46 m). There is a cumulative action of wave and currents (wave current coupling, WCC) that is stronger during the downwelling season. The WCC entails an increase in the seabed energy which could reinforce bottom remineralization. The inter‐annual variability (2009–2016) of winter wave height and WCC in the ria is associated with the combined role played by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) indices. The highest waves and strongest WCC occur during the coincidence of negative NAO and positive WEPA phases and can have potentially relevant repercussions on the ecosystem services of the ria.

Hydroclimate variability during the last 2700 years based on stalagmite multi-proxy records in the central-western Mediterranean

This study presents the first high-resolution speleothem-based hydrological reconstruction for much of the last 2.7 kyr in the central-western Mediterranean. The paleohydrological information comes from a combination of five U-Th dated stalagmites from two Mallorca island caves. Interpretations are based on high-resolution records of δ18O, δ13C and trace element analyses combined with information from mineralogical X-ray diffraction, fabrics and morphological features, and cave monitoring data.None of the studied stalagmites cover the whole 2.7 kyr period but they provide sufficient overlap to replicate most of the discussed climatic intervals with the exception of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which is represented by a hiatus. Taking into account the results of five years farmed calcite collected in glass plates and cave environmental parameters, we argue that main patterns in the stalagmite geochemical records are mostly controlled by changing rates of prior calcite precipitation (PCP) that respond to hydrological changes in the region. We apply a principal component analysis to the stalagmite geochemical data set and a composite δ18O record to obtain a robust regional hydrological record.This record supports wet conditions for the early Roman Period (RP), the first half of the Early Middle Ages (EMA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and drier conditions for the late RP, the late EMA and the entire MCA. These results are discussed in the context of other climatic and oceanographic records from the region including paleo North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records. This ocean-atmosphere approach suggests complex non-stationary climate patterns for the last 2.7 kyr, including the occurrence of both wet-warm and wet-cold intervals and underlying the complex interaction of factors controlling climate evolution in the region. Overall, positive (negative) NAO phases appear coincident with drier (wetter) conditions for all the examined period at decadal time-scales.

Bivariate Modelling of a Teleconnection Index and Extreme Rainfall in a Small North Atlantic Island

This paper explores practical applications of bivariate modelling via copulas of two likely dependent random variables, i.e., of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) coupled with extreme rainfall on the small island of Madeira, Portugal. Madeira, due to its small size (∼740 km2), very pronounced mountain landscape, and location in the North Atlantic, experiences a wide range of rainfall regimes, or microclimates, which hamper the analyses of extreme rainfall. Previous studies showed that the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme rainfall is at its largest in the North Atlantic sector, with the likelihood of increased rainfall events from December through February, particularly during negative NAO phases. Thus, a copula-based approach was adopted for teleconnection, aiming at assigning return periods of daily values of an NAO index (NAOI) coupled with extreme daily rainfalls—for the period from December 1967 to February 2017—at six representative rain gauges of the island. The results show that (i) bivariate copulas describing the dependence characteristics of the underlying joint distributions may provide useful analytical expressions of the return periods of the coupled previous NAOI and extreme rainfall and (ii) that recent years show signs of increasing climate variability with more anomalous daily negative NAOI along with higher extreme rainfall events. These findings highlight the importance of multivariate modelling for teleconnections of prominent patterns of climate variability, such as the NAO, to extreme rainfall in North Atlantic regions, especially in small islands that are highly vulnerable to the effects of abrupt climate variability.

Influence of atmospheric patterns and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on vegetation dynamics in Iceland using Remote Sensing

ABSTRACT In this study, the relationship between vegetation dynamics and atmospheric patterns over Iceland from 2001-2019 has been assessed using remote sensing. This study is based on MODIS NDVI images, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that the vegetation coverage in Iceland reaches a maximum in the period from the middle of July to late August, with an average of about 65% of the total area (66858 km2). There is not a strong relationship between NAO phases and the occurrence of the dry (less vegetation) or green months, which means that a dry year can be accompanied by a negative NAO phase (i.e. July 2009 with NDVI anomaly=-3.35 and NAO =-2.15) or with a positive phase (September 2005 with NDVI anomaly=-2.23 and NAO=0.63). The most important factor influencing the occurrence of months with denser/less dense vegetation is shifting west/eastward of Greenland Low height (GL), which is accompanied by a green/dry month in Iceland, respectively. The knowledge of this can help us to understand the variations in Iceland's vegetation and also enables us to have a closer look at the impact of changes in global atmospheric patterns on the vegetation productivity in Iceland.

Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitations and storm track variability in southeast Canada and the northeast United States

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects atmospheric variability from eastern North America to Europe. Although the link between the NAO and winter precipitations in eastern North America has been the focus of previous work, only few studies have considered extreme precipitation and hitherto provided clear physical explanations on these relationships. In this study we revisit and extend the analysis of the effect of the NAO on mean and heavy winter precipitations over a large domain covering southeast Canada and the northeastern United States. Furthermore, we use the recent ERA5 reanalysis dataset (1979–2018), which currently has the highest available horizontal resolution for a global reanalysis (0.25∘), to track extratropical cyclones to delve into the physical processes behind the relationship between NAO and precipitation, snowfall, snowfall-to-precipitation ratio (S∕P), and snow cover depth anomalies in the region. In particular, our results show that positive NAO phases are associated with less snowfall over a wide region covering Nova Scotia, New England and the Mid-Atlantic of the United States relative to negative NAO phases. Over the same area, the analysis of heavy snowfall revealed that there are up to twice as many heavy snowfall events during negative phases compared to positive phases. Therefore, a significant negative correlation is also seen between S∕P and the NAO over this region. This is due to a decrease (increase) in cyclogenesis of coastal storms near the United States east coast during positive (negative) NAO phases, as well as a northward (southward) displacement of the mean storm track over North America.

The Role of Samalas Mega Volcanic Eruption in European Summer Hydroclimate Change

In this study, the role of AD 1258 Samalas mega volcanic eruption in the summer hydroclimate change over Europe and the corresponding mechanisms are investigated through multi-member ensemble climate simulation experiments based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results show that the CESM simulations are consistent with the reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the historical records of European climate. Europe experiences significant summer cooling in the first three years after the Samalas mega volcanic eruption, peaking at −3.61 °C, −4.02 °C, and −3.21 °C in year 1 over the whole Europe, Southern Europe, and Northern Europe, respectively. The summer surface air temperature (SAT, °C) changes over the European continent are mainly due to the direct weakening of shortwave solar radiation induced by volcanic aerosol. The summer precipitation over the European continent shows an obvious dipole distribution characteristic of north-south reverse phase. The precipitation increases up to 0.42 mm/d in year 1 over Southern Europe, while it decreases by −0.28 mm/d in year 1 over Northern Europe, respectively. Both simulations and reconstructions show that the centers with the strongest increase in precipitation have always been located in the Balkans and Apennine peninsulas along the Mediterranean coast over Southern Europe, and the centers with the strongest precipitation reduction are mainly located in the British Isles and Scandinavia over northwestern Europe. The negative response of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the north and negative SLP anomaly in the south is excited in summer. The low tropospheric wind anomaly caused by the negative phase of NAO in summer affects the water vapor transport to Europe, resulting in the distribution pattern of summer precipitation in Europe, which is drying in the north and wetting in the south. The knowledge gained from this study is crucial to better understand and predict the potential impacts of single mega volcanic eruption on the future summer hydroclimate change in Europe.