Abstract
In this study, the role of AD 1258 Samalas mega volcanic eruption in the summer hydroclimate change over Europe and the corresponding mechanisms are investigated through multi-member ensemble climate simulation experiments based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results show that the CESM simulations are consistent with the reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the historical records of European climate. Europe experiences significant summer cooling in the first three years after the Samalas mega volcanic eruption, peaking at −3.61 °C, −4.02 °C, and −3.21 °C in year 1 over the whole Europe, Southern Europe, and Northern Europe, respectively. The summer surface air temperature (SAT, °C) changes over the European continent are mainly due to the direct weakening of shortwave solar radiation induced by volcanic aerosol. The summer precipitation over the European continent shows an obvious dipole distribution characteristic of north-south reverse phase. The precipitation increases up to 0.42 mm/d in year 1 over Southern Europe, while it decreases by −0.28 mm/d in year 1 over Northern Europe, respectively. Both simulations and reconstructions show that the centers with the strongest increase in precipitation have always been located in the Balkans and Apennine peninsulas along the Mediterranean coast over Southern Europe, and the centers with the strongest precipitation reduction are mainly located in the British Isles and Scandinavia over northwestern Europe. The negative response of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the north and negative SLP anomaly in the south is excited in summer. The low tropospheric wind anomaly caused by the negative phase of NAO in summer affects the water vapor transport to Europe, resulting in the distribution pattern of summer precipitation in Europe, which is drying in the north and wetting in the south. The knowledge gained from this study is crucial to better understand and predict the potential impacts of single mega volcanic eruption on the future summer hydroclimate change in Europe.
Highlights
Volcanic eruption is a major natural cause of interannual to multiannual climate change and has affected human society [1]
After the Samalas mega volcanic eruption, the simulation results of volcanic experiments (VOL) show that the centers with the strongest increase in precipitation have always been located in the Balkans and Apennine peninsulas over Southern Europe, and the centers with the strongest precipitation reduction are mainly located in the British Isles and Scandinavia over northwestern Europe
Compared with Folland et al [43], we found that the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in summer after the Samalas mega volcanic eruption was more like the typical definition of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like negative phase, which shows that the meridional pressure gradient between Iceland and the Azores was weakened in summer (Figure 7)
Summary
Volcanic eruption is a major natural cause of interannual to multiannual climate change and has affected human society [1]. The medieval chronicles in Northern Europe recorded the initial warming in the early winter of AD 1258 after the Samalas eruption, followed by extensive wet and cold climatic conditions in AD 1259, which may have affected crops and contributed to the beginning and severity of famines in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere at that time [7]. There is currently a lack of research on the response of the European summer climate to the Samalas mega volcanic eruption based on simulation. We will offer a more comprehensive understanding of the historical impacts and mechanisms of Samalas mega volcanic eruption on European summer hydroclimate changes from the perspective of simulation research.
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