Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Phase Research Articles

Impact of atmospheric circulation patterns on coastal dune dynamics, NW Spain

Dunes in temperate latitudes have experienced a significant stabilization in recent times, essentially as a consequence of the expansion of dense vegetation cover. Yet, the causes for this gradual stabilization as well as the causes promoting antecedent aeolian mobilization remain poorly understood. The Traba coastal dune field, located in NW Spain, was examined to explore the causes inducing aeolian activity and subsequent stabilization since 1940. Morphological changes were identified through the combination of aerial photographs and geophysical techniques. Local wind field regimes were simulated using a regional climate model to obtain the variability of the most relevant modes of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic and European regions; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCAND). This allows us to identify the impact of these circulation modes over dune dynamics. Results document an episode of aeolian activity during the 1950s followed by a gradual stabilization and fixation of the dune coincident with a decrease on storm and wind intensity. Yet, aeolian sand movement remained active in small areas (blowouts), occurring mainly during the summer. NE winds associated with a negative phase of the EA explain the movement of sand within the dune field under favorable conditions of sand supply. On the other hand, sand supply to the dune field from the beach was promoted by NW winds coincident with the summer negative phase of NAO. During winter, the negative NAO favored frequent SW winds associated with the passage of intense storms, which in turn explain sand remobilization from the beach making sediment available for the NW winds to blow inland. With this work, it is proven that to understand past and future aeolian activity requires critical consideration of the variability and impact of the two principal modes of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic (NAO and EA). The SCAND mode explaining a lower percentage of the local wind field variability was also included to achieve higher significance levels of explained variance.

Influência da Oscilação do Atlântico Norte no clima do continente europeu e no caudal dos rios ibéricos atlânticos

THE IMPACT OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ON THE EUROPEAN CLIMATE AND RIVER FLOW OF THREE MAJOR IBERIAN RIVERS – The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most dominant mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) and has recently been shown to be related to climate over large regions of the NH, in particular, over the European and North American continents. Here, a multivariable analysis of the influence ofthe NAO on the climate of the North Atlantic and European sectors is presented using the 40 year (1958-97) reanalysis data set from National Centres for Environmental Prediction. Using high and low NAO index composites, anomaly fields of climate variables are then interpreted based on physical mechanisms associated with the anomalous mean flow (characterised by the surface wind field) and theanomalous eddy activity (characterised by the surface vorticity and the 500hPa storm track fields). It is shown that NAO-related temperature patterns are mainly controlled by the advection of heat by the anomalous mean flow. However, asymmetries between minimum and maximum temperatures, and more significantly, between positive and negative phases of NAO imply the importance of a different mechanism, namely the modulation of short wave and long wave radiation by cloud cover variations associated with the NAO. Furthermore, NAO influence over two different precipitation-related variables, namely, precipitation rate and precipitable water display different patterns. Precipitable water is shown to be strongly related to the corresponding anomaly fields of temperature while precipitation rate appears to be controlled by the surface vorticity field and associated strength of the tropospheric synoptic activity. Finally, we have assessed the impact of the NAO on winter river flow regimes for several different Portuguese rivers, including the three main international Iberian rivers, the Douro (north), the Tagus (centre) and the Guadiana (south). Results show that the large inter-annual variability of flow of these three rivers is largely modulated by the NAO. Such modulation, associated with the recent positive trend of the NAO index, might implicate a significant decrease of the available flow. This reduction can representan important hazard for the Portuguese economy due to its negative impact in agricultural yield and hydroelectric power production.

Winter wave climate, storms and regional cycles: the SW Spanish Atlantic coast

ABSTRACTClimatic change‐related impacts on coastal areas became an important issue in past decades and nowadays threaten many human settlements and activities. Coastal hazards are linked to flooding and erosion processes associated with sea level rise and the increased strength of hurricanes, cyclones and storms. The main aim of this work is the characterization of coastal storms in Cadiz (SW Spain) and the determination of their recurrence intervals and relationships with several regional cycles. Storm characterization was carried out using the Storm Power Index (Dolan and Davis, 1992) and five classes were obtained, from class I (weak events) to V (extreme events). Storm occurrence probability was 96% for class I (i.e. almost one event per year) to 3% for class V. The return period for class V was 25 years and ranged from 6 to 8 years for classes III and IV storms, e.g. significant and severe events. Classes I and II showed a period of recurrence ranging from 1 to 3 years. Stormy winter seasons were 2009/10 (12 events), 1995/6 and 2002/3 (with 10 events each) and 1993/4 (8 events). Approximately 40% of the change in monthly wave data and storminess indices was related to several teleconnection patterns, the most important drivers of change being the Arctic Oscillation (AO), 21.45%, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 19.65%. It is interesting to note that a great number of storms, larger storm duration and higher values of Storm Power Index were only observed when neutral to strong negative NAO and AO phases occurred at the same time (89 storms and 3355 h) and/or when there was an abrupt change of NAO and AO phases, i.e. they moved from a positive to negative phase without passing through a neutral phase. The results obtained in this work have wider applications for ocean and coastal management. It is suggested that methodology used can be easily applied in different areas where wave buoy data are available. In the same way, information obtained with this kind of work constitutes the first step in the development of coastal protection plans to preserve socio‐economic activities from the impact of severe storm events.

Physical mechanisms of European winter snow cover variability and its relationship to the NAO

Annual snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased in the past two decades, an effect associated with global warming. The regional scale changes of snow cover during winter, however, vary significantly from one region to another. In the present study, snow cover variability over Europe and its connection to other atmospheric variables was investigated using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The evolution of atmospheric variables related to each CSEOF mode of snow cover variability was derived via regression analysis in CSEOF space. CSEOF analysis clearly shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is related to European snow cover, particularly in January and February. A negative NAO phase tends to result in a snow cover increases, whereas a positive NAO phase results in snow cover decreases. The temporal changes in the connection between the NAO and European snow cover are explained by time-dependent NAO-related temperature anomalies. If the NAO phase is negative, the temperature is lower in Europe and snow cover increases; by contrast, when the NAO phase is positive, the temperature is higher and snow cover decreases. Temperature and snow cover variations in Europe are associated with the thermal advection by anomalous wind by NAO. CSEOF analysis also shows an abrupt increase of snow cover in December and January and a decrease in February and March since the year 2000, approximately. This abrupt change is associated with sub-seasonal variations of atmospheric circulation in the study region.

Drought-Busting Tropical Cyclones in the Southeastern Atlantic United States: 1950–2008

Droughts and tropical cyclones (TCs) are climatologically common events in the southeastern United States, yet little research has examined the potential for TCs to ameliorate drought impacts. Here, we identify the frequency of TCs that abruptly end drought conditions (i.e., drought busters, or DB) and determine possible influences of coupled ocean–atmosphere teleconnections on the likelihood of a TC-induced DB (TCDB). Using the HURDAT database and Palmer Drought Severity Indexes from 1950 through 2008, we identified every TCDB for thirty-one climate divisions in the southeastern Atlantic United States. We present the spatial patterns of the total number of TCDBs and the percentage of all droughts ended by TCs using choropleth maps. To determine what teleconnections influenced TCDBs, we used logistic regression analysis and included multiple synoptic-scale circulation indexes as predictor variables. In addition, we used a Fisher's exact test to examine the association between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and TCDBs. We found that up to 41 percent of all droughts and at least 20 percent of droughts in three fourths of the climate divisions were ended by TCDBs. NAO was a significant predictor (p = 0.005) in the logistic regression model (χ2 = 10.91, p = 0.001), and the Fisher's exact test showed a significant association between NAO and TCDBs (p = 0.003). An odds-ratio calculation showed that TCDBs are 5.8 times more likely to occur during a negative NAO phase than a positive NAO phase.

Meteorological factors affecting the speed of movement and related impacts of extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast

The speeds of historical cool-season extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast, hereafter East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS), occurring during the period from 1951 to 2006 were computed. Average storm speed was 13.8 ms−1 with stronger storms generally moving faster than weaker storms and faster storms forming during the midwinter months (December–March). There was no clear trend in ECWS speed during the time period, although considerable season-to-season variability was present. The monthly and seasonal variations in storm speed could not be attributed to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alone. However, the speed of ECWS was considerably slower when both El Nino and the negative phase of NAO occurred simultaneously. Characteristic patterns in the upper levels of the atmosphere, specifically 300 hPa zonal winds and 500 hPa geopotential heights, were present during periods when ECWS speeds were among the slowest (and separately fastest). For slow storm speed, these patterns also prevailed during months in which El Nino and negative NAO phase occurred. These patterns were also present during months with extended runs of high oceanic storm surge. This provides a qualitative link between the atmospheric conditions associated with slow storms and potentially high coastal storm surge impacts. Among the prime consequences of ECWS speed are extended periods of high storm surge, mainly due to slow-moving storms. The sustained high tidal levels often lead to substantial damage caused by coastal flooding, overwash, and beach erosion.

Central Pacific El Niño, the “subtropical bridge,” and Eurasian climate

This study contributes to the discussion on possible effects of El Niño on North Atlantic/European regional climates. We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to show how the two different types of El Niños (the central Pacific, or CP, and the east Pacific, or EP) result in remarkably different European winter temperature anomalies, specifically weak warming during EP and significant cooling during CP El Niños, the latter being associated with a negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results diverge from former suggestions addressing the weakened stratospheric polar vortex as the dominant factor contributing to the El Niño/NAO teleconnection. We propose a tropospheric bridge as the mechanism primarily responsible for the establishment of a negative NAO phase and of associated cold European winters. This mechanism includes the subtropical jet (STJ) waveguide being activated only during CP El Niños, when anomalous convective heating occurs near the edge of the Pacific warm pool. Under these conditions the STJ is enhanced by planetary wave flux divergence in the subtropical upper troposphere, providing favorable conditions for the propagation of a wave number 5 disturbance around the subtropical Northern Hemisphere. This wave contributes to weakening of the Azores High and, hence, to the negative NAO phase. As global warming scenarios project an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events, the distinctive nature of this mechanism implies that the probability of cold European winters may increase as well in future decades.

Variability of the ocean carbon cycle in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

ABSTRACTClimate modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing internal variability of the climate system, influence the ocean carbon cycle and may mask trends in the sink of anthropogenic carbon. Here, utilising control runs of six fully coupled Earth System Models, the response of the ocean carbon cycle to the NAO is quantified. The dominating response, a seesaw pattern between the subtropical gyre and the subpolar Northern Atlantic, is instantaneous (<3 months) and dynamically consistent over all models and with observations for a range of physical and biogeochemical variables. All models show asymmetric responses to NAO+ and NAO− forcing, implying non-linearity in the connection between NAO and the ocean carbon cycle. However, model differences in regional expression and magnitude and conflicting results with regard to air–sea flux and CO2 partial pressure remain. Typical NAO-driven variations are ±10 mmol/m3 in the surface concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity and ±8 ppm in the air–sea partial pressure difference. The effect on the basin-wide air–sea CO2 flux is small due to compensating fluxes on the sub-basin scale. Two models show a reduced carbon sink in the north-eastern North Atlantic during negative NAO phases, qualitatively in accordance with the observed decline during a phase of predominantly negative NAO. The results indicate that wind-driven dynamics are the main driver of the response to the NAO, which – via vertical mixing, upwelling and the associated entrainment of dissolved inorganic carbon and nutrients – leave an imprint on surface pCO2 and the air–sea CO2 flux as well as on biological export production, pH and the calcium carbonate saturation state. The biogeochemical response to the NAO is predominantly governed by vertical exchange between the surface and the thermocline; large-scale horizontal transport mechanisms are of minor importance.

Impact of ENSO on the Atmospheric Variability over the North Atlantic in Late Winter—Role of Transient Eddies

Abstract The dynamical mechanism for the late-winter teleconnection between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined using the output from a 2000-yr integration of a coupled general circulation model (GCM). The coupled model captures many salient features of the observed behavior of both ENSO and NAO, as well as their impact on the surface climate in late winter. Both the observational and model data indicate more occurrences of negative phase of NAO in late winter during El Niño events, and positive NAO in La Niña episodes. The potential role of high-frequency transient eddies in the above teleconnection is diagnosed. During El Niño winters, the intensified transient disturbances along the equatorward-shifted North Pacific storm track extend their influences farther downstream. The eddy-induced negative height tendencies are found to be more coherent and stronger over North Atlantic than that over North Pacific. These negative height tendencies over the North Atlantic are coincident with the southern lobe of NAO, and thus favor more occurrences of negative NAO events. During those El Niño winters with relatively strong SST warming in eastern equatorial Pacific, the eastward extension of eddy activity is reinforced by the enhanced near-surface baroclinicity over the subtropical eastern Pacific. This flow environment supports a stronger linkage between the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and is more conducive to a negative NAO phase. These model results are supported by a parallel analysis of various observational datasets. It is further demonstrated that these transient eddy effects can be reproduced in atmospheric GCM integrations subjected to ENSO-related SST forcing in the tropical Pacific.

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3 years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.

The response of Iberian rivers to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. In this study we analyzed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the streamflow in 187 sub-basins of the Iberian Peninsula. Monthly and one-month lagged correlations were conducted to assess the spatio-temporal extent of the NAO influence on Iberian river discharges. Analysis of the persistence of the winter NAO throughout the year was also undertaken, together with analysis of streamflow anomalies during positive and negative NAO phases. Moving-window correlation analyses were conducted to assess potential changes in the temporal evolution of the NAO influence on Iberian streamflows. The results show that the NAO has a large impact on surface water resources throughout the Iberian Peninsula during winter, and in the Atlantic watershed during autumn. We showed that water resources management and snowmelt are causing the persistent dependence of streamflows on the previous winter NAO. We found that strongly positive streamflow anomalies occurred during winter, especially in the Atlantic watershed, and provide evidence of non-stationarity and spatial variability in the NAO influence on Iberian water resources.

The North Atlantic Oscillation affects landings of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus in the Gulf of Cádiz (south of Spain)

The aim of this study was to explore the possible link between NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) variations and the abundance of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) stock in the Gulf of Cadiz. A significantly negative correlation was found between the NAO in the year previous to the anchovy landings. In the Gulf of Cadiz the mean anchovy landings after a negative NAO phase were significantly higher than after a positive NAO phase. A statistically significant negative relationship was obtained between the biennial NAO (estimated as the average monthly NAO values per two consecutive years starting with an odd-numbered year) and the probability of having an anchovy landing value for a year higher than the average anchovy landings for the entire year. Results suggest that the NAO previous to the landing year is an ecological factor of European anchovy related to its abundance in the Gulf of Cádiz. This could have important applications for conservation strategies and species management.

Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10

[1] The winter of 2009/2010 was one of the most negative winters of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the last 150 years. While most operational extended-range forecasting systems had difficulties in predicting the onset of the negative NAO phase, once established, extended-range forecasts were relatively skilful in predicting its persistence. Here, the origin and predictability of the unusual winter of 2009/10 are explored through numerical experimentation with the ECMWF Monthly forecasting system. More specifically, the role of anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the stratospheric polar vortex, solar insolation and near surface temperature (proxy for snow cover) are examined. None of these anomalies is capable of producing the observed NAO anomaly, especially in terms of its magnitude. The results of this study support the hypothesis that internal atmospheric dynamical processes were responsible for the onset and persistence of the negative NAO phase during the 2009/10 winter.

The Variability of the Atlantic Storm Track and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A Link between Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability

Abstract The winter-mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has been mostly positive since the 1980s, with a linear upward trend during the period from 1978 to 1990 (P1) and a linear downward trend during the period from 1991 to 2009 (P2). Further calculations show that the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity is more intense during P2 than during P1, which is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level for a t test. This study proposes a hypothesis that the change in the trend of the positive NAO index from P1 to P2 may be associated with the marked intensification of the Atlantic storm track during P2. A generalized nonlinear NAO model is used to explain the observed trend of the positive NAO index within P2. It is found that even when the Atlantic storm-track eddies are less intense, a positive-phase NAO event can form under the eddy forcing if the planetary-scale wave has an initial value with a low-over-high dipole structure during P1 and P2. A blocking flow can occur in the downstream side (over Europe) of the Atlantic basin as a result of the energy dispersion of Rossby waves during the decay of the positive-phase NAO event. This blocking flow does not strictly correspond to a negative-phase NAO event because the blocking stays mainly over the European continent. However, when the Atlantic storm-track eddies are rather strong, the blocking flow occurring over the European continent is enhanced and can retrograde into the Atlantic region and finally become a long-lived negative-phase NAO event. In this case, the NAO event can transit from the positive phase to the negative phase. Thus, the winter-mean NAO index during P2 will inevitably decline because of the increase in days of negative-phase NAO events in winter because the Atlantic storm track exhibits a marked intensification in the time interval. The transition of the NAO event from the positive phase to the negative phase can also be observed only when the downstream development of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity is rather prominent. Thus, it appears that there is a physical link between intraseasonal and interannual time scales of the NAO when the Atlantic storm track exhibits an interannual variability.

Spatio‐temporal patterns of pressure over the North Atlantic

AbstractThe North Atlantic mean sea level pressure field variability is analysed. A space–time study is performed using multichannel singular spectral analysis, allowing the detection of significant space–time modes of variability with periodicity behaviour. It is shown that there is a space variability associated with the time variability of the pressure field. The oscillation is not quasi‐meridional but has different orientations, rotating in a cycle, with a periodicity of about 9 years, from the positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) phase through the negative NAO phase and again to the positive phase. This periodicity behaviour was previously detected in the temporal principal components extracted from a principal component analysis but, in the time domain, it was found as not significant. Furthermore, the analysis of a long series of an NAO index had already revealed similar periodicity behaviour. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Evaluating Duero's basin (Spain) response to the NAO phases: spatial and seasonal variability

In this study, we analysed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological response of the Duero River (central Spain) and its tributaries. We identified the positive and negative phases of the winter NAO for the period 1961–2006 and related precipitation and river discharge anomalies. Significant differences in precipitation and river discharge were found between the positive and negative NAO phases with negative anomalies (dry conditions) during positive NAO periods, and positive anomalies (wet conditions) during negative NAO periods. Marked differences were also found in the precipitation and river discharge response times to the NAO episodes, with an immediate response for precipitation but a lag and more sustained response for river discharges. Differing patterns were also identified in the response of river discharge to the NAO throughout the Duero basin. The physical characteristics of watersheds (including area, altitude and permeability explained most of the differences in the timing and magnitude of anomalies in the river discharge in response to the NAO. The findings highlight the great variability in the hydrological response of rivers to the NAO episodes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial Pattern and Zonal Shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part II: Numerical Experiments

Abstract In this part, the spatial evolution of an initial dipole anomaly in a prescribed jet is at first investigated by numerically solving linear and nonlinear models without forcing in order to examine how the spatial pattern of a dipole anomaly depends on the meridional distribution of a specified jet. It is shown that in a linear experiment an initial symmetric dipole anomaly in the meridional direction can evolve into a northeast–southwest (NE–SW) or northwest–southeast (NW–SE) tilted dipole structure if the core of this jet is in higher latitudes (the north) or in lower latitudes (the south). This is in agreement with the result predicted by the linear Rossby wave theory in slowly varying media. The conclusion also holds for the nonlinear and unforced experiment. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events are then reproduced in a fully nonlinear barotropic model with a wavemaker that mimics the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity. In the absence of topography the spatial tilting of the eddy-driven NAO pattern is found to be independent of the NAO phase. The eddy-driven NAO pattern for the positive (negative) phase can exhibit a NE–SW (NW–SE) tilting only when the core of a prescribed jet prior to the NAO is confined in the higher latitude (lower latitude) region. However, in the presence of the wavenumber-2 topography (two oceans and continents) in the Northern Hemisphere the spatial tilting of the eddy-driven NAO dipole anomaly can be dependent on the NAO phase. Even when the specified basic flow prior to the NAO is uniform, the eddy-driven positive (negative) NAO phase dipole anomaly can also show a NE–SW (NW–SE) tilting because the northward (southward) shift of the excited westerly jet can occur in the presence of topography. In addition, it is found that when the wavemaker is closer to the position of the initial NAO, the eddy-driven positive (negative) NAO phase pattern can display a whole eastward shift and a more distinct NE–SW (NW–SE) tilting. This thus explains why the first empirical orthogonal function of the NAO pattern observed during 1998–2007 exhibits a more pronounced NE–SW tilting than during 1978–97. It appears that the latitudinal shift of the jet, the large-scale topography, and the zonal position of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity are three important factors for controlling the spatial tilting and zonal shift of eddy-driven NAO dipole anomalies.

Spatial Pattern and Zonal Shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part I: A Dynamical Interpretation

Abstract This paper presents a possible dynamical explanation for why the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern exhibits an eastward shift from the period 1958–77 (P1) to the period 1978–97 (P2) or 1998–2007 (P3). First, the empirical orthogonal function analysis of winter mean geopotential heights during P1, P2, and P3 reveals that the NAO dipole anomaly exhibits a northwest–southeast (NW–SE) tilting during P1 but a northeast–southwest (NE–SW) tilting during P2 and P3. The NAO pattern, especially its northern center, undergoes a more pronounced eastward shift from P1 to P2. The composite calculation of NAO events during P1 and P2 also indicates that the negative (positive) NAO phase dipole anomaly can indeed exhibit such a NW–SE (NE–SW) tilting. Second, a linear Rossby wave formula derived in a slowly varying basic flow with a meridional shear is used to qualitatively show that the zonal phase speed of the NAO dipole anomaly is larger (smaller) in higher latitudes and smaller (larger) in lower latitudes during the life cycle of the positive (negative) NAO phases because the core of the Atlantic jet is shifted to the north (south). Such a phase speed distribution tends to cause the different movement speeds of the NAO dipole anomaly at different latitudes, thus resulting in the different spatial tilting of the NAO dipole anomaly depending on the phase of the NAO. The zonal displacement of the northern center of the NAO pattern appears to be more pronounced because the change of the mean flow between two phases of the NAO is more distinct in higher latitudes than in lower latitudes. In addition, a weakly nonlinear analytical solution, based on the assumption of the scale separation between the NAO anomaly and transient synoptic-scale waves, is used to demonstrate that an eastward shift of the Atlantic storm-track eddy activity that is associated with the eastward extension of the Atlantic jet stream is a possible cause of the whole eastward shift of the center of action of the NAO pattern during P2/P3.

Tropospheric temperature interannual variations associated with decadal changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper studies the causes and mechanisms of the formation of extreme anomalies in the tropospheric temperature associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our approach is based on understanding that, in the annual cycle, continental-scale tropospheric temperature anomalies (planetary waves with longitudinal wave numbers of 1–3) can both intensify under the direct action of heat inflow as an energy source for these anomalies (radiation cooling/heating) and weaken as a result of the destructive action of heat inflow under temperature advections with the opposite (to the heat inflow) sign [4, 5]. According to the monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the 40-year period, seasonal air temperature anomalies have been studied at the level 850 hPa (T850) in different regions of Eurasia. It has been confirmed that the negative NAO phase in winter is favorable for preserving negative T850 anomalies in the east of the continent at this time of year, whereas the positive NAO phase is favorable for negative T850 anomalies in the west. However, it has been revealed that this dependence was critically violated during the winter seasons approximately two years before an extreme event. This was explained by the fact that, in those years, the NAO influence on winter T850 anomalies was limited. This paper formally considers a certain mechanism of anomalous heat inflow as an energy source for these anomalies with functions of the formation (intensification) of negative T850 anomalies in winter and positive T850 anomalies in summer, as well as with a function of the limitation of the influence of the predominant dynamic mode on some regions of the continent. It is shown that, in the 1960s, T850 anomalies with negative NAO indices in the east of the continent were governed by a hypothetic mechanism of heat inflow as an energy source for anomalies; in 1980s, at prolonged positive NAO indices, T850 anomalies in the west of the continent could also be governed by this mechanism. This paper, within the accepted degree of detail, demonstrates the process of limitation of the NAO influence in some years (1966, 1967, 1987, and 1988), which leads to an unbalance of the anomalies and a possible extreme phenomenon. It is demonstrated that, in some seasons, the anomalies were not governed by the hypothetic mechanism of the heat inflow under the action of large NAO changes and a complete upset of the annual cycle of anomalies. Determining the first indicators of the unbalance, which can lead to extreme anomalies, is shown to be difficult if it is based only on an analysis of winter seasons (as is the case with most of the works) without invoking the annual trends of the tropospheric temperature and the NAO index.

Simulated Response of the Arctic Freshwater Budget to Extreme NAO Wind Forcing

Abstract The authors investigate the response of the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using a regional-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology GCM (MITgcm) and carry out several different 10-yr and 30-yr integrations. At 1/6° (∼18 km) resolution the model resolves the major Arctic transport pathways, including Bering Strait and the Canadian Archipelago. Two main calculations are performed by repeating the wind fields of two contrasting NAO years in each run for the extreme negative and positive NAO phases of 1969 and 1989, respectively. These calculations are compared both with a control run and the compiled observationally based freshwater budget estimate of Serreze et al. The results show a clear response in the Arctic freshwater budget to NAO forcing, that is, repeat NAO negative wind forcing results in virtually all freshwater being retained in the Arctic, with the bulk of the freshwater content being pooled in the Beaufort gyre. In contrast, repeat NAO positive forcing accelerates the export of freshwater out of the Arctic to the North Atlantic, primarily via Fram Strait (∼900 km3 yr−1) and the Canadian Archipelago (∼500 km3 yr−1), with a total loss in freshwater storage of ∼13 000 km3 (15%) after 10 yr. The large increase in freshwater export through the Canadian Archipelago highlights the important role that this gateway plays in redistributing the freshwater of the Arctic to subpolar seas, by providing a direct pathway from the Arctic basin to the Labrador Sea, Gulf Stream system, and Atlantic Ocean. The authors discuss the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean to long-term fixed extreme NAO states and show that the freshwater content of the Arctic is able to be restored to initial values from a depleted freshwater state after ∼20 yr.