Negative Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Non-local modelling of freezing and thawing of unsaturated soils

A large part of the earth’s surface is covered by seasonally or permanently frozen soils. Considering the negative impact of climate change, future development of such regions can be underpinned by mathematical methods for accurate analysis of heat and moisture transport in freezing and thawing soils. Reported in this paper is a novel non-local formulation of water and heat transport in unsaturated soils. The formulation uses bond-based peridynamics (PD) and consists of a set of integral–difference formulations of energy and mass conservation. Specific features of freezing/thawing soils are incorporated by a combination of van Genuthcen and Clausius–Clapeyron relations. Computational results are compared with four sets of laboratory experiments to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed approach. The model can be used to analyse the effect of water flow on heat transfer in soils during thawing of permafrost soils. Further, it can be applied in modelling climate change effects, and can be used for construction of coupled physically justified models of frost heave.

Mitigating climate impact through stabilized fertilizers: enhancing agricultural sustainability

The recognition by the global scientific community that anthropogenic activities are responsible for the negative impact of climate change has led to the emergence of numerous theses and projects aimed at mitigating humanity's adverse effects on the environment. The biosphere's inherent characteristic of movement plays a significant role in the dispersion of pollutants, rendering the notion of a national ecosystem obsolete. In light of this understanding, this project focuses on the reduction of negative climate factors through the application of stabilized fertilizers with controlled nutrient release. The primary objective is to minimize the detrimental consequences of human activities on the Earth by implementing sustainable strategies. Conventional fertilizers often result in rapid nutrient release, leading to inefficiencies and environmental repercussions. This approach optimizes nutrient utilization, mitigates nutrient losses through leaching and volatilization, and reduces environmental contamination. Slow-release fertilizers, coated products, and nutrient-specific delivery systems are potential avenues for achieving this goal. Furthermore, by reducing nutrient runoff, these fertilizers contribute to preserving water quality and safeguarding aquatic ecosystems.

No effect of invasive tree species on aboveground biomass increments of oaks and pines in temperate forests

Prunus serotina and Robinia pseudoacacia are the most widespread invasive trees in Central Europe. In addition, according to climate models, decreased growth of many economically and ecologically important native trees will likely be observed in the future. We aimed to assess the impact of these two neophytes, which differ in the biomass range and nitrogen-fixing abilities observed in Central European conditions, on the relative aboveground biomass increments of native oaks Quercus robur and Q. petraea and Scots pine Pinus sylvestris. We aimed to increase our understanding of the relationship between facilitation and competition between woody alien species and overstory native trees. We established 72 circular plots (0.05 ​ha) in two different forest habitat types and stands varying in age in western Poland. We chose plots with different abundances of the studied neophytes to determine how effects scaled along the quantitative invasion gradient. Furthermore, we collected growth cores of the studied native species, and we calculated aboveground biomass increments at the tree and stand levels. Then, we used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess the impact of invasive species abundances on relative aboveground biomass increments of native tree species. We did not find a biologically or statistically significant impact of invasive R. pseudoacacia or P. serotina on the relative aboveground biomass increments of native oaks and pines along the quantitative gradient of invader biomass or on the proportion of total stand biomass accounted for by invaders. The neophytes did not act as native tree growth stimulators but also did not compete with them for resources, which would escalate the negative impact of climate change on pines and oaks. The neophytes should not significantly modify the carbon sequestration capacity of the native species. Our work combines elements of the per capita effect of invasion with research on mixed forest management.

기후변화시대 지역성장 기회요인의 사례분석과 시사점

Climate change has both a crisis and an opportunity factor. The financial damage in Korea caused by natural disaster for the last 10 years is estimated 3.7 trillion won, and especially 14 day long extreme precipitation in 2020 resulted in severe financial damage of 1.3 trillion won. This clearly shows the negative impact of climate change on our society. However, crises always bring another opportunity. The purpose of this study is to present policy implications through case analysis of opportunity factors for climate change, and this study has the characteristics of literature research. The major findings of the study are as follows; 1) the creation of complex sports and cultural spaces such as indoor domes, (2) the promotion of the 'Plant Factory Village Pilot Project', and (3) the discovery of industrial and business items through various idea contests on the theme of changes and opportunities in daily life due to climate change.

НАУКОВА СПАДЩИНА ВАСИЛЯ КАРАЗІНА ДЛЯ ВІДНОВЛЕННЯ Й ЗМІЦНЕННЯ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ (до 250-річчя від дня народження)

Від народження Василя Каразіна (1773–1842) минуло 250 років, але його наукова спадщина зберігає цінність і актуальність для вирішення сучасних завдань. Так, у контексті завдань повоєнної відбудови економіки України є важливими, зокрема, його ідеї зміцнення національного господарства на основі розвитку і технологічної модернізації виробництва, захисту внутрішнього ринку і заохочення промислової переробки аграрної сировини, стимулювання інновацій і вдосконалення освіти для модернізації і підвищення конкурентоспроможності економіки, урахування екологічних параметрів і спрямування господарської діяльності на зменшення негативного впливу кліматичних змін.Розкрито такі основні напрями державної і громадської діяльності В. Каразіна: 1) розроблення реформ державного управління, земельної власності й землекористування, інституційного забезпечення свободи економічної діяльності й розвитку підприємництва, засобів зміцнення курсу національної грошової одиниці й стабілізації грошового обігу; 2) обґрунтування значення освіти, науки та інноваційної діяльності як рушіїв економічного розвитку і суспільного прогресу; розроблення законодавчо-нормативної бази для створення системи народної освіти і забезпечення доступу до знань усіх верств суспільства; ініціювання й організаційне забезпечення створення Харківського університету як осередку підготовки національної науково-технічної еліти; 3) організація і популяризація експериментально-дослідницької діяльності задля технологічної модернізації аграрного виробництва, розвитку місцевої промисловості, підвищення народного добробуту; заснування Філотехнічного товариства; упровадження принципів безвідхідного виробництва в сільському господарстві на основі авторських експериментальних розробок і використання новітніх технологій.Аргументовано, що, розробляючи заходи економічної політики, орієнтованої на збереження, ефективне використання і примноження природно-господарського потенціалу, передбачивши зростаючу роль знань у суспільному розвитку, Василь Каразін став провісником людиноцентричної економічної парадигми. Його новаторська господарська, науково-просвітницька і громадська діяльність мають слугувати орієнтиром для сучасної національної еліти України.

Water productivity of barley crop under laser land leveling technique and minimum tillage

ABSTRACTLaser land leveling is an important method that helps to improve the spatial distribution of irrigation water and fertilizers applications, subsequently reduce water, nutrient, and energy inputs to agriculture and contributes to increasing productivity. Thus, the aim of the study was to improve the productivity of the barley crop grown in sandy lands under conditions of water scarcity and the negative impact of climate change in Egypt by using laser leveling and the minimum tillage method. Two experiments were conducted during the 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 seasons at the Nubariya farm, Buhaira Governorate, Egypt to study the effects of laser leveling and minimum tillage (zero – tillage, 10 cm, 20 cm, and 30 cm) affecting the distribution of soil moisture, water stress, effectiveness of water application, yield characteristics, water productivity, and some quality parameters of the barley crop. The statistical analysis’ findings revealed a considerable influence of both laser soil leveling and minimum depth of plowing on productivity, water productivity and quality properties of barley crop. Laser leveling with a plowing depth of 10 cm gave the most favorable values of the soil moisture content at the root-zone as well as better grain yield and water productivity in addition to improve the quality properties of barley. The grain yield has improved by 12.65% and 10.41%, while water productivity has increased by 12.75% and 10.06% during the seasons 2020/2021 and 2021/2022, respectively. This increase is likely the result of improving soil moisture distribution and increasing irrigation application efficiency, which resulted in less water stress in the root zone and subsequently increased yield, water productivity and quality properties of barley during the two growing seasons. Generally, the application of laser land leveling as eco-friendly practice will help in sustaining barley productivity in Egypt particularly in the sandy soil regions. According to this study, laser-assisted precision field leveling has the potential to improve grain yield and crop establishment, water productivity and barley quality properties in addition to achievement of the highest net income for farmers.

Long-term prediction of the effects of climate change on indoor climate and air quality

Limiting the negative impact of climate change on nature and humans is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. Meanwhile, people in modern society spend most of the day indoors. It is therefore surprising that comparatively little attention has been paid to indoor human exposure in relation to climate change. Heat action plans have now been designed in many regions to protect people from thermal stress in their private homes and in public buildings. However, in order to be able to plan effectively for the future, reliable information is required about the long-term effects of climate change on indoor air quality and climate.The Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model is an expediant tool for estimating the influence of climate change on indoor air quality. The model follows a holistic approach in which building physics, emissions, chemical reactions, mold growth and exposure are combined with the fundamental parameters of temperature and humidity. The features of the model have already been presented in an earlier publication, and it is now used for the expected climatic conditions in Central Europe, taking into account various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios up to the year 2100.For the test house examined in this study, the concentrations of pollutants in the indoor air will continue to rise. At the same time, the risk of mold growth also increases (the mold index rose from 0 to 4 in the worst case for very sensitive material). The biggest problem, however, is protection against heat and humidity. Massive structural improvements are needed here, including insulation, ventilation, and direct sun protection. Otherwise, the occupants will be exposed to increasing thermal discomfort, which can also lead to severe heat stress indoors.

Economics Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture GDP in Bhutan: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Approach

This paper examines the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bhutan. It focuses on the significance of the agriculture sector in Bhutan and analyzes the economic effects of climate change using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The dependent variable used in the ARDL model is agriculture GDP, while the independent variables are temperature and rainfall. The ARDL model is employed to assess the short-run and long-run economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. The results of the study indicate that the agriculture sector has consistently contributed the highest GDP from 2009 to 2020 in Bhutan. Additionally, it has provided the most significant employment opportunities compared to other sectors between 2009 and 2019. The ARDL model results demonstrate that in the short run, the coefficient for temperature is positive at 0.16, and the coefficient for rainfall is 0.5, indicating that climate change has a positive impact on agriculture GDP. However, in the long run, the ARDL model reveals a negative impact of climate change on agriculture GDP. The coefficient for temperature is -11.2, and for rainfall, it is -1.13. These findings underscore the urgent need for measures to address the challenges posed by climate change. The paper recommends raising awareness about climate-smart initiatives and programs among stakeholders. Additionally, training and the adoption of climate-resilient seeds and techniques are necessary to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on the agriculture sector.

Impacts of climate change on semi-natural alpine pastures productivity and floristic composition

Climate change impact on pasture floristic composition needs to be carefully assessed, given its key role for the resilience of pastoral systems and related ecosystem services. Nevertheless, variations in floristic composition are rarely taken into account in climate change impact studies. Here, we used the plant community model CoSMo to simulate future dynamics of biomass accumulation and floristic composition for high-altitude semi-natural alpine pastures. Dedicated multi-site field activities were conducted to collect data for model calibration. Simulations were run for four 20-year climate scenarios centered on 2040, resulting from the combination of two general circulation models (GISS-ES and HadGEM2) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results highlighted the capability of CoSMo to successfully reproduce the productivity and floristic composition of semi-natural pastures, modeling efficiency and R2 being higher than 0.90 for aboveground biomass accumulation and relative abundance of species. CoSMo simulated an overall positive effect of increasing temperatures on pasture productivity (+ 10.7% on average), due to higher biomass accumulation rates and longer growing seasons. However, these benefits were highly heterogeneous among the monitored pastures (ranging from − 2.5 to + 16.2%), because of differences in floristic composition and in species-specific thermal requirements that led to complex, non-linear reactions to climate variations. A negative impact of climate change was simulated for grazing value (− 11.1% on average), due to the higher suitability to future conditions of Nardus stricta, which has low grazing value compared to other species. Our results highlight that floristic composition should be explicitly considered while assessing climate change impacts on semi-natural pasture productivity and connected ecosystem services.

Impact of Agricultural Drought on Barley and Wheat Yield: A Comparative Case Study of Spain and Germany

Given the growing interest in drought impacts on crops, this work studied the impact of agricultural drought on wheat and barley during the period 2001–2020. The study was carried out in the Spanish regions of Castilla y León and Castilla–La Mancha, with approximate areas of 94,000 km2 and 79,000 km2, respectively, and in the German regions of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Niedersachsen and Bayern, with approximate areas of 34,000 km2, 48,000 km2 and 71,000 km2, respectively. These are the main cereal-growing regions of Spain and Germany. Soil moisture (SM) in the root zone was extracted from the LISFLOOD model database, and SM anomalies were used as the agricultural drought index. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) variables were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the month in which SM is most influential on these crop state variables was identified. Crop yields in Spain and Germany were obtained from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and the German Federal Statistical Office, respectively. Agricultural drought years and their impact on cereal yields were determined on a regional scale using three approaches based on the critical month with different time periods. These approaches were the use of the critical month and the two (before or after) and the three months (before and after) around the critical month. Two different analyses were used to identify the critical month, depending on the different environmental conditions in each country. These two approaches consisted of a monthly correlation analysis between SM anomalies and cereal yield in Spain and a monthly trend analysis of SM anomalies in Germany. The results showed a dependence of crop variables on SM in spring months in both countries and in summer months in Germany. Differences were found depending on the environmental conditions. A considerable reduction in cereal yields was obtained in Spain which exceeded 30%. Similarly, a worrying sign was observed in Germany, with a positive agricultural drought trend and a yield reduction of almost 5% in cereal crops. In view of future forecasts of the negative impact of climate change on global food production, this study provides valuable information for water and agricultural management under climate change scenarios. Both in regions that are already threatened and in those that until recently were not affected, it is necessary to study adaptation measures to avoid aggravating the impact of agricultural drought on crops, which could improve water productivity and future food security.

On the Health Impacts of Climatic Shocks: How Heatwaves Reduce Birthweight in Sub‐Saharan Africa

AbstractHeatwaves are among the most important global public health challenges of our time. Yet we know little about how exposure to heatwaves (as opposed to hot days) affects health at birth, which is a key contributor to health, development, and well‐being in later life. This study addresses this shortcoming by investigating the relationship between in utero exposure to heatwave and birthweight by assessing both the timing and mechanisms of heatwave effects. I use novel georeferenced survey data on birth and pregnancy outcomes from the latest round of the Demographic and Health Surveys to link the birth outcomes of 64,210 infants across 11 sub‐Saharan African countries with high‐resolution daily climate data. I find that infants exposed to heatwave in the third trimester of gestation had significantly lower birthweight and that this effect is mediated by reduced gestational age at birth instead of reduced intrauterine growth. The effect of heatwave is concentrated among male babies and mothers with no or little formal education. By highlighting how exposure to environmental conditions early in life shapes health outcomes with far‐reaching consequences, the findings carry lessons for policymakers to protect pregnant women from heatwave exposure to mitigate the negative impact of climate change.

Analysis of the impacts of carbon dioxide emission on climate change

In recent years, the global excess carbon dioxide emission had caused severe climate change and increase in global temperature since the start of Industrial Revolution. To be specific, extreme weathers have been observed all over the world due to global warming. Therefore, it is of vital importance that the causes of excess carbon dioxide emission should be studied along with respective mitigating strategies. On this basis, this study aims to study and investigate the global history and causes of excess carbon dioxide emission, as well as the physical chemical mechanism of greenhouse effect. In detail, case analysis of excess carbon dioxide emission in China is provided with the relevant negative impact of climate change in China. According to the analysis, policies adopted by the Chinese government and their efficiencies and corresponding suggestions are also discussed in the meantime. Overall, these results shed light on guiding further exploration of carbon dioxide emission on climate change.

Comparison of the Direct Power Consumption for Different Linac Treatment Parameters in External Beam Radiation Therapy

The negative impact of climate change on the environment has led to increasing concern around the world. Relatively little is known about the contribution of radiation oncology systems to carbon emissions. This study measures the energy utilization of Linac-based EBRT for different treatment parameters and techniques, which was then converted to power use (kWh) and ultimately a carbon footprint of various photon treatment approaches. A Varian TrueBeam was evaluated. The direct power consumption was measured using a Fluke 1736 Power Logger, recorded in one-second intervals for one week. Different photon and electron beam energies, dose rates, treatment techniques (3D, IMRT, gated), and imaging types (kV, MV) were evaluated. Clinical treatment plans were reviewed, and average treatment times used to determine kWh. IRB approval was obtained. The Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator was used to determine kg of CO2. Power draw for 6 MV, 10 MV, and 18 MV at a rep rate of 600 MU/min was 31.6, 32.0, and 27.5 kW, respectively. The power draw for end of range dose rates for 6 MV (60, 600), 6 FFF (400, 1400), 10 FFF (400, 2400), and 6 MeV (100, 1000) were (22.2, 31.6 kW), (23.7, 31.6 kW), (19.6, 32.1 kW), and (22.6, 23.6 kW), respectively. 6 MV open 2D fields, modulated IMRT fields, and gated/beam hold fields had similar power draw at 31.6, 31.7, and 31.9 kW, respectively. Portal MV imaging with 2.5 MV beam was 32.5 kW, while CBCT and kV/kV imaging was ∼11 kW and not distinguishable from baseline power fluctuations. A total of 191 delivered treatment plans were reviewed. Electron plans (n = 8) treatment time was on average 29 sec (16 sec STDEV) per fraction and 635 sec (185 sec STDEV) per course, 2D/3D plans (n = 63) were 77 sec (32 sec STDEV) and 1004 sec (1002 sec STDEV), and IMRT plans (n = 120) were 182 sec (60 sec STDEV) and 5351 sec (2401 sec STDEV), respectively. The kWh per treatment for electron, 2D/3D, and IMRT plans were 0.19, 0.68, and 1.6 kWh, respectively. The CO2 equivalent for electrons, 2D/3D, and IMRT techniques are 0.08, 0.29, and 0.7 kg. There was some variability in the power draw for different energies and different dose rates but was relatively stable around 32 kW. Power consumption for clinical therapy is a result of kW power draw multiplied by duration of beam delivery, which for our patients varied significantly as a function of technique and number of fractions delivered. Reduction in radiation oncology carbon footprint will likely be driven more by number of fractions and type of treatment technique, and length of patient commute, rather than beam energy and dose rate selection.

Do coastal communities in small islands value marine resources through marine protected areas?: Evidence from Kei Islands Indonesia with choice modelling

The pressure on the coastal region in either a developing or developing country is relatively similar, where climate change, preserving marine resources in the surrounding area, the rapid development of infrastructure in the region, and boosting the economy are the main topics. The differences are in the resources needed to deal with those problems. For remote areas such as the small islands region in an emerging developed country like Indonesia, the challenge is way more complicated than in the metropolitan region. The effort must come from the coastal communities in the region to initiate the movement to maintain the marine resources in the region; by doing so, it can generate more sustainable income and prepare the area for the negative impact of climate change. Thus, the study aimed to measure the value of protecting the surrounding marine area to increase resilience against climate change and preserve marine resources by coastal communities in the Kei Islands, Indonesia. We utilize choice modelling (CM) to measure the perception of coastal communities toward proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Data collected with choice cards and a questionnaire to check and tabulate the answer with a total of 655 respondents, three choices, and four levels of choices resulted in 26,975 datasets. The study found that most coastal communities support the idea of protecting marine resources, and the CM result showed that coastal protection is the main trigger for communities to implement MPA in the region. The result showed the importance of climate change in coastal regions.

Feasibility Analysis of the UN Security Council's Involvement in Climate Change Issues: Using Climate Refugees as An Entry Point

In view of the increasingly severe negative impact of climate change on mankind, and given the current limited international intervention in this issue, the intervention of the UN Security Council should be sought. This paper takes the issue of climate refugees as a starting point. It proposes a strict limitation on the definition of climate refugees to help identify climate refugees more scientifically and accurately in reality. Given the difficulty of forming an effective protection system for climate refugees under the international framework, the need for the Security Council to intervene has increased significantly. Moreover, given the potential threat of climate refugees to global security, and considering that there is already a similar precedent, the Security Council should, by Article 41 of the UN Charter, adopt a resolution requesting all countries to take practical measures to mitigate the effects of climate change to reduce the generation of climate refugees and deploy response plans in advance for possible future climate refugees

Examining the Effectiveness of Aerial Firefighting with the Components of Firebreak Requirements and Footprint Geometry—Critics of the Present Practice

The negative impact of climate change is increasingly evident in the severity of forest fires. Fires are becoming more intense and can often only be controlled by aerial means. Aerial firefighting is known as a very effective method—in some cases, it is the only option—of suppressing fire, but it is a very expensive solution. Recently, the effectiveness of this method has received a lot of criticism, with some studies showing a loss of between 60 and 95%, so it is worth approaching this issue in a different way. The aim of this study is to estimate losses using a new method that has not been used before. For this purpose, this study focuses on two components: the requirements of the firebreak and the geometry of the footprint. For the first, the rules of thumb of the practice were applied depending on the fireline intensity. One is the required coverage level of the surface with suppressant, and the other is the required wetted bandwidth, which is the firebreak. In practice, the firebreak should be 2–2.5 times wider than the length of the flame. For the footprint geometry, the author used the results of previous studies dealing with footprint formation. At the end, the design of the required firebreak and the simplified design of the footprint, which is an ellipsoid, were compared to each other. The results show that, in the case of a fireline intensity of 3 MWm−1 and a coverage level of 2.4 kgm−2, the loss is approximately 36.4–44.6% for the ellipsoidal footprint alone and 86–87.8% for the total amount of extinguishing agent. The conclusion is that future work should focus not on a more accurate description and understanding of emissions but on developing a technology that can change the shape of the footprint from an elliptical to a rectangular shape.

Determinants of Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Hyper-Arid Partially Irrigated Western Plain of Rajasthan, India

Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, mainly the agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to the negative impact of climate change. Using cross-sectional data of 120 farmers collected from three blocks of the Jaisalmer district of the hyper-arid partially irrigated western plain of Rajasthan, this study investigates farmers' adaptation measures to climate change and their determinants of adaptive strategies. The study used a logistic model to analyze the relationship between binary dependent variables and other explanatory variables. According to logistic regression results, factors such as land area, farming experience, and household income are positively related to climate change adaptation strategies. The marginal effects for the land area (0.040), farming experience (0.004), and household income (0.00). Further, the result of the study also shows the basic adaptation measures adopted by the farmers are mulching, changing in the crop, changing in sowing date, changing in cultivation practices, changing in water management and changing in input management. According to the study's findings, farmers' well-being will be improved by more significant investment in farmer education, farmers’ training through Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK), and financial inclusion through Kisan Credit Card (KCC) for climate change adaptation.

Evaluating the performance of turbulence closure models for tidal stream resource characterization

Harvesting tidal stream energy from the ocean for electricity generation has been considered as an energy resource alternative to fossil fuels for mitigating the negative impact of climate change and enhancing energy security and coastal resilience. Numerical models have been used extensively to characterize and assess tidal resources at potential tidal energy development sites. Turbulence plays an important role in site selection and tidal turbine farm deployment. However, most of the numerical modeling studies for tidal energy resource characterization do not include turbulence characteristics because of the limitation of Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes coastal ocean model in resolving the inertial sub-range turbulence scales. However, studies also demonstrated that turbulence properties, such as turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy, simulated by the coastal ocean models based on turbulence closures can be useful in assisting tidal resource characterization at tidal energy sites. In this study, we evaluated four General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) turbulence closure models implemented in a tidal hydrodynamic model –Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to characterize the tidal energy resource in the Western Passage, Maine, USA – a top ranked tidal energy site. The four turbulence closure models used in this analysis are k–kl (Mellor–Yamada Level 2.5), k-ε, k–ω, and a generic model. Model sensitivities showed that the MY2.5 model performed the best in comparison with the field measurements. In particular, the simulated time series of turbulence intensity and kinetic energy matched the observed data very well in the Western Passage. Detailed analysis was conducted to characterize turbulence properties on the horizontal plane and at selective cross-sections. This study demonstrated that turbulence properties simulated by a coastal ocean model, along with tidal hydrodynamic properties, can be very informative for tidal energy resource characterization and project site selection, as recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) technical specifications (IEC TS 62600-201).

How climate change and international trade will shape the future global soybean security pattern

Soybean planting is highly concentrated and sensitive to climate change, which makes global soybean security vulnerable to production fluctuations in the main producing countries. As an important trade commodity, the impacts of climate change on soybean production in the main producing countries can ripple globally through international trade. However, little is known about the spatial distribution of soybean security under future climate at the global scale. This study couples an ensemble of multi-crop models and a global economic model (GTAP, Global Trade Analysis Project) to evaluate variations in soybean yield of the top ten soybean-producing countries in the 2050s (2046–2055) and the consequent impacts on global soybean supply and price under a range of future climate scenarios. Our results show that (1) The top ten soybean-producing countries, accounting for nearly 97% of global soybean production, suffer an average soybean yield reduction of 0.82% (specific to each country: −5.81%∼7.05%), 0.43% (−23.5%∼11.72%) and 5.22% (−17.88%∼18.73%) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, when considering the fertilization effect of CO2. A substantial soybean yield loss of 19.51% (−28.86%∼2.97%) is projected under RCP8.5 without accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect. (2) Climate-induced yield reduction leads to insufficient soybean supply and higher price worldwide through the transmission of international trade, with the largest supply decline of 14.20% in Bolivia and the largest price increase of 91.19% in India. Regionally, soybean net-importing countries are more vulnerable because of the ripple effect of the soybean supply chain. For example, despite a simulated increase in soybean yield of 2.97%–18.73%, China's soybean supply will decline by 0.61%–2.27% due to import shortages from the United States and Brazil where severe soybean yield losses are witnessed. (3) Liberal trade does dampen the negative impact of climate change on global soybean supply and price by reducing trade costs and facilitating trade flows, but in soybean export-oriented regions, trade liberalization can result in increased exports at the expense of domestic soybean supply (e.g., Canada and Russia). Our findings highlight the necessity of developing a liberal trade policy that benefits all regions of the world and improving domestic soybean productivity to adapt to climate change.

Heritage and Environment: Greenery as a Climate Change Mitigation Factor in Selected UNESCO Sites in Krakow

The quantity and condition of urban greenery directly affect the quality of life of residents and space users. This quality is linked to measures that reduce the negative impact of climate change. It was assumed that urban greenery should not only be protected but also should have its stock increased, which is not easy in a historical, compact structure under statutory conservation. This paper discusses the issue of green areas in the strict city centre of Krakow, a UNESCO World Heritage Site since 1978. The study area includes two medieval towns that had their town charters issued in the 13th and 14th centuries, which together formed a central town and a satellite town. Kazimierz and Stradom were subjected to a detailed investigation. A review of the literature and other sources made it possible to identify changes in the structure of green spaces in terms of chronology and quantity. Changes in the area, accessibility and the legal provisions arising from the various forms of statutory conservation and their consequences were analysed. Multi-criteria analyses of the historical urban structure and the types, forms and potential for introducing greenery into the historical area were also performed. The intention was to strengthen green infrastructure, which is a key element in climate change mitigation.