Negative Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Factors Affecting the Sustainability of Corporates in Polluting Sectors

Corporate sustainability performance is gaining ever greater importance. The negative impact of climate change is manifested through heavy air, water and soil pollution. Polluting sectors, as the major players, are characterized by large amounts of emissions, waste and consumption of resources, and therefore have a larger negative impact on the environment. Companies operating in polluting sectors are recognized globally as the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions; thus, their performance is widely debated. Despite their character, such companies strive for higher profitability, better financial performance and operational efficiency. However, higher financial resources create the potential for innovation investments in companies. It is widely accepted that research and experimental development (R&D) expenditures enable new business ideas, models, products, services, and processes. However, while pursuing sustainability targets, financial results could be directed towards sustainability performance. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the financial and innovation results of companies in polluting sectors interact with sustainability performance scores. For it, we have identified three essential pillars of sustainability: environmental, governance, and social. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, models were developed for each pillar of sustainability, including corporate financial performance indicators and R&D expenditures. The obtained results provide the insights that a company operating in polluting sector size and turnover significantly interacts with all pillars of sustainability. However, we also found that the corporate debt ratio, earnings ratio, and current liquidity have a significant relation only with environmental and social sustainability indicators.

Climate-smart agriculture and food security in climate-vulnerable coastal areas of Bangladesh

The issue of global climate change is increasingly worrisome, particularly for countries heavily reliant on agriculture. To reduce the negative impact of climate change on agriculture, farmers of Bangladesh started adopting different climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices. The CSA sustainably increases productivity, resilience, and food security, which can contribute to the achievement of a number of sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, the adoption of CSA is low especially in the climate-vulnerable coastal areas of Bangladesh. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the factors affecting the adoption of CSA and its influence on coastal household’s food security. A total of 327 sample farmers from three coastal districts of Bangladesh were interviewed. The collected data were then analyzed by using the binary probit and ordered probit model. The findings indicated that highest 65% of farmers adopted early planting of rice as one of CSA practices. The adoption of CSA practices positively affected by the household annual income, extension services and awareness regarding CSA practices. Moreover, the adopters of CSA were more food secure than non-adopters. For instance, adoption of one additional CSA practice leads to an increase in the likelihood of being food secure by 4.3%. In terms of policy perspective, the adoption of CSA in the coastal areas can be increased through creation of employment opportunities, increasing access to extension services, and broadcasting of CSA-related programs on mass media.

Weathering the Storm: Unravelling the Influence of Climate Change Risk Exposure on Firms’ Human Capital Investment

AbstractBuilding on agency theory, this study examines the impact of climate change risks on corporate investment in human capital as a key factor of production. Using a sample of US listed firms for the period 1989–2017, we find that firms respond to the growing climate risks by enhancing efficiency in human capital investment, primarily through a reduction in over‐hiring, consistent with our conjecture that firms adopt more prudent and efficient recruitment strategies in reaction to higher climate risks. Cross‐sectional analyses suggest that such an improvement in human capital investment decisions is more salient for firms with poor corporate governance, less intellectual capital and facing greater industry competition and less pronounced for firms with more resilient assets against climate change. By exploiting two exogenous events that cause significant increases in climate risk as quasi‐natural experiments, we conduct difference‐in‐differences analyses and find consistent evidence that the firms engage in more efficient human capital investment in response to both the physical and regulatory risks of climate change. Collectively, despite the overwhelming negative impact of climate change, our study reveals that such risks can play a disciplinary role in promoting more efficient managerial decisions on human capital investment.

The Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Flora and Fauna on Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems

The Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Flora and Fauna on Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems

The impact of climate change on mental health of children and adolescents

Climate change can affect the mental health of children and adolescents. This age group is considered particularly vulnerable to this impact because they are in a period of cognitive and emotional development, during which they are still developing their coping skills. Children and teenagers with pre-existing mental health disorders, such as depression or anxiety, are especially at risk. It is important for parents, medical personnel, and others working with children and adolescents to have the necessary knowledge to help them cope with these challenges. This publication aims to present the current state of knowledge regarding the impact of climate change on the mental health of children and adolescents. Both the direct and indirect effects of these changes will be analyzed, along with strategies for coping with them. By understanding the potential risks, it is possible to develop effective psychological support strategies to minimize the negative impact of climate change on children and adolescents.

Exploring adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in dryland farming systems and impact on pearl millet production under climate change in West Africa

Understanding and identifying appropriate adaptation optons for cropping systems and management practices at spatial and temporal scales is an important prerequisite for scaling. Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L) R. Br.) could be regarded as a risk-reducing measure crop under climate change when coupled with tactical agronomic management practices. In this study, we assess the impacts of adaptation strategies such as cultivar type, planting windows, and fertilizer strategies on pearl millet production under rainfed farming systems over Nigeria and Senegal using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. The impact of climate change on millet yield was evaluated using a validated APSIM-millet module that utilized yield data collected through participatory research and extension approach (PREA) in contrasting environments. The climate model projections for the mid-century period (2040–2069) were compared against a baseline period of 1980–2009 for both locations. During the simulation, two millet varieties (improved local and dual-purpose) with two sowing regimes were considered comparing traditional farmers’ sowing window (dry sowing) and agronomic sowing window (planting based on the onset of the rainfall) at three different fertilizer levels [low (23 kg N ha−1), medium (40.5 kg N ha−1), and high (68.5 kg N ha−1) respectively]. The performance of the APSIM-millet module was found to be satisfactory as indicated by the low Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) values. The range for grain yield was between 17.7% and 25.8%, while for AGB it was between 18.6% and 21.4%. The results showed that farmers’ sowing window simulated slightly higher grain yield than the agronomic sowing window for improved local millet cultivar indicating yield increased by 8–12%. However, the projected changes in the mid-century (2040–2069) resulted in a decline in yield against baseline climate for both varieties and sowing windows, indicating the negative impact of climate change (CC) on yield productivity. The comparison between dual-purpose millet and improved local millet indicates that disseminating the improved millet variety and implementing early sowing could be an effective adaptation strategy in reducing risks and losses caused by climate change. Similarly, low magnitude impacts simulated on grain yield (< −8% in Nigeria compared to > −8% in Senegal) even though both locations are in the same agroecological zone.

Unbacked Cryptomoney, Fiscal Evasion and Environment Tax: Some Policy Recommendations in Europe

In a 2019 New York Times article, Paul Krugman declared himself a “crypto skeptic” and shared his pessimistic predictions for cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, unbacked cryptomoney is now very important in our societies and has revolutionized the monetary and financial landscape as exemplified by the increased pressure from competent regulators to monitor and regulate it. Cryptocurrencies are described by their high volatility that permits regulators to define them as non-safe financial assets when it comes to energy consumption. The anonymous property of cryptocurrencies opens the door to tax evasion, making it especially susceptible to avoiding environment-related taxes aimed at tackling negative impact of climate change. Against this background, the paper sets a twofold aim: to demonstrate that unbacked cryptomoney is volatile and it may pose a threat to financial and fiscal stability; and to develop the idea that, given their different degrees of anonymity and their decentralisation nature, cryptocurrencies could actively participate in the process of tax evasion and therefore incur high costs for countries. Given the general ecological condition and ensuing concerns, it is clear that avoiding eco-taxes represents a serious issue since money from eco-taxation could have been invested in environmental social and governance projects. Therefore, a clear and compelling legal framework should be implemented worldwide to reduce the tax evasion phenomena via cryptomoney channels.

Impacts of Climate change on soil microbial diversity, distribution and abundance

Climate change, driven by anthropogenic activities, has far-reaching consequences for our planet. Among its many impacts, changes in temperature, elevated carbon dioxide levels, and shifts in greenhouse gas concentrations significantly affect soil ecosystems. In particular, soil microbial communities play a pivotal role in nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition, and overall soil health. Soil microbial communities respond differently to the effects of climate change, like elevated warming and precipitation. The change in climatic conditions is reported to be adversely affecting soil biological activity directly through either drying or wetting of soil or affecting their associated plants. This review delves into the intricate relationship between climate change and soil microbial abundance, diversity, and distribution. The paper also discusses climatic change pressure on soil enzymatic activity and microbial biomasses, as well as soil faunal activity, as they are key indicators of soil health in a changing climate. Soil microbial communities cope with climate change by changing their diversity and physiological characteristics and by changing their symbiotic plants, which indicates the role of soil microbes in withstanding the negative impact of climate change.

Maize migration mitigates the negative impact of climate change on China’s maize yield

Crop migration as an adaptation to modulate climate change’s impact on crop yields presents both benefits and risks. We explored how maize migration in China modulates yield responses to climate change and quantified the potential economic benefits of maize migration as an adaptation strategy. We employed a panel data model to identify and measure the factors driving the relocation of maize area, linear regression to quantify the effects of maize migration on climate exposure and irrigated area, and an econometric model to estimate the effects of maize migration on yield. The results show that rise in temperature has a significant negative effect on maize area and that precipitation has a significant positive effect. The migration of maize area is driven by socio-economic factors including agricultural gross domestic product, power of farming machines, and fertilizer input. Moreover, expanded irrigation reduces the adverse effects of high temperatures on maize yield, thereby influencing adaptive crop migrations. The beneficial effects of maize migration are primarily achieved by reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat and strengthening the positive effects of irrigation. However, the extent of this adaptation is jointly affected by agricultural policies, irrigation infrastructure, and economic factors. Current market-oriented agricultural policies may be effective in guiding spatial shifts in maize distribution to align with climate-driven changes, potentially decreasing the vulnerability of China’s maize yield to the impact of climate change. China’s food security policies need to consider climate-driven spatial shifts in crop cultivation and enhance food subsidy policies to highlight the benefits of investment in climate change adaptation, such as adjusting cropping acreage and irrigation to farmers in North China.

Using an integrated hydro-economic model to determine the drought and energy relationship in the Upper Euphrates Basin

ABSTRACT Decreasing precipitation in the Upper Euphrates Basin and the negative impact of climate change directly affect water resources and hydroelectricity generation in the basin. This basin, which contains the largest dams in terms of hydroelectricity generation potential, requires research studies to assess and characterize drought for risk prevention and mitigation applicable to water resources management. To better assess drought in the upper Euphrates Basin due to recent warming, FEHEM is developed, a hydro-economic optimization model of the integrated reservoir system of the Upper Euphrates Basin. Using a historical hydrological dataset, water management and hydroelectric operations are evaluated with a linear programming model at monthly time steps. This paper uses two different drought indices: (1) the standardized precipitation index, which is based on precipitation alone; and (2) the reconnaissance drought index, which takes into account both evaporation and precipitation. These indices were used to evaluate the impact of temporal drought characteristics in the Upper Euphrates Basin on the hydropower generation of 10 dams with a total installed capacity of over 3255 MW in the basin, based on 45 years of precipitation data from more than a hundred measuring stations in the basin.

The (In)Vulnerable: the futures of the Halligen in the North Sea in the face of climate change

Islands and small island groups are among the areas most affected by global climate change and face major adaptation challenges. Their role as hotspots of climate change impacts is widely recognized in the scientific literature, and it is not uncommon for small islands to act as poster children for particular climate-related vulnerability. Nonetheless, many island communities have a long tradition of living with oceanic influences, and the question is whether such habitats, where terrestrial and marine ecosystems overlap, have characteristics that contribute to greater self-regulation and resilience. The question is further whether and how the future or possible futures of such an exposed region and society could unfold, considering the negative impact of climate change and the resulting burden of natural disasters. The Halligen in the southern North Sea are an exceptional example of such a situation, and they are to be examined in this study particularly due to their extremely uncertain future. Questions regarding the future arise even more urgently due to the rapidly advancing sea-level rise in the course of climate change. They were already evident in a local field research in 2014 and for current reasons the collected interview material shall be analyzed under this prospective point of view. So what, under these harsh circumstances, might the futures of the Halligen look like? What does it mean for the future of a habitat and a society when the constant risk of storm surges is multiplied by the global risk of climate change and rising sea level? By examining this question from an interdisciplinary perspective in the present study, multiple answers can be provided. The futures differ significantly depending on the perspective from which one looks into the future. However, it is precisely this multidimensionality and heterogeneity that can pose an advantage when considering the unpredictability of future developments. Choosing this very specific region for the study also adds to the benefit – because: If the conditions change, if the strength of the environmental influences change in regions where two ecosystems overlap and which are particularly vulnerable due to their islandness, dealing with and adapting to the consequences of global warming becomes a glimpse into the future of all of us.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Teinopalpus aureus Mell, 1923 (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) in China Using Habitat Suitability Models

The Golden Kaiser-I-Hind (Teinopalpus aureus Mell, 1923) is the only butterfly among Class I national protected animals in China and is known as the national butterfly. In this study, by accurately predicting the suitable habitat in China under current and future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of T. aureus was defined, providing a theoretical basis for conservation and management. Based on species distribution records, we utilized the Biomod2 platform to combine climate data from the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model, future shared socio-economic pathways, and altitude data. The potential distribution areas of T. aureus in the current (1970–2000s) and future SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 climate scenarios in China in 2041–2060 (2050s), 2061–2080 (2070s), and 2081–2100 (2090s) were predicted. The AUC and TSS values of the combined model based on five algorithms were greater than those of the single models, and the AUC value of the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.990, indicating that the model had high reliability and accuracy. The screening of environmental variables showed that the habitat area of T. aureus in China was mainly affected by annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, temperature seasonality, elevation, and other factors. Under the current circumstances, the habitat area of T. aureus was mainly located in southern China, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Taiwan, and other provinces. The suitable area is approximately 138.95 × 104 km2; among them, the highly suitable area of 34.43 × 104 km2 is a priority area in urgent need of protection. Under both SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5, the population centroid tended to shift southward in the 2050s and 2070s, and began to migrate northeast in the 2090s. Temperature, rainfall, and altitude influenced the distribution of T. aureus. In the two climate scenarios, the habitat area of T. aureus declined to different degrees, and the reduction was most obvious in the SSP5_8.5 scenario; climate was the most likely environmental variable to cause a change in the geographical distribution. Climate change will significantly affect the evolution and potential distribution of T. aureus in China and will increase the risk of extinction. Accordingly, it is necessary to strengthen protection and to implement active and effective measures to reduce the negative impact of climate change on T. aureus.

Climate change and eye health

Abstract The negative impact of climate change on human health is well documented but under-recognized (e.g., air pollution, malnutrition, water-source contamination, and altered vector and waterborne transmission of infectious disease). The impact of climate change on eye health remains significantly underappreciated, whereas climate change impacts every country, lower and lesser-income countries will be disproportionately affected further exacerbating global health inequalities. In this manuscript, we examine the potential effects of climate changes on ocular health on our planet.

Tracing the contribution of cattle farms to methane emissions through bibliometric analyses

Methane contributes to global warming, and livestock is one of the sources of methane production. However, methane emission studies using bibliometric tools in livestock are lacking. Given the negative impact of climate change on the ecosystem and the rise in methane emissions, it is essential to conduct a bibliometrics study to provide an overview and research trends. We used the Bibliometrix package and VOSviewer to decipher bibliometric indices for methane emissions in cattle farms (MECF). Current dataset were collected from the Web of Science (Core Collection) database, and 8,998 publications were analyzed. The most co-occurring keywords scientists preferred were methane (1528), greenhouse gas (443), methane emissions (440), and cattle (369). Methane was the most frequently used keyword in the published scientific literature. Thematic evolution of research themes and trend results highlighted carbon dioxide, methane, dairy cattle, cattle, and risk factors during 1999-2017. Chinese Academy of Sciences ranked on top with 485 publications, followed by Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, University of Colorado, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Aarhus University. Chinese Academy of Sciences was also the most cited organization, followed by the University of Colorado, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and United States Geological Survey. Source analysis showed that the Science of the Total Environment was cited with the highest total link strength. “Science of the Total Environment” ranked first in source core 1 with 290 citation frequencies, followed by “Journal of Dairy Science” with 223 citation frequencies. Currently, no bibliometric study has been conducted on MECF, and to fill this knowledge gap, we carried out this study to highlight methane emissions in cattle farms, aiming at a climate change perspective. In this regard, we focused on the research productivity of countries authors, journals and institutions, co-occurrence of keywords, evolution of research trends, and collaborative networking. Based on relevance degree of centrality, methane emissions and greenhouse gases appeared as basic themes, cattle, and dairy cattle appeared as emerging/declining themes, whereas, methane, greenhouse gas and nitrous oxide appeared to fall amongst basic and motor themes. On the other hand, beef cattle, rumen and dairy cow seem to be between motor and niche themes, and risk factors lie in niche themes. The present bibliometric analysis provides research progress on methane emissions in cattle farms. Current findings may provide a framework for understanding research trends and themes in methane emissions in cattle farms (MECF) research.

A Geospatial Analysis of Environmental Impacts of Climate Change on Osogbo and Environs

Climate change is one of the alarming global environmental changes likely to have deleterious effects on natural, social, cultural, and human systems. The risks associated with it call for a broad spectrum of policy responses and strategies at local, regional, national, and global levels. This research aims to carry out a geospatial analysis of the environmental impact of climate change on Osogbo and its environs with a view to providing information towards mitigating the negative impact of climate change in the study area. This study uses Landsat 4, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 satellite data from 1982, 2002, and 2022, respectively, to evaluate land cover and temperature variation as a climatic change in the study area over four decades. The land survey method was carried out to collect ground truth data for validation of the satellite imageries. The drought map was produced based on the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) map computed from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and was further classified into three categories: moderate, mild, and no drought. Analysis of the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) of the study area shows that the vegetation decreased from 84% in 1982 to 59% in 2002 and 56% in 2022. The built-up/exposed surface increased from 15.28% in 1982 to 38% in 2002 and 41.28% in 2022. The water bodies also increased from 0.17% in 1982 to 15.31% in 2022. LST analysis reveals that the mean temperature of the study area increased by 10.73 °C during the past four decades (from 1982 to 2022), with the most accelerated warming (11.41 °C) occurring during the last two decades (from 2002 to 2022). The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) based drought map shows that there was no extreme or severe drought in the study area. However, moderate and mild droughts were observed mostly in the developed part of the study area, which confirmed the presence of drought. It is hereby recommended to introduce sustainable water management strategies to mitigate water shortage in the study area.

Practical Analysis of Stock Market Under ESG

In today's era, climate change brought about by the greenhouse effect is gradually bringing more and more economic losses and natural disasters. In order to mitigate the negative impact of climate change, many countries have jointly formulated a 1.5°C climate scenario, which has brought a lot of impact on the global economy and industry development (Henderson et al., 2020). At the same time, my client commissioned me to build a portfolio that complies with the 1.5°C climate scenario, and the shares must be included in the S&P 500 Net Zero 2050 Climate Transition ESG Index as of 30/09/2022. The total portfolio is $100,000, and the benchmark designates the S&P 500 Net Zero 2050 Climate Transition ESG Index. Because the investment horizon is short and only six weeks, I chose semi-active management in my portfolio management process, and the rebalancing method was selected as percentage rebalancing. Finally, based on macro and industry analysis and relative valuation and technical analysis of the corresponding stocks, I selected ten stocks: Starbucks Corporation, Tesla, Inc., Amgen Inc., Cisco Systems, Inc., Eversource Energy, The Coca-Cola Company, and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., Trans Digm Group Incorporated， Netflix, Inc., S&P Global Inc. I calculated their respective shares using the Markowitz model and bought and rebalanced, but unfortunately, my portfolio did not work as expected. The sector index fell by 4.87% in the week of the investment term, but my portfolio fell by 7.45% and performed poorly. Among them, the collapse of Tesla due to special events and my previous judgment of Tesla were greatly affected, and although its share price was only 9.94%, its share price fell by 33.74%. Although the late-stage rebalancing gave me hope for the better, the short investment horizon became a significant obstacle to the improvement of my portfolio.

Bрожайність ранньостиглих сортів картоплі за впливу природно-кліматичних умов західного лісостепу

Agriculture remains a key branch of the economy, ensuring food security and the production of important types of raw materials, but due to the fact that predictive assessments demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on the yield of agricultural crops, there is a need to modernize existing models of agricultural production and improve methods of managing agricultural systems with taking into account climate change. The issues of optimization of obtaining high productivity of potatoes, in certain regions, should first of all be aimed at the rational use of natural and climatic conditions of the year, with the aim of timely revision of the cultivation technology, which would correspond to the most complete realization of the agro-climatic potential of the research area, namely the Western Forest-Steppe. Solving this task depends on the degree of study of the interaction and interdependence of the influence of natural and climatic conditions on the processes of formation of yield and quality of potatoes. The results of the analysis of weather and climate conditions in the Western Forest-Steppe during 2010-2023 and their impact on the yield of early-ripening potato varieties are presented. It was investigated that the meteorological conditions in some years fluctuated sharply in comparison both to previous years and to the average long-term data. This is especially true about the total amount of precipitation and its distribution during the potato growing season, because with regard to the dynamics of the temperature regime, as already noted, a significant increase has been observed. Despite this during the potato growing season the temperature and water conditions provided favorable conditions for obtaining a high yield of early-ripening potato varieties. The presented results of the analysis of weather and climate conditions in the Western Forest-Steppe during 2010-2023 indicate a positive effect on the yield of potato varieties of the early-ripening group. It was established that the weather and climatic conditions of the research area favor the cultivation of potato varieties of the early-ripening group, and the yield compared to the standard variety increased by 0.9-5.2 t/ha. The conducted analysis makes it possible to select the most productive potato varieties of the early-ripening group, which are the most optimal for cultivation in the conditions of the Western Forest-Steppe of Ukraine as well as further study and improvement regarding the formation of their productivity

The impact of climate change on student psychological distress

Indonesia is now experiencing abnormal severe hot weather, where El-Nino causes the increasing temperature to be above the average. Although El Nino is a common phenomenon that occurs naturally, climate change factors exacerbate the adverse impact of El Nino on human life. Many studies have presented empirical evidence on how climate change significantly affects individuals’ mental health, distress, burnout, and other related psychological wellbeing. However, little attention has been paid to the relationship between students’ psychological wellbeing and climate change, especially in Indonesia. This research aims to understand how environmental aspects can harm students’ psychological wellbeing, by measuring the correlation between climate change, mental health, and psychological distress. The variables that will be observed in this research are climate change exposure, pro-environmental behaviour, psychological distress, and positive mental health. Using the online survey method, the respondents of this research will be undergraduate students from many different universities in Indonesia. This research is expected to present the negative impact of climate change on positive mental health and psychological distress, which is moderated by environmental awareness.

The three eras of global inequality, 1820–2020 with the focus on the past thirty years

The paper reestimates global inequality between 1820 and 1980, reappraises the results up to 2013, and presents new inequality estimates for 2018. It shows that historically, global inequality has followed three eras: the first, from 1820 until 1950, characterized by rising income differences both between and within countries; the second, from 1950 to the last decade of the 20th century, with very high global and between-country inequality; and the current one of decreasing inequality thanks to the rise of Asian incomes, and especially so Chinese. The present era has seen the emergence of the global “median” class (people with per capita annual incomes ranging between $PPP 3,000 and $PPP 5,000) and the greatest reshuffling in income positions between the West and China since the Industrial Revolution. Absolute income differences in the past 30 years have however increased, and the income gap between the “core” and the poor “periphery” (if China is excluded) remains large: the ratio between median income in the core and periphery in 2018 exceeds 8 to 1 in PPP terms, and 22 to 1 in nominal dollars. The evolution of global inequality in the future will much more depend on what happens to the growth rates and inequality in India and large African countries than on China, as well as on the negative impact of climate change.

Trends and climate response in the yield of staple crops across Northeast China

Understanding how climate change has been affecting crop yield is a prerequisite to inform adaptation decisions and to ensure global food security. The Northeast China (NEC), located in high-latitude area, is significantly affected by climate change. There is a high demand for quantitative information on impacts of climate variability on crop yields in NEC. In this study, we applied panel regression models to explore the yield-climate relationship and its spatial variations based on experimentally observed yield (Ys) and the county-scale statistical yield (Yc) of three typical crops (e.g., maize, rice and soybean) across NEC from 1981 to 2010, as well as contemporary climate data. The results indicated that Ys (Yc) of maize, rice and soybean during the past three decades increased by 64.2% (82.0%), 47.5% (55.3%), and 59.2% (58.0%), respectively. Moreover, we found climate during crop growth period had changed significantly and the change had caused measurable impacts on crop yields. Changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation jointly decreased Ys (Yc) of maize and soybean by 1.3% (0.7%) and 0.3% (1.1%), respectively, however increased Ys (Yc) of rice by 1.2% (2.2%), with a large spatial difference. Therefore, the impact of climate change on yields of three crops was far less than the actual increase in crop yields. Our finding suggest that other factors, mainly improved management practices, may be the main reason for the significant increase in crop yields in NEC over the past few decades. Although historical climate change also played an important role in the yields of three crops, certain improvement in management measures not only compensated for the negative impact of climate change, but also greatly promoted the increase in crop yields. Therefore, in proposing strategies for crop production to cope with climate change, we need in-depth assessments of the role of improved management.