Negative Climate Change Research Articles

Agricultural greenhouse CO2 utilization in anaerobic-digestion-based biomethane production plants: A techno-economic and environmental assessment and comparison with CO2 geological storage

Anaerobic digestion plants enable the production of power, heat and fuel. Biogas can be upgraded to biomethane fulfilling grid injection requirements by separating CH4 from CO2. By- product CO2 could be geologically stored or utilized as a feedstock to produce valuable goods, enabling in both cases negative climate change impact fuel production. CO2 utilization could as well improve plant economics, as a consequence of the profits related to the commercialization of the final products whilst allowing further emission reductions.In this paper, a techno-economic assessment of the use of the CO2 by-product in CO2-enriched agricultural greenhouses for tomato production is discussed. The results of the research show that, depending on the operating mode and the design approach, the use of a greenhouse enables the recovery of 14–67% of the by-product CO2 when the internal CO2 concentration is kept at 1000 ppm. In addition, it is estimated that the associated heat and power demand ranges from 0.097 to 0.138 kWhth/kg of used CO2 and 0.04–0.05 kWe/kg of used CO2, respectively. Revenues related to the tomato production are partially offset by the greenhouse capital investment and operating costs; however, a net profit between 16 and 19 p/kg of used CO2 was calculated, leading to a net profit of 1.3–1.6 p/kWh of injected biomethane. These results show that CO2 utilization is technically feasible and economically more convenient than CO2 storage. While both geological storage and CO2 utilization would allow negative climate change impact fuel production, the net greenhouse emission savings for the utilization configuration were found to be strongly dependent on the assumptions regarding fuel substitution for the produced biomethane.

Informing notions of climate change adaptation: a case study of everyday gendered realities of climate change adaptation in an informal settlement in Dar es Salaam

This paper examines the gendered dynamics of climate change adaptation in a rapidly urbanizing area of the global South. As climate change adaptation gains increasing prominence in global environmental policies and development strategies, there is a tendency to conceptualize adaptation as a technical process, disconnected from the everyday reality of how adaptation is practised by people facing negative climate change impacts. We present evidence from a small-scale case study of a flood-prone informal settlement in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania to provide a contextually grounded contribution to a growing body of literature on gender, climate change and cities. We argue that the way climate change impacts are perceived, experienced and adapted to on an everyday level is characterized by gendered differences (among others). We demonstrate that a greater understanding of these gendered nuances highlights the disconnect between everyday gendered realities and a high-level technical notion of adaptation deployed at strategic and policy levels.

How do Canadian media report climate change impacts on health? A newspaper review

Research on climate change media coverage is growing. Few studies, however, have investigated how the media portrays climate change impacts on human health. This review, therefore, presents a quantitative spatiotemporal analysis of Canadian newspaper coverage of climate change impacts on health between 2005 and 2015. Using the ProQuest® and Eureka® databases, a multiphase systematic review strategy was employed to identify relevant English and French articles from two national and six regional high-circulation newspapers. Quantitative and qualitative data were extracted from 145 articles and analyzed to characterize the range, extent, and nature of climate-health newspaper coverage in Canada and to compare these characteristics by region and over time. Coverage varied by region, with the highest proportion of climate-health coverage in Northern Territories (Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut). Over time, there was a decreasing publication frequency trend. Almost all articles described negative climate change impacts on health, with a predominant focus on infectious and chronic noninfectious diseases; however, less than half of the articles discussed climate change solutions. These trends suggest that current media coverage might not drive widespread public support for policies and actions needed to protect against projected climate-health risks. Consequently, as climate change continues to challenge human health, increasing media emphasis on climate change impacts on human health, as well as a shift toward enabling and empowering climate change communication, in which viable mitigation and adaptation options are emphasized, could help to spur action to reduce climate change health risks.

“Be Worried, be VERY Worried:” Preferences for and Impacts of Negative Emotional Climate Change Communication

While communication experts largely recommend avoiding climate change messages that create negative emotional states, little is known regarding how members of the public use emotions in their own communication about climate change. Given the important role individuals can play in addressing climate change via their interpersonal communication, it is important to understand preferences for using or avoiding communication framed with negative emotions, and their ultimate impact on taking action to address climate change. Further, social expectations about the use of emotions may influence whether individuals’ gender and political identity impacts their preference for using specific types of emotions. Three studies tested preferences for and impacts of three negative emotions common to climate change responses: fear, sadness, and anger, in comparison to messages framed without emotion. Findings indicate that people generally prefer messages framed without emotion, although in line with predictions, women and Democrats are more apt to prefer emotional messages than men and Republicans. Although participants say they prefer messages framed without emotion, climate change messages framed with negative emotions are more likely than messages framed without emotion to match participants’ feelings on climate change, while messages framed with specific types of negative emotions are more likely than messages framed without emotion to convey impressions of the speaker as rational, strong, and caring, which in turn predict greater preference for emotional over non-emotional messages. Further, results from a petition-signing study indicate that communicating with negative emotions does not promote nor hinder behavioral engagement.

Transformation of the Energy Sector in Conditions of Digital Economy

Negative climate change processes on our planet, along with rapid development of macroeconomics, stipulate the necessity of the energy sector transformation. Constant increase in energy consumption due to the growing needs of industry and population, including electric lighting, which according to OECD and IEA is going to increase by 80 % by 2050, accentuates the need to address issues related to energy conservation and energy efficiency on a global scale. At the same time, steady economic growth of any state is closely related to the availability of sufficient electricity volume. Given the current trends in the development of digital economy, which depends entirely on reliable and efficient electricity supply, the transition to low­carbohydrate power systems is a matter of concern for the vast majority of countries interested, on the one hand, in a favourable environment, and on the other hand, in stable and sustained economic growth. The given study is devoted to the interrelationship between improving energy efficiency and solving environmental problems, which, under the national idea of developing digital economy and joining the Paris Agreement on climate, is extremely relevant for Russia.

CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES

The article presents the current state of challenges that the European Union faces in the field of climate and energy policy for sustainable development. As part of the triad of goals, the implementation of ensuring the security of supply and competitiveness of the EU countries was shown while maintaining the absence of negative climate change. The aim of the article is to evaluate contemporary activities in the field of energy and climate and forecast possible development prospects depending on the implementation of the most likely international initiatives in this field.

Community perceptions of socioecological stressors and risk-reducing strategies in Tabasco, Mexico

Rural inhabitants in many parts of the world face multiple stressors associated with socioecological and climatic change, yet their risk-reducing strategies have rarely been linked to these stressors. Extant studies present unclear and often unspecific definitions of adaptation or focus on just one type of stressor rather than acknowledging that there can be multiple responses to myriad stressors. In an attempt to overcome some of these gaps, we utilize a typology of adaptation strategies that addresses deficiencies in the current adaptation literature. This research draws on qualitative interview data to examine resident perceptions of water-related socioecological and climatic changes and potential risk-reducing strategies within small rural communities in Tabasco, Mexico. The increased frequency of drought and flooding in low-lying areas near the Usumacinta River has reduced local community members’ ability to sustain their livelihoods. Results from interview analysis show that residents are using four major strategies that they perceive as helping them respond to water-related problems. They are mobility, diversification, communal pooling, and environmental management. Our findings contribute to understandings of rural community risk reduction strategies that may be shared by other rural communities in places around the world experiencing negative climate change impacts.

Imagining Futures of Energy

The future of energy is crucial for human mobility and well-being on a finite planet. What energy types are available to cover global needs? To what extent can they be produced and consumed safely? How can the negative effects of global warming, climate change, and environmental degradation be avoided? Who will benefit, and who will be at risk? Faced with such urgent questions, it was timely that the World Expo 2017 was dedicated to the theme of “Future Energy.” Held from June to September in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, a total of 115 countries, 22 international organizations, and several transnational corporations set up their own pavilions and exhibition spaces. Close to four million people visited the three-month-long expo, including an estimated five hundred thousand from abroad.

An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Macedonian Agriculture

Using a mixed input–output model, this study examines potential changes in sector output and water requirements in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the effects on the economy were quantified. The results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario due to moderate changes in precipitation and temperature and longer cropping period, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. Contrary, the medium and high climate change scenarios would negatively affect agriculture due to increase in temperature and decline in precipitation, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. As a result, water consumption by agriculture sector will increase by around 6% in the low climate change scenario, and decrease by around 8% and 16% in the medium and high climate change scenarios, respectively, relative to the current agriculture water consumption. Capital investment in irrigation equipment could mitigate the negative climate change impacts in the medium and high climate change scenarios. However, it would impose additional stresses on the existing limited water resource over time.

Climate Change and Schools: Environmental Hazards and Resiliency.

The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (U.S.) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental health in schools and lack of clear regulatory oversight in the U.S. undergird the new risks from climate change. We illustrate the extent of risk and the variation in vulnerability by geographic region, in the context of sparse systematically collected and comparable data particularly about school infrastructure. Additionally, we frame different resilience building initiatives, focusing on interventions that target root causes, or social determinants of health. Disaster response and recovery are also framed as resilience building efforts. Examples from U.S. Federal Region 2 (New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and nationally are used to illustrate these concepts. We conclude that better surveillance, more research, and increased federal and state oversight of environmental factors in schools (specific to climate risks) is necessary, as exposures result in short- and long term negative health effects and climate change risks will increase over time.

Essentials of Endorheic Basins and Lakes: A Review in the Context of Current and Future Water Resource Management and Mitigation Activities in Central Asia

Endorheic basins (i.e., land-locked drainage networks) and their lakes can be highly sensitive to variations in climate and adverse anthropogenic activities, such as overexploitation of water resources. In this review paper, we provide a brief overview of one major endorheic basin on each continent, plus a number of endorheic basins in Central Asia (CA), a region where a large proportion of the land area is within this type of basin. We summarize the effects of (changing) climate drivers and land surface–atmosphere feedbacks on the water balance. For the CA region, we also discuss key anthropogenic activities, related water management approaches and their complex relationship with political and policy issues. In CA a substantial increase in irrigated agriculture coupled with negative climate change impacts have disrupted the fragile water balance for many endorheic basins and their lakes. Transboundary integrated land and water management approaches must be developed to facilitate adequate climate change adaptation and possible mitigation of the adverse anthropogenic influence on endorheic basins in CA. Suitable climate adaptation, mitigation and efficient natural resource management technologies and methods are available, and are developing fast. A number of these are discussed in the paper, but these technologies alone are not sufficient to address pressing water resource issues in CA. Food–water–energy nexus analyses demonstrate that transboundary endorheic basin management requires transformational changes with involvement of all key stakeholders. Regional programs, supported by local governments and international donors, which incorporate advanced adaptation technologies, water resource research and management capacity development, are essential for successful climate change adaptation efforts in CA. However, there is a need for an accelerated uptake of such programs, with an emphasis on unification of approaches, as the pressures resulting from climate change and aggravated by human mismanagement of natural water resources leave very little time for hesitation.

Subsidies in Aviation

Relatively little attention has been paid to the existence of subsidies in aviation. As the sector’s importance for economic development is often highlighted, this paper seeks to provide a conceptual overview of the various forms of subsidies in aviation, as a contribution to a more holistic understanding of economic interrelationships. Based on a purposive sampling strategy, existing forms of subsidies are identified and categorized along the value chain. Focus is on industrialized countries, for which more information is available. Results indicate that significant subsidies are extended to manufacturers, infrastructure providers and airlines. These contribute to global economic growth related to aviation, but they also influence capacity in global aviation markets, strengthen the market position of individual airlines, and create conflicts between airlines and the countries they are based in. While the actual scale of subsidies cannot be determined within the scope of this paper, it provides a discussion of options to empirically assess the effects of aviation subsidies on market outcomes. Finally, general conclusions regarding the impact of subsidies on the overall sustainability of the air transport sector are drawn: These include rapidly growing capacity in the aviation system, economic vulnerabilities, and negative climate change related impacts. Results call for a better understanding of the distribution, character and implications of subsidies.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Core Ideas The CERES‐Maize model was applied to estimate the impacts of climate change under RCP scenarios and the effectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in Northeast China. Maize yield would decline under the future climatic conditions if no adaptation measures were adopted. Changing planting dates, switching to later‐maturing cultivars and breeding new cultivars could mitigate the negative impacts of climate change to varying degrees. Northeast China (NEC) is an important region for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China, and is the country's most significant commercial food base. However, NEC is also one of the areas that are most significantly affected by climate change in this country. Maize is sensitive to climatic changes, and to develop effective strategies for guaranteeing regional food security, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of the impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in NEC. In this study, the Crop‐Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)‐Maize v4.5 model, coupled with newly released data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was applied to simulate maize yields for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and to estimate the effect of CO2 fertilization and the effectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in NEC. The results indicated a trend of a continuing decline in maize yield for both RCP scenarios, and the decrease in maize yield under RCP8.5 was predicted to be greater than that under RCP4.5. The effect of CO2 fertilization was forecast to be too small to offset the negative impacts of climate change. Three adaptation measures—changing planting dates, switching to later‐maturing cultivars, and breeding new cultivars with high thermal time requirements—could mitigate negative climate change impacts to varying degrees; switching cultivars may exert the most significant effect on increasing maize yields.

Crop residue incorporation can mitigate negative climate change impacts on crop yield and improve water use efficiency in a semiarid environment

Abstract Mitigation of the deleterious impacts of climate change on agriculture is a crucial strategy for securing food resources to meet the future demand of the world with a steadily increasing population. We used a pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to explore the implementation of crop residue incorporation (RI) to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water use and crop yield for four winter crops at six sites in eastern Australia. Various residue management practices were simulated under current climate data and statistically downscaled climate data from 28 GCM simulations of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 1900–2100. The results showed that increasing future temperature shortened crop growth duration ranged from 7.4 ± 0.9 days °C−1 for barley to 3.9 ± 1.9 days °C−1 for canola. Under projected increases in the CO2 concentration and associated climate change, the overall average crop yield for 2021–2100 in eastern Australia without RI could change by −28 ± 5% for wheat, −22 ± 6% for barley, −6 ± 6% for canola and +7 ± 17% for chickpea relative to 1951–2000 yields. With RI, crop yields could be changed by +16 ± 14% for wheat, 11 ± 12% for barley and 7 ± 8% for canola and +9 ± 17% for chickpea. Further analysis showed that greater crop transpiration was the major advantage of RI. WUE in wheat and barley also increased significantly under RI due to reduced soil evaporation and surface runoff. This effect increased under future climate changes, but the effectiveness of RI varied by location. In general, the positive effects of RI on water balance and crop yield were higher at dry sites than at wet sites. Therefore, RI can be an effective adaptation option for mitigating the impacts of climate change on winter crops by improving WUE, but is more effective in narrow-leaf cropping systems in hot and dry environments.

Sustainable development planning and green construction for building resilient cities: Russian experiences within the international context

ABSTRACTWithin the international sustainable development goals agreed in 2015, strengthening of cities’ resilience is especially important, providing for urban communities’ effective preparedness, response to, recovery from as well as adaptation to hazardous impacts of multiple agents including those of environmental and climate change. Cities’ resilience rests upon natural, social, political, human, economic and built capitals, with the built capital being a critical pillar. Consuming a significant share of the final energy, buildings and structures contribute to greenhouse gases emissions, exacerbating negative climate change implications for sustainable development. At the same time, the quality of construction and city planning preconditions provided by the built capital to urban communities to protect themselves from hazardous agents’ impact. Given the above, this paper focuses on: (1) cities’ resilience as a major factor of sustainable development and (2) the existing state and development perspectives of the sustainable development planning and green construction standards and certification systems including established international systems and the respective emerging system in Russia. It is argued that green construction policy and practice in general and green certification systems and green construction standards in particular serve as key catalysts in urban areas’ transformation into resilient cities.

Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

In the coming decades, the already fragile agricultural system in West Africa will face further challenges in meeting food security, both from increasing population and from the impacts of climate change. Optimal prioritization of adaptation investments requires the assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties; successful adaptations of agriculture to climate change should not only help farmers deal with current climate risks, but also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts associated with climate change using robust climate projections. Here, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM v7.5 and SARRA-H v3.2) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing from the CMIP5 models to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options for the production of the staple crop sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench.): (i) late sowing, (ii) intensification of seeding density and fertilizer use, (iii) increasing cultivars’ thermal time requirement, (iv) water harvesting, and (v) increasing resilience to heat stress during the flowering period. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of proposed adaptation options in the historical climate and their ability to reduce the impacts of future climate change, and we also consider changes in both mean yield and inter-annual yield variability. We target the future period of 2031–2060 for the “business-as-usual” scenario (RCP8.5), and compare with the historical period of 1961–1990. Our results reveal that most proposed “adaptation options” are not more beneficial in the future than in the historical climate (−12% to +4% in mean yield), so that they do not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during the grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges (+4.5%). Intensification of fertilizer inputs can dramatically benefit yields in the historical/current climate (+50%), but does not reduce negative climate change impacts except in scenarios with substantial rainfall increases. Water harvesting contributes to a small benefit in the current climate (+1.5% to +4.0%) but has little additional benefit under climate change. Our analysis of uncertainties arising from crop model differences (conditioned on the used model versions) and various climate model projections provide insights on how to further constrain uncertainties for assessing future climate adaptation options.

Modeling the Agricultural Water–Energy–Food Nexus in the Indus River Basin, Pakistan

AbstractNexus thinking is critical to jointly address growing water, energy, and food security challenges. This paper evaluates the water, energy, and food nexus (WEFN) in the Indus River of Pakistan using the Indus Basin Model Revised—Multi Year, a hydro-agro-economic model extended with an agricultural energy use module. Impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the WEFN in the Indus Basin were modeled and then the potential of different alternative water allocation mechanisms and water infrastructure developments to address growing water, energy and food security concerns in the country were assessed. Results show growing water and energy use under hotter and wetter climate conditions. While more flexible surface water allocation policies can mitigate negative climate change impacts on agricultural water and energy use allowing for larger crop and hydropower production, such policies might also increase the inter-annual variability of resource use. Moreover, a more flexible surface water alloca...

The Links Among Contested Knowledge, Beliefs, and Learning in European Climate Governance: From Consensus to Conflict in Reforming Biofuels Policy

The close link between scientific knowledge, learning, and beliefs is particularly relevant in environmental policymaking and the interaction of environmental with economic development‐focused policies. This article contributes to a more refined understanding of the links among scientific knowledge, belief changes, and the move from a collaborative to an adversarial policy subsystem within the Advocacy Coalition Framework. It analyzes the process of drafting and negotiating the biofuels aspects of the European Renewable Energy Directive, which was dominated by political disagreements between two advocacy coalitions. Their initial agreement on increasing the share of renewable energies in transport turned into conflict after new scientific evidence emerged on the negative environmental and climate change impacts of crop‐based biofuels. The environmental coalition changed its empirical policy beliefs to reflect normative policy beliefs on environmental protection. This change in empirical policy beliefs uncovered a pre‐existing conflict with the normative policy beliefs of the economic development‐focused coalition. As a consequence, the collaborative policy subsystem shifted to an adversarial policy subsystem.

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Abstract. Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China

Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO2 concentration, a CO2 fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.