An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Macedonian Agriculture

Jordan Hristov

doi:10.3390/environments5010003

Abstract

Using a mixed input–output model, this study examines potential changes in sector output and water requirements in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the effects on the economy were quantified. The results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario due to moderate changes in precipitation and temperature and longer cropping period, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. Contrary, the medium and high climate change scenarios would negatively affect agriculture due to increase in temperature and decline in precipitation, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. As a result, water consumption by agriculture sector will increase by around 6% in the low climate change scenario, and decrease by around 8% and 16% in the medium and high climate change scenarios, respectively, relative to the current agriculture water consumption. Capital investment in irrigation equipment could mitigate the negative climate change impacts in the medium and high climate change scenarios. However, it would impose additional stresses on the existing limited water resource over time.

Highlights

Climate change has become an important issue that has potential impacts on national economies, in countries where agriculture is a key sector [1], mainly through impacts on water resource availability, as water is a key input for crop and livestock production
Two approaches were used in the analyses: a supply-driven approach, where climate change shocks on agricultural output were investigated, and a demand-driven approach, where changes in output as a result of capital investment in irrigation were investigated
The importance of disaggregating agriculture was highlighted in an United Nations report [7], which showed that Macedonian agriculture is a key water-consuming sector, with direct intensive water consumption of around 38% of total national demand, imposing significant pressure on national freshwater resources

Summary

Introduction

Climate change has become an important issue that has potential impacts on national economies, in countries where agriculture is a key sector [1], mainly through impacts on water resource availability, as water is a key input for crop and livestock production. Climate change will most likely influence not just the direct water demand by agriculture, and indirect demand by the other sectors in the economy, leading to competition for this natural resource. In the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia—FYROM (Macedonia’s constitutional name is the Republic of Macedonia). In Macedonia, the rural population represents around 43% of the total population

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Conclusion