Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Abstract

Core Ideas The CERES‐Maize model was applied to estimate the impacts of climate change under RCP scenarios and the effectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in Northeast China. Maize yield would decline under the future climatic conditions if no adaptation measures were adopted. Changing planting dates, switching to later‐maturing cultivars and breeding new cultivars could mitigate the negative impacts of climate change to varying degrees. Northeast China (NEC) is an important region for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China, and is the country's most significant commercial food base. However, NEC is also one of the areas that are most significantly affected by climate change in this country. Maize is sensitive to climatic changes, and to develop effective strategies for guaranteeing regional food security, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of the impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in NEC. In this study, the Crop‐Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)‐Maize v4.5 model, coupled with newly released data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was applied to simulate maize yields for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and to estimate the effect of CO2 fertilization and the effectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in NEC. The results indicated a trend of a continuing decline in maize yield for both RCP scenarios, and the decrease in maize yield under RCP8.5 was predicted to be greater than that under RCP4.5. The effect of CO2 fertilization was forecast to be too small to offset the negative impacts of climate change. Three adaptation measures—changing planting dates, switching to later‐maturing cultivars, and breeding new cultivars with high thermal time requirements—could mitigate negative climate change impacts to varying degrees; switching cultivars may exert the most significant effect on increasing maize yields.