Natural Population Growth Rate Research Articles

Spatial variations and social determinants of life expectancy in China, 2005–2020: A population-based spatial panel modelling study

SummaryBackgroundSocial determinants of health (SDOH) produce a broad range of life expectancy (LE) disparities. In China, limited literatures were found to report association between SDOH and LE at ecological level during a consecutive period of time from the spatial perspectives. This study aimed to determine the existence, quantify the magnitude, and interpret the association between SDOH and LE in China.MethodsProvincial-level LE were estimated from mortality records during 2005–2020 from National Mortality Surveillance System in China. A spatial panel Durbin model was used to investigate LE associated SDOH proxies. Spatial spillover effects were introduced to interpret direct and indirect effects caused by SDOH during long-term and short-term period on LE disparities.FindingsNationwide, LE increased from 73.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 71.3, 74.4) years to 77.7 (95%CI: 76.5, 78.7) years from 2005 to 2020. Unequally spatial distribution of LE with High-High clustering in coastal areas and Low-Low clustering in western regions were observed. Locally, it was estimated that SDOH proxies statistically significant related to an increase of LE, including GDP (coefficient: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.00, 0.03), Gini index (coefficient: 2.35, 95%CI: 1.82, 2.88), number of beds in health care institutions (coefficient: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.00, 0.05) and natural growth rate of resident population (coefficient: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.01, 0.02). Direct and indirect effects decomposition during long-term and short-term of LE associated SDOH proxies demonstrated that GDP, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, education attainment, Gini index, number of beds in health care institutions, sex ratio, gross dependence ratio and natural growth rate of resident population not only affected local LE, but also exerted spatial spillover effects towards geographical neighbors.InterpretationSpatial variations of LE existed at provincial-level in China. SDOH regarding socioeconomic development and equity, healthcare resources, as well as population characteristics not only affected LE disparities at local scale but also among nearby provinces. Externalities of policy of those SDOH proxies should be took into consideration to promote health equity nationally. Comprehensive approaches on the basis of population strategy should be consolidated to optimize supportive socioeconomic environment and narrow the regional gap to reduce health disparities and increase LE.FundingNational Key Research & Development Program of China (Grant No.2018YFC1315301); Ministry of Education of China Humanities and Social Science General Program (Grant No.18YJC790138).

Assessment and key factors of urban liveability in underdeveloped regions: A case study of the Loess Plateau, China

Urban liveability is an important index to measure the sustainable development of urban socioeconomic. Based on the deconstruction of urban sustainable development goals (SDGs), a new-comprehensive and scientific evaluation index system was constructed to evaluate the urban liveability of underdeveloped regions, entropy weight TOPSIS model and Tobit model were used to investigate the urban liveability and key factors in underdeveloped regions. The evaluation index system was divided into seven aspects in this study, involving economic development, urban construction, public service, social progress, living standard, ecological environment, and resource utilization. To explore the key factors of urban liveability and the application of the index system in underdeveloped regions, the Loess Plateau was chosen for this investigation. The empirical results indicates that there are six significant key factors affecting urban liveability in the Loess Plateau. Among them, urbanization rate, natural population growth rate, and population density play a negative role in urban liveability. For another, per capita local fiscal revenue, per capita green area, and GDP growth rate play a positive role in urban liveability. The index system can evaluate the urban liveability scientifically of underdeveloped regions, it can be used for Livable city construction for other underdeveloped regions or developing countries.

Demography and perturbation analyses of the coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei (Coleoptera: Curculionidae): Implications for management.

The coffee berry borer (CBB) Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari is the most serious pest of coffee worldwide. Management of the CBB is extremely difficult because its entire life cycle occurs inside the fruit, where it is well protected. Knowing which life stages contribute most to population growth, would shed light on the population dynamics of this pest and help to improve CBB management programs. Two staged-classified matrices were constructed for CBB populations reared in the lab on artificial diets and CBB populations from artificial infestations in the field. Matrices were used to determine demographic parameters, to conduct elasticity analyses, and to perform prospective perturbation analysis. Higher values of the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm) and population growth rate (λ): were observed for CBB populations growing in the lab than in the field (rm: 0.058, λ: 1.74 lab; rm: 0.053, λ: 1.32 field). Sensitivity values for both CBB populations were highest for the transitions from larva to pupa (G2: 0.316 lab, 0.352 field), transition from pupa to juvenile (G3: 0.345 lab, 0.515 field) and survival of adult females (P5: 0.324 lab, 0.389 field); these three vital rates can be important targets for CBB management. Prospective perturbation analyses indicated that an effective management for the CBB should consider multiple developmental stages; perturbations of >90% for each transition are necessary to reduce λ to <1. However, when the three vital rates with highest sensitivity are impacted at the same time, the percentage of perturbation is reduced to 25% for each transition; with these reductions in survival of larvae, pupae and adult females the value of λ was reduced from 1.32 to 0.96. Management programs for CBB should be focused on the use of biological and cultural measures that are known to affect these three important targets.

The influence of socio-demographic factors on the reproduction of human capital in rural areas

The article is devoted to topical issues of the impact of socio-economic conditions on the reproduction of human capital in rural areas. The analysis of the main indicators describing the demographic situation, namely: the birth rate and mortality rate, natural growth rate, employment rate and unemployment of the rural population. The main manifestations that characterize the current demographic problems of rural development, in particular the negative trend in mortality, which significantly exceeds the birth rate, reducing the number of women of childbearing age, reducing the number of households with children, the excess of dead women compared to men The emergence of a number of rural settlements that are on the verge of extinction or have prospects for extinction It contains the results of the analysis, which indicate the need to develop a plan for the development of preschool and school facilities, providing health care facilities with pediatricians located in rural areas. The research made it possible to identify a tendency to increase the costs of rural households with the advent of further child care, as well as to identify a number of circumstances that affect the costs of its development. It is substantiated that the social policy of the state and the actions of the Government of Ukraine should be focused on solving the issues of poverty, which envisages measures for the social protection of families in which children are born. On the basis of statistical data the infrastructural providing of process of reproduction of human capital of rural territories of the country is considered. It was revealed that an important obstacle to the prospects for the development of rural settlements is their inadequate provision of preschool and school educational institutions. Brought, that the policy of optimizing the network of medical and educational institutions in rural areas, low rates of development of social and engineering infrastructure of rural areas have a negative impact on their attractiveness. Key words: rural areas, development, rural population, socio-economic factors, demographic situation.

Assessing the degree of soil erosion in karst mountainous areas by extenics

The ecological environment of karst mountainous areas is fragile, and soil erosion has become an important factor restricting the social and economic development of these regions. How can the degree of soil erosion be scientifically assessed with a reasonable evaluation method? What is effect of the ecological environmental control measures? This study used extenics to assess the degree of soil erosion in karst mountainous areas. The typical karst mountainous area of Guizhou Province was used as the research object. In this study, a soil erosion monitoring indicator system for karst mountainous areas was developed, an evaluation model based on extenics was established, and an index correlation function and comprehensive correlation function were designed to assess the soil erosion of the karst mountainous areas. The key results were as follows. In the soil erosion monitoring index system, the soil nutrient indexes, soil erosion modulus, rock exposure, diversity index, flood season rainfall, population density and natural population growth rate had significant effects on soil erosion in the karst mountainous area. Additionally, we determined the grading standards for soil erosion intensity in typical karst mountains. Finally, the evaluation model was applied to a case study. The status of water and soil conservation was as follows: XW > ML > SB > ZS. These results provide new insights into the evaluation method, namely, extenics, which is helpful for conveniently, quickly and scientifically assessing soil erosion.

Evaluation of ecological environmental quality and factor explanatory power analysis in western Chongqing, China

With accelerating economic growth, expanding demand, and increasing development intensity, the quality of the eco-environment has been decreasing. The western Chongqing area plays an important role in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. There are many high-intensity development activities in this area, which lead to an increasingly prominent contradiction between humans and the environment. Thus, this paper first evaluates the eco-environment of western Chongqing by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), coefficient of variation, matter element model, and geographic information system (GIS) using remote sensing image data and other reference data of this area. The powerful spatial analysis function of GIS and the comprehensive evaluation of multiple factors with multiple models have been fully used to improve the reliability of the evaluation results. Furthermore, the geographic detector model has been applied to detect the influence of various indicators on eco-environmental quality. The results show the eco-environmental quality of the counties in western Chongqing and the explanatory power of each indicator. Jiangjin District and Yongchuan District have the best eco-environmental qualities, while Tongnan District and Bishan have low qualities. Overall, the eco-environmental quality of this area is better in rural areas than in cities, better in the south than in the north, and better in places with high elevation than in places with low elevation. The main indicators influencing the eco-environmental quality in the study area are as follows: emissions of PM10(0.9472), population density (0.8802), proportion of professional teachers in primary and secondary schools (0.8773), per capita disposable income of all residents (0.8349), and natural population growth rate (0.8180). Eco-environmental quality is obviously affected by multiple indicators, and the influence of any two indicators is greater than that of a single indicator. Among the 171 interaction results, 58 (34%) are nonlinear enhancements and 113 (66%) are bifactor enhancements. The results indicate that a comprehensive multifactor measure based on the intensity of the interaction between indicators is an effective method for evaluating eco-environmental quality and may provide a useful reference to planners involved in eco-environmental protection and economic construction.

Predicting the Population Growth and Structure of China Based on Grey Fractional-Order Models

Scientific prediction and accurate grasp of the future trend of population change are conducive to the formulation of different population policies at different stages, so as to alleviate the adverse effects of the aging population on society and provide scientific theoretical reference for controlling the population size and making policy. Considering that the population system is affected by many complex factors and the structural relationship among these factors is complex, it can be regarded as a typical dynamic grey system. In this paper, the fractional-order GM (1, 1) model and the fractional-order Verhulst model are established, respectively, based on the statistical data of China's population indices from 2015 to 2019 to forecast the population size and the change trend of population structure of China from 2015 to 2050 in the short-term and medium- to long-term. The forecast results show that China’s population will grow in an inverse S shape from 2015 to 2050, when the total population will reach 1.43 billion. Moreover, during this period, the birth rate and natural growth rate of population will decrease year by year, and the proportion of aging population and the dependency ratio of population will increase year by year. Besides, the problem of aging population is going to become increasingly serious. The application of grey system method to population prediction can mine the complex information contained in the population number series. Meanwhile, the fractional-order accumulation can weaken the randomness of the original data series and reduce the influence of external disturbance factors, so it is a simple and effective population prediction method.

The exposure-response association between humidex and bacillary dysentery: A two-stage time series analysis of 316 cities in mainland China

BackgroundMany studies have reported the interactive effects between relative humidity and temperature on infectious diseases. However, evidence regarding the combined effects of relative humidity and temperature on bacillary dysentery (BD) is limited, especially for large-scale studies. To address this research need, humidex was utilized as a comprehensive index of relative humidity and temperature. We aimed to estimate the effect of humidex on BD across mainland China, evaluate its heterogeneity, and identify potential effect modifiers. MethodsDaily meteorological and BD surveillance data from 2014 to 2016 were obtained for 316 prefecture-level cities in mainland China. Humidex was calculated on the basis of relative humidity and temperature. A multicity, two-stage time series analysis was then performed. In the first stage, a common distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was established to obtain city-specific estimates. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to pool these estimates, assess the significance of heterogeneity, and explore potential effect modifiers. ResultsThe pooled cumulative estimates showed that humidex could promote the transmission of BD. The exposure-response relationship was nearly linear, with a maximum cumulative relative risk (RR) of 1.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29–1.63] at a humidex value of 40.94. High humidex had an acute adverse effect on BD. The humidex-BD relationship could be modified by latitude, urbanization rate, the natural growth rate of population, and the number of primary school students per thousand persons. ConclusionsHigh humidex could increase the risk of BD incidence. Thus, it is suitable to incorporate humidex as a predictor into the early warning system of BD and to inform the general public in advance to be cautious when humidex is high. This is especially true for regions with higher latitude, higher urbanization rates, lower natural growth rates of population, and lower numbers of primary school students per thousand persons.

Population movement in the Republic of Bashkortostan: a multi-factor analysis on panel data

Introduction. The study deals with natural movement of the population in the Republic of Bashkortostan at the regional and municipal levels. The aim of the study is to assess the factors affecting the natural movement of the population of the Republic of Bashkortostan (RB). Material and methods. The information base was the official statistical materials of the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Bashkortostan: collections “Demographic Processes in the Republic of Bashkortostan”, “Socio-Economic Situation of Municipal Areas and Urban Districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan”; Rosstat data: collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indices”. We considered data consisting of observations on rural municipalities in RB 54 municipal districts and 21 cities (urban communities and urban settleme;ts), tracked in dynamics for 16 years (2002-2017). At the first stage, municipalities were divided into five groups using cluster analysis based on natural growth indices. Then, to study the influence of medico-demographic, socio-infrastructural, socio-economic factors on the indices of the population’s natural movement, multivariate regression analysis was used. Due to the panel nature of the data, models with fixed individual and time effects were used. Results. In the studied groups of municipalities, formed using cluster analysis, the significance of individual factors in terms of their influence on the performance indicator is significantly different, which necessitates taking this spatial heterogeneity into account when developing socio-economic policy measures. To confirm the existence of a relationship between the rate of natural population growth and per capita money income, the general rate of marriages, divorces, the proportion of women of fertile age, unemployment, and the ratio of the population over working age, we based the constructed regression models with fixed effects on panel data Conclusion. Analysis of the results obtained and comparing them with the literature data allow us to determine the priorities of socio-economic, demographic policy at the regional level.

Spatiotemporal Coupling Coordination Analysis of Social Economy and Resource Environment of Central Cities in the Yellow River Basin

With the rapid economic and social development and accelerated urbanization, the negative ecological impact of major river basins worldwide has been deepening, which is gradually threatening the sustainable development of cities. This study establishes the model of the coupling coordination relationship between social economy and resources environment of nine central cities in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the evaluation index system of social economy and resource environment, we quantitatively measure the coupling coordination degree and spatiotemporal pattern of the nine central cities from 2010 to 2017. The obstacle factors of coupling coordination were then diagnosed based on the obstacle degree model. The results showed that (1) the social economy and resources environment development indices of the nine central cities in the Yellow River Basin, as well as the coupling coordination of each central city, showed an overall upward trend from 2010 to 2017. (2) Most of the central cities in the Yellow River Basin were in the coordinated coupling stage, among which Xining and Lanzhou have the highest coupling degree. (3) The obstacle factors affecting the harmonious development coupling coordination of the nine central cities were natural growth rate of population, proportion of tertiary industry in GDP and per capita investment in fixed assets in social economy system, and per capita green area of parks, per capita total amount of water resources, and per capita industrial SO2 emissions in resources environment system. It is necessary to adopt different strategies for different cities to promote the coupling coordination development of urban social economy and resources environment in the Yellow River Basin.

林业资源型城市生态-经济-社会协调发展的定量测度——以黑龙江省伊春市为例

把握城市独特的生态-经济-社会系统协调优化特性是实现林业资源型城市可持续发展的重要前提。研究从生态、经济、社会3个维度构建了林业资源型城市复合系统的测度评价指标体系，应用熵值法、耦合协调度模型，采用2005-2018年时段生态、经济、社会数据，对伊春协调发展状况进行实证测度评价，运用障碍度模型分析影响系统协调发展的主要因素，采用GM （1，1）灰色预测模型进行发展预测。结果表明：（1）综合发展指数呈上升态势，促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动能历经了从生态到经济，再到生态为主要动力的发展过程，三个子系统发展水平呈趋同态势，推动三维系统的均衡协同是未来发展的重要方向；（2）三维系统耦合度稳定在较高水平，系统间相互依赖、相互作用程度较高，协调度呈波动上升，实现了由勉强协调、经济滞后发展向良好协调、同步发展的转变，协调状态趋向良好；（3）三维系统中社会子系统对协调发展的障碍度最大；人口自然增长率、建成区绿化覆盖率、GDP增长率、第三产业就业人数比重4个指标是制约近期协调发展的主要障碍因子；（4）2019-2030年，生态、经济、社会子系统发展指数及协调度的预测值均呈上升态势，生态-经济-社会复合系统将向更高级的协调发展状态演进，经济发展将再次成为促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动力；加强生态建设，引领生态创新，大力发展生态经济，提高社会发展水平，着力降低障碍因子对协调发展的阻力作用，实现生态-经济-社会的联动健康发展是伊春未来重要的努力方向。;Understanding the city's unique ecological-economic-social system coordination and optimization characteristics is an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable development of forestry resource-based cities. This study constructed a measurement and evaluation index system of the forestry resource-based city composite system from three dimensions of ecology, economy and society. Entropy method and coupling coordination degree model were used to evaluate the coordinated development of Yichun City by using the ecological, economic, and social data from 2005 to 2018. The obstacle degree model was used to analyze the main factors that affected the coordinated development and the GM (1,1) gray forecast model was used for development prediction. The results show that:(1) the comprehensive development index is on the rise. The main driving force to promote the comprehensive development of ecology, economy and society has gone through the development process from ecology to economy, and then ecology as the main driving force. On the whole, the development momentum is increasingly converging. Promoting the balanced coordination of the three-dimensional system is an important direction for future development. (2) The coupling degree of the three-dimensional system is stable at a relatively high level. The interdependence and interaction between the subsystems are relatively high and the degree of coordination fluctuates, which realizes the transformation from barely coordinated and backward economic development to good coordinated and synchronous development. The state of coordination tends to be good; (3) The social subsystem in the three-dimensional system has the greatest obstacle to the coordinated development. Four indicators, including the natural population growth rate, the green coverage rate of the built-up area, the GDP growth rate, and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry, are the main obstacle factors restricting the near-term coordinated development; (4) From 2019 to 2030, the development index of ecological, economic, and social subsystem and the predicted value of coordination are all on the rise, which means the ecological-economic-social comprehensive system would evolve to a better state of coordination development, among which the economic subsystem will once again be the main driving force to push the ecological-economic-social comprehensive development of the city. It is suggested that Yichun should put its emphasis on strengthening the ecological construction, guiding ecological innovation, striving to developing ecological economy, improving the level of social development, making efforts to reduce the resistance of obstacle factors to coordinated development, and realizing the linkage and healthy development of the three, which is an important direction for the future development of Yichun.

Антропогенные нагрузки в Горно-Ширванском экономико-географическом регионе Азербайджана, их оценка и моделирование

The study assessed the impact of the environmental situation on development of demographic process, and analyzed the dependence of birthrate, death rate, rate of natural population growth and infant mortality on the ecological situation for Mountain Shirvan economic and geographical region of Azerbaijan by using economic-mathematical modeling methods.

Simulation of Population Growth and Distribution based on Centrality of Road Network

This study presents a method to model population growth of spatial units by incorporating measures of road network centrality instead of conventional statistical models of population growth. The proposed model enables the estimation of population growth based on the changes in the urban form represent by the changes in the road network and their centralities. The model has been calibrated and validated for the city of Colombo, Sri Lanka. The proposed model for simulating population growth rate by utilizing Closeness Centrality values and the rate of natural population growth as endogenous variables recorded an accepted level of predictability (R2= 0.87 and MdAPE &lt; 10%). The method demonstrated in this research is an effective tool for understanding and directing the efficient allocation of intelligent road network infrastructure, urban planning and population modeling.

Determinants of immigrants' concentration at local level in Spain: Why size and position still matter

AbstractIn the 2000s, and with natural population growth rates close to zero, Spain experienced an inflow of almost 5 million immigrants. These new Spanish residents did not tend to locate evenly across the territory and contributed to putting pressure on the already large spatial population imbalances between cities and rural areas, between the coast and the interior and between the central and peripheral areas. Covering the whole Spanish territory and using the 804 Spanish local labour markets as units of analysis, the objective of this paper is to analyse the local determinants of the attractiveness of a place for immigrants. The estimation of geographically weighted regressions (GWR) shows the necessity of including spatial heterogeneity in the analysis, as the effect of the traditional factors explaining immigrant concentration processes—such as job‐related characteristics or the networks established by previous immigrants—exert different and even contrary effects across the Spanish territory. Although global estimations would reject the significance of agglomeration economies or the relative location of a place, the adoption of the GWR approach shows that these regional economic factors are key to understanding the geographical concentration of immigrants in Spain but show different—even contrary—responses across space. Spatial heterogeneity supports the idea that any national/regional policy to enhance (or contain) immigrant concentration should be designed a la carte and be implemented at the local level.

Prevalence and Possible Causes of Infertility in the Perm Region

The aimof investigation was to assess the characteristics of the epidemic process of the incidence and prevalence of infertility and gonococcal infection, taking into account the demographic situation in Perm region.Materials and methods.The official statistics of the Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Perm Region for 2003–2017 were analyzed (form 2), the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Perm Region. The long-term dynamics of general morbidity, distribution of the patients by age, sex, social status, morbidity in combination with HIV infection, the detection of gonococcal infection by various specialists and methods of laboratory diagnostics were studied using the method of retrospective epidemiological analysis. Statistical processing was carried out using the program Statistica 7.0. To determine the relationship between the individual parameters, a simple correlation analysis was used with the calculation of the conjugacy coefficient of the Pearson traits (r).Results.In the Perm region, despite the positive rate of natural population growth, the number of inhabitants in 2010-2016 decreased by 14.5 thousand people. Every year the number of women in adolescent and youthful age falls. It has been shown that the leading factor in the formation of infertility is inflammatory diseases of the reproductive organs and the presence of comorbid pathology. It was established leading value in the pathogenesis of infertility of gonococcal infection. The features of the epidemic process of gonorrhea in the Perm region was shown.Conclusion.In a large number of cases, the complication of the demographic situation in the province is associated with infection of the genital tract. It is necessary to use more widely the possibilities of microbiological diagnostics.

Spatial-Temporal Variance of Coupling Relationship between Population Modernization and Eco-Environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Steady population growth promotes economic and societal progress, and the symbiotic coordination between the ecological environment and the local population is the necessary requirement for realizing sustainability. We used population modernization and ecological environment data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2005 to 2016 to construct two index systems. We used the variation coefficient method, the coupling degree model, and a geographical detector to analyze the coordination degree of population modernization and the ecological environment. The results showed that: (1) From 2005 to 2016, the coupling degree was stable at a high level, the degree of coordination increased, and the growth rate decreased; (2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the types of good harmony and high harmony were located in the middle, eastern, and western regions. The adjacent disorder and moderate disorder regions were distributed in the north and south sides; (3) Through influence detection, we found the main factors that influenced the spatial distribution of coordination degree were the natural population growth rate, health technicians/10,000 people, etc. These factors had some characteristics of space-time heterogeneity. Such results can contribute to the understanding of characteristics of population-environment development in different regions, promoting sustainable development of regional environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.

Selection of an Effective Trajectory of Regional Socio-Economic Development

Currently, the socio-economic crisis and tension in external economic environment significantly complicate the task of strategic planning of regional socio-economic development. However, this task is crucially relevant. Its solution requires a multiaspect assessment of regional socio-economic situation. This assessment should take into account the impact of numerous factors, possible “traps†. We propose to use a composite indicator “Index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area†to assess the socio-economic situation in a region. Using the method of correlation analysis, we selected 6 key indicators: natural population growth rate, mortgage arrears, total unemployment, percentage of the population with incomes below the subsistence level, ratio of budget spending on education to the gross regional product (GRP), ratio of budget spending on healthcare to the gross regional product (GRP). The value domain of each indicator is divided on 7 crisis zones. This allows assessing the socio-economic system situation. We have substantiated the behaviour of regional socio-economic system on the example of the Ural Federal District in the period from 2000 to 2017. Furthermore, we have made projections for the period from 2018 to 2021. The dynamics of four indicators from six demonstrates reveals a post-crisis recovery. However, the direct impact on two budgetary indicators can increase the general welfare in a region. Comparing the dynamics of the index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area with GRP shows that we can use the index of the welfare of an individual and inhabited area to forecast the dynamics GRP. The research results can be applied for developing measures to enhance the socio-economic development of regions.

Studying the efficiency of soil decontamination when using a device with the biosorbent “econadin

We have investigated the efficiency of soil decontamination from petroleum products using the patented perforated device of cylindrical shape with a diameter of 0.04 m, with an area of openings of 0.04 m 2 , with the biosorbent “Econadin”. the process of soil decontamination lasted over a period of 35 days. Petrol of grade A92 was used as a model pollutant. The present study was conducted in order to improve the process of purification from petroleum products by transporting the biosorbent into deep layers of soil. The result of the study is the established dependence of the concentration of a pollutant (C) in soil on a distance (R) to the device: N=–0.00009134R2–0.001017858R+0.07274845. The dependence, established to control the process of purification, makes it possible to compile methodological recommendations on the use of the proposed device. Based on the Malthus model, combined with a diffusion process, we acquired the data that explain the mechanism of neutralization of gasoline with bacteria located in the examined device. Under the assigned conditions, purification is enabled through the migration of bacteria into soil with a diffusion coefficient D=0.08801 cm 2 /day and a constant of the natural population growth rate r=0.165168. The obtained results are useful and important to control the process of purification and to devise methodical recommendations on the use of the proposed design. A given approach makes it possible to calculate the neutralization of gasoline at a change in the boundary conditions, for example, a radius of the cylinder of a specialized device with a biosorbent, the limit of distance form it, and the duration of effective utilization of the device. For other soils and pollutants, a combined method has been proposed, including the Malthus method, based on the description of a diffusion process; it could also be applied upon determining the parameters r, D and C 0 experimentally

Research on Coal Demand Problem Based on System Dynamics

Coal is the main energy resource in China. Predicting the dynamic trend of coal demand accurately plays an important role in energy consumption. Four scenarios that include weak industrialization scenario, strong service scenario, weak industrialization scenario, and strong service scenario that are based on the progress of science and technology, have been set to regulate five key factors, consisting of natural population growth rate, GDP growth rate, industrial proportion, tertiary industry proportion, and proportion of investment in science and technology. Based on system dynamics method and Vensim-PLE software, the system dynamics model of coal demand forecasting is built to simulate the total coal demand during 2011–2016 and forecast the total coal demand from 2017 to 2030. The constructed model can better predict the future coal demand through the test. In terms of total amount of coal demand, China’s coal demand has a trend of decreasing, which is lower than the 2016 level setting. The total coal demand of scenario 2 is higher than the rest of the scenarios and the total coal demand of scenario 4 is the smallest. Coal demand slows down under strong service sector, and inversely weak industrialization scenario, which is based on the progress of science and technology, can better control the total coal demand.

Family Miniaturization and Its Influencing Factors in Urban China

Urban families in mainland China trend compressed and diversified in transitional period. With the development of economy, urbanization, and cultural diversification, the graying of Chinese society, is markedly increasing, during the transitional period. Using box plot to show the change of Chinese family. The results show that: (a) the family structure change reflected that family with high population size and high intergenerational level turn to family with small population size and simple intergenerational level, with time, (b) Social security and employment, urbanization level, the proportion of the third industry, gross regional production (GDP), natural population growth rate, and minimum life security are notable factors of family miniaturization. The research on the temporal and spatial variation and influencing factors of urban families’ structure in mainland China is meaningful to well-being of urban residents, and sustainable development of the community.