Research on Coal Demand Problem Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Coal is the main energy resource in China. Predicting the dynamic trend of coal demand accurately plays an important role in energy consumption. Four scenarios that include weak industrialization scenario, strong service scenario, weak industrialization scenario, and strong service scenario that are based on the progress of science and technology, have been set to regulate five key factors, consisting of natural population growth rate, GDP growth rate, industrial proportion, tertiary industry proportion, and proportion of investment in science and technology. Based on system dynamics method and Vensim-PLE software, the system dynamics model of coal demand forecasting is built to simulate the total coal demand during 2011–2016 and forecast the total coal demand from 2017 to 2030. The constructed model can better predict the future coal demand through the test. In terms of total amount of coal demand, China’s coal demand has a trend of decreasing, which is lower than the 2016 level setting. The total coal demand of scenario 2 is higher than the rest of the scenarios and the total coal demand of scenario 4 is the smallest. Coal demand slows down under strong service sector, and inversely weak industrialization scenario, which is based on the progress of science and technology, can better control the total coal demand.