Research on coal demand forecast and carbon emission reduction in Shanxi Province under the vision of carbon peak

Abstract

Facing the increasingly severe climate situation, China strives to improve its Nationally Determined Contributions, promising to reach its carbon peak by 2030. Accurately predicting the future demand quantity and changing the trends of coal resources is the key to maintaining national energy security and achieving the goal of “carbon peak” and is also an important research topic in the future. To improve the prediction accuracy, this study sorts out eight common factors affecting the coal demand from the aspects of the economy, population, and energy. The grey relational analysis method was used to describe the degree of importance of each factor and screen out the relatively vital factors. The system dynamics model for coal demand in Shanxi Province was also established. The coal demand and carbon emission trends in Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2030 were predicted under business-as-usual, low-speed and high-speed development scenarios. The study results show that: 1) During the 14th Five-Year Plan to 15th Five-year Plan, the trend of coal demand has changed from increasing to decreasing. Under the three scenarios, the coal demand in 2021 is expected to be 372.03 million tons, 365.97 million tons, 360.04 million tons, and it is expected that the coal demand will peak in 2025, and will reach 394.77 million tons, 390.27 million tons, and 385.66 million tons under the three scenarios, respectively. 2) With the development of population and economy, the total energy demand shows a continuously increasing trend. It is estimated that the total energy consumption will reach 237.46-242.93 million tons of standard coal in 2030, and the total energy demand will continue to grow in the foreseeable future. 3) The carbon dioxide emission is closely related to the coal demand, showing a similar variation trend. Under the business-as-usual development scenario, carbon emissions in 2021 are 699.62 million tons, and carbon emissions are expected to reach 681.12 million tons in 2030. The low-speed development and high-speed development scenarios have different degrees of energy saving and emission reduction benefits. Compared with the business-as-usual development scenario in 2030, the carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 1.64 million tons and 3.56 million tons respectively. Finally, we put forward important policy measures to promote the economic transformation and upgrading of Shanxi Province and accelerate the realization of the “carbon peak” goal.