Natural Gas Imports Research Articles

Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Model Based on LASSO and Polynomial Models and Its Application: A Case Study of China

China aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality goals. Natural gas, as a high-quality fossil fuel energy, is an important transition resource for China in the process of carbon reduction, so it is necessary to predict China’s natural gas demand. In this paper, a novel natural gas demand combination forecasting model is constructed to accurately predict the future natural gas demand. The Lasso model and the polynomial model are used to build a combinatorial model, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional models, which have low data dimensions and poor prediction abilities. In the modeling process, the cross-validation method is used to adjust the modeling parameters. By comparing the performance of the combinatorial forecasting model, the single forecasting model and other commonly used forecasting models, the results show that the error (2.99%) of the combinatorial forecasting model is the smallest, which verifies the high accuracy and good stability advantages of the combinatorial forecasting model. Finally, the paper analyzes the relevant data from 1999 to 2022 and predicts China’s natural gas demand in the next 10 years. The results show that the annual growth rate of China’s natural gas demand in the next 10 years will reach 13.33%, at 8.3 × 1011 m3 in 2033, which proves that China urgently needs to rapidly develop the gas supply capacity of gas supply enterprises. This study integrates the impact of multiple factors on the natural gas demand, predicts China’s natural gas demand from 2023 to 2033, and provides decision-making support for China’s energy structure adjustment and natural gas import trade.

Lessons from the energy crisis of an energy exporter

The Eastern Australian gas crisis of Winter 2022 was particularly perverse in that it briefly saw wholesale prices exceed those for spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into North Asia and twice triggered the Gas Supply Guarantee Mechanism. This paper provides an analysis of the drivers behind this crisis that reveals how grids such as the National Electricity Market (NEM), during a renewables build-up coupled with a coal phase-down with ageing coal-fired capacity, will continue to be vulnerable to seasonal shocks and wide intra-day spreads in the medium term. We also highlight how the role of gas in enabling further uptake for renewables is not to be taken for granted, drawing on lessons from intermittency in other regions, and that only through rapid decarbonisation of the electricity sector can we begin electrification of direct use sectors. Within the Eastern Australian context, this calls for more flexible gas supply and investments to mitigate transportation bottlenecks as the regions’ centre of supply shifts towards Queensland in the years ahead. We conclude that in the absence of a game-changing development in the sector, such as clear policy to support significant new developments in domestic production, we expect structurally higher domestic prices and seasonal domestic shortages that will create an overhang on LNG exporters, complicating their already uneasy relationship with the domestic market.

The Hydrogen Wind Turbine: Design of a wind turbine optimised for hydrogen production

“Green” hydrogen produced using electrolysis and zero-carbon electricity may be a path for the EU to reduce its dependence on natural gas imports and support the green transition. The EU uses 10 Mt of natural gas yearly for hydrogen production, representing a potential 120 GW market for the wind industry. Placing the hydrogen production (electrolysers) near the energy source (wind turbines) instead of the consumer (e.g. fertiliser producers) changes the energy transportation from power to hydrogen and opens new design possibilities. This work investigates how an off-grid wind turbine designed for hydrogen production may differ from a traditional one.The paper first describes the numerical modelling framework used to estimate the hydrogen production and cost of a “hydrogen wind turbine.” The main parameters of the system (generator rating, rotor diameter, electrolyser rating and battery capacity) are then optimised to reduce the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Results show that an LCOH-optimised wind turbine should have a lower specific power (i.e. a larger rotor) than an LCOE-optimised design. We find a 7% LCOH reduction compared to the reference system, opening the door for future wind turbines designed directly for hydrogen production.

Gas market integration in South America: The role of Argentine gas to reduce the regional exposure to liquefied natural gas imports

After spending several years as net importer of natural gas, the development of unconventional gas reserves in Argentina can revert this scenario and change the dynamics of the Southern Cone regional gas integration. To assess the role of Argentine gas, this study utilised the TIMES-ConoSur optimisation model, which represents the regional integration of the gas and electricity systems. To improve the level of detail of the results, updates and modifications in different settings were made in the first version of the model. In addition, four scenarios were tested with two levels of LNG (liquefied natural gas) prices and including or not the interconnection between Argentina gas network and Brazil integrated network. The role of the Argentine gas was analysed based on its production potential and the export potential to the neighbour countries. Findings indicated that the development of the Argentine gas reserves can be a game changer, as it can affect directly the regional dynamics and the gas supply of the neighbour countries. The main future dynamics of the other countries in the region were also assessed, such as the role of Bolivian gas, the challenges to develop pre-salt gas and how will be the future of LNG in the region.

International competition for oil and natural gas and its impact on international relations

Energy sources, oil and natural gas, are of great importance in international competition and its impact on international relations, as well as the importance of oil and natural gas in preserving the position of countries in hegemony and the global economy, as well as the level of economic development. This is what calls the major economic powers to pay attention to this type of energy sources and try to obtain more of them, whether through bilateral economic agreements and interest in the investment process or through wars

Comparative Review of Energy, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas for Exchange Markets in Nigeria, India and Bangladesh

In 2021, there was a global energy crisis that affected different parts of the world. In most countries, energy heavily relies on natural gas, including Nigeria, India, and Bangladesh. Several studies have explored the differences in the energy of crude oil and natural gas. Nonetheless, little effort has been made toward exploring the exportation of energy for exchange markets in Nigeria, India, and Bangladesh. This paper primarily aims at comparatively exploring the energy of crude oil and natural gas for exchange markets in the aforementioned countries. The methodology used in this paper is qualitative content analysis (QCA) and a systematical literature review (SLR) which includes various sources such as journals, the core collection of the Web of Science (WOS), oil peer review resources, and library sources. The study systematically mapped out different bibliographic materials whereby the visualization of similarities (VOS) was used to explore exchange markets for energy, crude oil, and gas in Nigeria, India, and Bangladesh. The results of the analysis indicated that, in Africa, Nigeria is regarded as the largest producer of natural gas and crude oil, with an approximation of 1.2 million barrels per day. Concerning oil and gas reserves, the country is considered the 10th and 8th largest producer in the world, having 37 billion barrels and roughly 206 trillion cubic feet, respectively. Thus, the exportation of energy is considered a central pillar of the country’s economy. In addition, India is regarded as the second largest producer of crude oil with 4.972 million barrels per day, which is approximately 5.1% of the entire world’s capacity for refining crude oil. Similarly, at the global level, India is considered the topmost consumer of crude oil, accounting for 4.8% of the world’s consumption. In the context of Bangladesh, their gas reserves account for 39.4 trillion cubic feet, and they are considered to be 70% of the commercial energy supply in the country. In conclusion, the importance of energy, crude oil, and natural gas cannot be underestimated, specifically, for the exchange import markets in the current context of the aforementioned countries. It is, therefore, suggested that the governments of Nigeria, India, and Bangladesh should strengthen their national policies on energy in order to be responsive to the global energy crisis as well as boost the exchange market in the energy sector.

Sanctions and the Russian Federation's Economy: A Systematic Literature Review and Analysis of Global Energy Sector

The current paper examines how sanctions implemented by a number of countries, particularly the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and the United Kingdom (UK), have affected the Russian Federation's economic and global energy sectors. The data demonstrates how the sanctions have impacted Russian Federation's economy and global energy sector. Because of the steep rise in oil, natural gas, and food costs, Russian Federation special military operation to Ukraine is steadily raising inflation, which has wrecked most worldwide economies. Due to political dangers, this situation is anticipated to outcome in greater global economic uncertainty, unpredictably high stock prices, supply chain disruptions, expensive bills, and a drop in investment. As a result, if Russian Federation responds by banning exports of critical global commodities, such as oil, natural gas, wheat, minerals (such as neon, titanium, palladium, and ammonium nitrate) for clean energy, it will be critical for the forecasts to intensify and many countries to seek ways to live economically. In this context, the study will attempt to highlight the importance of oil, natural gas, and other significant minerals for both Russian Federation and the global economy, as well as the effects of sanctions within the global energy sector.

Rethinking Resource Efficiency: Europe’s Transition to a Circular Economy

Abstract The war in Ukraine has brought the challenges stemming from Europe’s dependency on natural gas and oil imports into sharp focus. This has also highlighted another dependency – that on raw materials that are critical for the EU’s transition to a low-carbon economy. A strategic approach to raw material management can help negate the risks posed by a dependency on imports of critical raw materials. Improving resource efficiency is also necessary to achieve a low-carbon economy and sustain socio-economic progress in the face of finite natural resources. This Forum highlights the progress currently being made in geopolitical, economic and environmental areas and looks at the main constraints to the circular economy agenda where targeted solutions are needed. What is currently being done to decouple material consumption from welfare creation and use resources more efficiently? To what extent can recycling prolong the use of natural resources? Which measures can transform current business models into circular business models? How can technology and digitalisation be used to improve resource efficiency while minimising environmental burdens? Can knowledge transfer be used in addressing the complexity of the transition to a circular economy?

ВИРОБНИЦТВО БІОМЕТАНУ З АГРОБІОМАСИ В УКРАЇНІ: ПРОБЛЕМИ ТА ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ

У статті досліджено основні проблеми та перспективи виробництва біометану з агробіомаси в Україні. Проаналізовано географічну структуру та обсяги імпорту природного газу в Україну протягом 2003–2021 рр. Вказано, що нині в окремих країнах ЄС, які не відмовились від імпорту російських енергоносіїв, склалась критична ситуація в енергетичній сфері. Проаналізовані ціни на природний газ для населення у країнах ЄС та визначено країни з найвищим рівнем цін на енергоносії. Для відмови від придбання російських енергоносіїв запропоновано виробляти біометан. Охарактеризовано потенціал виробництва біометану в Україні в цілому та в розрізі регіонів і видів сировини. Сьогодні до експорту біометану закордон готується біометановий завод «Галс Агро» у Чернігівській області, а також має переорієнтуватись до 2023 року на виробництво біометану Юзефо-Миколаївська біогазова компанія у Вінницькій області. Визначено передумови виробництва біометану в Україні як зі сторони попиту, так і зі сторони пропозиції, а також основні стримуючі фактори розвитку даної галузі у країні.

Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers

This study analyzes European natural gas (NG) prices since the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients associate prices with and without taxation, whereas a hierarchical clustering analysis clarifies similarities in NG pricing behavior. After performing econometric tests to ensure the satisfaction of classical hypotheses and identify a system of endogenous variables, structured unrestricted and restricted vector autoregressive models are applied to panel data composed of 34 spatial units and 31 units of time drawn from 2007–2022 to confirm the presence of short-term and long-term causal dependencies. The nonparametric analysis identifies three groups of countries that exhibit a differentiated pricing behavior. The parametric analysis reveals a significant and asymmetric short run relation, which is imposed by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Nigeria on the logarithm of NG prices. However, the sign of coefficients associated with lagged LNG imports varies across spatial units belonging to the sample. The error correction term is negative and significant, which implies evidence of cointegration. Since the main result identifies ambiguous short-term effects emerging from the diversification in favor of LNG imports from Nigeria, a straightforward policy recommendation is that this strategic option may be ill advised for Europe and, indirectly, it legitimizes the suggestion that alternative decarbonization options can play a prominent role in European NG markets in the near future.

How would the European Union fare without Russian energy?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced a rapid and profound rethink of the European Union's energy supply as the Europe-Russia energy decoupling has sharply accelerated. This contribution explores how Europe can manage without the imports of Russian coal, crude oil, oil products, and natural gas. We quantify the supply-side gap that will arise and discuss alternative sources of supply, as well as exploring the internal and global bottlenecks that will arise with any attempt to replace Russian molecules. This exercise illustrates that demand-side measures will be necessary to reduce energy consumption, most notably of natural gas. We offer a perspective of the deeper energy integration that EU leaders must strive for to ensure that the bloc is ready for life without Russian energy. We argue that by following four key principles, the bloc will manage without Russian energy: i) bringing forward all available short run domestic supply capacities, ii) all countries making honest and ambitious efforts to reduce demand, iii) enshrining cross-border flows and the functioning of European energy trade, iv) protecting the most vulnerable consumers.

Foreign Policy Alignment and Russia's Energy Weapon

AbstractScholars of international relations disagree whether trade in natural gas between Europe and Russia provides the latter with a source of foreign policy power. Because a reduction in trade of natural gas is costly for importers, the potential economic power of Russia's energy weapon could alter strategic calculations about diplomatic conflict with Russia. Consequently, we hypothesize that increases in dependence on Russian natural gas will lead to more foreign policy convergence with Russia. Using a panel of European states from 1995 to 2013 and a time series of Germany from 1979 to 2013, we find support for our argument that greater dependence on Russian natural gas correlates with more similarity in voting patterns at the United Nations General Assembly. Our research suggests that Russian natural gas imports to Europe shape broader political alignments, adding to the growing body of research on the potential ramifications of Russia's energy weapon.

An Exploration of Critical Success Factors for Lean Project Management in the Upstream Petroleum Industry in Ghana

Lean project management is quickly gaining acceptance in a variety of industries. The problem is despite the discovery of oil and subsequent exploration, Ghana has always been a net importer of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas. Given that lean management implementation inures to better performance and cost efficiencies, this study sought to ascertain the state of lean project management implementation in the upstream petroleum industry using Ghana as a case of an emerging economy context.Employing a Delphi style methodology by seeking experts’ opinions in the upstream sector of Ghana’s petroleum industry, the study found that even though lean project management implemented to an extent within the sector, its implementation is fraught with challenges such as low leadership to drive the lean process, management, and planning for the entire process. Experts in the field gave opinions as to the key considerations for successful implementation of lean project management in the upstream sector and the study recommended that lean project management should be emphasized more in the petroleum sector for higher performance that may inure to the country being a net exporter instead of a net importer of crude products.The study recommends strong leadership teams for the upstream sector to lead lean implementation with adequate training on lean project management provided to all staff for increased commitment and effective implementation that engenders a lean culture in the sector.

Value of long-term LNG contracts: A theoretical and empirical study

With the rapid development of short-term and spot trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the natural gas market is gradually evolving from regionalization to globalization. At the same time, the existence and rationality of long-term LNG contracts have become increasingly controversial. To explore the value of long-term LNG contracts in the process of natural gas market globalization, this article constructs a two-stage game model and applies China’s LNG trade data in 2018 to the model. The study shows that, compared with complete import of short-term LNG, even if the long-term LNG contracts do not have price advantages, importing an appropriate amount of long-term LNG may help to increase the total LNG imports, reduce the price of LNG, and thus improve import benefits. Besides, a moderate amount of long-term LNG contracts is conducive to the establishment of a stable and flexible natural gas supply system and the security of natural gas imports. Therefore, natural gas importers should not underestimate or even ignore the value of long-term LNG contracts while actively participating in short-term and spot trade of natural gas.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ РОЗВИТКУ СУЧАСНОГО СВІТОВОГО РИНКУ СКРАПЛЕНОГО ПРИРОДНОГО ГАЗУ

The article examines the peculiarities of the development of the world liquefied gas market in the conditions of global challenges of today. The historical prerequisites for the formation of the market are briefly presented, it is noted that the liquefied gas market has become an alternative to pipeline transport. Attention is drawn to the fact that in recent years, it is liquefied natural gas that occupies a leading role in the global energy balance. Attention was drawn to the fact that in the long term until 2040, the increase in LNG exports will primarily be due to supplies from the USA, the countries of the Middle East and Africa. Qatar and Australia have been the leading countries in the production of liquefied gas for a long time. The role of the USA as one of the largest exporters of liquefied gas at the current stage and the rapid growth of its share in the structure of exporting countries are highlighted. It is stated that Qatar and the USA are exporters whose supply geography has global differentiation, as for Australia – almost all Australian LNG goes to the Asian (India, China) and Asia-Pacific (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) regions. Significant changes, mainly in the countries of the European Union, that the geography of American LNG exports underwent in 2022 after the start of full-scale military events in Ukraine were noted. The structure of natural gas imports by types of supplies was analyzed. It was established that the increase in import volumes is mainly due to LNG, the volume of which has increased by more than 3.5 times since the beginning of 2000. The dynamics of changes in the volumes of pipeline transport and LNG imports to European countries during 2017-2022 were analyzed. The main countries – importers, Japan, South Korea, China, the USA, India, Spain, Great Britain, Brazil, France, and Mexico – were identified. It is noted that the annual volumes of LNG import capacities of the three countries of the Asia-Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, and China) exceed the combined LNG import capacities of all other countries of the world by 1.7 times.

Energy and food security implications of transitioning synthetic nitrogen fertilizers to net-zero emissions

By synthetically producing nitrogen fertilizers from ammonia (NH3), the Haber–Bosch process has been feeding humanity for more than one hundred years. However, current NH3 production relies on fossil fuels, and is energy and carbon intensive. This commits humanity to emissions levels not compatible with climate goals and commits agricultural production to fossil fuels dependency. Here, we quantify food and energy implications of transitioning nitrogen fertilizers to net-zero CO2 emissions. We find that 1.07 billion people are fed from food produced from imported nitrogen fertilizers. An additional 710 million people are fed from imported natural gas feedstocks used for fertilizers production, meaning that 1.78 billion people per year are fed from imports of either fertilizers or natural gas. These findings highlight the reliance of global food production on trading and fossil fuels, hence its vulnerability to supply and energy shocks. However, alternative routes to achieve net-zero emissions in NH3 production exist, which are based on carbon capture and storage, electrification, and biomass. These routes comply with climate targets while mitigating the risks associated with food security. Yet, they require more land, energy, and water than business-as-usual production, exacerbating land and water scarcity and the use of limited natural resources. Transitioning fertilizers to net-zero emissions can contribute to climate and food security goals, although water, land, and energy trade-offs should be considered.

How much natural gas does China need: An empirical study from the perspective of energy transition

The proposed policy targets of “2030 carbon peaking” and “2060 carbon neutrality” further accelerate the substitution of natural gas for oil and coal. In this paper, we systematically considered the growth trend of natural gas demand from both the total amount and the structure of energy.On the basis of 60-year sample data, we built the HMM model innovatively to simulate the complementary and alternative structural effects between different energy. In addition, according to the different policy intensity, we simulated the history of energy demand and forecast the future trend in three scenarios. The empirical results show that the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption in China in 2035 is 16.5%, 17.3%, and 13.6%, respectively, translating into natural gas demand of 6975, 7316, and 5748 bcm. Therefore, policymakers should promote energy transformation in a steady and orderly manner based on national conditions and strengthen gas demand-side management on the premise of ensuring reasonable demand. Our prediction of natural gas demand from a new perspective can assist policymakers to formulate the natural gas demand-side policy and import plan, and also provide a reference for studies of achieving the goal of energy transition and “2060 carbon neutrality".

The Economics of Protectionism and Panic: The European Natural Gas Disaster of 2021–2022 (so far)

Europe is living through a disaster in its natural gas industry that is harming energy consumers and businesses throughout the continent. Using levers of market power that European regulatory and legislative institutions unwisely gave to it over the prior two decades, with the cooperation of Europe's member state natural gas companies, Russia manipulated exports to Europe in the late 2021 run‐up to its invasion of Ukraine. That manipulation has not only caused panic pricing of Russian supplies, but also for the natural gas coming from other countries to Europe, such as Norway and Algeria, for which no panic was necessary. The spread of panic pricing came about because of purposeful actions in Europe to place most natural gas import pricing on an unstable knife edge—institutionalizing the ability of such panic pricing to permeate all energy import prices and disrupt the European energy markets as electricity market models picked up those panicked internal gas prices. Such disruption has caused heavy state subsidization of energy prices throughout Europe, insolvency, crippling of European exporters—such as Italy's highly regarded ceramics industry, nationalization of some energy businesses, and increasing member state abandonment of the European Energy Charter Treaty.

War in Ukraine: The options for Europe's energy supply

AbstractEurope is likely to remain reliant on Russian gas in the short term. In the absence of this gas supply, the continent is likely to experience shortages and associated inflation. Immediate solutions include diversification of Europe's natural gas supply and the use of alternative fossil fuels, such as coal, but the latter would come with significant climate costs. Over a longer period, there is more scope for reshaping Europe's energy policy and diversifying its energy supply, but these would come at a cost. Expanding renewable energy capacity within Europe is critical. Fine‐tuning policy to balance climate objectives against the security of the energy supply will be difficult. To ensure energy security and emerge from this conflict greener, the answer may be renewable energy produced in Europe. Investment in renewables in developing countries, particularly in the continent's trading partners, also holds promise, as it would allow more natural gas imports into Europe while contributing to Europe's climate commitments.

Hydrogen blending in the Italian scenario: Effects on a real distribution network considering natural gas origin

Blending hydrogen into the natural gas network can help decarbonize the energy sector by supporting the penetration of renewables. Italy is an importer of natural gas whose composition and properties depend on its origin. Previous literature simulates gas networks using a set of hydrogen molar fractions regardless of the natural gas composition variability. Instead, this paper defines the maximum mixable percentage of hydrogen as a function of the gas composition underlining the importance of not adopting a single hydrogen limit. Furthermore, the paper investigates whether guaranteeing gas quality also guarantees compliance with fluid dynamic constraints on a real network. The test case consists of seven gases imported in Italy in 2019 and an urban distribution network, meshed and consisting of more than 2000 elements with medium and several low-pressure levels. A steady-state simulation of the network is performed using each of the seven gases for a winter day in the case of pure natural gas and natural gas blended with hydrogen. The results show that the highest hydrogen molar fraction mixable in these gases can range between 5.3% and 14.8% and considering the lowest percentage can reduce the decarbonization potential of the network by 1463 kg of CO2,eq. The simulations show that fluid-dynamic standards are not always met in the low-pressure networks and safety limits on pressure and velocity are exceeded at peak demand. The results also lead the authors to suggest that a modulation of pressure setpoints as a function of gas composition should be investigated.