Gas market integration in South America: The role of Argentine gas to reduce the regional exposure to liquefied natural gas imports

Abstract

After spending several years as net importer of natural gas, the development of unconventional gas reserves in Argentina can revert this scenario and change the dynamics of the Southern Cone regional gas integration. To assess the role of Argentine gas, this study utilised the TIMES-ConoSur optimisation model, which represents the regional integration of the gas and electricity systems. To improve the level of detail of the results, updates and modifications in different settings were made in the first version of the model. In addition, four scenarios were tested with two levels of LNG (liquefied natural gas) prices and including or not the interconnection between Argentina gas network and Brazil integrated network. The role of the Argentine gas was analysed based on its production potential and the export potential to the neighbour countries. Findings indicated that the development of the Argentine gas reserves can be a game changer, as it can affect directly the regional dynamics and the gas supply of the neighbour countries. The main future dynamics of the other countries in the region were also assessed, such as the role of Bolivian gas, the challenges to develop pre-salt gas and how will be the future of LNG in the region.