National Centers For Environmental Prediction Research Articles

Comparison of Cloud/Rain Band Structures of Typhoon Muifa (2022) Revealed in FY‐3E MWHS‐2 Observations With All‐Sky Simulations

AbstractAll‐sky simulations of brightness temperature (TB) at Microwave Humidity Sounder‐2 (MWHS‐2) channel 15 from Fengyun‐3E (FY‐3E) are generated based on the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis for four typhoon cases. For Typhoon Muifa (2022), the MWHS‐2 TB observations have a strongest symmetric component within about 210‐km radial distances. Although much weaker, the symmetric component in the GFS all‐sky simulations compares more favorably with that of observations than the ERA5 all‐sky simulations. Due to ice scattering effects at 183.31 ± 7 GHz, spatial distribution patterns of TB observations and all‐sky simulations are quite similar to those of ice water path. The more cloud ice, the lower the TB. Deep convective systems within Muifa are captured by TB observations but not by simulations. Using an objective azimuthal‐spectral‐analysis based center‐fixing algorithm, the center positions of Typhoon Muifa can be well determined from both MWHS‐2 observations and GFS all‐sky simulations, but not from the ERA5 all‐sky TB simulations. Compared with the best track, the average center position errors for Muifa are 16.2, 24.9 and 74.4 km based on FY‐3E MWHS‐2 TB observations, the GFS all‐sky TB simulations, and the ERA5 all‐sky simulations, respectively. The conclusions of TC cloud/rain band structures and center positions of all‐sky simulations using the NCEP‐GFS analysis being better matching with those of FY‐3E MWHS‐2 observations than the ERA5 all‐sky simulations for Typhoon Muifa also hold true for three other typhoons.

Impacts of Dropsonde Observations on Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation in the NCEP GFS and ECMWF IFS Models

Abstract Atmospheric River Reconnaissance has held field campaigns during cool seasons since 2016. These campaigns have provided thousands of dropsonde data profiles, which are assimilated into multiple global operational numerical weather prediction models. Data denial experiments, conducted by running a parallel set of forecasts that exclude the dropsonde information, allow testing of the impact of the dropsonde data on model analyses and the subsequent forecasts. Here, we investigate the differences in skill between the control forecasts (with dropsonde data assimilated) and denial forecasts (without dropsonde data assimilated) in terms of both precipitation and integrated vapor transport (IVT) at multiple thresholds. The differences are considered in the times and locations where there is a reasonable expectation of influence of an intensive observation period (IOP). Results for 2019 and 2020 from both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model show improvements with the added information from the dropsondes. In particular, significant improvements in the control forecast IVT generally occur in both models, especially at higher values. Significant improvements in the control forecast precipitation also generally occur in both models, but the improvements vary depending on the lead time and metrics used. Significance Statement Atmospheric River Reconnaissance is a program that uses targeted aircraft flights over the northeast Pacific to take measurements of meteorological fields. These data are then ingested into global weather models with the intent of improving the initial conditions and resulting forecasts along the U.S. West Coast. The impacts of these observations on two global numerical weather models were investigated to determine their influence on the forecasts. The integrated vapor transport, a measure of both wind and humidity, saw significant improvements in both models with the additional observations. Precipitation forecasts were also improved, but with differing results between the two models.

A contrastive analysis on the causes of two regional snowstorm processes influenced by the southern branch trough in Hunan in early 2022

AbstractIn early 2022, there were four low‐temperature weather processes with rain and snow in Hunan Province, China. Two processes occurred on January 28–29 (referred to as the “0128” process) and February 6–7 (referred to as the “0206” process), and they have overlapping areas of heavy snowfall and high intensity of short‐term snowfall. Multi‐source observation data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data are used to analyze the characteristics of circulation background and mesoscale. In addition, the causes of heavy snowfall processes under the influence of the southern branch trough are discussed based on the dual‐polarization radar products at Changsha station. The results show that two processes are characterized by the rapid phase transformation of rain and snow, concentrated snowfall periods, and heavy snowfall at night. The short‐term snowfall intensity of the “0206” process is greater than that of the “0128” process. The high‐latitude blocking high of the “0206” process is stronger than that of the “0128” process, and the water vapor transport of the southerly jet in low levels in the “0206” process is also stronger. The organized development of cold cloud clusters from the meso‐β scale to the meso‐α scale indicates that the snowfall intensifies, and the maximum blackbody temperature gradient corresponds well to the center of heavy snowfall. The propagation that is similar to the train effect is an important reason for the heavy snowfall process. The vertical variation of the ZH and the bright band of dual‐polarization parameters can determine the phase transformation between rain and snow. When the ZH and ZDR bright bands are 1–3 km away from the ground, the phase state is rain if the ZH near the ground is greater than 0 dBZ and the CC is close to 1; the phase state is the rain‐snow mixed phase if the CC is less than 0.95. When the bottom of the ZH bright band decreases, the CC/ZDR bright band disappears, the near‐surface CC is greater than 0.99 and the ZDR is less than 1 dB, the rain turns to snow. Compared with the “0128” process, the characteristics of the bright ring during the rainfall period of the “0206” process are more obvious, the precipitation intensity judged from the larger ZH and KDP is larger, and the phase transformation is faster due to more significant cooling effect caused by precipitation.

Study of the Sea Temperature Backgrounds to Tropical Cyclones Affecting Hainan Province in the Dry Season

Using the best path data set of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) SST (surface sea temperature) data and NCEP subsurface sea temperature data, the sea temperature background of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province in the dry season was analyzed using typical cases from November to December. The results show that there was a significant positive correlation between the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province and the sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. The high SST in the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific were favorable for the occurrence and development of tropical cyclones. The circulation situation also had a significant impact on tropical cyclones during the concurrent period. The wind field convergence was conducive to the occurrence and development of tropical cyclones. The high subsurface sea temperature in the Western Pacific at the depth of 5–50 m was conducive to the strengthening of convection in the Pacific warm pool and the occurrence of the tropical cyclones. The typical cases of 1993 and 2017 have effectively verified the impact of the sea surface temperature background and circulation situation on tropical cyclones affecting the Hainan Province from November to December.

Assimilation of Additional Radiosonde Observation Helps Improve the Prediction of Typhoon-Related Rainfall in the Pearl River Delta

Abstract Typhoons frequently hit the Pearl River Delta (PRD), threatening the region’s dense population and assets. Typhoon precipitation forecasting in this region is challenging, in part because of the complex hydrometeorological effects over the coast and the scarcity of upstream marine meteorological observations. Typhoon Mun was formed in the South China Sea on 2 July 2019, and it brought heavy rainfall to the PRD when its center moved to the Beibu Gulf. During Typhoon Mun, an additional sounding was conducted offshore in the PRD every 12 h to assess the incremental impact on the skill of precipitation forecasting. A precipitation prediction based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model underestimated the 12-h accumulated precipitation over the PRD by 87%, with the Final Analysis (FNL) data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the United States as initial fields. To address this issue, we implemented a solution by reconstructing the initial field through the assimilation of the additional radiosonde observations using the WRF three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) method. The prediction with the new initial fields reduced the rainfall underestimation by 24%. A difference analysis indicates that the planetary boundary layer scheme used in FNL underestimates the low-level temperature and humidity, especially after the rainfall peak. In contrast, assimilation gives a more realistic lower-tropospheric structure, significantly enhancing the moisture flux convergence around 925 hPa and divergence around 700 hPa around the PRD. Sensitivity experiments show that assimilating atmospheric thermal (i.e., temperature and humidity) profiles is more helpful than dynamic (wind) profiles in improving the rainfall prediction of the typhoon. Significance Statement The impact of typhoon-related precipitation in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) is significant. Improving the numerical forecast precision in this region poses challenges, partly due to the influences of land–sea thermal and topographic factors near the boundary layer, as well as the scarcity of upstream observational data. This study proposes a practical method to improve typhoon-related precipitation prediction from a case study of Typhoon Mun. By assimilating additional sounding observations, we obtain a more realistic structure of the lower atmosphere, better spatial patterns of water vapor fluxes, and, ultimately, better precipitation forecasts. The results of our study suggest that a more advanced observing system of vertical atmospheric structure, especially the thermal one, over the South China Sea is important for improving typhoon predictions.

Utilizing Numerical Models and GIS to Enhance Information Management for Oil Spill Emergency Response and Resource Allocation in the Taiwan Waters

This study aims to establish a comprehensive workflow for developing emergency response plans for both actual and scenario oil spill incidents in the Taiwan waters while addressing the resource allocation for oil spill containment as well. This workflow comprises two vital components. The first component involves the integration of numerical tools and observational data, which includes the incorporation of wind data from sources such as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) or meteorological stations. Additionally, it incorporates ocean current data simulated by the semi-implicit cross-scale hydroscience integrated system model (SCHISM) into the general NOAA operational modeling environment (GNOME) model, which is a new approach for this purpose. In order to assess the efficacy of this component, two distinct case studies were conducted. The first case study focused on an incident in a northern coastal area of Taiwan under open sea conditions, whereas the second case study examined an incident within a major commercial harbor in central Taiwan. The second component of this workflow involves creating oil risk maps by integrating the results from the first component with specific geographical factors into Google Earth. These oil risk maps serve multiple purposes. They offer real-time information to emergency response commanders regarding oil spill hazard prediction, and they also enable the effective development of emergency response strategies and disposal plans for potential oil spill incidents. This is achieved by generating risk maps for various scenarios using the approach outlined in the first component. Additionally, these maps assist in the assessment and planning of resource allocation for oil containment.

Development of flood forecasting and warning system using hybrid approach of ensemble and hydrological model for Dharoi Dam

Abstract The most frequent natural disaster is flooding. Advanced forecasting systems are lacking in developing countries. The majority of urban areas are located close to flood plains for rivers. Accurate flood forecasting is necessary for reservoir planning and flood management. The Sabarmati River's atmospheric-hydrologic ensemble flood forecasting model has been developed using TIGGE data. Precipitation can be reliably predicted by TIGGE's global ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. By using NWP data, flood forecasting systems may be extended from hours to days. Ensemble weather forecasts are produced using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Centers for Environmental Prediction together with 5-day lead times from TIGGE. The flood occurrences from 2015, 2017, and 2020 were used for the calibration and validation of the ensemble flood forecasting model. Bias was corrected using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), heterogeneous extended linear regression, censored non-homogeneous linear regression (cNLR), and other statistical downscaling techniques. Forecasted and downscaled precipitation data were checked using the Brier score and rank likelihood score. For cNLR, Brier's score performed admirably. The specificity vs. sensitivity performance of the cNLR and BMA approaches is 91.87 and 91.82%, respectively, according to receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve diagrams. Models with the hybrid hydrologic coupling approach accurately predict floods. Users may predict peak time and peak discharge hazard likelihood with reliability using peak time and flood warning probability distributions.

Forecasting daily extreme temperatures in Chinese representative cities using artificial intelligence models

Accurate daily extreme temperature forecasts are important for public safety. However, traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methods for temperature forecasting become increasingly costly and time-consuming as forecast resolution improves. To overcome these challenges, recent studies have embraced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. In this paper, we select five AI models: Multiple linear regression, Support Vector Regressor, Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT), Long Short-Term Memory, and multilayer perceptron (MLP) to forecast extreme temperatures in nine representative Chinese cities, which are Harbin, Xian, Beijing, and Lhasa in the North and Shanghai, Guiyang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Haikou in the South. To assess the performances, we compare AI models with two benchmarks: the persistence method by using the previous day's temperature extremes directly, and the prediction from the NWP method of the Global Forecast System (GFS) provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Among the 7 models forecasting daily extreme temperatures in nine cities, the MLP model outperforms the best, followed by the GBRT model. Compared with the persistence forecast, all 5 AI models and GFS show forecasting ability for daily maximum temperature. However, the GFS performs worse than the persistence model for daily minimum temperature. Specifically, for the MLP model, the average Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) for forecasting daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the 9 cities are 1.61 °C and 1.14 °C, reducing the GFS model's MAEs for daily maximum and minimum temperatures forecasts by 15% and 45%, respectively. Overall, AI models show promise in enhancing temperature forecasting accuracy.

Evaluation of multiple gridded snowfall datasets using gauge observations over high mountain Asia

Snowfall is an important component of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) cryosphere; its changes affect the regional energy and water balance. Snowfall data from numerous gridded products provide the basis for conducting climate-change studies; however, the applicability of these datasets in HMA has not been assessed comprehensively in terms of precipitation. This study comprehensively evaluates the applicability of the following widely used gridded datasets in HMA for the period 1991–2014: fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), High Asia Refined analysis (HAR), Multi-Source Weather (MSWX), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). The accuracy features of each dataset were evaluated based on observations from 148 gauges at various temporal scales (i.e., annual, monthly, and daily), elevations, sub-regions, and snowfall intensities. The results show that CMFD performs better at multiple temporal scales (i.e., annual, cool season, monthly, and daily) than other snowfall data. In addition, the CMFD accuracy has good stability, even at different elevations. CMFD is advantageous regarding interpreting the frequency and amount of different levels of (even extreme) snowfall events. The slightly inferior MSWX also performs well at different timescales, spatial scales, and elevations, and constitutes an attractive alternative to CMFD. HAR captures better light and moderate snowfall, and is the most accurate of the three sets of gridded products that contain direct snowfall data. This study constitutes an important reference for selecting suitable snowfall datasets for future scientific research.

Seasonal climate models for national wheat yield forecasts in Brazil

National wheat yield depends on climate conditions and usually remains unknown until harvest. In-season knowledge can be provided by wheat yield forecast systems, supporting the decision-making of farmers, food traders, or policymakers. In this study, we improved a previously developed statistical wheat yield model to forecast trend-corrected wheat yield in Brazil with monthly temperature and precipitation data from seasonal climate models (SCM) from the last three months before harvest. We chose SCM from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the UK-based Met-Office (UKMO). A multi-model ensembles (MME) approach from the three individual models as well as a climatology (CLIMATE) approach were also tested. Wheat yield forecasts were issued at the beginning of each month from planting in April to harvest in November. Each month, features from future months are forecasted by SCM, and past features are supplemented with observations from weather stations. Our approach shows a 12% RMSE in forecasting yield early in the season, from April to June. Forecasts start to improve from July onwards, with shorter lead times and including observed features from September onwards. At the beginning of October, about two months before harvest is completed, wheat yield can be forecasted with 7.6%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 9.1%, and 9.3% RMSE using climate data from UKMO, ECMWF, MME, NCEP, and CLIMATE respectively. Seasonal climate models can be useful tools to forecast national wheat yield, even shortly before harvest to prepare for possible food shortages. Our approach could be applied to other staple crops and regions.

Air Temperature Variations in Multiple Layers of the Indonesia Earthquake Based on the Tidal Forces

The air temperature changes in the Palu MW7.5 earthquake in Indonesia on 28 September 2018 were analyzed, based on the additive tectonic stress caused by celestial tidal-generating forces (ATSCTF) and air temperature data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This paper explored the variation characteristics of three-dimensional stratified of air temperature caused by seismic activity and the coupling relationship between air temperature changes and the tidal force. The background information for air temperature calculation was obtained from the tidal force changes, and the air temperature increment method was used to study the temperature evolution process of different periods in the study area. The results found that the tidal force acting on the critical state earthquake faults may be an important external factor inducing earthquakes, and there was indeed a significant air temperature increase anomaly during the Palu MW7.5 earthquake. The paper also summarized the abnormal characteristics of air temperature caused by seismic activity: the air temperature closer to the land’s surface has greater anomaly amplitude and a wider anomaly area than that of the upper air.

Performance of land surface schemes on simulation of land falling tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using ARW model

The present study encompasses the performance of Land Surface Model (LSM) physics on simulation of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) key characteristics - track, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum sustained wind (MSW) and rainfall. The impact of four LSM schemes - Thermal Diffusion, Noah, RUC and Noah-MP, is evaluated for the simulation of Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) ‘Vardah’ that crossed Tamil Nadu coast, near Chennai on 12 December, 2016 and Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms (ESCS) ‘Fani’ that crossed Odisha coast, close to Puri on 03 May, 2019. For this purpose, the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model, configured with a single domain of 9 km horizontal resolution covering the Bay of Bengalis considered. The initial and lateral boundary conditions to the model integration are taken from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL). The model simulated track is verified with India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed track for both the cases. The model simulated MSW and MSLP at the landfall location is validated with IMD best estimation along with fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-analysis (ERA5) products. The rainfall associated with both the cyclones are compared with ERA5 and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) rainfall for its validation. The track of TCs Vardah and Fani are well simulated with all the four land surface schemes with reasonable accuracy in landfall position and time of landfall of the systems. The Along Track Error (ATE) and Cross Track Error (CTE) are minimal for the unified Noah LSM scheme. The landfall position error (about 2 km only) is significantly improved with the unified Noah scheme. In case of rainfall forecast, LSMs tend to overestimate the rainfall during landfall of both systems. It is also noticed that overestimation is more towards inland than on the coast. Out of all four LSMs, rainfall estimation from the RUC is closest to the GPM and ERA5 rainfall estimates during landfall. In addition to this, RUC scheme intensifies the cyclones in terms of MSLP and MSW during the landfall of the system as compared to the other parameterization schemes.

Intercomparison of tropospheric and stratospheric mesoscale kinetic energy resolved by the high‐resolution global reanalysis datasets

AbstractWith the development of advanced data assimilation and computing techniques, many modern global reanalysis datasets aim to resolve the atmospheric mesoscale spectrum. However, large uncertainties remain with respect to the representation of mesoscale motions in these reanalysis datasets, for which a clear understanding is lacking. The aforementioned challenges have served as a strong motivation to reveal and quantify their mesoscale differences. This study presents the first comprehensive global intercomparison of the tropospheric and stratospheric mesoscale kinetic energy and its spectra over two selected periods of summer and winter events among six leading high‐resolution atmospheric reanalysis products: European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), China Meteorological Administration Reanalysis, Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2, National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis, and ECMWF Reanalysis‐Interim. A state‐of‐the‐art global operational model is adopted as a supplementary reference. Although all reanalysis datasets can reproduce broad distribution characteristics that are grossly consistent with the 9 km model, there are substantial discrepancies among them in magnitudes. The ability to capture mesoscale signals is closely linked to their resolutions, but it is also impacted by other factors, including, but not limited to, the selected types of energy, seasons, altitudes, latitudes, model diffusions, parametrization schemes, moist condition, assimilation methods, and observation inputs. Moreover, all datasets illustrate conclusive behaviors for the prevalence of the rotational component in the troposphere, whereas only very few products fail to exhibit the dominance of the divergent component in the stratosphere. Overall, stratospheric ERA5 and CFSv2 outperform the other reanalysis datasets, and only these two can reproduce the feature of the canonical kinetic energy spectrum with a distinct shift from a steeper slope (approximately −3) at lower wave numbers to a shallower slope (approximately −5/3) at higher wave numbers. In addition, the relative disparities among datasets increase dramatically with height, and they are more pronounced in the divergent component. It is also found that the correlations among these datasets are much weaker in the Tropics.

Active and break spells of summer monsoon over Bangladesh

This study examines the intraseasonal variability of the southwest summer monsoon over Bangladesh using rainfall data from rain gauge stations of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) collected over 30 years (1988–2017). In this paper, active and break spells are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the daily precipitation lasts for three or more days at 0.5 above and below the daily climatological cycle. The active and break phases of the monsoon over a period of 10 years (2008–2017) were also analyzed by The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation for analysing synoptic conditions. The model simulations for each year were done for the period of 1 May to 30 September with 1 May as the initial condition with a single domain of 30 km resolution and 19 vertical levels. The final operational global analysis data from the Global Forecasting System of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP-FNL) with resolution 1° × 1° is used for model simulation. The model-simulated daily rainfall, Sea Level Pressure (SLP), wind pattern at 850 hPa, 200 hPa, and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) are compared with the observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), ERA5 (ERA5 is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-gen global atmospheric reanalysis data), and Kalpana-1. This study also finds that the increase in rainfall is concurrent with a southwesterly wind and the decrease of rainfall simultaneously occurs with a southeasterly wind. Active days were found to have lower OLR values and lower SLP than break days.

Conditional Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Postprocessing of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasting

Abstract Forecasts produced by EPSs provide the potential state of the future atmosphere and quantify uncertainty. However, the raw ensemble forecasts from a single EPS are typically characterized by underdispersive predictions, especially for precipitation that follows a right-skewed gamma distribution. In this study, censored and shifted gamma distribution ensemble model output statistics (CSG-EMOS) is performed as one of the state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic precipitation postprocessing across China. Ensemble forecasts from multiple EPSs, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Met Office, are collected as raw ensembles. A conditional CSG EMOS (Cond-CSG-EMOS) model is further proposed to calibrate the ensemble forecasts for heavy-precipitation events, where the standard CSG-EMOS is insufficient. The precipitation samples from the training period are divided into two categories, light- and heavy-precipitation events, according to a given precipitation threshold and prior ensemble forecast. Then individual models are, respectively, optimized for adequate parameter estimation. The results demonstrate that the Cond-CSG-EMOS is superior to the raw EPSs and the standard CSG-EMOS, especially for the calibration of heavy-precipitation events. The spatial distribution of forecast skills shows that the Cond-CSG-EMOS outperforms the others over most of the study region, particularly in North and Central China. A sensitivity testing on the precipitation threshold shows that a higher threshold leads to better outcomes for the regions that have more heavy-precipitation events, i.e., South China. Our results indicate that the proposed Cond-CSG-EMOS model is a promising approach for the statistical postprocessing of ensemble precipitation forecasts. Significance Statement Heavy-precipitation events are of highly socioeconomic relevance. But it remains a great challenge to obtain high-quality probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PQPF) from the operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Statistical postprocessing is commonly used to calibrate the systematic errors of the raw EPSs forecasts. However, the non-Gaussian nature of precipitation and the imbalance between the size of light- and heavy-precipitation samples add to the challenge. This study proposes a conditional postprocessing method to improve PQPF of heavy precipitation by performing calibration separately for light and heavy precipitation, in contrast to some previous studies. Our results indicate that the conditional model mitigates the underestimation of heavy precipitation, as well as with a better calibration for the light- and moderate-precipitation.

Subseasonal Prediction of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice by a Deep Learning Model

AbstractAntarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction at seasonal scale has been documented, but a gap remains at subseasonal scale (1–8 weeks) due to limited understanding of ice‐related physical mechanisms. To overcome this limitation, we developed a deep learning model named Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPNet) that can predict SIC without the need to account for complex physical processes. Compared to mainstream dynamical models like European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, as well as a relatively advanced statistical model like the linear Markov model, SIPNet outperforms them all, effectively filling the gap in subseasonal Antarctic SIC prediction capability. SIPNet results indicate that autumn SIC variability contributes the most to sea ice predictability, whereas spring contributes the least. In addition, the Weddell Sea displays the highest sea ice predictability, while predictability is low in the West Pacific. SIPNet can also capture the signal of ENSO and SAM on sea ice.

Addressing the quantification of meteorological uncertainties in the atmospheric transport simulations of the 133Xe industrial background

The French National Data Center (NDC) uses an automated simulation of the 133Xe worldwide atmospheric background as one of the means to categorize the radionuclide measurements of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS). These simulations take into account 133Xe releases from the known or assumed major industrial emitters in the world and global-scale meteorological data. However, a quantification of the simulation uncertainties in this operational set up is yet to be addressed. This work discusses the benefits of meteorological ensemble data as available from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for that purpose. For this study, the daily dispersion of releases from the Institute for Radio Elements (IRE), a medical isotope production facility located in Fleurus (Belgium), was calculated over one year with emissions measured in-site and ensemble meteorological data. The ensemble contains 31 members, which resulted in as many predictions of activity concentration for any given time and place. The resulting distribution statistics (mean, median and spread), and the control run, were confronted to the deterministic run and to measurements at one IMS-like station near Paris (France) and one IMS station in Freiburg (Germany). Overall, the ensemble results have decreased the simulation performance, as expected given the use of meteorological analyses only. However, contrasting patterns were found with a detailed analysis of daily activity concentration over two one-month-and-a-half periods. Noticeably, outlier results were found to carry the best forecast in some significant detections, proving their relevance for the measurement categorization, despite their isolated character. Importantly, the ensemble has allowed the quantification of meteorological uncertainties, which was beneficial in all cases. It either has improved the confidence of IMS data categorization or has pointed to low confidence predictions. A criterion to identify the latter is suggested, based on information provided by the ensemble distributions. In addition, maps of probability of detections and of relative spread are suggested to show additional benefits of ensemble meteorology.

Scale Analysis of Typhoon In-Fa (2021) Based on FY-4A Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) Observed and All-Sky-Simulated Brightness Temperature

Based on the Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the all-sky brightness temperatures of the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) onboard the Fengyun-4A satellite (FY-4A) are simulated, which are then used to investigate Typhoon In-Fa (2021). The results show that the all-sky simulations based on ERA5 and FNL for FY-4A GIIRS channels 27 (716.25 cm−1), 90 (755.625 cm−1), and 417 (960 cm−1) can reproduce well the structure and intensity of Typhoon In-Fa. But the FNL simulations overestimate the typhoon intensity with more high ice clouds around the typhoon center. Fourier analysis of Typhoon In-Fa at severe tropical storm (STS) and typhoon (TY) stages is conducted. The results reveal that the dominant features of Typhoon In-Fa are primarily large-scale, with a relatively small proportion of observations and simulations dedicated to small-scale features at the STS stage. However, the proportion of large-scale features decreases while the amount of small-scale information increases during the TY stage. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of FY-4A GIIRS all-sky simulations based on the ERA5 and FNL data, as well as to prepare for future all-sky data assimilations.

Assessing the benefit of variational quality control for assimilating Aeolus Mie and Rayleigh wind profiles in NOAA's global forecast system during tropical cyclones

AbstractIn this article, we show a “proof‐of‐concept” study to assess the utility of a variational quality control algorithm in increasing the number of assimilated Aeolus Mie‐cloudy and Rayleigh‐clear winds in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s global data assimilation and forecast system. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Variational Quality Control (NCEP‐VQC) algorithm was tuned and applied during the minimization process. This type of quality control uses optimal control theory principles to treat outliers in the probability density function (PDF) of observational departure statistics, assuming that the observation errors follow a family of logistic distributions. In the case of Aeolus Mie‐cloudy and Rayleigh‐clear winds, the NCEP‐VQC algorithm permitted the relaxation of the gross error and one of the recommended ESA quality controls (reject Rayleigh‐clear observations below 850 hPa), assigned adaptive observation weights ranging from 0 to 1, and led to an increase in the number of retained Aeolus observations for the calculation of global analyses, which in turn improved the verification statistics on analyzed tropical storms This article discusses the advantage of implementing the NCEP‐VQC algorithm in the Aeolus data assimilation, the benefits of retaining more wind profiles that contribute to the analysis calculation, and shows improvements in the initialization and short‐term forecasts on several tropical cyclone cases.

Evaluating Medium-Range Forecast Performance of Regional-Scale Circulation Patterns

Abstract Accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasts are crucial to making important decisions in many sectors. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of society and what forecasters can produce, especially at weekly and longer lead times. We hypothesize that by clustering atmospheric states into a number of predefined categories, the noise can be reduced and, consequently, medium-range forecasts can be improved. Self-organizing map (SOM)-based clustering was used on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data from the North American Regional Reanalysis to categorize the synoptic-scale circulation for eastern North America from 1979 to 2016 into 28 discrete patterns. Then, using two goodness-of-fit metrics, the relative skill of four different forecasting methods over a 90-day lead time was studied: 1) a circulation pattern (CP) forecast, 2) raw forecast output from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) operated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), 3) a simple climatology forecast, and 4) a simple persistence forecast. As expected, forecast skill of both the CP forecast and the raw CFS forecast generally decreased rapidly from the first day, coming to parity with the skill of climatology after 10–12 days when using correlation, and at 7–10 days when using the root-mean-square error (RMSE). Most importantly, this study found that the CP forecast was the most skillful forecast method over the 8–11-day lead time when using RMSE. On a spatial basis, the skill of the CP forecast and the raw CFS decreases latitudinally from north to south. This study thus demonstrates the potential utility of categorical or circulation pattern–based forecasting at 1–2-week lead times.