Multi-scenario Approach Research Articles

Initiating Negotiations: The Role of Machiavellianism, Risk Propensity, and Bargaining Power

Initiation is an often-overlooked yet essential stage of the negotiation process. This study examined the effects of two measures of personality—Machiavellianism and risk propensity—and relative bargaining power (as based on multiple situational factors) on three phases of the initiation process—engaging a counterpart, making a request, and optimizing the request. Using a multi-scenario approach, one hundred fifteen participants indicated their initiation preferences for three distinct negotiations. The results of repeated measures ANOVAs indicate that bargaining power influences an individual’s decision to initiate negotiations. In addition, those high in Machiavellianism choose to initiate negotiations even when relative bargaining power is low, whereas those high in risk propensity tend to optimize their requests. The implications of these findings for practitioners and future research are discussed.

Ultradeepwater-Subsalt-Reservoir Characterization: Integrated Multiscenario Development Planning

This article, written by Senior Technology Editor Dennis Denney, contains highlights of paper SPE 142280, ’Ultradeepwater- Subsalt-Reservoir Characterization: An Integrated Multiscenario Approach for Development Planning,’ by Olivier Pippi, SPE, Statoil ASA (formerly with BP plc), Mike Mayall, Mike Chandler, SPE, Tim Dodd, Paul Reid, and Paul Taylor, BP plc, prepared for the 2011 SPE Europec/EAGE Annual Conference and Exhibition, Vienna, Austria, 23-26 May. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Subsea development of clustered deepwater subsalt fields is challenging, technically and economically. With the high cost of appraisal wells, the industry tends to rely on seismic technology, pushing the limits of imaging and characterizing the reservoir by use of seismic attributes. A fully integrated approach that uses all available data should be followed to describe the uncertainty fully and to make an optimized business decision. This work shows a systematic method to integrate information available from a limited data set to validate the description of the field and to perform a full risk and uncertainty analysis supporting the field-development strategy. Introduction Many exploration plays in deepwater basins around the world involve structural closures associated with stratigraphic-trapping elements that are above or against salt diapirs or canopies. Below these often-large salt bodies, seismic imaging can be impaired significantly, which makes the crest of the structure particularly complicated to map. Updip volumes that are close to the salt can be difficult to describe with confidence, yielding large uncertainty about hydrocarbon volumes in place. Reservoir faulting induced by the movement of the salt over geological time introduces significant structural complexity. This complexity adds to common stratigraphic and depositional complexity of deepwater reservoirs deposited in turbidite slope settings. Deepwater turbidite reservoirs can be large erosional channels (typically 1 to 3 km wide and 50 to 200 m thick) or can be sheet-like sands (typically 1 to 5 km wide and 5 to 30 m thick) with various degrees of channel amalgamation. Each type of reservoir poses specific development challenges in terms of continuity and connectivity. Multiscenario Risk and Uncertainty Analysis Given the structural complexity of the field, the wide range of oil-in-place estimates results in making risk and uncertainty analysis difficult to address at the same time. A project close to sanction would have a firmer resources-in-place definition before making a decision. Alternatively, the decision would have flexibility to be phased in over a certain time as new production data become available.

Hazard analysis and estimation of people exposure as contribution to tsunami risk assessment in the West Coast of Sumatra, the South Coast of Java and Bali

Summary. Th e Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 dramatically showed the catastrophic consequences when destructive tsunami waves are striking coastal areas. Moreover, it became clear that there is an urgent need for tsunami early warning systems to be set up together with appropriate awareness raising and preparedness activities. In response to this catastrophic event and under the coordination by the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission the Indian Ocean countries are jointly working on the development, implementation and operation of a tsunami early warning system and the realization of disaster risk assessment and preparedness activities. A crucial component in disaster risk management is the availability of reliable information on the population distribution in the tsunami hazard zones in order to mitigate the impact of natural disasters. Th e mapping of tsunami hazard zones and the estimation of people exposure will help the government to improve the evacuation planning and to decrease the amount of people at risk. Th is paper presents research results developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project focussing on the west coast of Sumatra, the south coast of Java, and Bali. Th e methodology for the determination of the hazard zones is based on a multiscenario approach. For the estimation of the population distribution a method is applied that combines statistical data with land use information in order to disaggregate the census data proportionally. Th is approach provides estimates for day- and night-time population in the hazard zones. Th e hazard and exposure maps are provided for the whole coastal regions and, in more detail, for the study areas Padang, Cilacap and Kuta. Moreover, essential key parameters of this analysis are integrated in the Decision Support System of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre.

Optimal design of cryogenic air separation columns under uncertainty

Cryogenic air separation, while widely used in industry, is an energy intensive process. Effective design can improve efficiency and reduce energy consumption, however, uncertainties can make determination of the optimal design difficult. This paper addresses the conceptual design of cryogenic air separation process under uncertainty. A rigorous, highly nonlinear model of three integrated columns is developed to capture the coupled nature of the process. The multi-scenario approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty, giving rise to a nonlinear programming problem with over half a million variables. Nevertheless, this problem is solved efficiently using Ipopt, demonstrating the effectiveness of interior-point methods on complex, large-scale nonlinear programming problems. The optimal design from the multi-scenario approach is compared against the optimal design using nominal parameter values. As expected, the results using the multi-scenario approach are more conservative than the nominal case; however, they may be less conservative than traditional overdesign factors.

Remediation of Heterogeneous Aquifers Subject to Uncertainty

Optimal cost pump-and-treat ground water remediation designs for containment of a contaminated aquifer are often developed using deterministic ground water models to predict ground water flow. Uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity fields used in these models results in remediation designs that are unreliable. The degree to which uncertainty contributes to the reliability of remediation designs as measured by the characterization of the uncertainty is shown to differ depending upon the geologic environments of the models. This conclusion is drawn from the optimal design costs for multiple deterministic models generated to represent the uncertainty of four distinct models with different geologic environments. A multi scenario approach that includes uncertainty into the remediation design called the deterministic method for optimization subject to uncertainty (DMOU) is applied to these distinct models. It is found that the DMOU is a method for determining a remediation design subject to uncertainty that requires minimal postprocessing efforts. Preprocessing, however, is required for the application of the DMOU to unique problems. In the ground water remediation design problems, the orientation of geologic facies with respect to the orientation of flow patterns, pumping well locations, and constraint locations are shown to affect the preprocessing, the solutions to the DMOU problems, and the computational efficiency of the DMOU approach. The results of the DMOU are compared to the results of a statistical analysis of the effects of the uncertainty on remediation designs. This comparison validates the efficacy of the DMOU and illustrates the computational advantages to using the DMOU over statistical measures.

Efficient Groundwater Remediation System Designs with Flow and Concentration Constraints Subject to Uncertainty

A nested optimization problem that utilizes a multiscenario approach based upon a method known as robust optimization is employed to determine a groundwater remediation design that considers the uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity in the flow and transport model. This optimization approach reduces a complicated multiscenario approach to a simple deterministic method for optimization. The parameter values associated with the final deterministic model represent not the true physical model, but rather a model that results in a conservatively designed remediation system that accounts for the uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity. Both flow constraints and concentration constraints are considered in this approach, and as such the optimization problem is nonlinear in both its objective function and its constraints. A search method that combines simulated annealing and a downhill simplex algorithm is used to determine the solution to this optimization problem.

Robust Design of a TCSC Oscillation Damping Controller in a Weak 500-kV Interconnection Considering Multiple Power Flow Scenarios and External Disturbances

The power oscillation damping (POD) controllers implemented in the two thyristor controlled series compensators of the Brazilian North-South (NS) interconnection, in the year 1999, were solely intended to damp the low-frequency NS oscillation mode. These controllers are still under operation and are derived from the modulus of the active power flow in the NS line that is phase-lagged at the frequency of the NS mode and may experience relatively large excursions generated by exogenous disturbances. This paper utilizes the same 1999 data to compare the performance of a proposed robust POD controller design with those of two conventional designs. A recent robust control synthesis algorithm used in this work is based on a nonsmooth optimization technique and has the capability to handle various controller structures, including reduced-order, and to deal with time-domain constraints on both controlled and measured outputs. Moreover, the nonsmooth design technique encompasses multiple operating conditions subject to various test signals, hence building a truly time-domain multi-scenarios approach. According to the results discussed hereafter, this is a key advantage in the industrial context of increasing demand for performance and robustness. The described results relate to a large-scale system model used in the feasibility studies for that interconnection.

Efficient Groundwater Remediation System Design Subject to Uncertainty Using Robust Optimization

Many groundwater remediation designs for contaminant plume containment are developed using mathematically based groundwater flow models. These mathematical models are most effective as predictive tools when the parameters that govern groundwater flow are known with a high degree of certainty. The hydraulic conductivity of an aquifer, however, is uncertain, and so remediation designs developed using models employing one realization of the hydraulic conductivity field have an associated risk of failure of plume containment. To account for model uncertainty attributable to hydraulic conductivity in determining an optimal groundwater remediation design for plume containment, a method of optimization called robust optimization is utilized. This method of optimization is a multiscenario approach whereby multiple hydraulic conductivity fields are examined simultaneously. By examining these fields simultaneously, the variability of the uncertainty is included in the model. To increase the efficiency of the robust...

A Dynamic Network Flow Problem with Uncertain arc Capacities: Formulation and Problem Structure

We consider a dynamic network flow problem where the arc capacities are random variables. This gives a multistage stochastic linear program. We describe the randomness using a multi-scenario approach. Because of the multilayered structure, there are several ways to decompose the linear program. We classify different decomposition schemes, and we develop a scheme called compath decomposition, which is derived from path decomposition for network flows. We give a polynomial-time algorithm to find a cheapest compath that can solve the subproblems resulting from compath decomposition. Finally, compath decomposition is extended to multicommodity flow problems.

Modelling future higher education-labor market imbalances: A multi-scenario approach

In this paper a multi-scenario model is built, in the framework of neoclassical labor market conditions and the human capital theory, that generates multi-value estimates of potential graduate imbalances and gives alternative optimum solutions of full employment and non-optimum solutions with unemployment. The model in fact reflects the impact of the labor market, of individual preferences and of educational changes. Its diversity property provides the possibility of policy choices for reducing imbalances. To demonstrate how the model works in practice we constructed a set of scenarios appropriate to the Greek case, and estimated them by applying a simple time-trend projection technique. By combining the results of these scenarios, a matrix of numerical estimates of potential future graduate imbalances is obtained, and the conditions of alternative optimum solutions and the economically unwarranted social cost of non-optimum solutions are evaluated.

The Perverse Effects of Public Subsidization of Education or How Equitable Is Free Education?

Previous articleNext article No AccessThe Perverse Effects of Public Subsidization of Education or How Equitable Is Free Education?George PsacharopoulosGeorge Psacharopoulos Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Comparative Education Review Volume 21, Number 1Feb., 1977 Sponsored by the Comparative and International Education Society Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/445922 Views: 106Total views on this site Citations: 28Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1977 The Comparative and International Education SocietyPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Nannapaneni Siva Kumar, Mohammad Imdadul Haque A COMPARATIVE REVIEW OF INDIAN AND SAUDI ARABIAN SOCIAL WELFARE SCHEMES, Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews 7, no.55 (Nov 2019): 1200–1209.https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.75159Arup Maharatna Global Crisis in Higher Education: Is Merit Being Trampled by Marketing and Money?, (Jul 2018): 177–202.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0797-3_5Jandhyala B. G. Tilak The Political Economy of Education in India, (Sep 2018): 33–84.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0250-3_2Lloyd Gruber, Stephen Kosack The Tertiary Tilt: Education and Inequality in the Developing World, World Development 54 (Feb 2014): 253–272.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.08.002Emmanuel Jimenez, Harry Anthony Patrinos Curious George: the enduring Psacharopoulos legacy on the economics of education in developing countries, Economics of Education Review 22, no.55 (Oct 2003): 451–454.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-7757(03)00035-9Aysit Tansel, Abbas Kazemi Educational expenditure in the Middle East and North Africa, Middle Eastern Studies 36, no.44 (Oct 2000): 75–98.https://doi.org/10.1080/00263200008701333A. Abdul Salim Factors of educational development-A study of two villages in Kerala, Social Change 30, no.3-43-4 (Aug 2017): 102–122.https://doi.org/10.1177/004908570003000408Maria De Los Angeles Guido Commercialization Trends in Higher Education: The Costa Rican Case, International Journal of Educational Reform 8, no.33 (Jan 2019): 228–243.https://doi.org/10.1177/105678799900800303Shahrukh R. Khan The income redistributional impact of financing higher education in Pakistan, World Development 19, no.99 (Sep 1991): 1241–1246.https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(91)90070-XJandhyala B. G. Tilak The privatization of higher education, Prospects 21, no.22 (Jun 1991): 227–239.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02336063Shahrukh R. Khan Financing higher education in Pakistan, Higher Education 21, no.22 (Mar 1991): 207–222.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00137074Jandhyala B. G. Tilak, N. V. Varghese Financing higher education in India, Higher Education 21, no.11 (Jan 1991): 83–101.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00132343Lynn Ilon, Peter Moock School attributes, household characteristics, and demand for schooling: A case study of rural Peru, International Review of Education 37, no.44 (Jan 1991): 429–451.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00597620Zafiris Tzannatos Reverse racial discrimination in higher education in Malaysia: Has it reduced inequality and at what cost to the poor?, International Journal of Educational Development 11, no.33 (Jan 1991): 177–192.https://doi.org/10.1016/0738-0593(91)90018-4Geoffrey Lungwangwa The Roles and Responsibilities of the Beneficiaries of Higher Education in sub-Saharan Africa, Critical Arts 5, no.44 (Jan 1991): 13–29.https://doi.org/10.1080/02560049285310041Harry Anthony Patrinos The privatization of higher education in Colombia: Effects on quality and equity, Higher Education 20, no.22 (Sep 1990): 161–173.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143699Nicholas P. Glytsos Modelling future higher education-labor market imbalances: A multi-scenario approach, Economics of Education Review 9, no.11 (Jan 1990): 1–23.https://doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(90)90027-3Richard L. Wobbekind, Philip E. Graves International student demand for higher education in the United States, Research in Higher Education 30, no.33 (Jun 1989): 273–299.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992605Nicholas P. Glytsos Reviewing global labor market mismatches of university educated workers, International Journal of Educational Development 9, no.44 (Jan 1989): 299–306.https://doi.org/10.1016/0738-0593(89)90022-9Kiong Hock Lee Universal primary education: An African dilemma, World Development 16, no.1212 (Dec 1988): 1481–1491.https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(88)90221-5Maureen Woodhall Designing a student loan programme for a developing country: the relevance of international experience, Economics of Education Review 7, no.11 (Jan 1988): 153–161.https://doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(88)90079-9M. Woodhall Economics of Education: A Review, (Jan 1987): 1–8.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-033379-3.50008-5GEORGE PSACHAROPOULOS WELFARE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN EDUCATION, Contemporary Economic Policy 4, no.33 (Jul 1986): 51–62.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1986.tb00850.xKiong Hock Lee, Jee Peng Tan The international flow of third level lesser developed country students to developed countries: Determinants and implications, Higher Education 13, no.66 (Dec 1984): 687–707.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00137020William Adrian The tuition dilemma in the Latin American University, International Review of Education 29, no.44 (Jan 1983): 449–464.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00616006Mark Blaug The distributional effects of higher education subsidies, Economics of Education Review 2, no.33 (Jun 1982): 209–231.https://doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(82)90030-9Costas Soumelis Do rates of return matter for public and private educational decisions?, Higher Education 10, no.33 (May 1981): 353–361.https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139566George Psacharopoulos Education, employment and inequality in LDCs, World Development 9, no.11 (Jan 1981): 37–54.https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(81)90075-9