Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Research Articles

Radar-Derived Convective Features and Atmospheric Environments of Hail-Producing Storms over the Contiguous United States

Abstract Hail smaller than 0.75 in. is known to cause economic impacts yet remains understudied due to report biases towards recording larger hail sizes (≤1 in.). In this study, we assembled ground hail reports during 2017–22 from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data, Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), and Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) databases. Then, these reports are collocated with the attributes of radar-derived convective features from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system and fifth major global reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) atmospheric vertical profiles to construct a dataset describing properties of a full spectrum of hailstorms. The characteristics of radar reflectivity and atmospheric profiles are examined for hail of different sizes reported within selected regions over the contiguous United States (CONUS). In addition to the seasonal and diurnal variations, the morphology of convective features shows apparent regional differences from west to east in CONUS. The maximum expected size of hail (MESH) performance against reported hail sizes shows underestimation of hail with significant sizes and overestimation of small hail sizes. ERA5 vertical atmospheric profiles are explored to form relationships between storm environment and hail sizes. In addition to the relationships between wind shear and hail sizes, the roles of low-level relative humidity and freezing level height in regard to hail melting are discussed.

How has the latest IMERG V07 improved the precipitation estimates and hydrologic utility over CONUS against IMERG V06?

Precipitation, a crucial element of the water cycle, significantly impacts surface streamflow and flooding dynamics. The latest version of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07) has garnered global attention for its advancements over its predecessor, IMERG V06. However, the improvement in precipitation rates has not yet been fully quantified, especially when translated into improvements in hydrologic predictions. In this study, we aim to quantify the improvements of IMERG V07 over V06 in the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the aspects of (1) Evaluating the accuracy of precipitation data against Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS); and (2) Comparing their hydrologic performance using a hydrologic model, the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST), against United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages. This study mainly finds that: (1) Metrics for both precipitation and streamflow from CREST show that IMERG V07 significantly outperforms IMERG V06. Specifically, the CC improved from 0.391 to 0.443 for precipitation and from 0.487 to 0.515 for streamflow; (2) The improvements in IMERG V07 are region-dependent. Significant improvements are found in basins with small areas (< 1000 km2), in mid-latitudes (41° N to 43° N), at low average elevations (< 800 m), and those located in the northeastern CONUS; (3) In certain cases, IMERG V07 demonstrates a better capability in estimating extreme precipitation, whereas IMERG V06 tends to underestimate it. This is also reflected in the streamflow data, where IMERG V07 better captures flood peaks compared to IMERG V06. This research enhances our understanding of flood dynamics by analyzing IMERG V07′s advancements and their effects on hydrologic predictions. It offers valuable insights into improved precipitation data’s role in hydrological modeling, giving potential benefits for simulating better flood prediction and helping in water management.

Analysis and Prediction of Summer Rainfall over Southwestern Utah

Abstract While many studies have examined intense rainfall and flash flooding during the North American monsoon (NAM) in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico, less attention has focused on the NAM’s extension into southwestern Utah. This study relates flash flood reports and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation across southwestern Utah to atmospheric moisture content and instability analyses and forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during the 2021–23 monsoon seasons. MRMS quantitative precipitation estimates over southwestern Utah during the summer depend largely on the areal coverage from the KICX WSR-88D radar near Cedar City, Utah. Those estimates are generally consistent with the limited number of precipitation gauge reports in the region except at extended distances from the radar. A strong relationship is evident between days with widespread precipitation and afternoons with above-average precipitable water (PWAT) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) estimated from HRRR analyses across the region. Time-lagged ensembles of HRRR forecasts (initialization times from 0300 to 0600 UTC) that are 13–18 h prior to the afternoon period when convection is initiating (1800–2100 UTC) are useful for situational awareness of widespread precipitation events after adjusting for underprediction of afternoon CAPE. Improved skill is possible using random forest classification relying only on PWAT and CAPE to predict days experiencing excessive (upper quartile) precipitation. Such HRRR predictions may be useful for forecasters at the Salt Lake City National Weather Service Forecast Office to assist in issuing flash flood potential statements for visitors to national parks and other recreational areas in the region. Significance Statement Summer flash floods in southwestern Utah are a risk to area residents and millions of visitors annually to the region’s national parks, monuments, and recreational areas. The likelihood of flash floods within the region’s catchments depends on the intense afternoon and early evening convection initiated by lift and instability primarily due to terrain–flow interactions over elevated plateaus and mountains. Forecasts at lead times of 13–18 h of moisture and instability from the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model have the potential to predict summer afternoons that are likely to have increased risks for higher rainfall amounts across southwestern Utah, although they are not expected to predict the likelihood of flash floods in any specific locale.

Evaluation of Wintertime Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts in the Mountains of Colorado

Abstract Wintertime precipitation poses many observational and forecasting challenges, especially in the complex topography of the western United States where radar beam blockage and difficulty siting in situ observations yields more sparse observations than in the eastern United States. Uncertainty in western U.S. winter precipitation is known to be high, so much so that some studies have found model simulated precipitation to produce similar or better large-scale estimates of annual precipitation than gridded observational products during climatologically anomalous years. This study evaluates high-resolution gridded precipitation estimates from Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) and Stage IV as well as forecasts from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Gridded precipitation estimates and forecasts are compared with in situ SNOTEL measurements for two seasons of wintertime precipitation. The influence of forecast length, lead time, and model elevation on seasonal precipitation predictions from the HRRR are investigated. Additional comparisons are made with the relatively dense network of observations deployed in Colorado’s East River Watershed during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaign. Gridded products and forecasts are found to underestimate cold-season precipitation by 25%–65% relative to in situ and aircraft measurements, with longer forecast periods and lead times (6–24 h) having smaller biases (25%–30%) than shorter forecast periods and lead times (55%–65%). The assessment of multiple years of observations indicates that these biases are related more to the data and methods used to create the gridded products and forecasts than to precipitation characteristics. Significance Statement In the mountainous western United States, it is very challenging to both observe and forecast wintertime precipitation, yet snowfall plays an important role in providing the region’s annual water supply. This study aims to increase our understanding of the biases in observations and forecasts of snowfall in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, which can in turn impact forecasts of water availability for the ensuing warm season. In this study we find high-resolution gridded precipitation estimates and forecasts to underestimate cold-season precipitation when compared with in situ observing stations, with longer-range forecasts (e.g., daily) being the least biased. These findings were consistent over two years of study and have broad implications for the hydrologic modeling and water management communities.

Validating GOES Radar Estimation via Machine Learning to Inform NWP (GREMLIN) Product over CONUS

Abstract Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Radar Estimation via Machine Learning to Inform NWP (GREMLIN) is a machine learning model that outputs composite reflectivity using GOES-R Series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) input data. GREMLIN is useful for observing severe weather and initializing convection for short-term forecasts, especially over regions without ground-based radars. This study expands the evaluation of GREMLIN’s accuracy against the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System to the entire contiguous United States (CONUS) for the entire annual cycle. Regional and temporal variation of validation metrics are examined over CONUS by season, day of year, and time of day. Since GREMLIN was trained with data in spring and summer, root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and bias are lowest in the order of summer, spring, fall, and winter. In summer, diurnal patterns of RMSD follow those of precipitation occurrence. Winter has the highest RMSD because of cold surfaces mistaken as precipitating clouds, but some of these errors can be removed by applying the ABI clear-sky mask product and correcting biases using a lookup table. In GREMLIN, strong echoes are closely related to the existence of lightning and corresponding low brightness temperatures, which result in different error distributions over different regions of CONUS. This leads to negative biases in cold seasons over Washington State, lower 30-dBZ critical success index caused by high misses over the Northeast, and higher false alarms over Florida that are due to higher frequency of lightning.

Precipitation Vertical Structure Characterization: A Feature-Based Approach

Abstract The three-dimensional (3D) structure of precipitation systems is highly dependent on hydrometeor formation processes and microphysics. This study aims to characterize distinct vertical profiles of precipitation regimes by relying on the availability of a high-quality, spatially dense radar network and its capability to observe the 3D structure of the storms. A deep-learning-based framework, coupled with unsupervised clustering methods, is developed to identify types of precipitation structures irrespective of their physical properties. A 6-month period of 3D reflectivity profiles from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) network is used to identify different regimes and investigate their properties with respect to the underlying environmental conditions. Dominant features retrieved from radar reflectivity profiles using convolutional neural-network-based autoencoders are employed to identify similar-looking vertical structures using coupled k-means and agglomerative clustering algorithms. The k-means method identifies distinct groups, while the agglomerative clustering visualizes intercluster relationships. The framework identifies 18 clusters that can be broadly combined into five groups of varied echo-top heights. The 18 clusters demonstrate variability with respect to structural features and precipitation rate/type, implying that profiles in each group belong to a physically different precipitation regime. An independent analysis of the regime properties is conducted by matching the MRMS reflectivity profiles with environmental parameters derived from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model forecasts. The distribution of the environmental variables confirms cluster-specific feature properties, confirming the physics-based regime separation across the clusters and their dependence on the vertical structure. The identified precipitation regimes can assist in developing physics-guided retrievals and studying precipitation regimes. Significance Statement This study proposes a systematic model to identify precipitation profiles of distinct vertical structures and evaluate their dependence on environmental conditions. The model was developed using ground-based radar observations; however, there is potential to extend this model to reflectivity profiles from both ground- and satellite-based sensors. In addition, the identified precipitation regime clusters could be a proxy for the vertical structure of precipitation systems and assist in determining the structural variability within traditional precipitation type classification (e.g., convective versus stratiform). Moreover, identifying the precipitation regimes could also be used to improve satellite-based precipitation retrievals. Finally, a better understanding of precipitation structure would also help improve the initialization of climate models.

Forecast Applications of GLM Gridded Products: A Data Fusion Perspective

Abstract The recently deployed GOES-R series Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) provides forecasters with a new, rapidly updating lightning data source to diagnose, forecast, and monitor atmospheric convection. Gridded GLM products have been developed to improve operational forecast applications, with variables including flash extent density (FED), minimum flash area (MFA), and total optical energy (TOE). While these gridded products have been evaluated, there is a continual need to integrate these products with other datasets available to forecasters such as radar, satellite imagery, and ground-based lightning networks. Data from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, and one ground-based lightning network were compared against gridded GLM imagery from GOES-East and GOES-West in case studies of two supercell thunderstorms, along with a bulk study from 13 April to 31 May 2019, to provide further validation and applications of gridded GLM products from a data fusion perspective. Increasing FED and decreasing MFA corresponded with increasing thunderstorm intensity from the perspective of ABI infrared imagery and MRMS vertically integrated reflectivity products, and was apparent for more robust and severe convection. Flash areas were also observed to maximize between clean-IR brightness temperatures of 210–230 K and isothermal reflectivity at −10°C of 20–30 dBZ. TOE observations from both GLMs provided additional context of local GLM flash rates in each case study, due to their differing perspectives of convective updrafts. Significance Statement The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a lightning sensor on the current generation of U.S. weather satellites. This research shows how data from the space-based lightning sensor can be combined with radar, satellite imagery, and ground-based lightning networks to improve how forecasters monitor thunderstorms and issue warnings for severe weather. The rate of GLM flashes detected and the area they cover correspond well with radar and satellite signatures, especially in cases of intense and severe thunderstorms. When the GLM observes the same thunderstorm from the GOES-East and GOES-West satellites, the optical energy (brightness) of the flashes may help forecasters interpret the types of flashes observed from each sensor.

The Development and Initial Capabilities of ThunderCast, a Deep Learning Model for Thunderstorm Nowcasting in the United States

Abstract This paper presents the Thunderstorm Nowcasting Tool (ThunderCast), a 24-h, year-round model for predicting the location of convection that is likely to initiate or remain a thunderstorm in the next 0–60 min in the continental United States, adapted from existing deep learning convection applications. ThunderCast utilizes a U-Net convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation trained on 320 km × 320 km data patches with four inputs and one target dataset. The inputs are satellite bands from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in the visible, shortwave infrared, and longwave infrared spectra, and the target is Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar reflectivity at the −10°C isotherm in the atmosphere. On a pixel-by-pixel basis, ThunderCast has high accuracy, recall, and specificity but is subject to false-positive predictions resulting in low precision. However, the number of false positives decreases when buffering the target values with a 15 km × 15 km centered window, indicating ThunderCast’s predictions are useful within a buffered area. To demonstrate the initial prediction capabilities of ThunderCast, three case studies are presented: a mesoscale convective vortex, sea-breeze convection, and monsoonal convection in the southwestern United States. The case studies illustrate that the ThunderCast model effectively nowcasts the location of newly initiated and ongoing active convection, within the next 60 min, under a variety of geographical and meteorological conditions. Significance Statement In this research, a machine learning model is developed for short-term (0–60 min) forecasting of thunderstorms in the continental United States using geostationary satellite imagery as inputs for predicting active convection based on radar thresholds. Pending additional testing, the model may be able to provide decision-support services for thunderstorm forecasting. The case studies presented here indicate the model is able to nowcast convective initiation with 5–35 min of lead time in areas without radar coverage and anticipate future locations of storms without additional environmental context.

Intercomparison between Ground-Based and Spaceborne Radars’ Echo-Top Heights: Application to the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and the Global Precipitation Measurement

Abstract The accuracy and uncertainty of radar echo-top heights estimated by ground-based radars remain largely unknown despite their critical importance for applications ranging from aviation weather forecasting to severe weather diagnosis. Because the vantage point of space is more suited than that of ground-based radars for the estimation of echo-top heights, the use of spaceborne radar observations is explored as an external reference for cross comparison. An investigation has been carried out across the conterminous United States by comparing the NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system with the space-based radar on board the NASA–JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement satellite platform. No major bias was assessed between the two products. An annual cycle of differences is found, driven by an underestimation of the stratiform cloud echo-top heights and an overestimation of the convective ones. The investigation of the systematic biases for different radar volume coverage patterns (VCP) shows that scanning strategies with fewer tilts and greater voids as VCP 21/121/221 contribute to overestimations observed for high MRMS tops. For VCP 12/212, the automated volume scan evaluation and termination (AVSET) function increases the radar cone of silence, causing overestimations when the echo top lies above the highest elevation scan. However, it seems that for low echo tops the shorter refresh rates contribute to mitigate underestimations, especially in stratiform cases.

A Nowcasting Approach for Low-Earth-Orbiting Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings within the Convective Environment

Abstract Low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant yet untapped potential for characterizing thermodynamic environments of convective initiation and ongoing convection. While LEO soundings are of value to weather forecasters, the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving thermodynamics of the convective environment is limited. We have developed a novel nowcasting methodology to extend snapshots of LEO soundings forward in time up to 6 h to create a product available within National Weather Service systems for user assessment. Our methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite-observing time to generate future soundings of temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. The soundings are based on NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) retrievals from the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and NOAA-20 satellite platforms. The tendencies of derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) are evaluated against gridded, hourly accumulated rainfall obtained from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) observations for 24 hand-selected cases over the contiguous United States. Areas with forecast increases in CAPE (reduced CIN) are shown to be associated with areas of precipitation. The increases in CAPE and decreases in CIN are largest for areas that have the heaviest precipitation and are statistically significant compared to areas without precipitation. These results imply that adiabatic parcel advection of LEO satellite sounding snapshots forward in time are capable of identifying convective initiation over an expanded temporal scale compared to soundings used only during the LEO satellite overpass time. Significance Statement Advection of low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellite observations of temperature and specific humidity forward in time exhibits skill in determining where and when convection eventually initiates. This approach provides a foundation for a new nowcasting methodology leveraging thermodynamic soundings derived from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders on LEO satellite platforms. This method may be useful for creating time-resolved soundings with the constellation of LEO satellites until hyperspectral infrared soundings are widely available from geostationary platforms.

Quantifying the Relationship between Embedded Rotation and Extreme Rainfall Rates in Observations of Tropical Storm Imelda (2019)

Abstract Previous work on continental convective systems has indicated that there is a positive relationship between short-term rainfall rates and storm-scale to mesoscale rotation. However, little has been done to explore this relationship in dense observing networks or in landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) environments. In an effort to quantify the relationship between rainfall rates and embedded rotation of this scale, we use several sets of observations that were collected during Tropical Storm Imelda (2019). First, a meteorological overview of the event is presented, and the ingredients that led to its flash flood–producing rainfall are discussed. Then, two analyses that investigate the relationship between rainfall rates and storm-scale to mesoscale rotation in the LTC remnants are examined. The first method relies on products from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system, where two spatial averaging approaches are applied to the 0–2-km accumulated rotation track and gauge bias-corrected quantitative precipitation estimate products over hourly time periods. Using these fields as proxies for rotation and rain rates, the results show a positive spatiotemporal relationship between the two products. The second method time matches subjectively identified radar-based rotation and 5-min surface rain gauge observations. There, we show that nearly twice the amount of rain was recorded by the gauges when storm-scale to mesoscale rotation was present nearby, and the differences in 5-min rainfall observations between when rotation was present versus not was statistically significant. Together, these results indicate that more rain tended to fall in locations where there was rotation embedded in the system. Significance Statement Tornadoes and flash floods frequently occur in unison over the same locations, which can complicate forecasting, warning, and communication efforts within the meteorology community. Previous work has furthered the understanding of the interconnectedness of these hazards by suggesting a relationship between two of their predecessors: storm rotation and rainfall rates. We build on this research by quantifying the relationship of these two processes using observations from Tropical Storm Imelda: a system that brought devastating flooding to southeast Texas in September 2019. Our results show across multiple observational datasets that more rain tended to fall in locations where there was rotation embedded in the tropical storm remnants.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Improve Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Precipitation Estimates in the Western United States

Abstract The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system produces a suite of hydrometeorological products that are widely used for applications such as flash flood warning operations, water resource management, and climatological studies. The MRMS radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products have greater challenges in the western United States compared to the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS due to terrain-related blockages and gaps in radar coverage. Further, orographic enhancement of precipitation often occurs, which is highly variable in space and time and difficult to accurately capture with physically based approaches. A deep learning approach was applied in this study to understand the correlations between several interacting variables and to obtain a more accurate precipitation estimation in these scenarios. The model presented here is a convolutional neural network (CNN), which uses spatial information from small grids of several radar variables to predict an estimated precipitation value at the central grid point. Several case analyses are presented along with a yearlong statistical evaluation. The CNN model 24-h QPE shows higher accuracy than the MRMS radar QPE for several cool season atmospheric river events. Areas of consistent improvement from the CNN model are highlighted in the discussion along with areas where the model can be further improved. The initial findings from this work help set the foundation for further exploration of machine learning techniques and products for precipitation estimation as part of the MRMS operational system. Significance Statement This study explores the development and use of a deep learning model to generate precipitation fields in the complex terrain of the western United States. Generally, the model is able to improve on the statistical performance of existing radar-based precipitation estimation methods for several case studies and over a long-term period in 2021. We explore the patterns associated with certain areas of strong performance and suggest potential means of improving areas with weaker performance. These initial results indicate the potential of deep learning to supplement radar-based approaches in areas with observational limitations.

Dual-Pol VPR Corrections for Improved Operational Radar QPE in MRMS

Abstract The radar bright band is caused by melting ice crystals, and results in inflated reflectivity observations. If uncorrected, the bright band can result in large errors in radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). In the operational Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system up to version 12.1, the effects of the bright band are corrected through the use of a reflectivity-only, tilt-based apparent vertical profile of reflectivity (tilt-VPR). This study utilizes dual-polarization (dual-pol) radar observations to improve the tilt-VPR methodology. To accomplish this, a brightband area delineation was developed within the MRMS framework and the brightband top and bottom heights were identified for individual tilts of radar data. This information was used to develop a radially dependent dual-pol VPR (dpVPR) model that can better correct reflectivity in situations of nonisotropic bright bands and low brightband events. This algorithm has been tested on 14 varying brightband events across the CONUS and compared with the tilt-VPR and the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler Level-3 Digital Precipitation Rate (DPR) products. The radially dependent dpVPR correction provided a more accurate detection of brightband areas and a more effective reduction in QPE errors within and above the bright band than the tilt-VPR and DPR QPEs, especially for precipitation events with low melting layers or with strong variability of vertical motions. The brightband delineation and dpVPR methodology are also evaluated in the real-time MRMS testbed for their robustness and computational efficiency and has been transitioned into operations in 2022.

Impact of the Alamosa gap-filling radar on streamflow in the National Water Model

The installation of the Alamosa gap-filling radar in 2019 not only greatly improved surveillance of current precipitation in the mountain-ringed San Luis valley, but also improved estimates of rain and snow accumulation. This is particularly important for hydrological prediction in this headwaters region, as it provides vital information for potential downstream floods and reservoir storage. This study performs three experiments using the community WRF-Hydro modeling system (the core model of the National Water Model) during 2021 to estimate the effect of the new Alamosa gap-filling radar, as integrated into the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi-radar Multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimate product on model-predicted streamflow. The first model experiment utilizes the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor data, including from the new Alamosa radar; the second utilizes a spatially-downscaled version of the NLDAS-2 precipitation field, mapped to a high resolution WRF-Hydro model grid; while the third experiment uses a combination of the two, with MRMS used in areas observed by the Alamosa radar. Emphasis is placed on analyzing the impact of the radar quantitative precipitation estimate on total seasonal runoff in the Conejos River basin and overall runoff throughout the Upper Rio Grande River basin in southern Colorado.

Toward a Globally-Applicable Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Satellite Multisensor Precipitation Products Based on GPM DPR

The usefulness of satellite multisensor precipitation products such as NASA’s 30-min, 0.1° Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) is hindered by their associated errors. Reliable estimates of uncertainty would mitigate this limitation, especially in near-real time when gauge observations are not available. However, creating such estimates is challenging, due to both the complicated nature of satellite precipitation errors and the lack of “ground-truth” data precisely in the places—including oceans, complex terrain, and developing countries—that could benefit most from satellite precipitation estimates. In this work, we use the GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR)-derived swath-based precipitation products as an alternative to ground-based observations to facilitate IMERG uncertainty estimation. We compare the suitability of two DPR-derived precipitation products, 2ADPR and 2BCMB, against higher fidelity ground validation multiradar multisensor (GV-MRMS) ground reference data over the contiguous United States. The 2BCMB is selected to train error models based on censored shifted gamma distribution (CSGD; a mixed discrete-continuous probability distribution). Uncertainty estimates from these models are compared against alternative error models trained on GV-MRMS. Using information from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, we also demonstrate how IMERG uncertainty estimates can be further constrained using additional precipitation-related predictors. Though several critical issues remain unresolved, the proposed method shows promise for yielding robust uncertainty estimates in near-real time for IMERG and other similar precipitation products at their native resolution across the entire globe.

Performance of New Near-Real-Time PERSIANN Product (PDIR-Now) for Atmospheric River Events over the Russian River Basin, California

Abstract Most heavy precipitation events and extreme flooding over the U.S. Pacific coast can be linked to prevalent atmospheric river (AR) conditions. Thus, reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for water management and early warning systems of flooding and landslides over these regions. At the same time, high-quality near-real-time measurements of AR precipitation remain challenging due to the complex topographic features of land surface and meteorological conditions of the region: specifically, orographic features occlude radar measurements while infrared-based algorithms face challenges, differentiating between both cold brightband (BB) precipitation and the warmer nonbrightband (NBB) precipitation. It should be noted that the latter precipitation is characterized by greater orographic enhancement. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed near-real-time satellite precipitation algorithm: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate-Now (PDIR-Now). This model is primarily dependent on infrared information from geostationary satellites as input; consequently, PDIR-Now has the advantage of short data latency, 15–60-min delay between observation to precipitation product delivery. The performance of PDIR-Now is analyzed with a focus on AR-related events for cases dominated by NBB and BB precipitation over the Russian River basin. In our investigations, we utilize S-band (3-GHz) precipitation profilers with Joss/Parsivel disdrometer measurements at the Middletown and Santa Rosa stations to classify BB and NBB precipitation events. In general, our analysis shows that PDIR-Now is more skillful in retrieving precipitation rates over both BB and NBB events across the topologically complex study area as compared to PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS). Also, we discuss the performance of well-known operational near-real-time precipitation products from 2017 to 2019. Conventional categorical and volumetric categorical indices, as well as continuous statistical metrics, are used to show the differences between various high-resolution precipitation products such as Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS).

Radar Retrieval Evaluation and Investigation of Dendritic Growth Layer Polarimetric Signatures in a Winter Storm

Abstract This study evaluates ice particle size distribution and aspect ratio φ Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dual-polarization radar retrievals through a direct comparison with two legs of observational aircraft data obtained during a winter storm case from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. In situ cloud probes, satellite, and MRMS observations illustrate that the often-observed Kdp and ZDR enhancement regions in the dendritic growth layer can either indicate a local number concentration increase of dry ice particles or the presence of ice particles mixed with a significant number of supercooled liquid droplets. Relative to in situ measurements, MRMS retrievals on average underestimated mean volume diameters by 50% and overestimated number concentrations by over 100%. IWC retrievals using ZDR and Kdp within the dendritic growth layer were minimally biased relative to in situ calculations where retrievals yielded −2% median relative error for the entire aircraft leg. Incorporating φ retrievals decreased both the magnitude and spread of polarimetric retrievals below the dendritic growth layer. While φ radar retrievals suggest that observed dendritic growth layer particles were nonspherical (0.1 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), in situ projected aspect ratios, idealized numerical simulations, and habit classifications from cloud probe images suggest that the population mean φ was generally much higher. Coordinated aircraft radar reflectivity with in situ observations suggests that the MRMS systematically underestimated reflectivity and could not resolve local peaks in mean volume diameter sizes. These results highlight the need to consider particle assumptions and radar limitations when performing retrievals. significance statement Developing snow is often detectable using weather radars. Meteorologists combine these radar measurements with mathematical equations to study how snow forms in order to determine how much snow will fall. This study evaluates current methods for estimating the total number and mass, sizes, and shapes of snowflakes from radar using images of individual snowflakes taken during two aircraft legs. Radar estimates of snowflake properties were most consistent with aircraft data inside regions with prominent radar signatures. However, radar estimates of snowflake shapes were not consistent with observed shapes estimated from the snowflake images. Although additional research is needed, these results bolster understanding of snow-growth physics and uncertainties between radar measurements and snow production that can improve future snowfall forecasting.

Quantification of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System Accuracy by Storm Age Using Object-Based Verification

Abstract The National Severe Storm Laboratory’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a convection-allowing ensemble with rapidly cycled data assimilation (DA) of various satellite and radar datasets designed for prediction at 0–6-h lead time of hazardous weather. With the focus on short lead times, WoFS predictive accuracy is strongly dependent on its ability to accurately initialize and depict the evolution of ongoing storms. Since it takes multiple DA cycles to fully “spin up” ongoing storms, predictive skill is likely a function of storm age at the time of model initialization, meaning that older storms that have been through several DA cycles will be forecast with greater accuracy than newer storms that initiate just before model initialization or at any point after. To quantify this relationship, we apply an object-based spatial tracking and verification approach to map differences in the probability of detection (POD), in space–time, of predicted storm objects from WoFS with respect to Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) reflectivity objects. Object-tracking/matching statistics are computed for all suitable and available WoFS cases from 2017 to 2021. Our results indicate sharply increasing POD with increasing storm age for lead times within 3 h. PODs were about 0.3 for storm objects that emerge 2–3 h after model initialization, while for storm objects that were at least an hour old at the time of model initialization by DA, PODs ranged from around 0.7 to 0.9 depending on the lead time. These results should aid in forecaster interpretation of WoFS, as well as guide WoFS developers on improving the model and DA system. Significance Statement The Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a collection of weather models designed to predict individual thunderstorms. Before the models can predict storms, they must ingest radar and satellite observations to put existing storms into the models. Because storms develop at different times, more observations will exist for some storms in the model domain than others, which results in WoFS forecasts with different accuracy for different storms. This paper estimates the differences in accuracy for storms that have existed for a long time and those that have not by tracking observed and predicted storms. We find that the likelihood of WoFS accurately predicting a thunderstorm nearly doubles if the storm has existed for over an hour prior to the forecast. Understanding this relationship between storm age and forecast accuracy will help forecasters better use WoFS predictions and guide future research to improve WoFS forecasts.

Polarimetric Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation

Radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the primary tasks of weather radars. The QPE quality was substantially improved after polarimetric upgrade of the radars. This study provides an overview of existing polarimetric methodologies for rain and snow estimation and their operational implementation. The variability of drop size distributions (DSDs) is a primary factor affecting the quality of rainfall estimation and its impact on the performance of various radar rainfall relations at S, C, and X microwave frequency bands is one of the focuses of this review. The radar rainfall estimation algorithms based on the use of specific attenuation A and specific differential phase KDP are the most efficient. Their brief description is presented and possible ways for their further optimization are discussed. Polarimetric techniques for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) correction at longer distances from the radar are also summarized. Radar quantification of snow is particularly challenging and it is demonstrated that polarimetric methods for snow measurements show good promise. Finally, the article presents a summary of the latest operational radar QPE products available in the US by integration of the information from the WSR-88D radars via the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) platform.

Comprehensive Radar Data for the Contiguous United States: Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms

Abstract The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS) dataset blends radar data from the WSR-88D network and Near-Storm Environmental (NSE) model analyses using the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) framework. The MYRORSS dataset uses the WSR-88D archive starting in 1998–2011, processing all valid single-radar volumes to produce a seamless three-dimensional reflectivity volume over the entire contiguous United States with an approximate 5-min update frequency. The three-dimensional grid has an approximate 1 km × 1 km horizontal dimension and is on a stretched vertical grid that extends to 20 km MSL with a maximal vertical spacing of 1 km. Several reflectivity-derived, severe-storm-related products are also produced, which leverage the ability to merge the MRMS and NSE data. Two Doppler velocity-derived azimuthal shear layer maximum products are produced at a higher horizontal resolution of approximately 0.5 km × 0.5 km. The initial period of record for the dataset is 1998–2011. The dataset underwent intensive manual quality control to ensure that all available and valid data were included while excluding highly problematic radar volumes that were a negligible percentage of the overall dataset, but which caused large data errors in some cases. This dataset has applications toward radar-based climatologies, postevent analysis, machine learning applications, model verification, and warning improvements. Details of the manual quality control process are included and examples of some of these applications are presented.