Toward a Globally-Applicable Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Satellite Multisensor Precipitation Products Based on GPM DPR

Abstract

The usefulness of satellite multisensor precipitation products such as NASA’s 30-min, 0.1° Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) is hindered by their associated errors. Reliable estimates of uncertainty would mitigate this limitation, especially in near-real time when gauge observations are not available. However, creating such estimates is challenging, due to both the complicated nature of satellite precipitation errors and the lack of “ground-truth” data precisely in the places—including oceans, complex terrain, and developing countries—that could benefit most from satellite precipitation estimates. In this work, we use the GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR)-derived swath-based precipitation products as an alternative to ground-based observations to facilitate IMERG uncertainty estimation. We compare the suitability of two DPR-derived precipitation products, 2ADPR and 2BCMB, against higher fidelity ground validation multiradar multisensor (GV-MRMS) ground reference data over the contiguous United States. The 2BCMB is selected to train error models based on censored shifted gamma distribution (CSGD; a mixed discrete-continuous probability distribution). Uncertainty estimates from these models are compared against alternative error models trained on GV-MRMS. Using information from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, we also demonstrate how IMERG uncertainty estimates can be further constrained using additional precipitation-related predictors. Though several critical issues remain unresolved, the proposed method shows promise for yielding robust uncertainty estimates in near-real time for IMERG and other similar precipitation products at their native resolution across the entire globe.