Trends In Mortality Research Articles

The Cardiovascular Disease Burden Associated with secondhand smoke, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Abstract Background Over the past three decades, global regions have shown significant differences in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and secondhand smoke is a major risk factor contributing to this burden. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the global trends and associations between second-hand smoke and cardiovascular disease is lacking. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2019, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was conducted to investigate trends in cardiovascular disease-related mortality in populations affected by secondhand smoke globally over the past 30 years and its association with age, period, and birth cohort. Results Over the past 30 years, the number of cardiovascular deaths caused by secondhand smoke has increased significantly worldwide, from 432.6 thousand in 1990 (95% UI: 357.4-508.3) to 598.5 thousand in 2019 (95% UI: 489.7-713.5), an increase of 38.4% (95% UI: 26.8%-49.5%). In 2019, cardiovascular disease accounted for 45.9% of all deaths attributable to secondhand smoke in both men and women globally. Among cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart disease became the main component, accounting for 66.4% compared with stroke. The gender composition of cardiovascular deaths due to secondhand smoke is slightly lower in men (46.5%) than in women (53.5%). Longitudinal analyses using age-time-cohort models show that global CVD-related mortality from secondhand smoke has improved overall over the past three decades, but there are differences between regions, genders, and CVD subtypes. It is worth noting that the higher the socio-demographic index (SDI) level, the greater the reduction in mortality, with a staggering 39.1% reduction in high SDI areas (95% UI: 35.6%-42.3%), in sharp contrast to virtually no change in mortality in low SDI areas (0.1% (95% UI: -52.4%-62.2%)). During the period 2003-2007, cardiovascular disease-related mortality decreased significantly, with an average annual percentage change of -1.48%. Conclusion The study highlights the importance of using secondhand smoke as a modifiable risk factor for the global burden of cardiovascular disease. Further research is vital to understand the factors that lead to differences in countries and regions at different levels of development, gender differences and differences in cardiovascular disease subtypes.

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality among Japanese community-dwelling adults

Abstract Background Long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μm or smaller) is a risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular disease including stroke. However, there was limited evidence for the association between PM2.5 exposure and stroke in Asia where the major cardiovascular disease is stroke. Additionally, the causal association between PM2.5 and respiratory disease is still unresolved. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease mortality in a Japanese community-based prospective cohort. Methods This study included 46,974 participants (19,707 men; 27,267 women) from the second cohort of the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study. The participants were followed up from baseline survey (in 2009) to 31 December 2019. We confirmed underlying causes by death certificates. Using the PM2.5 concentrations estimated by the inverse distance weighting methods based on ambient air monitoring data, administrative area level concentrations were assigned to each participant. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of mortality using a Cox proportional hazard model were presented. Results We identified 2,789 all-cause deaths during the 470,178 person-years of follow-up. PM2.5 exposure had no significant association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The multivariable-adjusted HRs per 1 μg/m3 increase in the PM2.5 concentration were 0.94 (95% CI = 0.80-1.12) for coronary heart disease, 0.92 (95% CI = 0.81-1.04) for stroke and 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97-1.23) for non-malignant respiratory disease. Conclusions We observed little evidence of increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by long-term exposure to PM2.5 whose concentrations ranged from 8.3 to 13.1 μg/m3. A somewhat increased trend for non-malignant respiratory disease mortality may not be negligible. Key messages • We found little evidence of increased risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by long-term exposure to PM2.5. • Somewhat increased tendency for non-malignant respiratory disease mortality associated with PM2.5 exposure was observed.

Association of culprit lesions with in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome complicated by cardiogenic Shock

Abstract Background/Introduction The Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) shock stage is useful for stratifying short-term prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, the impact of culprit lesion location for ACS on prognostic stratification by the SCAI shock stage remains insufficiently elucidated. Purpose This study aims to investigate the association between culprit lesion location for ACS and shock severity on in-hospital mortality. Methods We retrospectively investigated consecutive ACS patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention at a single center between January 2014 and October 2023. Patients were classified into five groups (No risk, Stage A, Stage B, Stage C, and Stage E) based on data at arrival in the emergency department using SCAI classification. The following culprit lesions were included in this analysis: left main coronary artery (LMCA), proximal right coronary artery (RCA), proximal left anterior descending artery (LAD), and proximal left circumflex artery (LCX). Results Of 1,665 patients included in the analysis, the mean age was 72±12 years, and females accounted for 26% overall. The distribution of SCAI shock stages by culprit lesions is shown in Figure 1. The proportion of stage B or higher in the LMCA, RCA, LAD, and LCX was 41%, 23%, 24%, and 24%, respectively. The corresponding in-hospital mortality was 20%, 3%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. The trend of in-hospital mortality stratified by shock severity and culprit lesions is demonstrated in Figure 2. LMCA and LAD showed increased in-hospital mortality with progressing shock severity. In contrast, this trend was not observed for RCA and LCX. Conclusions Except for LMCA, the proportion of shock stage B or higher was comparable. SCAI shock stage classification was useful in stratifying in-hospital mortality in patients where culprit lesions for ACS were LMCA and proximal LAD. Conversely, its validity in those with proximal RCA and LCX may be limited.

Trends in intracardiac thrombus formation in myocardial infarction patients after PCI: a nationwide analysis

Abstract Background Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) have become a crucial therapeutic option for myocardial infarction (MI) patients. However, the clinical outcomes and complications associated with PCI, especially in relation to intracardiac thrombus, remain a subject of concern. Purpose We aimed to examine the real-world clinical outcomes and temporal trends of in-hospital mortality and intracardiac thrombus among myocardial infarction patients treated with PCI between 2017 and 2020. Methods The National Inpatient Sample was queried from 2017 to 2020 to identify all adults with myocardial infarction (ST elevation and Non-ST elevation MI) who underwent PCI using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes. The Cochran-Armitage test assessed the linear trend of in-hospital intracardiac thrombus and mortality. Multivariable regression analysis was conducted to assess the association of PCI with in-hospital mortality and intracardiac thrombus. The Charlson comorbidity index was used to adjust for confounders. Results are represented as adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with their respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Of the 1,394,650 patients who underwent PCI, 8,080 (0.58%) experienced intracardiac thrombus, with a mean age of 62, predominantly male (76%). Despite decreasing rates of PCI noted over this 4-year period (Figure 1). There was an upward trend in in-hospital intracardiac thrombus revealed over a 4-year period (trend: 0.54%, p < 0.001). PCI was associated with a yearly increase in intracardiac thrombus in 2018 in 0.54% of patients (OR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6, p < 0.001). In 2019, 0.56% of patients experienced intracardiac thrombus (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6, p = 0.001); in 2020, 0.72% of patients (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.1, p = 0.008), compared to 2017 (0.4%). Mortality rates for PCI and ICT patients were 6% in 2017 (OR 2.2, p < 0.001, 95% CI 1.4-3.2), decreased to 5% in 2018 (OR 1.8, p < 0.004, 95% CI 1.2-2.6) and 4.7% in 2019 (OR 1.6, p < 0.01, 95% CI 1.1-2.4), then rose to 6.6% in 2020 (OR 2, 95% CI 1.4-2.8) (Table 1). Overall, in-hospital mortality was 5.6% (OR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9, p < 0.001) among patients who had intracardiac thrombus related to PCI. Conclusions Our findings indicate a significant increase in intracardiac thrombus rates among MI patients treated with PCI from 2017 to 2020, accompanied by a considerable risk of in-hospital mortality. These outcomes underscore the critical need for vigilant monitoring and enhanced management approaches in this patient demographic.Figure 1Table 1

Territorial health inequalities in breast cancer mortality across France from 1968 to 2017

Abstract Background Territorial health inequalities are of growing concern in countries with universal health systems. From 2003, three successive national cancer plans were launched in France, aiming to improve prevention and treatment. Regions in France are responsible for strategic and financial management of healthcare within their boundaries, which, until 2016, included up to 8 departments. In this study, we analyze the evolution of between and within-region territorial inequalities in breast cancer mortality over 50 years. Methods We used direct and indirect standardization to analyze trends in breast cancer mortality for women aged 25 to 74 years between 1968 and 2017 in each department of metropolitan France. We analyzed the evolution of relative inequalities over time using standard errors of age-adjusted rates. We used multilevel Poisson regression to estimate how much the regional level contributed to territorial variation. Results Over the period 1968 to 1992, breast cancer standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) increased (+16%) while relative territorial inequalities decreased (-21%). After 1997, SMRs decreased (-23%) but territorial inequalities remained unchanged. In 18 out of 22 regions, inequalities were lower at the end than at the start of the study period. Period proved to be the most important determinant of variation in mortality. However, multilevel models also suggested that the regional level explained most of the remaining variation in each period (from 50% to over 80%). Conclusions Over the study period in most French regions, breast cancer mortality has decreased, and so have relative inequalities. Nevertheless, there is evidence that regions have performed differently. The proportion of variation explained by the regional level suggests the continued relevance of the health system on breast cancer mortality. Key messages • Territorial inequality in breast cancer mortality has decreased in France over the 1968-2017 period. • In most regions, disparities between departments have decreased.

Temporal trends in mitral valve surgery in Denmark: changes in patient characteristics and outcomes from 1996 to 2021

Abstract Background Mitral valve regurgitation (MR) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mitral valve surgery (MVS) is recommended in severe MR, which is the second most common cause of heart valve surgery in the Western world. Data on national practice patterns are lacking and are essential for the continuous epidemiologic surveillance of the disease. Purpose To investigate temporal trends in patient characteristics, incidence and mortality in patients undergoing MVS for MR in Denmark from 1996 to 2021. Methods Using Danish nationwide registries, we identified all patients ≥18 years undergoing MVS for MR. Patients operated due to infective endocarditis were excluded. The study population was grouped into one 6-year and four 5-year calendar bands and type of MVS (mitral valve repair, mechanical or biological valve replacement and transcatheter-edge-to-edge repair (TEER)). Temporal trends in patient characteristics were computed. Annual incidence rates were calculated while considering the total Danish population ≥18 years at risk. For one-year postoperative mortality analysis, the reverse Kaplan-Meier estimator and a multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis were used. Results We identified 7,813 patients (median age 67.3 years, 65.6% males) undergoing MVS. Over calendar time, burden of comorbidities decreased while median age increased, Table 1. From 1996 to 2021, a stepwise increase was seen in the overall incidence rate for MVS from 3.87 [95% CI 3.32-4.51] to 7.06 [95% CI 6.34-7.58] per 100,000 person-years (p<0.001). The incidence of mechanical valve replacement statistically significantly decreased (p<0.001), while the incidence of mitral valve repair (p=0.004), biological replacement (p≤0.001) and TEER statistically increased (p=0.015), Figure 1. For the overall study period, one-year mortality was 5.0% for mitral valve repair, 12.7% for mechanical valve replacement, 15.7% for biological valve replacement and 19.0% for TEER. Demographics and one-year mortality stratified by calendar period are shown in Table 1. In the mitral valve repair group, adjusted analysis showed a stepwise statistically significant decrease in one-year mortality with HR 0.30 (95% CI 0.17-0.53, p≤0.001) in 2017-2021 as compared to 1996-2001. In the remaining surgical groups, trends were towards decreasing one-year mortality over calendar periods but did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion(s) In this Danish nationwide cohort study, we observed an increase in the incidence of overall mitral valve surgery from 1996 to 2021. The incidence of mechanical valve replacement decreased, while the incidence of mitral valve repair, biological replacement and TEER increased. Mortality rates significantly improved for mitral valve repair patients over calendar time. Continuous epidemiological surveillance of this patient group is required in an era of development in treatment guidelines, surgical methods and patient demographics.Table 1Figure 1

Escalating Health Crisis: Dissecting Mortality Causes and Trends Among Indigenous Populations in Northeast Brazil.

In Northeast Brazil, the poorest region of the country, indigenous communities face critical health care challenges. Despite legal entitlements to the Unified Health System (SUS), systemic barriers persist, exacerbating health disparities and mortality. This ecological study analyzed mortality trends and causes of death within the Special Indigenous Sanitary District (DSEI) Alagoas-Sergipe over a decade. Data on deaths from 2012 to 2022 were obtained from the Indigenous Health Secretariat. Causes of death were classified into 13 categories. Mortality rates per 1,000 indigenous inhabitants were calculated, and trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The study also compared causes of death by age group. Mortality rates ranged from 3.3 to 5.2 per 1,000, showing a moderate upward trend over time (τ = 0.5, p = 0.042). Predominant causes included heart and vascular disorders (24.3%), external causes (12.4%), respiratory issues (11.1%), and infections (10.9%). About one-third of pediatric deaths were associated with general neonatal complications. This study highlights increasing mortality in indigenous communities in Northeast Brazil. The predominant causes of death reflect broader public health concerns. These trends emphasize the urgency for more effective, culturally sensitive public health policies and improved health care access.

Analysis of traffic injury trends, and strategies for road safety promotion in Lithuania

Abstract Every year, about 1.3 million people die on the world’s roads. The aim of the study was to analyze the mortality trends from traffic injuries, and to discuss strategies for the prevention of road traffic injuries and road safety promotion in Lithuania. A longitudinal study was conducted, and regression analysis was applied. The study showed that, when analyzing the changes in mortality from the main causes of death over 2009-2019, the greatest progress in mortality reduction was observed in the category of deaths from external causes; whereas, the number of deaths from diseases of the circulatory system did not change, and the number of deaths from malignant tumors increased slightly. In Lithuania, the death rate from traffic injuries per 100,000 inhabitants decreased significantly over a 50-year period (1971-2020) (in the whole population, and in the subgroups of men and women). In Lithuania, during the fifty-year period (1971-2020), pedestrian mortality rates decreased significantly in the whole population, and children and adolescents (0-14, 15-19, and 0-19 years). Over 1998-2020, road traffic injury deaths decreased significantly in children age groups 0-14, 15-19, and 0-19. After exploring the preventive strategies used for road safety promotion, it was revealed that the most effective results were achieved, when education, safe environment creation, and legislation with enforcement were used. It was important to create a safe engineering environment, to separate pedestrian and bicycle paths from high-speed traffic on roads, to improve the visibility of road users, to apply measures that reduce driver’s fatigue, and to combat the usage of mobile phones while driving. Preventive activities were aimed at alcohol control, speed limitation, education of safe behavior of drivers, promotion of safe cars operation. The usage of safety belts and safety seats, helmets for motorcyclists and cyclists were increased through legislative and educational measures.

The effect of Covid deaths on premature mortality trends in Northern Dimension partnership countries

Abstract Background Potential Years Life Lost (PYLL) is an established method to measure, follow trends and compare disease burden within and between countries. Northern Dimension Partnership in Health and Social wellbeing (NDPHS) network was established in 2003 and includes the following countries: Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Russia, and Sweden. Due to the Russian invasion to Ukraine, Russia is now excluded from the collaboration. Methods Premature mortality is defined as a death before the age of 70 years. PYLL-rates per 100,000 population are presented in six cause of deaths categories: total mortality, external causes, vascular diseases, cancers, alcohol-related deaths and suicides. Furthermore, 2021 data included deaths due to the Covid infection. Data were obtained from Eurostat and analyses are standardized to EU standard population. Results PYLL-rates declined from 2003 to 2017 in all countries and in most causes of death sub-groups. The total (all causes, all countries) PYLL-rate declined between 2003 and 2017 from 7072 to 5154 in men and from 3263 to 2532 in women. However, from 2017 to 2021 the total PYLL-rate increased to 5469 in men and 2623 in women. The increase was explained by Covid mortality. When Covid deaths were excluded, a minor decrease was observed also between 2017 and 2021. In 2021, total PYLL-rates vary largely between countries: from 2804 to 12,393 in men and from 1781 to 4460 in women. Differences between countries in Covid-related and other cause-specific PYLL-rates were also large. In all countries and causes of death sub-groups PYLL-rates were markedly higher in men compared to women. Conclusions The number of years lost due to premature preventable mortality have declined markedly in all NDPHS countries in the last two decades. Between 2017 and 2021, some increase was observed due to the Covid-related deaths. Differences between countries in premature mortality are still large. Key messages • The number of years lost due to premature preventable mortality have declined markedly in all NDPHS countries since 2003 but still, in 2021, differences between countries were large. • Covid-related deaths caused an increase in premature mortality between 2017 and 2021.

Updated CP*Trends: An Online Tool to Compare Cohort and Period Trends across Cancer Sites.

CP*Trends is a widely used SEER website used to explore temporal effects of period and cohort on cancer incidence and mortality. It provides a graphical display of smoothed rates, and a C-P Score that helps to assess the magnitude of the effect of cohort and period. This update provides results for African Americans and Whites. The C-P Score has an intrinsic bias favoring cohort because there are many more cohorts than periods. An adjusted C-P Score removes some of this advantage. Bootstrap confidence intervals are given, which allow one to see the effects of different sample sizes on the model results. Finally, users may control window size used in the smoothing algorithm, which helps to avoid over smoothing or masking of trends. The method is illustrated using data on cervical cancer incidence trends for African Americans and Whites, 1975-2018. Rates are higher for African Americans, and both races have contributions for cohort. However, the period effect is only strongly evident in Whites. Visual inspection of White trends suggests possible differences for those older and younger than age 50. These methods are applied in an interactive website displaying incidence and mortality trends for over 20 cancer sites in the US.

Trends and Disparities in Coronary Artery Disease and Obesity-Related Mortality in the United States From 1999-2022.

Almost half of the US adult population has obesity, which predisposes to atherosclerosis and can lead to poor prognosis in coronary artery disease (CAD). We aim to identify CAD and obesity-related mortality trends among adults in the United States stratified by age, sex, race and geographical location. The CDC-WONDER database was used to extract death certificate data for adults aged ≥ 25 years. Crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons were calculated, and temporal trends were described by calculating annual percent change (APC) and the average APC (AAPC) in the rates using Joinpoint regression analysis. From 1999 to 2022, a total of 273,761 CAD and obesity-related deaths were recorded in the United States. The AAMR increased consistently from 1999 to 2018 (APC: 4.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.4-4.9) and surged thereafter till 2022 (APC: 11.4; 95% CI: 7.7-19.1). During the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022), AAMR almost doubled that of the rest of the study period. Additionally, the AAMR for males was nearly twice that of females. Non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks or African Americans displayed the highest AAMR, followed by NH Whites, Hispanic or Latino, and other NH populations. AAMRs showed minimal variation by census regions. Rural areas exhibited a higher AAMR (AAMR: 5.9, 95% CI: 5.8-5.9) than urban areas (AAMR: 4.4, 95% CI: 4.4-4.5). We observed increasing trends in CAD and obesity-related deaths throughout the study period reaching a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sex, Racial/Ethnic, and Regional Disparities in Pulmonary Embolism Mortality Trends in the USA, 1999-2020.

While the National Institutes of Health emphasize integrating sex as a biological variable into research, specific considerations of sex-related differences in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends remain scarce. This study examines sex-based PE mortality trends across regional and demographic groups in the USA from 1999 to 2020. A retrospective analysis of National Center for Health Statistics mortality data from 1999 to 2020 was conducted. Using ICD-10 code I26, PE decedents were identified. Piecewise linear regression assessed sex-based temporal trends in PE mortality by age, race/ethnicity, and census region. Annual percentage changes and average annual percentage changes were derived using Weighted Bayesian Information Criteria. The 95% confidence intervals were estimated using the empirical quantile method. From 1999 to 2020, a total of 179,273 individuals died in the USA due to PE, resulting in an age-adjusted mortality rate of 2.5 per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 2.5-2.5). While men and women exhibited comparable rates in recent time segments and across most subcategories, a higher mortality trend among males compared to females was observed among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic individuals and residents of the Western US census region. These results remained robust even after excluding data from 2020, accounting for the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights sex-based disparities in PE mortality trends in the USA from 1999 to 2020. Despite overall stable mortality rates, higher trends among males were evident in specific demographic groups and regions. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions to mitigate PE-related mortality discrepancies across diverse populations.

Bayesian Model Projecting Cardiovascular Disease Related Mortality Trends in the United States.

As future cardiovascular disease mortality trends have public health implications, we aimed to project ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and heart failure (HF) mortality rates for adults (40-79 years). In this population-level study, we linked the yearly mortality rates (per 100 000 US residents) (2000-2019) with IHD, CeVD, or HF as the primary cause of death from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research with the midyear US population estimates (2000-2035) for adults (40-79 years). We calculated the observed age-standardized mortality rates (2000-2019) (per 100 000 residents) (aSMR) and fitted Bayesian age-period-cohort models to project aSMR for IHD, CeVD, and HF up to 2035 in the United States. Between 2019 (last year of observed data) and 2035 (last year of projected results), the US population (40-79 years) will increase by 16% and age. The IHD aSMR will reduce from 111.9 (in 2019) to 81.8 (66.7-96.9) in 2035, an effect observed for all age groups. The CeVD aSMR will remain comparable between 2019 (37.4) and 2035 (38.6 [30.7-46.5]). The HF aSMR will increase from 16.5 in 2019 to reach 30.9 (13-48.8) in 2035; such increases were observed in all age groups. In the United States, between 2020 and 2035, the aSMR for IHD is expected to decrease, for CeVD will remain stable, and for HF will increase substantially. These data can inform resource allocation for future public health initiatives.

Trends in adult mortality rates in India, 1970 to 2018: age-period-cohort analysis.

High premature adult deaths in developing countries are gaining attention, as recent studies show their increasing impact on overall mortality rates. This paper has twofold objectives: firstly, it investigates the long-term trends and patterns of adult mortality between 1970 and 2018 in India. Secondly, it attempts to detect age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on adult mortality decline over time. Data on age-specific mortality rates and disease-adjusted life years for adult age groups (15-59 years) were collected from the Sample Registration System and the Global Burden of Disease study, respectively. The trends in age-standardized mortality rates were presented graphically, and critical change points were highlighted using a change-point analysis. The intrinsic estimator model was applied to estimate the independent effects of APC on adult mortality. The findings revealed that adult mortality declined between 1970 and 2018 with multiple critical change points. The APC effects showed a notable decline in adult mortality during 2005-2018 and for the recent birth cohorts, 1980-2004. However, the rate of mortality declined slowly over time. Results also indicated that mortality started increasing from mid-adult ages and peaked in older adult ages due to the age effects and provided evidence of a rise in adult life loss due to non-communicable diseases in recent years. Overall, the study underscores the importance of implementing health policies aimed at reducing life loss in the most economically active ages that can have long-term negative implications for the country's economic growth.

Declining invasive and rising insitu melanoma incidence trends in Iceland: A nationwide cohort study.

Melanoma is increasing worldwide, with incidence rates of invasive melanoma and melanoma insitu (MIS) varying by country. To provide updated invasive melanoma and MIS incidence and mortality trends in Iceland and explore differences among sex and rurality. In this whole-population study using the Icelandic Cancer Registry, patients diagnosed with invasive melanoma or MIS between 1957 and 2021 were included. Sex-specific world standardized incidence (WSR) and mortality rates were assessed by rurality. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate trends using annual per cent change (APC). Invasive melanoma incidence rates increased from 0.66 to 7.0 (men) and 1.6 to 11.0 (women) per 100,000 person-years, and from 0.2 to 4.0 and 0.9 to 9.5 per 100,000 person-years for MIS in men and women, respectively, with a statistically significant linear trend (p = 0.001). WSR peaked in both men and women (10.7, 17.9 per 100,000 person-years) between 2002 and 2006 and has since been trending down. Between 1991 and 2005, the rise in invasive melanoma occurred more frequently in urban regions. Between 2003 and 2005, joinpoint analysis demonstrated a downtrend in invasive melanoma in men and women (-0.29, -0.73; p < 0.05). For MIS, the WSR peaked at 12.4 per 100,000 person-years in women between 1997 and 2001 before down-trending to 4.2. In recent years (2017-2021), the WSR has been steadily increasing in women with an APC of 1.43. Melanoma-specific mortality has decreased since 2012 (-0.07; p < 0.05). Declining invasive melanoma incidence and mortality rates in conjunction with the recent rise in MIS may reflect the impact of Iceland's sun safety and anti-sunbed educational campaigns, federal regulation of sunbeds and earlier melanoma detection in urban areas.

Pervasive Stagnation: Flat and Rising Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Post-2010 Across US States and Counties.

Since 2010, the U.S. has experienced adverse trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, which dramatically slowed long-standing life expectancy improvements. The extent to which the national trend in CVD mortality masks heterogeneity in trends across states and counties is poorly understood. We provide a detailed accounting of post-2010 trends in CVD mortality by U.S. state and county to understand how features of place relate to trends. We compare trends during 2010-2019 to that of 2000-2009. We observe flattening declines in CVD mortality in nearly every state at both midlife (ages 40-64) and old age (ages 65-84) across the two decades. Many states exhibited increases in midlife CVD mortality in 2010-2019. Old age CVD mortality was still declining in most states post-2010, although much slower compared to the previous decade. States in the Southeast recorded some of the fastest post-2010 declines in CVD mortality at old age. County-level median household income was associated with level of CVD mortality, but all income deciles, even the wealthiest counties, experienced stagnating CVD mortality declines. Findings highlight the ubiquitous nature of CVD stagnation, pointing to the need to identify risk factor affecting trends across regions and socioeconomic strata across the United States.

An evaluation of trends for mesothelioma mortality in American women: Addressing the content of a recent Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

Mesothelioma is a fatal disease that has historically been associated with exposure to airborne asbestos. Because occupational asbestos exposures dropped dramatically in the late 1960s and early 1970s, far fewer cases of mesothelioma today are due to these fibers but, instead, are usually a result of the aging process or genetic predisposition. In May of 2022, a Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) was issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding malignant mesothelioma incidence in women from 1999 to 2020. While this MMWR alerted citizens to the continued presence of the disease, after reading this article one might have thought that the CDC was suggesting that the disease was increasing in women due to asbestos exposures (which it is not). In the present analysis, we investigate several factors related to the interpretation of epidemiological data for mesothelioma, including the role of asbestos as a risk factor over time. The authors conducted a review of the scientific community's understanding of mesothelioma incidence and asbestos exposures amongst women, as well as an investigation of the methods and references in the MMWR article. Although various articles have recently discussed the incidence of both peritoneal and pleural mesothelioma in women, it is fortunate that the age-adjusted rates for mesothelioma have remained flat (neither increased nor decreased significantly) in women for the past 50 years. Incredibly few women in the U. S. have had appreciable cumulative exposures to any type of asbestos (chrysotile, amosite, or crocidolite) in the workplace or from the ambient environment, especially since about 1965-1970. In this paper, we highlight six factors that should be considered when evaluating the incidence of mesothelioma amongst American women in the current era. Without sufficient consideration of these factors, improper conclusions have been drawn over the past several years.

Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington

Introduction: Since the onset of widespread COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, there have been concerns about serious cardiovascular adverse events as a result of mass vaccination. This study aimed to estimate excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality in King County, WA, and investigate any association with COVID-19 vaccination rates. Methods: An exploratory data analysis was performed. Comparative analyses were performed to evaluate the changes in total EMS attendances over time. Excess deaths were calculated using the 2015-2020 cardiopulmonary arrest mortality trend line. The relationship between excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality and vaccination rates was analyzed using polynomial regression analysis. Results: Approximately 98% of the King County population received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 2023. As of August 2nd, 2024, there have been approximately 589,247 confirmed COVID-19 cases in King County. In 2021- 2022, Total EMS attendances in King County sharply increased by 35.34% from 2020 and by 11% from pre-pandemic years. Cases of 'obvious death' upon EMS arrival increased by 19.89% in 2020, 36.57% in 2021, and 53.80% in 2022 compared to the 2017-2019 average. We found a 25.7% increase in total cardiopulmonary arrests and a 25.4% increase in cardiopulmonary arrest mortality from 2020 to 2023 in King County, WA. Excess fatal cardiopulmonary arrests were estimated to have increased by 1,236% from 2020 to 2023, rising from 11 excess deaths (95% CI: -12, 34) in 2020 to 147 excess deaths (95% CI: 123, 170) in 2023. A quadratic increase in excess cardiopulmonary arrest mortality was observed with higher COVID-19 vaccination rates. The general population of King County sharply declined by 0.94% (21,300) in 2021, deviating from the expected population size. Applying our model from these data to the entire United States yielded 49,240 excess fatal cardiopulmonary arrests from 2021-2023. Conclusions: We identified a significant ecological and temporal association between excess fatal cardiopulmonary arrests and the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. The increase in excess cardiopulmonary arrest deaths may also be attributed to COVID-19 infection and disruptions in emergency care during the pandemic. Urgent further research is needed to confirm our observations with attention to risk mitigation for incident events and improved survival with resuscitation.

Trends and predictions of maternal sepsis and other maternal infections among women of childbearing age: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.

Maternal sepsis and other maternal infections (MSMIs) are major public health concerns worldwide. However, comprehensive data on their global burden and evolving trends remain sparse. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of MSMIs in women of childbearing age (WCBA) from 1990 to 2019, investigate the relationship between disease burden and age, period, and birth cohorts, and then provide a prediction of MSMIs incidence and deaths. The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the incidence and death number of MSMIs in seven age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years) were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were estimated utilizing the age standardization by direct method. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to investigate the changing trends of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohorts. Furthermore, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was implemented to predict the global epidemiological trends through 2044. In 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were 1072.90 (95% UI: 725.93 to 1483.46) and 0.86 (95% UI: 0.69 to 1.05), respectively. The highest disease burden existed in the African Region. From 1990 to 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs (AAPC: -1.32, 95% CI: -1.34 to -1.30; AAPC: -3.39, 95% CI: -4.28 to -2.48) in WCBA both demonstrated significant declining trends. The changing trends varied significantly across 6 regions and 204 countries. The effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates differed. From 2020 to 2044, the global age-standardized incidence rate of MSMIs in WCBA was predicted to decrease whereas the case number increases slowly. The global trends in MSMIs incidence and mortality generally showed a decline with considerable heterogeneity, indicating both the effectiveness and unevenness of global management of MSMIs. Moreover, the predicted increased case number highlights prominent challenges in the control of MSMIs.

The association between county-level premature cardiovascular mortality related to cardio-kidney-metabolic disease and the social determinants of health in the US.

Cardio-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is defined by the American Heart Association as the intersection between metabolic, renal and cardiovascular disease. Understanding the contemporary estimates of CKM related mortality and recent trends in the US is essential for developing targeted public interventions. We collected state-level and county-level CKM-associated age-adjusted premature cardiovascular mortality (aaCVM) (2010–2019) rates from the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). We linked the county-level aaCVM with a multi-component social deprivation metric: the Social Deprivation Index (SDI: range 0–100) and grouped them as follows: I: 0–25, II: 26–50, III: 51–75, and IV: 76–100. We conducted pair-wise comparison of aaCVM between SDI groups with the multiplicity adjusted Wilcoxon test; we compared aaCVM in men versus women, metropolitan versus nonmetropolitan counties, and non-hispanic white versus non-hispanic black residents. In 3101 analyzed counties in the US, the median CKM associated aaCVM was 61 [interquartile range (IQR): 45, 82]/100 000. Mississippi (99/100 000) and Minnesota (33/100 000) had the highest and lowest values respectively. CKM associated aaMR increased across SDI groups [I – 45 (IQR: 36, 55)/100 000, II- 61 (IQR: 49, 77)/100 000, III- 77 (IQR: 61, 94)/100 000, IV- 89 (IQR: 70, 110)/100 000; all pair-wise p-values < 0.001]. Men had higher rates [85 (64, 91)/100 000] than women [41 (28, 58)/100 000](p-value < 0.001), metropolitan counties [54 (40, 72)/100 000] had lower rates than non-metropolitan counties [66 (49, 90)/100 000](p-value < 0.001), and non-Hispanic Black [110 (86, 137)/100 000] had higher aaMR than non-Hispanic White residents [59 (44, 78)/100 000](p-value < 0.001). In the US, CKM mortality remains high and disproportionately occurs in more socially deprived counties and non-metropolitan counties. Our inability to reduce CKM mortality rates over the study period highlights the need for targeted policy interventions to curb the ongoing high burden.