The effect of Covid deaths on premature mortality trends in Northern Dimension partnership countries

Abstract

Abstract Background Potential Years Life Lost (PYLL) is an established method to measure, follow trends and compare disease burden within and between countries. Northern Dimension Partnership in Health and Social wellbeing (NDPHS) network was established in 2003 and includes the following countries: Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Russia, and Sweden. Due to the Russian invasion to Ukraine, Russia is now excluded from the collaboration. Methods Premature mortality is defined as a death before the age of 70 years. PYLL-rates per 100,000 population are presented in six cause of deaths categories: total mortality, external causes, vascular diseases, cancers, alcohol-related deaths and suicides. Furthermore, 2021 data included deaths due to the Covid infection. Data were obtained from Eurostat and analyses are standardized to EU standard population. Results PYLL-rates declined from 2003 to 2017 in all countries and in most causes of death sub-groups. The total (all causes, all countries) PYLL-rate declined between 2003 and 2017 from 7072 to 5154 in men and from 3263 to 2532 in women. However, from 2017 to 2021 the total PYLL-rate increased to 5469 in men and 2623 in women. The increase was explained by Covid mortality. When Covid deaths were excluded, a minor decrease was observed also between 2017 and 2021. In 2021, total PYLL-rates vary largely between countries: from 2804 to 12,393 in men and from 1781 to 4460 in women. Differences between countries in Covid-related and other cause-specific PYLL-rates were also large. In all countries and causes of death sub-groups PYLL-rates were markedly higher in men compared to women. Conclusions The number of years lost due to premature preventable mortality have declined markedly in all NDPHS countries in the last two decades. Between 2017 and 2021, some increase was observed due to the Covid-related deaths. Differences between countries in premature mortality are still large. Key messages • The number of years lost due to premature preventable mortality have declined markedly in all NDPHS countries since 2003 but still, in 2021, differences between countries were large. • Covid-related deaths caused an increase in premature mortality between 2017 and 2021.