Trends In Mortality Research Articles

Novel Methodology for Linking 9-1-1 Dispatch Categories with a Death Registry: Mortality Rates of Selected Dispatch Categories

Objectives Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS) is a system used to assign medical 9-1-1 calls to one of 35 chief complaints that are further categorized in order of increasing priority, Alpha through Echo. In this descriptive study we demonstrate the methodology of matching MPDS codes to a county mortality registry. We also evaluated the ability of select MPDS codes (fall, respiratory, sick person, and abdominal pain) to predict mortality up to 30 d for all ages transported by Alameda County Emergency Medical Services (EMS). Methods Using Alameda County EMS data, we conducted a retrospective review of all EMS encounters that occurred from November 1, 2011, to November 1, 2016. To describe mortality in this population, we identified unique patients and linked them to the Alameda County Public Health Death Registry. We identified mortality at 48 h, 7 d, and 30 d after an EMS encounter. Results Approximately 99% of the EMS encounters were matched with unique patient identifiers, yielding a study sample of 202,431 (4% less than age 18, 53% between ages 18–65, and 43% over age 65). Patients with a respiratory chief complaint had the highest mortality percentage in each age group (0.23%, 2.7%, and 14.55% respectively). There was no correlation between the MPDS code and mortality for patients less than age 18. An increase in Alpha through Echo designation for respiratory complaints in patients 18–65 and older than 65 years corresponded with an increase in 30-day mortality. Conclusions This study demonstrates an upward trend in mortality with increasing acuity of Alpha through Echo designations for adult patients with respiratory complaints. Mortality increased with age in this cohort. Most of the deaths occurred after 7 days.

Temporal trends in mortality and associated factors among persons with mental disorders: A register-based cohort study

This study aims to examine 20-year temporal trends in all-cause mortality among psychiatric patients and investigating impacts of risk factors on the time trends based on 218,703 Finnish adults with mental disorders who were discharged from 87 psychiatric hospitals between 1 Jan 1995 and 31 Dec 2014. The age-period-cohort analysis of Poisson model with random hospital effects estimated temporal trends in death rate and associated factors at individual, healthcare system, and society levels, following the WHO multilevel intervention framework model for six major psychiatric diagnosis. The adjusted annual mortality declined by 2.2 % annually (RR: 0.978 [95 % CI 0.976–0.980]) for all individuals, and by 2.8 % after adjusting for all risk factors, with varied decreasing rate between 2.0 % and 3.6 % by diagnosis. Individual level factors accounted for the declining rate by 54.5 % for all patients, with the highest impact on patients with personality disorders, followed by patients with affective disorders and patients with schizophrenia. Identified declining trends and associated factors which are preventable and modifiable for individuals with specific psychiatric diagnosis may lead to develop targeted service and intervention strategies in bringing down mortality further for the population.

Effect of Meal-Timing on the Association of Unsaturated Fatty Acids with All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality among Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study with 10-Year Follow-Up.

Conflicting results have been reported on the association of dietary unsaturated fatty acids (UFAs) with longevity and cardiovascular health. Most previous studies have focused only on the amount of UFAs consumed, not the timing of intake. This prospective cohort study used data from 30,136 adults aged 18 years and older. Intakes of UFAs by meal time and types were assessed by a 24-h dietary recall for two days. The covariate-adjusted survey-weighted Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the associations of dietary total unsaturated fatty acid (TUFA), polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA), and monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) intakes throughout the day and three meals with mortality. During a median of 10.0 years of follow-up, 4510 total deaths occurred. All-cause mortality decreased with increasing intakes at dinner of TUFA (HR: 0.87 [0.77-0.98]), PUFA (HR: 0.81 [0.73-0.91]), and MUFA (HR: 0.88 [0.77-0.99]). With an increased intake of PUFA at dinner, CVD mortality showed a decreasing trend. However, the inverted L-shaped non-linear trend in all-cause mortality was found with increasing intake at breakfast of TUFA (HR: 1.35 [1.17-1.57], Q3 vs. Q1), PUFA (HR: 1.30 [1.13-1.50]), and MUFA (HR: 1.28 [1.13-1.45]). Meanwhile, increased breakfast intake of UFAs was associated with increased CVD and heart disease mortality. Meal timing influences the association of UFAs with all-cause and CVD-related mortality.

Burden of Mortality from Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Biliary Tract Cancers by Race and Ethnicity and Sex in US, 2018-2023.

The trends in mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and biliary tract cancers stratified by sex and race/ethnicity in the US continue to evolve. We estimated the sex- and race/ethnicity-based trends in HCC and biliary tract cancers-related mortality in US adults with a focus on disease burden. We performed a population-based analysis using the US national mortality records from 2018 to 2023. We identified HCC and biliary tract cancer using appropriate ICD-10 codes. Temporal trends in mortality were calculated by joinpoint analysis with annual percentage change (APC). Annual age-standardized mortality from HCC decreased steadily with an APC of -1.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.0% to -0.7%). While there was a linear increase in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma-related mortality (APC: 3.1%, 95% CI: 1.2%-4.9%) and ampulla of Vater cancer-related mortality (APC: 4.1%, 95% CI: 0.5%-7.9%), gallbladder cancer-related mortality decreased (APC: -1.9%, 95% CI: -3.8% to -0.0%). Decreasing trends in mortality from HCC were noted in males, not females. HCC-related mortality decreased more steeply in racial and ethnic minority individuals compared with non-Hispanic White individuals. Racial and ethnic differences in trends in mortality for biliary tract cancers depended on the malignancy's anatomical site. While the annual mortality for HCC- and gallbladder cancer demonstrated declining trends, ICC and AVC-related mortality continued to increase from 2018 to 2023. Although racial and ethnic minority individuals in the US experienced disproportionately higher HCC and biliary tract cancer, recent declines in HCC may be primarily due to declines among racial and ethnic minority individuals and males.

Trends in Hospital Stay, Complication Rate, and Mortality in Hip Fracture Patients: A Two-Decade Comparison at a National Tertiary Referral Center.

Background: Since the turn of the century, the age-adjusted incidence of proximal femoral fractures has caused a plateau or fall. However, it was anticipated that the number of patients with proximal femoral fractures would rise as life expectancy rose and the population over 80 years old expanded. The aim of this study was to compare the length of hospital stay, complication rate, and mortality in patients with proximal femoral fractures between two different time periods: 20 years ago and the present. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of medical records of patients aged 65 years and above who underwent surgery for proximal femoral fractures between January 2000 and December 2001 and between January 2020 and December 2021. We collected information on age, gender, fracture type, length of hospital stay, and complication rate. Dates of death were obtained from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Results: We included 136 patients who were operated on between 2000 and 2001 and 134 patients between 2020 and 2021. The average age increased significantly from 71.6 years to 79.0 years (p < 0.001). The length of hospital stay decreased dramatically from 15.1 days to 6.0 days (p < 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in delirium, urinary tract infection, or pneumonia. No difference was found in 30-day or 1-year mortality between the two groups. Conclusions: The complication rate and mortality between the two time periods appeared comparable, although the length of hospital stay decreased substantially. Therefore, we recommend considering expedited discharge from the acute care hospital for elderly hip fracture patients while implementing an individualized approach for better outcomes.

Avoidable Mortality in Korea 1997-2001: Temporal Trend and its Contribution to All-cause Mortality.

This study analyzed the mortality trends from avoidable causes in Korea from 1997 to 2021, to estimate its contribution to the overall mortality in different subgroups, including. Gender, age, and cause of disease. The all-cause and avoidable mortality were presented as a time series plot and average annual percent change. Trend of avoidable mortality was also analyzed by subgroups, disease causes and the percentage attributed to each causes. The decline in avoidable mortality accounted for 82.6% of all-cause mortality reduction. Preventable mortality showed a more pronounced decline than treatable mortality, explaining 72.3% of the avoidable mortality reduction. In 1997-2001, avoidable death occurred in 72.2% (537,024 cases) of all-cause deaths, which declined to 60.0% (342,979 cases) in 2017-2021. The contribution of avoidable mortality in the decline of all-cause morality was greater in males (83.6%) than in females (79.3%). The decline in avoidable mortality and its contribution to the all-cause mortality reduction implies general improvement of the population health in Korea. Nevertheless, the heterogenous trend within different subgroups warrants more equitable design and implementation of health services and policies.

Trends and distribution patterns of infant mortality and maternal HIV positivity in South Africa: A decade review (2007 - 2016).

The infant mortality rate (IMR) (24 per 1 000 live births) remains high in South Africa (SA), well above the recommended sustainable development goal (SDG) 3 of 12 deaths per 1 000 live births. High infant mortality is a poor indicator of the health of a population and will hamper attainment of the SDGs. To investigate the trends and distribution patterns of IMR between 2007 and 2016 and its association with HIV-positive pregnant mothers in SA. This study used a cross-sectional study design by analysing secondary data on infant mortality from the 2007 and 2016 Statistics South Africa Community Surveys (CSs), as well as data from the 2007 National Antenatal Sentinel HIV and Syphilis Prevalence Survey. (Antenatal HIV Sentinel Survey - ANCHSS). Line charts with descriptive statistics were used to detail trends in IMRs, and multiple logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for infant mortality in the 2007 and 2016 CS datasets. Spearman's rank-order correlation (rho) was used to correlate infant mortality with data from the 2007 ANCHSS. All analyses were performed with Stata version 16.0. A total sample of 87 805, comprising 43 922 males and 43 883 females, was included in the analysis. The results revealed a decline in IMR from 55 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2007 to 32 in 2016. Overall, there was a significant decrease in the mortality rate from 2007 to 2016. The infant mortality proportions by province showed KwaZulu-Natal Province having the highest IMR (17.5 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2007 and 6.3 in 2016). Males had a higher IMR (28 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2007 and 17.7 in 2016) compared with females at 26.7 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2007 and 13.8 in 2016. IMR data from the 2007 CS was correlated with the 2007 ANCHSS (28% HIV prevalence in 2007), using Spearman's rank-order correlation, which showed a moderate correlation of 0.58 (p<0.001). The study findings showed a reduction in the trends of infant mortality between 2007 and 2016 in SA; despite the reduction, health inequalities persist. There is a correlation evident between maternal HIV prevalence and IMR in SA. We recommend the use of disability-adjusted life expectancy in SA to measure population health and introduce robust data sets that can better inform policy.

Disparities in mortality trends of adults with HIV in the USA: A comprehensive examination across 2 decades.

Approximately 38 million people worldwide are affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), with 4000 new infections daily. While literature explores HIV mortality among the elderly in the US, there is an underrepresentation of mortality data for adults. By scrutinizing mortality trends based on demographic factors such as gender, race or ethnicity, age groups, and geographic location, the study seeks to uncover patterns that may facilitate a longitudinal perspective for tailoring interventions and allocating resources effectively. Crude death rates and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 individuals were calculated using HIV mortality data (ICD-10 Codes B20-24) from CDC WONDER database. Permutation test was used to calculate annual percentage changes in AAMR with 95% confidence interval. Average annual percentage changes were computed as weighted average of annual percentage changes. Between 1999 to 2020, US adult HIV deaths totaled 225,396 (AAMR: 5.03), with a significantly decreasing average annual percentage changes (-5.94). Males exhibited a 3-fold higher AAMR (7.50) than females (2.67). Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest AAMR (21.82), while Non-Hispanic Asians had the lowest (0.67). The South and Northeast regions had the highest AAMRs (6.91 and 6.33, respectively). Notably, the District of Columbia had an alarmingly high mortality rate of 39.9, while North Dakota had the lowest (0.7). Urban regions (5.47) had double the mortality rates of rural regions (2.70). Mortality rate peaked in age groups 45 to 54 (8.65) and 35 to 44 (7.42). While overall HIV mortality is declining, disparities persist among demographics. Targeted interventions are crucial to improve preventive measures and healthcare access for disproportionately affected groups.

Close relationship between mediators of inflammation and pancreatic cancer: Our experience

Close relationship between mediators of inflammation and pancreatic cancer: Our experience

Revisiting the standards of cancer detection and therapy alongside their comparison to modern methods.

In accordance with the World Health Organization data, cancer remains at the forefront of fatal diseases. An upward trend in cancer incidence and mortality has been observed globally, emphasizing that efforts in developing detection and treatment methods should continue. The diagnostic path typically begins with learning the medical history of a patient; this is followed by basic blood tests and imaging tests to indicate where cancer may be located to schedule a needle biopsy. Prompt initiation of diagnosis is crucial since delayed cancer detection entails higher costs of treatment and hospitalization. Thus, there is a need for novel cancer detection methods such as liquid biopsy, elastography, synthetic biosensors, fluorescence imaging, and reflectance confocal microscopy. Conventional therapeutic methods, although still common in clinical practice, pose many limitations and are unsatisfactory. Nowadays, there is a dynamic advancement of clinical research and the development of more precise and effective methods such as oncolytic virotherapy, exosome-based therapy, nanotechnology, dendritic cells, chimeric antigen receptors, immune checkpoint inhibitors, natural product-based therapy, tumor-treating fields, and photodynamic therapy. The present paper compares available data on conventional and modern methods of cancer detection and therapy to facilitate an understanding of this rapidly advancing field and its future directions. As evidenced, modern methods are not without drawbacks; there is still a need to develop new detection strategies and therapeutic approaches to improve sensitivity, specificity, safety, and efficacy. Nevertheless, an appropriate route has been taken, as confirmed by the approval of some modern methods by the Food and Drug Administration.

Sex and Racial Disparities in Proportionate Mortality of Premature Myocardial Infarction in the United States: 1999 to 2020.

The incidence of premature myocardial infarction (PMI) in women (<65 years and men <55 years) is increasing. We investigated proportionate mortality trends in PMI stratified by sex, race, and ethnicity. CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify PMI deaths within the United States between 1999 and 2020, and trends in proportionate mortality of PMI were calculated using the Joinpoint regression analysis. We identified 3 017 826 acute myocardial infarction deaths, with 373 317 PMI deaths corresponding to proportionate mortality of 12.5% (men 12%, women 14%). On trend analysis, proportionate mortality of PMI increased from 10.5% in 1999 to 13.2% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 1.0 [0.8-1.2, P <0.01]) with a significant increase in women from 10% in 1999 to 17% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 2.4 [1.8-3.0, P <0.01]) and no significant change in men, 11% in 1999 to 10% in 2020 (average annual percent change of -0.2 [-0.7 to 0.3, P=0.4]). There was a significant increase in proportionate mortality in both Black and White populations, with no difference among American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, or Hispanic people. American Indian/Alaska Natives had the highest PMI mortality with no significant change over time. Over the last 2 decades, there has been a significant increase in the proportionate mortality of PMI in women and the Black population, with persistently high PMI in American Indian/Alaska Natives, despite an overall downtrend in acute myocardial infarction-related mortality. Further research to determine the underlying cause of these differences in PMI mortality is required to improve the outcomes after acute myocardial infarction in these populations.

Trends in genitourinary cancer mortality in the United States: analysis of the CDC-WONDER database 1999-2020.

Sociodemographic disparities in genitourinary cancer-related mortality have been insufficiently studied, particularly across multiple cancer types. This study aimed to investigate gender, racial, and geographic disparities in mortality rates for the most common genitourinary cancers in the United States. Mortality data for prostate, bladder, kidney, and testicular cancers were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER database between 1999 and 2020. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were analyzed by year, gender, race, urban-rural status, and geographic region using a significance level of p < 0.05. Overall, AAMRs for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer declined significantly, while testicular cancer-related mortality remained stable. Bladder and kidney cancer AAMRs were 3-4 times higher in males than females. Prostate cancer mortality was highest in black individuals/African Americans and began increasing after 2015. Bladder cancer mortality decreased significantly in White individuals, Black individuals, African Americans, and Asians/Pacific Islanders but remained stable in American Indian/Alaska Natives. Kidney cancer-related mortality was highest in White individuals but declined significantly in other races. Testicular cancer mortality increased significantly in White individuals but remained stable in Black individuals and African Americans. Genitourinary cancer mortality decreased in metropolitan areas but either increased (bladder and testicular cancer) or remained stable (kidney cancer) in non-metropolitan areas. Prostate and kidney cancer mortality was highest in the Midwest, bladder cancer in the South, and testicular cancer in the West. Significant sociodemographic disparities exist in the mortality trends of genitourinary cancers in the United States. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions and further research to address these disparities and improve outcomes for all populations affected by genitourinary cancers.

Epidemiology and prognostic nomogram for locally advanced gastric signet ring cell carcinoma: A population-based study.

Gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC) represents a specific subtype of gastric cancer renowned for its contentious epidemiological features, treatment principles, and prognostic factors. To investigate the epidemiology of GSRC and establish an improved model for predicting the prognosis of patients with locally advanced GSRC (LAGSRC) after surgery. The annual rates of GSRC incidence and mortality, covering the years 1975 to 2019, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to explore the temporal trends in both disease incidence and mortality rates using Joinpoint software. The clinical data of 3793 postoperative LAGSRC patients were collected from the SEER database for the analysis of survival rates. The Cox regression model was used to explore the independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). The risk factors extracted were used to establish a prognostic nomogram. The overall incidence of GSRC increased dramatically between 1975 and 1998, followed by a significant downward trend in incidence after 1998. In recent years, there has been a similarly optimistic trend in GSRC mortality rates. The trend in GSRC showed discrepancies based on age and sex. Receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS demonstrated the high discriminative ability and clinical utility of this nomogram. The area under the curve indicated that the performance of the new model outperformed that of the pathological staging system. The model we established can aid clinicians in the early prognostication of LAGSRC patients, resulting in improved clinical outcomes by modifying management strategies and patient health care.

Mortality trends in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in Europe between 2013 and 2018.

Previous research has suggested that the incidence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is increasing in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere. The aim of this study is to provide contemporary estimates of IPF mortality rates across 24 European Countries from 2013 to 2018, using death certificates data from the European Statistics Institution (EUROSTAT) database. We extracted country data for IPF (International Classification of Diseases 10th Edition, ICD-10, code "J84.1") mortality from the EUROSTAT dataset. We calculated country- age- and sex-specific death registration rates between 2013 and 2018. We used direct standardisation to compare rates between countries. We calculated annual trends in mortality rate ratios using a segmented regression model. The overall standardised mortality rate in EU Countries during this period was 3.90 per 10 0000 person-years (95%, CI 3.80-3.90), with the rate raising from 3.70 in the 2013 to 4.00 in the 2018 (average annual percent change: 1.74%, 95% CI 0.91-2.59). We observed substantial inter-country differences, with the highest rates detected in Ireland, the UK, and Finland, the lowest rate in Bulgaria, and middle rates in Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Slovenia. In summary, the IPF mortality rate is increasing across Europe. There are currently more than 17 000 deaths recorded from IPF each year in Europe but the marked geographical differences we observed suggest that this figure may underestimate the true rate considerably.

A longitudinal mixed effects model for assessing mortality trends during vaccine rollout

The rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) initially presented unprecedented challenges for clinicians, policymakers, and healthcare systems, as there was limited evidence on the efficacy of various control measures. This study endeavors to provide a detailed and comprehensive overview of the global progression of the COVID-19 mortality in the context of vaccine rollout, utilizing public surveillance data from 145 countries sourced from the World Health Organization and the World Bank. The primary focus is to analyze shifts in the trend of new COVID-19 mortality worldwide before and after the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines. To achieve this, we propose a longitudinal mixed effects model aimed at elucidating the relationship between mortality trend and vaccination rollout, alongside other pertinent covariates. Our modeling approach seeks to accommodate variations in the timing of COVID-19 vaccine rollout among countries, as well as the correlation of observations from within the same country. Our findings highlight the significant impact of new cases, cardiovascular death rate, senior population, stringency index, and reproduction rate on mortality. However, we find that the impact of vaccination is not statistically significant, as evidenced by a relatively large p-value. Furthermore, the study reveals substantial disparities in mortality rates among countries across four income groups.

Trends in injury-related mortality among residents of Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis.

We investigated the temporal trends and examined age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects of injury-related deaths among residents in Jiangsu to provide evidence for future injury prevention. This study included 406,936 injury deaths from the Jiangsu provincial population death registration system. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) was analyzed using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were generated to explore the effects of age, period, and birth cohort effects on mortality risk. ASMRs for all injuries (AAPC = -2.3%), road traffic accidents (AAPC = -5.3%), suicide (AAPC = -3.8%), and drowning (AAPC = -3.9%) showed a downward trend during 2012-2021(all p < 0.05), while unintentional falls showed an upward trend (AAPC = 5.1%, p < 0.05). From 2012 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for four primary types of injuries consistently exhibited higher among males compared to females, with rural regions displaying higher ASMRs than urban areas. Trends in ASMRs for road traffic accidents, drowning, and unintentional falls by sex and urban/rural areas were consistent with overall trends. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were identified in the trends of injury-related deaths for both sexes in Jiangsu. The age effect showed that the highest age effect for injury-related deaths was for the ages of 85 years and above, except for suicide, which was for the ages 80-84 years. Between 2012 and 2021, the period effect on road traffic accidents declined, while that on accidental falls increased. Initially, the period effect on suicide decreased but then rose, peaking in 2012 with a Relative Risk (RR) of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04-1.19). Similarly, the period effect on drowning initially declined before rising, with the highest effect observed in 2013, at an RR of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.07-1.19). The highest cohort effects for road traffic accidents were observed in the 1957-1961 group, for accidental falls in the 1952-1956 group, and for both drowning and suicide in the 1927-1931 group. The mortality rate of unintentional falls has been increasing. Older adults are at high risk for the four leading injuries. The improvements in mortality rates can be attributed to advancements in education, urbanization, and the promulgation and implementation of laws and policies.

Cardiovascular mortality among patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a population-based study

We aim to investigate cardiovascular mortality risk among diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients and explore cardiovascular mortality trends in the past decades in United States. We extracted data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for adult patients diagnosed with DLBCL between 1975 and 2019. Standardized mortality ratio, joinpoint regression analysis, and competing risk model were analyzed. Overall, 49,918 patients were enrolled, of whom 4167 (8.3%) cardiovascular deaths were observed, which was 1.22 times the number expected (95%CI, 1.19–1.26). During 1985–2019, the incidence-based cardiovascular mortality rate increased by 0.98% per year (95%CI, 0.58–1.39%), with statistically significant increases in age groups younger than 75 years. The cumulative mortality from cardiovascular disease increased by age but never exceeded that from DLBCL. Older age, male sex, earlier year of diagnosis, lower tumor stage at diagnosis, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery were all poor prognostic factors for cardiovascular mortality.

Differences urban versus non-urban trends in mortality from ischemic heart disease and diabetes in Italy and Spain, 2003-2019.

In recent years, mortality from ischemic heart disease and diabetes has decreased. There is an inequality in mortality reduction between urban and non-urban areas. This study aims to estimate the trend in mortality from ischemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus in urban and non-urban areas in Italy and Spain, throughout the first two decades of the 21st century. Deaths and population data by age and sex, according to the area de residence, were obtained from the National Institutes of Statistics. Annual age-standardized mortality rates from ischemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus were calculated from 2003 to 2019, in each of the two areas of residence in both countries. The average annual percentage change (APC) in the mortality rate in each area was estimated using linear regression models and taking age-standardized mortality rates as dependent variable. Mortality rates from both causes of death decreased between the beginning and the end of the period analysed. In Italy, the APC in was -4.0% and -3.6% in mortality rate from ischemic heart disease and -1.5% and -1.3% in mortality rate from diabetes mellitus, in urban and non-urban areas, respectively. In Spain, the APC in was -4.4% and -3.7% in mortality rate from ischemic heart disease and -3.3% and -2.0% in mortality rate from diabetes mellitus, in urban and non-urban areas, respectively. Mortality from ischemic heart disease and mortality from diabetes have shown a greater reduction in urban than in non-urban areas since the first years of the 21st century in Spain and Italy.

Analysis and prediction of epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021

Objective: The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed, and the tuberculosis mortality rate from 2022 to 2027 was predicted to provide a reference for tuberculosis prevention and control in China. Methods: The data set of tuberculosis deaths from 2006 to 2021 was published regularly by the China CDC, and the crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated according to the population structure of China in 2000. The distribution characteristics of age, sex, region, and time of tuberculosis deaths were analyzed, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze the changing trend, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. Results: From 2006 to 2021, the CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis showed a downward trend among males and females, urban and rural areas, and all age groups, in a word, all the Chinese residents. Except for the age group ≥85 years old, the mortality trend was insignificant. In the eastern, central, or western regions. CMR and ASMR were significantly higher in males than in females.CMR and ASMR were significantly lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In general, active tuberculosis patients present a higher mortality rate. The CMR and ASMR in the western region were higher than those in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern region than in the central region, but the differences were less obvious. The ASMR of the eastern cities was lower than that of the central and western regions, and the ASMR of the central cities was higher than that of the western region from 2006 to 2009 and 2012 and lower than that of the western region in other years. The ASMR in the western countryside was higher than that in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern part than in the central region, but the difference was not obvious. The grey model prediction results show that the CMR (/100 000) of Chinese residents from 2022 to 2027 is 1.585, 1.471, 1.360, 1.250, 1.143, and 1.038, and the ASMR (/100 000) is 0.779, 0.653, 0.531, 0.411, 0.295 and 0.181, respectively. Conclusions: The CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis will continue to decline, and extraordinary achievements have been made in tuberculosis prevention and control in Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and, presumably, from 2022 to 2027. However, tuberculosis screening and treatment programs in the western region, men, the elderly population, and rural areas should be further strengthened, and targeted prevention and control measures should be formulated to reduce mortality.

Trends in drug overdose deaths in Mexico (1999–2019). A national descriptive analysis and interstate comparison

BackgroundWe assess trends in overdose mortality rates in Mexico from 1999 to 2019 and identify the states with the highest overdose mortality rates over time. MethodsThe analysis using mortality statistics examined deaths related to drug use. We estimated general overdose mortality rates at the national and state levels and calculated specific mortality rates associated with opioid and stimulant use using central rate estimation. We used joinpoint regression to analyse national and state-specific trends in overdose mortality from 1999 to 2019. FindingsNationally, the general overdose mortality rate increased annually by 10.49 % (p < 0.01, CI=11.4–18.9) from 2015 to 2019. The northern states of Baja California and Chihuahua were the states with the higher annual increases (18.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=4.2–29.6; and 15.6 %, p < 0.01, CI=12.9–19.7, respectively). By substance type, the national opioid-related mortality rate increased by 29.82 % per year from 2014 to 2019 (p < 0.01; CI=20.1–40.3), compared with an annual decrease of 11.43 % in the previous period (2005–2014) (p < 0.01; CI=-14.7- 8.0). Baja California was the state with the highest rise in opioid-related mortality from 2013 to 2019, with an annual increase of 15.84 % (p < 0.01; CI=1.4–32.3). Stimulant-related mortality increased by 21.79 % per year since 2013 (p < 0.01; CI=16.9–26.9), but it was not possible to calculate state-level trends. ConclusionsDrug-related mortality rates have increased in Mexico since 2015, particularly in the northern states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora and Sinaloa. Improving harm reduction programmes and local surveillance of fatal and non-fatal overdoses is essential to address the silent escalation of overdose mortality.