Analysis and prediction of epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021

Abstract

Objective: The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed, and the tuberculosis mortality rate from 2022 to 2027 was predicted to provide a reference for tuberculosis prevention and control in China. Methods: The data set of tuberculosis deaths from 2006 to 2021 was published regularly by the China CDC, and the crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated according to the population structure of China in 2000. The distribution characteristics of age, sex, region, and time of tuberculosis deaths were analyzed, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze the changing trend, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. Results: From 2006 to 2021, the CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis showed a downward trend among males and females, urban and rural areas, and all age groups, in a word, all the Chinese residents. Except for the age group ≥85 years old, the mortality trend was insignificant. In the eastern, central, or western regions. CMR and ASMR were significantly higher in males than in females.CMR and ASMR were significantly lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In general, active tuberculosis patients present a higher mortality rate. The CMR and ASMR in the western region were higher than those in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern region than in the central region, but the differences were less obvious. The ASMR of the eastern cities was lower than that of the central and western regions, and the ASMR of the central cities was higher than that of the western region from 2006 to 2009 and 2012 and lower than that of the western region in other years. The ASMR in the western countryside was higher than that in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern part than in the central region, but the difference was not obvious. The grey model prediction results show that the CMR (/100 000) of Chinese residents from 2022 to 2027 is 1.585, 1.471, 1.360, 1.250, 1.143, and 1.038, and the ASMR (/100 000) is 0.779, 0.653, 0.531, 0.411, 0.295 and 0.181, respectively. Conclusions: The CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis will continue to decline, and extraordinary achievements have been made in tuberculosis prevention and control in Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and, presumably, from 2022 to 2027. However, tuberculosis screening and treatment programs in the western region, men, the elderly population, and rural areas should be further strengthened, and targeted prevention and control measures should be formulated to reduce mortality.