We study a model of bird migration between the summer breeding ground and the winter refuge site. The model involves time lags for the transition time between the patches, and the model parameters are periodic in time as the biological activities related to the migration and reproduction are seasonal. It has been shown in previous studies that the model system exhibits threshold dynamics: either all solutions converge to the trivial solution, or the system has a positive and globally attractive periodic solution. Two issues remain and will be addressed in this paper: how to express the threshold condition in terms of model parameters explicitly (rather than the abstract spectral radius of a certain monodromy operator) and how to describe the temporal pattern of the positive periodic solution. We make an interesting and surprising observation that the delay differential system is completely characterized by a finite-dimensional ordinary differential system and then a finite-dimensional map in the sense that the bird population at the initial time of spring migration determines the future status of the system. As a consequence, we derive the threshold condition, explicitly in terms of the model parameters, for the extinction and persistence of the considered bird species.
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