Monetary Policy Dynamics Research Articles

Understanding Deflationary Trends in China: Internal and External Factors Analysis

This paper investigates the recent deflationary trend observed in China, exploring its underlying causes from both internal and external perspectives. Since the 1970s, China has undergone significant economic reforms, embraced market principles and experienced a substantial expansion in its money supply. Despite expectations of inflation due to the substantial money supply relative to GDP, China has experienced a period of low or negative inflation rates since April 2023. This study examines potential factors contributing to this deflationary period, including exchange rate fluctuations, monetary policy dynamics, economic structural shifts, and external shocks. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the development of transmission routes of monetary policy and possible impacts on the responsiveness of price level to money supply, particularly within the context of China's evolving financial system. Additionally, it analyses shifts in the key drivers of the Chinese economyinvestment, net exports, and consumptionand their role in exacerbating deflationary pressures. The study extends its analysis to February 2024, observing potential signs of a transition away from deflation. It emphasizes the risks associated with deflation and the Chinese government's efforts to balance inflation targets with economic stability and employment objectives, particularly in light of challenges in the real estate sector.

Editorial for the Special Issue of Comparative Economic Studies: 50 Years After the End of Bretton Woods—The Experiences of Small Open Economies

AbstractThis special issue of Comparative Economic Studies, commemorating fifty years since the end of the Bretton Woods system, examines the adjustment of small open economies to floating exchange rates and new monetary policy frameworks. Based on a workshop held at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute in June 2023, six papers analyse dimensions such as the evolution of monetary policy regimes, the impact of economic crises and the use of unconventional monetary policies in Canada, Israel, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. The findings highlight the benefits and limitations of inflation targeting, the challenges of global financial integration and the strategic responses of central banks to maintain stability and independence, providing policymakers with valuable insights into the complex dynamics of monetary policy in the post-Bretton Woods era.

BEYOND DEVELOPED AND EMERGING: UNPACKING POLICYLENDING RATE DISCONNECTIONS AND INFLATION IN TURKIYE WITH A DIVERSE GLOBAL CAST

The study examines the impact of the divergence between policy rates and lending rates on inflation in Turkey, with a specific focus on the role of adaptive expectations. The analysis covers a long period, from January 2003 to January 2023, and includes six countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, US, UK and Turkey. The study finds that there is a persistent and significant divergence between policy rates and lending rates in Turkey. Additionally, the depreciation of the currency has a significant impact on lending rates in Turkey, as it increases both the cost of borrowing for banks and the cost of funding for businesses and consumers. Moreover, the study suggests that adaptive expectations play an important role in the relationship between policy rates, lending rates, and inflation. Past inflation rates have a significant impact on current inflation expectations, which, in turn, influences the inflation rate. This phenomenon is exacerbated by borrowers demanding higher lending rates to compensate for the increased risk in an environment of high inflation and uncertain policy, further widening the gap between policy rates and lending rates. The study's findings provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of monetary policy, lending rates, inflation, and the exchange rate in soft currency economies such as Turkey. The results highlight the importance of addressing the issue of the divergence between policy rates and lending rates, while taking into account the impact of adaptive expectations and the exchange rate on inflation dynamics.

A multiresolution analysis of NeoFisher effects in industrialized economies: Have monetary policy dynamics being misconstrued in the west?

Central Banks in major industrialized economies have struggled to keep inflation within their target ranges since the global financial crisis. The periods of missing inflation and deflation experienced in the post-crisis era have led to doubts about the traditional Fisher effect as a crucial component of the policy reaction function. We explore the NeoFisherian theory, which suggests an alternative causal relationship between the policy rate and inflation. We focus on the USA, UK, and EU and apply wavelet coherence analysis to examine the time–frequency lead–lag comovements on data spanning from January 2007 to March 2023. Our findings indicate increasing NeoFisherian dynamics, notably post-2013 taper tantrum, implying that Central Banks in industrialized economies have misunderstood monetary policy dynamics.

Analyzing the dynamics of monetary policy and economic growth in Ethiopia: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Numerous studies conducted by various scholars have aimed to ascertain the impact of monetary policy on economic growth. However, these empirical investigations have not reached a unanimous consensus. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of monetary policy. To address this objective, this study employed ARDL and error correction model (ECM) based on annual data from 1993 to 2022. Granger causality test was also employed to check the direction of causal effects of one variable on the other variable. All required pre and post estimation tests were performed and verified that the model was statistically viable. The study revealed that, in the short run, deposit interest rate, reserve required amount, and open market operation have positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, money supply has negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. In the long run, money supply has positive and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia; however, deposit interest rate and reserve required have negative and statistically significant effects on real GDP growth of Ethiopia. To sum up, in the short run, contractionary monetary policy was promising, and in the long run, expansionary monetary policy was favorable for economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows that there is bidirectional causality between monetary policy and economic growth; except there was a unidirectional relationship between deposit interest rate and economic growth. Ultimately, this research suggests the following policy recommendation: for short-term economic enhancement, it is advisable for the government to opt for a contractionary monetary policy rather than an expansionary one. On the other hand, for long-term economic improvement, an expansionary monetary policy is more favorable than a contractionary one.

MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN BANGLADESH: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH

This study delves into the impact of monetary policy on the economic performance of Bangladesh, utilizing data derived from audited annual reports of the Bangladesh Bank covering the years 2014 to 2022. The central focus of the analysis revolves around Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable, with money supply growth, real interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and repo rate considered as independent variables. Employing two regression models, namely Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), the research aims to explore the relationships among these variables. In the OLS regression model, significant associations are identified between GDP and real interest rates, inflation rate, and the repo rate. However, no statistically significant relationships are observed between GDP and money supply growth or the exchange rate. On the contrary, the ARIMA regression model indicates statistical significance for all variables, except the exchange rate, concerning their impact on GDP. These findings suggest that monetary policy plays a substantial role in shaping the economic growth of Bangladesh, with real interest rates, inflation rates, and repo rates exerting particular influence. The lack of a significant relationship between the exchange rate and GDP in the ARIMA model implies that other factors, potentially external to the country, may have a more dominant influence on exchange rate dynamics during the study period. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between monetary policy and economic performance in Bangladesh, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.

MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCES FROM BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION WITH STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY

In this paper, we examine the dynamics of monetary policy in Nigeria with Bayesian approach to a vector autoregression (VAR). We construct and estimate Bayesian Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility (BVAR-SV) model and extract important policy inputs from the model. Nigeria economy is unstable and it is a known fact that changes to monetary policy affects performance of some macroeconomic variables. The BVAR has the ability to capture sudden changes and nonlinearities arising from the interaction among macroeconomic variables and associated shocks. The study uses monthly data during the period 2003M01 till 2023M12 with three macroeconomic variables namely; inflation rate, money supply, and interest rate. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows for Bayesian estimation and prediction is employed. Results show that there is strong evidence of monetary policy playing a significant role in explaining the dynamics of interest rate while the impulse responses for the variables to a monetary policy shock do change significantly over time. Also, the monetary policy exert less significant influence in terms of money supply and inflation than interest rate in explaining the dynamics in of monetary policy. It is recommended that BVAR should be also be extended to other macroeconomic variables to examine the effects on monetary policy dynamics.

Monetary Policy Dynamics and the Nigeria’s Global Competitiveness: The Missing Link

Despite the series of monetary policies adopted by the Nigerian government over time, the (Nigerian) economy in comparison to other countries in the world like South Africa, the USA, Ghana, and the like is still improvised. Still, inconsistency between monetary policy formulation and implementation remains another major issues yet unattended to. It is in this regards that, the current study is dedicated towards examining the effect of monetary policy dynamics and the Nigeria’s global competitiveness from 1992 to 2021 (i.e., 30 years) using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study disclosed that, the variables are integrated at level and first difference while the ARDL Bound test evidenced that, the series cointegrates. Specifically, monetary policy rate has a positive minimal effect on Nigeria’s global competitiveness, while the CRR improved Nigeria’s global competitiveness significantly. However, both lending rates and exchange rates have a significant negative effect on economic competitiveness. Consequently, the paper concludes that both the cash reserve ratio and the Nigeria’s demeaning state are attributed to the high exchange rate (EXR) and high lending rates. Thus, the paper submits that the current monetary policy rates are sustained and that all DMBS should adhere to the stipulated Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) since it has improved the Nigeria’s global competitiveness significantly. Lastly, the study confirmed that, the missing link is the policy surmount on the part of the Nigerian government.

Monetary Policy Dynamics and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Indonesia's Economy using Time-Series Data and Error Correction Model (ECM)

This study investigates the relationship between monetary policy variables and GDP growth in Indonesia using time-series data from 1986 to 2021. Employing the Error Correction Model (ECM) framework, the research explores the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables and identifies significant monetary policy instruments that drive economic growth. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between monetary policy variables and GDP growth, indicating the sustained impact of monetary policy on Indonesia's economic performance. Specifically, the core finding highlights the significance of the inflation rate, exchange rate, and total reserves as influential monetary policy instruments driving growth in Indonesia. This finding helps policymakers better understanding about the relationship between monetary policy and economic development in the context of Indonesia by offering insightful information. By utilizing an extensive time-series dataset and employing the ECM methodology, this study contributes to the existing literature on the role of monetary policy in shaping economic growth, particularly in Indonesia.

The analysis of causality analysis of money supply (M2) and interest rate (BI Rate) in Indonesia: an empirical study in 1990-2021

This research investigates the causal relationship between the Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate and the Money Supply (M2) in Indonesia, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2022. The study reveals that an increase in the Money Supply (M2) directly impacts the BI Rate, a policy instrument employed by Bank Indonesia to manage and curb inflation. Moreover, through the rigorous application of Granger Causality Tests, the research demonstrates that the relationship between the BI Rate and Money Supply (M2) is bidirectional. This bidirectional relationship implies that changes in the interest rate influence the money supply and vice versa. These findings provide valuable insights into monetary policy dynamics and its implications for the Indonesian economy.

Research on the construction and influence mechanism of China's monetary policy index

Monetary policy has always been a hot research topic, but how to measure monetary policy is still a big difference. This paper transforms the price and quantitative monetary policy tools into a unified index form, constructs a new monetary policy index, and studies the influence mechanism of monetary policy through the vector autoregression model. The study found that China's monetary policy index has experienced a process of first rising, slightly falling back to the platform, and then gradually falling, and the overall trend is consistent with the macroeconomic situation of China in different historical periods. At the same time, the positive impact of industrial added value and inflation will lead to the marginal tightening of monetary policy, and the industrial added value will have a greater impact on the dynamics of monetary policy and last for a longer time. In addition, inflation also indirectly affects monetary policy. This paper is of great significance to understand the trend of monetary policy and to conduct investment decision-making activities.

Functioning trends of the state banks of Ukraine in the current conditions

This article is devoted to the consideration of current trends in the functioning of state-owned banks in Ukraine. The main internal and external problems faced by Ukrainian banking institutions, including state ones, with the beginning of a large-scale invasion and military aggression, are identified. The nationalization and liquidation of banks operating profitably in Ukraine (in particular Alfa-Bank JSC), which was carried out for the first time due to political factors caused by the war, is described. The owners of such banks were citizens of the aggressor country, were under sanctions and could negatively affect the stability of the Ukrainian banking sector.The strategic goals of state banks during the period of martial law and post-war economic recovery are given. The main performance indicators of state-owned banks have been analyzed for the last time. It is noted that state banks attract more than half of all deposits from clients of the country's banking sector, but they invest the majority of their assets in state securities, thus minimizing the risks of their own active operations and helping to finance state budget projects. State banks are leaders in the implementation of state preferential programs, in particular, «Affordable loans 5–7–9%» and «eOselya», which help restore credit and investment financing of economic development processes. The share of state banks in the country's banking sector in various areas of their activity has been determined. The possibilities and potential contribution of state-owned banks to the post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy are described. It is the state banks that are the leaders in the market of banking services in Ukraine, which enable the state authorities in the extremely difficult conditions of the war to react quickly and implement the necessary changes in the work of the banking sector, with the aim of stabilizing it and influencing the dynamics of monetary policy in the country. Ukrainian state banks work according to a universal business model and cover customer service of all market segments, but potentially they should become state development banks that will contribute to economic growth and sustainable development of our country.

WEST AFRICAN MONETARY POLICY, EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DYNAMICS: AN S-VAR MODEL

As a result of the West African region's continuous political and economic instability, various economies have used monetary policy changes to respond to shocks from macroeconomic causes. Scholars disagree on the mechanisms of monetary policy, external shocks, and macroeconomic activity links in an economy, according to the available literature in both inter-regional and intra-regional evaluations. This article promotes understanding and management of external shocks in monetary policy by focusing on two key goals. (1) To investigate external shocks, macroeconomic performance, and the dynamics of monetary policy in Western African countries. (2) Use the S-VAR method of estimate to investigate the impact of these economic indices on monetary policy dynamics in Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, and Niger. The S-VAR method was chosen because it is useful for analysing macroeconomic shocks and monetary policy transmission. The findings reveal that the West African countries are so interconnected, any change in the price of non-oil commodities would have a significant impact on the exchange rate, which will be channelled through policy rates to GDP. We recommend and emphasise the need of diversifying member countries' productive and export bases rather than continuing to rely on one or a few items as the primary source of income.

Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets

How does emerging markets’ (EMs) monetary policy respond to global financial risk (GFR) shocks? Despite the broad literature focusing on EM monetary policy dynamics, the existing evidence on the cyclicality and drivers of EM monetary policy response to GFR shocks is still inconclusive. Using macro-financial data from four inflation targeting EMs and a small-open economy SVAR model, we provide a clear pattern of EM monetary policy response to GFR shocks by highlighting the novel role of the risk-taking channel and identifying the drivers of EM monetary policy response. We find that EM monetary authorities initially respond procyclically to GFR shocks, due to movements in sovereign risk and exchange rate that threaten financial stability through a risk-taking mechanism. This (initial) procyclical policy response can also be explained by the observed inflation dynamics and liability dollarization. Finally, our results also document a novel role of sovereign risk in EM exchange rate dynamics. • Evidence on EM monetary policy response to GFR shocks is inconclusive. • Previous studies also overlook the role of the risk-taking channel. • This study fills this gap by providing a key role of the risk-taking channel. • This channel forces EM authorities to respond procyclically to GFR shocks. • Sovereign risk plays a novel role in EM exchange rate dynamics.

Covid-19 and The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Quantitative Easing Indonesia

The basis for this research is to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesian financial markets and the dynamics of monetary policy. Focus on monetary policy conducted by Bank Indonesia regarding Quantitative Easing . The study was conducted using balance sheet information from a sample of 38 private foreign exchange banks in Indonesia to then find out whether policies have an effect on " loan growth ", and how the response to bank loan growth is in responding to the crisis episode caused by the COVID-19 pandemic . The data is taken from the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. Using panel data, a cross section of thirty-eight banks and time series data . This research found. First, the securities of Bank Indonesia conducted Quantitative Easing at the beginning of the year, until September 2020 amounting to Rp. 666 trillion resulted in an increase in total banking assets. Second, the Covid-19 factor has become a significant negative factor for credit growth amid the QE policies that have been carried out by Bank Indonesia. Third, the total bank deposit has a negative correlation with the rate of credit growth but is not significant. Finally, the overall analysis of this research shows that QE (Quantitative Easing) has a small impact on loan growth ( loan growth ) even though it has included the bank health factor ( Bank Health ) which represents the trust factor in the banking system.

Covid-19, Financial Market Vulnerabilities and Dynamics Monetary Policy: Comparative Analysis

This study aims to analyze a comparative study of the response of the Indonesian and Malaysian Financial Markets to the dynamics of Monetary Policy implemented during the COVID-19 Pandemic during January 2019 to June 2021. This study builds three e.i interbank money market, bond market, and stock market. The methodology of this study is Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The result shows that COVID-19 has no effect on financial markets, either in Indonesia or in Malaysia. However, when the lockdown was implemented in Malaysia, it had a significant effect on the Malaysian bond market. Furthermore, monetary policy with interest rate instruments has a significant and negative effect on the stock market in Indonesia. The monetary policy through the reserve ratio has a significant and positive effect on the Malaysian bond market. It suggests that there are differences in the dynamics of monetary between Indonesia and Malaysia so that they have different impacts on their respective financial markets.

The Role of Monetary Instruments to Financial Market in the Pandemic Covid Era

Purpose: This paper aimed to analyze the financial market reaction towards monetary instruments during the pandemic covid era. We employ Malaysian data. Methodology: We develop the financial market into three models, namely the interbank money market, bond market, and stock market. We used ordinary least squares as the research methodology. The type of data used is a monthly time series from January 31, 2019, to June 30, 2021. Findings: The study found that the dynamics of monetary policy through policy interest rates and reserve requirements have a significant effect on financial markets in Malaysia, particularly on the interbank money market and bond market. Meanwhile, when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic, government bond yields are influenced by the implementation of the minimum reserve policy. Originality/Value: We focus on dynamic monetary instruments in Malaysia. The main instruments are the overnight policy rate and reserve requirement ratio. We employ the linkage of covid and monetary instruments as an independent variable to capture the effect of monetary policy in the pandemic covid era.

Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model

Resulting from the incessant political and economic uncertainty that bedevils the EAC region in the recent past, the various governments have used monetary policy changes in response to shocks from macroeconomic variables. However, the available literature shows a non-agreement by scholars as far as the dynamics in monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic activity connections are concerned, for both country-by-country analyses and regional assessments. This article widens the frontiers of knowledge about how the dynamics of monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic performance interact within the EAC economic region. We adopted the S-VAR method because of its contemporary nature as far as a transmission of monetary policy approach is concerned. The interconnectivity among the countries of EAC is an indication that any shock to the price of commodities (non-oil commodities) has significant implication on the exchange rate, which will be channelled through the supply of money and monetary policy to the GDP. The need to diversify the productive and export base of member countries, compared to the continuous dependence on one or a few products as the major source of income, is hereby advocated.

Analysing the Impact of the Monetary Policy Dynamics on Financial Imbalances- A Model Approach

This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirically examination of the financial sector to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, my findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been one source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

The Dynamics of Monetary Policy

The Dynamics of Monetary Policy