Moisture Budget Research Articles

Subseasonal Meteorological Drought Development over the Central United States during Spring

AbstractDiagnosis of rapidly developing springtime droughts in the central United States has mostly been made via numerous individual case studies rather than in an aggregate sense. This study investigates common aspects of subseasonal “meteorological drought” evolution, here defined as persistent precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P− ET) deficits, revealed in early (1 April–15 May) and late (16 May–30 June) spring composites of 5-day running mean JRA-55 reanalysis data for three different central U.S. regions during 1958–2018. On average, these droughts are initiated by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet (RWP), propagating from the western North Pacific, which arises about a week prior to drought onset. The RWP is related to a persistent ridge west of the incipient drought region and strong subsidence over it. This subsidence is associated with low-level divergent flow that dries the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation for roughly 1–2 weeks, and generally has a greater impact on the local moisture budget than does reduced poleward moisture transport. The resulting “dynamically driven” evaporative demand corresponds to a rapid drying of the root-zone soil moisture, which decreases around 40 percentiles within about 10 days. Anomalous near-surface warmth develops only after theP− ET deficit onset, as does anomalously low soil moisture that then lingers a month or more, especially in late spring. The horizontal scale of the RWPs, and of the related drought anomalies, decreases from early to late spring, consistent with the climatological change in the Pacific Rossby waveguide. Finally, while this composite analysis is based upon strong, persistentP− ET deficits, it still appears to capture much of the springtime development of “flash droughts” as well.

Evaluations of the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project model performance on precipitation over Southeast Asia based on the moisture budget

AbstractThis study evaluated the performance of the climatological precipitation over Southeast Asia using an ensemble of 48 global climate models/earth system models from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) suite of experiments. Multi‐source observational data sets were used to evaluate the historical simulation data of the CMIP6 ensembles towards the semi‐year mean of precipitation during November–April (NDJFMA) and May–October (MJJASO). The results indicate that the CMIP6 models were able to reproduce the large‐scale monsoonal features. Precipitation is overestimated over most eastern ocean areas in NDJFMA and over most areas in MJJASO. In terms of the ensemble bias and inter‐model uncertainty, the diagnosis of moisture budget indicates the dominant item is the dynamic convergence and the other important items have dynamic advection and evaporation. The main types of pattern bias were examined through the inter‐model empirical orthogonal function analysis, which is correlated with the global sea surface temperature and moisture flux. The climatological evaluation yielded a higher pattern correlation and a lower root‐mean square error in NDJFMA than MJJASO. Most of the models have greater standard deviations among the spatial grids than observations, especially in NDJFMA. The models with higher resolutions showed a better performance than those with lower resolutions. A model performance index is defined for the convenient comparison, the best three models are CNRM‐CM6‐1, EC‐Earth3‐Veg and NorESM2‐MM, and the worst three are INM‐CM4‐8, AWI‐ESM‐1‐1‐LR and MCM‐UA‐1‐0. This evaluation study provided useful analytics in understanding model behaviour and processes related to rainfall mechanisms which could be further examined in high‐resolution downscaling experiments in future studies.

The Physics of Heat Waves: What Causes Extremely High Summertime Temperatures?

Abstract We analyze observations and develop a hierarchy of models to understand heat waves—long-lived, high temperature anomalies—and extremely high daily temperatures during summertime in the continental extratropics. Throughout the extratropics, the number of extremely hot days found in the three hottest months is much greater than expected from a random, single-process model. Furthermore, in many locations the temperature skewness switches from negative on daily time scales to positive on monthly time scales (or shifts from positive on daily time scales to higher positive values on monthly time scales) in ways that cannot be explained by averaging alone. These observations motivate a hierarchy of models of the surface energy and moisture budgets that we use to illuminate the physics responsible for daily and monthly averaged temperature variability. Shortwave radiation fluctuations drive much of the variance and the negative skewness found in daily temperature observations. On longer time scales, precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies are important for temperature variability and account for the shift toward positive skewness in monthly averaged temperature. Our results demonstrate that long-lived heat waves are due to (i) the residence time of soil moisture anomalies and (ii) a nonlinear feedback between temperature and evapotranspiration via the impact of temperature on vapor pressure deficit. For most climates, these two processes give rise to infrequent, long-lived heat waves in response to randomly distributed precipitation forcing. Combined with our results concerning high-frequency variability, extremely hot days are seen to be state-independent filigree driven by shortwave variability acting on top of longer-lived, moisture-driven heat waves.

Analysis of the July 2021 extreme precipitation in Henan using the novel moisture budget equation

Analysis of the July 2021 extreme precipitation in Henan using the novel moisture budget equation

Transient Precipitation Increase During Winter in the Eastern North America

AbstractPrevious studies have reported that enhanced eddy moisture convergence causes future increase of winter precipitation in the eastern North America in a warmer climate. This study investigates the mechanisms of the change in moisture convergence. Using ensemble simulations from climate models and composite analysis of moisture budget, we show that in the southeast United States, two thirds of the enhanced moisture convergence is caused by local thermodynamics due to increase of moisture, while one third is caused by stronger eddy wind convergence. In the north, it is primarily caused by the increase of moisture gradient associated with the spatial distribution of both the climatological temperature and the large amplitudes of the eddy temperature in the region of the storm tracks. Results help to better understand the physical mechanism of more winter precipitation in the eastern North America in a warmer climate.

Drying tendency over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades: role of a CGT-like atmospheric change

A significant drying tendency over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (SSTP) in summer (especially in July–September) during 1980–2018 is identified in this study. Moisture budget analysis reveals that the drying tendency is dominated by a decreased vertical moisture advection due to weakened upward motion, which is mainly resulted from an anticyclonic trend appeared over the northeastern TP. This anomalous anticyclone can weaken the upper-tropospheric divergence pumping over the SSTP. In addition, moist static energy diagnosis indicates that the southern branch of the anomalous anticyclone advects low moist enthalpy air into the SSTP, which also suppresses local upward motion and convection. Moreover, the anticyclonic trend over the northeastern TP is found not a local phenomenon, but is rather associated with the large-scale atmospheric change in the middle latitudes that shows a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT)-like pattern. Our results highlight that the long-term CGT-like trend of atmospheric circulation plays a crucial role in triggering the drying tendency over the SSTP in recent decades.

Seasonal extreme rainfall over Indian monsoon region: a moisture budget analysis to distinguish the role of ENSO and non-ENSO forcing

Seasonal extreme rainfall over Indian monsoon region: a moisture budget analysis to distinguish the role of ENSO and non-ENSO forcing

Evaluating the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on a Variety of Diagnostics

Abstract Given the climatic importance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), this study evaluates the capability of CMIP6 models in simulating MJO eastward propagation in comparison with their CMIP5 counterparts. To understand the representation of MJO simulation in models, a set of diagnostics with respect to MJO-associated dynamic and thermodynamic structures is applied, including large-scale zonal circulation, vertical structures of diabatic heating and equivalent potential temperature, moisture convergence at the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and the east–west asymmetry of moisture tendency relative to the MJO convection. The simulated propagation of the MJO in CMIP6 models shows an overall improvement in realistic speed and longer distance, which displays a robust linear regression relationship against the above-mentioned dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The improved MJO propagation in CMIP6 largely benefits from better representation of premoistening processes that is primarily contributed by improved PBL moisture convergence. In addition, the convergence of moisture and meridional advection of moisture prior to the MJO convection are enhanced in CMIP6, while the zonal advection of moisture is as weak as that in CMIP5. The increased convergence of moisture is a result of enhanced lower-tropospheric moisture and divergence, and the enhanced meridional advection of moisture can be caused by sharpened meridional gradient of mean lower-tropospheric moisture in the western Pacific. Further examination of the lower-tropospheric moisture budget reveals that the enhanced zonal asymmetry of the moisture tendency in CMIP6 is driven by the drying process to the west of the MJO convection, which is attributed to the negative vertical and zonal advections of moisture.

Moisture transport enhanced by the nocturnal low-level jet in association with the passage of a monsoon depression over the Indian subcontinent

Characteristics of moisture transport associated with a monsoon depression (MD) formed over the Bay of Bengal and later moved westward over central India are presented. The investigation is carried out mainly using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) cloud-resolving model simulations and the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) to assess the path and features of the moisture transport. The model performance evaluation is carried out using micrometeorological and microwave radiometer observations from the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX). The results indicate that the strengthened LLJ during the nocturnal periods helps to enhance the moisture convergence in the lower troposphere and thus the rainfall, both before the formation of MD as well as during its passage over land. The moisture budget over a selected region along the path of the MD gave further insights on the moisture convergence, associated precipitation and related features during the study period. The analyses using IVT and LLJ strength are illustrated to be useful in identifying areas of intense convection.

Observational Study on Boundary Layer Moist Static Energy Budget over the Tropical Western Pacific and Its Variability Associated with Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract Moist static energy (MSE) in the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) is one of the essential parameters determining convective activity over tropical oceanic areas. It is thus important to quantitatively understand BL MSE budget processes and their variability. Among these processes, only few studies have evaluated contributions of entrainment across the BL top and convective downdraft. This study aims to estimate these contributions by analyzing upper-air and surface meteorological observations obtained using research vessel Mirai over the tropical western Pacific in June 2008. Daily mean downward mass fluxes due to the two processes are calculated using BL dry static energy and moisture budget equations under the BL quasi-equilibrium approximation. Estimated mass fluxes are consistent with convective activity observed by a shipborne weather radar and a ceilometer. This study further examines how the mass fluxes and budget processes are modulated when a convectively active phase of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation arrives at the observation area in the second half of the month. It is found that, while the contribution of the entrainment does not change significantly, the convective downdraft mass flux and the resultant BL MSE export increase 5 times and 3 times, respectively, in the convectively active period compared with those in the preactive period. Furthermore, ∼1/4 of the increase in the convective downdraft mass flux is attributable to the increase in MSE of convective downdraft air associated with midtropospheric moistening.

Anthropogenic warming disrupts intraseasonal monsoon stages and brings dry-get-wetter climate in future East Asia

East Asia will face a skewed monsoon cycle with soaring flood, drought, and weather whiplash risks in a warming climate. In our objective eight-intraseasonal-monsoon-stage framework, we uncover a ‘dry-get-wetter’ paradigm in East Asia, contesting the fallen ‘rich-get-richer’ common belief. On timing, the Mid-summer and Fall periods are stretching at the expense of three delayed, shortened, and weakened winter stages, especially near the end of the twenty-first century. On threats, entire East Asia will experience up to 14–20 more heavy precipitation days during the rainy Spring to Mid-summer stages. Specifically, the Yangtze basin will suffer from an earlier pluvial period with escalating flood risks. Moreover, societal security and ecosystem resilience in the Huai-Yellow basin, South Japan, and the Korean Peninsula will be challenged by more frequent weather whiplash. Under the monsoon-stage framework, a complete moisture budget decomposition sheds light on the causes of a slower precipitation scaling and the ‘dry-get-wetter’ paradigm.

Snowfall climatology in the Tianshan Mountains based on 36 cold seasons of WRF dynamical downscaling simulation

Snowfall is a critical component of the hydrological cycle and water resources supply in mountainous areas. The snowfall regime varies according to time and space, and its uncertainties exist under climate change conditions. It is a necessary process to monitor the moisture characteristics of snowfall so as to investigate the information on snowfall, but a separate study on the snow moisture characteristics did not sufficiently describe over the Tianshan Mountains (TS). This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of snowfall in the TS during the cold season from 1982 to 2018 based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and analyzed moisture characteristics of snowfall using the regional moisture budget analysis. The results demonstrated that the snowfall amounted to 84.53 mm in the TS during the cold season and experienced a slight increase (P > 0.05). A significant increase in snowfall was noticed in the Eastern TS and the high-altitude regions. Western Eurasia and the Arabian Sea were primary moisture sources of snowfall, and the abundant moisture was transported by the mid-latitude westerly and the southwesterly to the interior. The anomalous cyclone over Europe transported more moisture flux to Central Asia. Meanwhile, the anomalous cyclone of Mongolia and the anticyclone in southwestern Central Asia caused a declining moisture divergence in the TS and an increase of the net moisture budget, which resulted in a snowfall and snow mass augmentation. The obtained study outcomes might improve understanding of snowfall information and provide a scientific reference for water resource management under a warming climate.

Numerically consistent budgets of potential temperature, momentum, and moisture in Cartesian coordinates: application to the WRF model

Abstract. Numerically accurate budgeting of the forcing terms in the governing equations of a numerical weather prediction model is hard to achieve. Because individual budget terms are generally 2 to 3 orders of magnitude larger than the resulting tendency, exact closure of the budget can only be achieved if the contributing terms are calculated consistently with the model numerics. We present WRFlux, an open-source software that allows precise budget evaluation for the WRF model and, in comparison to existing similar tools, incorporates new capabilities. WRFlux transforms the budget equations from the terrain-following grid of the model to the Cartesian coordinate system, permitting a simplified interpretation of budgets obtained from simulations over non-uniform orography. WRFlux also decomposes the resolved advection into mean advective and resolved turbulence components, which is useful in the analysis of large-eddy simulation output. The theoretical framework of the numerically consistent coordinate transformation is also applicable to other models. We demonstrate the performance and a possible application of WRFlux with an idealized simulation of convective boundary layer growth over a mountain range. We illustrate the effect of inconsistent approximations by comparing the results of WRFlux with budget calculations using a lower-order advection operator and two alternative formulations of the coordinate transformation. With WRFlux, the sum of all forcing terms for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and momentum agrees with the respective model tendencies to high precision. In contrast, the approximations lead to large residuals: the root mean square error between the sum of the diagnosed forcing terms and the actual tendency is 1 to 3 orders of magnitude larger than with WRFlux.

Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring

AbstractIt has been known that the southwestern United States (US) has experienced a drying trend during spring as climate warms. Less is known about the projected increase of summer precipitation in the region and its physical mechanisms. By using climate model simulations and moisture budget analysis, we show that in contrast to the spring, the changes of moisture gradient and wind convergence both cause increasing precipitation during summer. The change of the moisture gradient is featured by larger increase of water vapor along the western coast than inland, thus causing enhanced moisture advection in the future climate. The change of the wind convergence is caused by the maximum jet weakening over the continental US near the latitudes of the region, which leads to enhanced moisture convergence.

Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections

It is of practical significance to use the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to study the impact of changes in land‒sea thermodynamic contrast (TC) on the Asian summer monsoon under different scenarios and to compare the similarities and differences of the impact mechanisms between different monsoon regions. In this study, we investigated future changes of the Asian summer monsoon under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios using 19 CMIP6 models. The intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is projected to decrease by 2.6%, 6.3%, 10.1%, and 11.1%, while the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity is projected to increase by 4.6%, 7.9%, 7.4%, and 9.8% until the end of the 21st century for SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, summer precipitation in Asia is projected to increase remarkably in 2015–2099 under all four scenarios. The inconsistent warming trends over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), Northwest Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean would greatly impact the monsoon circulations. The upper-troposphere warming trend over the surrounding oceans is remarkably greater than that over the TP, while the near-surface warming trend over the surrounding oceans is smaller than that over the TP. The decrease of upper-troposphere TC between the TP and tropical Indian Ocean results in a weakening of the SASM circulation. The enhancement of the lower-troposphere TC between the TP and Northwest Pacific would strengthen the EASM circulation. Moisture budget analysis shows that the water-vapor would increase in the future, which would thermodynamically enhance summer precipitation through the anomalous vertical moisture transport associated with mean flow. The strengthening of the meridional circulation of the EASM would increase monsoon precipitation, while the weakening of zonal circulation of the SASM would dynamically reduce South Asian summer precipitation.

Changes in MJO Characteristics and Impacts in the Past Century

Abstract The changes of the MJO behavior and its impact on global precipitation, precipitation extremes, and high-frequency variability during the past century (1901–2010) were investigated using the NOAA-20CR dataset. It was found that the MJO amplitude was significantly strengthened, while its eastward phase speed hardly changed. The impacts of the MJO on precipitation in South China (SC), northern Australia (AU), and California (CA) were investigated. The anomalous rainfall in the regions was strengthened from the early to late twentieth century, with the percentage increase ranging from 67% in AU to 14% in CA. A moisture budget analysis indicated that the enhanced precipitation was primarily attributed to the effect of anomalous wind while the effect of the mean moisture change was small. The impact of the local meridional wind anomaly was critical in SC, while in AU and CA the zonal wind component dominated. The precipitation extremes had a significant increase from the early to late twentieth century. The cumulative extreme precipitation amount increased by 140%–150% in SC and AU and by 100% in CA, and the number of the extreme days increased by 110% in SC and AU and 70% in CA. Such increases are consistent with the strengthening of the high-frequency (HF; with a period less than 10 days) variability across the globe. The pattern of percentage increase of the HF variability resembles the pattern of percentage increase of MJO-scale precipitation. This implies that the MJO teleconnection pattern could exert a large-scale control on the HF variability and weather extremes. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal oscillations, plays an important role in affecting global weather and climate. To understand to what extent the MJO and associated teleconnections change with global warming, this study adopts an alternative approach by analyzing a century-long reanalysis dataset rather than the outputs of climate models that consist of large uncertainties due to poor MJO simulations. We found that MJO-induced tropical and midlatitude precipitation and associated extremes and high-frequency variabilities were strengthened during the past century while the global mean surface temperature increases approximately by 1°C. The results derived from the present study provide a basis for assessing the future MJO behavior and associated climate impacts and for improving the extended-range prediction of severe weather and climate extremes.

General characteristics of climate change over China and associated dynamic mechanisms during the Last Interglacial based on PMIP4 simulations

Investigation of climate change during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~130–115 ka BP) may deepen our understanding of the response of climate to Earth's orbit. Here we examine climate change over China and associated mechanisms during the LIG using the lig127k experiments from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4. We illustrate that annual mean surface air temperature over China decreases by 0.22 °C during the LIG relative to the preindustrial, with a colder climate in winter and spring, whereas a warmer climate in summer and autumn. Annual mean precipitation increases (up to 54%) over northern and southwestern China during the LIG, whereas it decreases (up to 11%) over the other parts. This pattern largely holds for precipitation change in summer during the LIG, but precipitation generally decreases in winter. According to the moisture budget equation, the nonlinear and horizontal dynamic terms contribute largely to the drier (wetter) conditions in summer over the south (north) of eastern China, whereas the horizontal dynamic term and the horizontal thermodynamic term is more important in regulating drier conditions over south and north of eastern China in winter, respectively. Furthermore, East Asian summer monsoon is intensified during the LIG manifested by anomalous southerly at 850 hPa, a westward shift of western North Pacific subtropical high, and poleward migration of East Asian westerly jet. East Asian winter monsoon also gets stronger during the LIG, with anomalous northerly at low-level troposphere, enhanced mid-tropospheric East Asian trough, and an equatorward shift of westerly jet at upper troposphere. Additionally, we note obvious data-model discrepancies in annual temperature change over China during the LIG, with cooling seen in the models but warming suggested by multiproxies. This highlights close collaboration between model and data communities in future to deepen our understanding of climate change during the LIG.

Precursors and Formation Mechanisms of Event-Based Extreme Precipitation during Springtime in Central-Eastern China

AbstractThis study investigates the precursors and formation mechanisms of spring (April–May) event-based extreme precipitation (EEP) during 1961–2014 in central-eastern China. The EEP events during springtime are primarily characterized by extreme precipitation that occurs at the first half of an event. During early stages of spring EEP events, a Rossby wave grows over western Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean. The wave propagates eastward toward East Asia, exhibiting a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. A strong anticyclone related to the CGT pattern is formed over the islands of Japan in the upper troposphere, enhancing the divergence anomalies and bringing more water vapor anomalies from the Sea of Japan into central-eastern China. Meanwhile, the westerly jet jumps northward and anomalous southwesterly water vapor flux is significantly prevalent, both associated with the onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM). When the anomalous southwesterly and northeasterly moisture fluxes into central-eastern China combine, strong convergence is formed, providing abundant water vapor for extreme precipitation. The moisture budget analysis further suggests that the dynamic processes associated with horizontal wind anomalies play a crucial role in the moisture convergence for the spring EEP events. The advection of zonal and meridional moisture is strongly related to the anomalous winds of the CGT waves and BOBSM, respectively; the horizontal thermodynamic processes related to specific humidity and vertical advection contribute much less. The results indicate the preceding signals in the midlatitudes and subtropics for the spring EEP events, enabling extreme precipitation forecasting and hydrological prediction.

The Role of Large-Scale Moistening by Adiabatic Lifting in the Madden–Julian Oscillation Convective Onset

AbstractThe initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation over the Indian Ocean is examined through the use of a moisture budget that applies a version of the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation that does not neglect dry adiabatic vertical motions. Examination of this budget in ERA-Interim reveals that horizontal moisture advection and vertical advection by dry adiabatic lifting govern the moistening of the troposphere for both primary and successive MJO initiation events. For both types of initiation events, horizontal moisture advection peaks prior to the maximum moisture tendency, while dry adiabatic lifting peaks after the maximum moisture tendency. Once convection initiates, moisture is maintained by anomalous radiative and adiabatic lifting. The dry adiabatic lifting during successive MJO initiation is attributed to the return of the circumnavigating circulation from a previous MJO event, while in primary events the planetary-scale circulation appears to originate over South America. Examination of the same budget with data from the DYNAMO northern sounding array shows that adiabatic lifting contributes significantly to MJO maintenance, with a contribution that is comparable to that of surface heat fluxes. However, results from the DYNAMO data disagree with those from ERA-Interim over the importance of adiabatic lifting to the moistening of the troposphere prior to the onset of convection. In spite of these differences, the results from the two datasets show that small departures from WTG balance in the form of dry adiabatic motions cannot be neglected when considering MJO convective onset.

On the Use of Sap Flow Measurements to Assess the Water Requirements of Three Australian Native Tree Species

The measurement of sap movement in xylem sapwood tissue using heat pulse velocity sap flow instruments has been commonly used to estimate plant transpiration. In this study, sap flow sensors (SFM1) based on the heat ratio method (HRM) were used to assess the sap flow performance of three different tree species located in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Australia over a 12-month period. A soil moisture budget profile featuring potential evapotranspiration and precipitation was developed to indicate soil moisture balance while the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum was examined at the study site using data obtained from different monitoring instruments. The comparison of sap flow volume for the three species clearly showed that the water demand of Corymbia maculata was the highest when compared to Melaleuca styphelioides and Lophostemon confertus and the daily sap flow volume on the north side of the tree on average was 63% greater than that of the south side. By analysing the optimal temperature and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) for transpiration for all sampled trees, it was concluded that the Melaleuca styphelioides could better cope with hotter and drier weather conditions.