Moisture Budget Research Articles

Diversity of the Austral Summer Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation in the Southwestern Indian Ocean

Abstract The 10–20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is active in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) during austral summer. Compared with comprehensive analyses of the QBWO in the Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer, studies focusing on the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO are relatively scarce. In this study, the diversity of the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO is examined based on K-means cluster analysis, which objectively classifies two distinct modes: an eastward-propagating mode (EM) and a poleward-propagating mode (PM). For the EM (PM), an active convection center originates from the subtropical ocean (tropical ocean) and exhibits an eastward (poleward) propagation path. Moisture budget analysis reveals that positive moisture time tendency anomalies show a phase-leading relationship relative to both QBWO convection centers. This phase leading in moisture tendency anomalies is mainly due to horizontal moisture advection. Further analysis demonstrates that meridional moisture transport (i.e., the summer mean moisture advected by the meridional quasi-biweekly wind) is fundamentally responsible for moisture phase leading in both QBWO modes in their mature phases. The combined scale interaction among low frequency, quasi-biweekly, and high frequency contributes to the initial movement for both modes in the growing phases. Although the two modes in the SWIO are initiated in different regions and exhibit distinct evolutionary features, they are regulated by similar moisture dynamics: the northerlies (northeasterlies) of the cyclonic wind response bring higher mean moisture levels east (south) of the convective center, which leads to the eastward (southward) movement of the EM (PM). Significance Statement The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), which can affect extreme weather events, such as extreme precipitation and heat waves, is active in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) during austral summer. Compared with previous studies of the QBWO in the Asian monsoon regions during boreal summer, studies focusing on the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO are relatively scarce. Specifically, we objectively classify the austral summer QBWO in the SWIO into two distinct modes: an eastward-propagating mode (EM) and a poleward-propagating mode (PM). Through moisture tendency diagnosis, we find that the two QBWO modes are regulated by similar moisture dynamics, although they are initiated in different regions and exhibit distinct evolutionary features. This improved understanding may provide insights into the monitoring and prediction of the QBWO.

Assessing Arctic wetting: Performances of CMIP6 models and projections of precipitation changes

The Arctic region is experiencing a notable increase in precipitation, known as Arctic wetting, amidst the backdrop of Arctic warming. This phenomenon has implications for the Arctic hydrological cycle and numerous socio-ecological systems. However, the ability of climate models to accurately simulate changes in Arctic wetting has not been thoroughly assessed. In this study, we analyze total precipitation in the Arctic using station data, multiple reanalyses, and 35 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). By employing the moisture budget equation and an evaluation method for model performance with ERA5 reanalysis as a reference, we evaluated the models' capability to reproduce past Arctic wetting patterns. Our findings indicate that most reanalyses and models are able to replicate Arctic wetting. However, the CMIP6 models generally exhibit an overestimation of Arctic wetting during the warm season and an underestimation during the cold season from 1979 to 2014 when compared to the ERA5 reanalysis. Further investigation reveals that the overestimation of wetting during the warm season is largest over the Arctic Ocean's northern part, specifically the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and is associated with an overestimation of atmospheric moisture transport. Conversely, the models significantly underestimate wetting over the Barents-Kara Sea during the cold season, which can be attributed to an underestimation of evaporation resulting from the models' inadequate representation of sea ice reduction in that region. The models with the best performance in simulating historical Arctic wetting indicate a projected intensification of Arctic wetting, and optimal models significantly reduce uncertainties in future projections compared to the original models, particularly in the cold season and oceanic regions. Our study highlights significant biases in the CMIP6 models' simulation of Arctic precipitation, and improving the model's ability to simulate historical Arctic precipitation could reduce uncertainties in future projections.

Seasonally distinct contributions of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols to historical changes in Arctic moisture budget

Arctic hydrological cycle has important global implications through modifying deep ocean circulation via fresh water fluxes. However, attribution of the observed changes in Arctic moisture budget remains challenging due to the lack of reliable observations. Here, as a first step, past changes in hydrological cycle over the Arctic were evaluated using CMIP6 historical simulations. To examine possible influences of individual external forcings, CMIP6 multi-model simulations performed under natural-plus-anthropogenic (ALL), greenhouse gas (GHG), natural (NAT), and aerosol (AER) forcings were compared. Results indicate that Arctic precipitation and evaporation increase in ALL and GHG but decrease in AER. In ALL and GHG, Arctic precipitation increases in summer mainly due to enhanced poleward moisture transport whereas Arctic moistening during winter is affected more by increased surface evaporation over sea-ice retreat areas. In AER, Arctic precipitation tends to decrease due to reduced evaporation over sea-ice advance areas during cold months. Poleward meridional moisture flux (MMF) across 70°N is the strongest in summer due to the highest moisture. GHG has stronger MMF than other forcing simulations due to larger increase in moisture in line with stronger warming. The MMF response is found to be largely determined by variations in transient eddies with distinct seasonal and regional contributions.

Global terrestrial monsoon area variations since Last Glacial Maximum based on TraCE21ka and PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations

Global monsoon over land (GM_L) have significant variations in their dominated area (GMA_L). The quantitative assessment of changes in GMA_L is essential for understanding spatial environment impacts and the underlying driving mechanism of GM_L evolution. Simulation results of a suite of transient climate evolution simulation over the last 21,000 years (TraCE21ka) and five-model ensemble outputs of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project in their latest phase (fourth, PMIP4-CMIP6) are analyzed to study the changes in global, hemispheric and six sub-monsoon areas over the past 21 ka over land. Both datasets can reproduce large-scale characteristics of GMA_L variability, although there are differences in the magnitudes of their changes. Compared to 0 ka, TraCE21ka simulations reveal that GMA_L reduced by about 4.89 × 106 km2 (decreased by 10.89%) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21–18 ka), and reached a maximum of 46.61 × 106 km2 (increased by 3.83%) during the middle Holocene (MH, 9–6 ka). In comparison, the results of PMIP4-CMIP6 yield a smaller change of GMA_L during the LGM (decreased by 3.72%) and a larger magnitude of GMA_L during the MH (increased by 4.73%). The analysis of GMA_L over the past 21 ka reveals the varying influences of external forcing, with insolation playing a dominant role. Rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG) and ice sheet melting have induced a stepwise expansion in GMA_L during the last deglaciation, superimposed with several abrupt millennial-scale weakened monsoon events under meltwater fluxes (MWF) forcing. After that, insolation caused a gradually declining trend in GMA_L during the Holocene. The position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) under orbital forcing, leading to an anti-phase reaction between Northern Hemisphere monsoon areas (NHMA_L) and Southern Hemisphere monsoon areas (SHMA_L), particularly after 9 ka. Among the six sub-monsoons, they show diverse variations and regional characteristics under different forcings. Although regional monsoons like Indonesia-Australia monsoon (IAM) exhibit nonlinear behavior due to internal variabilities, the overall response of global monsoons to external forcing is predominantly linear. In addition, changes in the hydrological processes can indicate the formation and expansion of monsoon domains. Moisture budget shows that thermodynamic effect has always dominated monsoon hydrological cycles over the past 21 ka. The differences in regional monsoon hydrological processes arise from the dynamic effect. Moreover, δ18O records have been used to test these numerical simulation results. Which, together with diverse thermodynamic and dynamic component configurations of terrestrial paleo-monsoon variations, would help to better understand the underlying mechanism of global monsoon and its influences in the future.

Derivation and compilation of lower-atmospheric properties relating to temperature, wind, stability, moisture, and surface radiation budget over the central Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC

Abstract. Atmospheric measurements taken over the span of an entire year between October 2019 and September 2020 during the icebreaker-based Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition provide insight into processes acting in the Arctic atmosphere. Through the merging of disparate yet complementary in situ observations, we can derive information about these thermodynamic and kinematic processes with great detail. This paper describes methods used to create a lower-atmospheric properties dataset containing information on several key features relating to the central Arctic atmospheric boundary layer, including properties of temperature inversions, low-level jets, near-surface meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and the surface radiation budget. The lower-atmospheric properties dataset was developed using observations from radiosondes launched at least four times per day, a 10 m meteorological tower and radiation station deployed on the sea ice near the research vessel Polarstern, and a ceilometer located on the deck of the Polarstern. This lower-atmospheric properties dataset, which can be found at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.957760 (Jozef et al., 2023), contains metrics which fall into the overarching categories of temperature, wind, stability, clouds, and radiation at the time of each radiosonde launch. The purpose of the lower-atmospheric properties dataset is to provide a consistent description of general atmospheric boundary layer conditions throughout the MOSAiC year, which can aid in research applications with the overall goal of gaining a greater understanding of the atmospheric processes governing the central Arctic and how they may contribute to future climate change.

Divergent response of eastern China precipitation to the Pacific decadal oscillation during the last Interglacial

Understanding the role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼127 ka) may advance our knowledge on decadal climate variability in a warmer world. In this study, we investigate the PDO–precipitation relationship over eastern China during the LIG based on the NorESM2-LM, which shows the best performance in capturing the observed PDO pattern and the PDO–precipitation relationship among 12 models from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4. Composite analysis shows that summer precipitation during the LIG is generally increased over eastern China in the positive PDO phases relative to the negative phases, which is different from the “drier-wetter-drier” triple pattern in the present day. The discrepant precipitation patterns between the LIG and preindustrial are caused by different responses of composite atmospheric circulations. Moreover, moisture budget analysis indicates that variations of vertical velocity over eastern China largely explain the PDO-linked precipitation patterns during both LIG and preindustrial, although the main causes for vertical motion changes are different across regions and periods based on the quasi-geostrophic ω equation. Additionally, these discrepancies in composite atmospheric circulations are largely linked to differences in PDO patterns and mean climate states between the LIG and preindustrial. Our results suggest a varying relationship between the PDO and precipitation over eastern China in a warmer-than-present world induced by Earth's orbit, which have important implications for PDO reconstructions during the LIG via the PDO-precipitation relationship reported here and shed light on decadal variability of precipitation as well as the associated decadal predictions in a future warmer world.

Extreme characteristics and causes of the drought event in the whole Yangtze River Basin in the midsummer of 2022

Due to their huge socio-economic impacts and complex formation causes, extreme and continuous drought events have become the focus and nodus of research in recent years. In the midsummer (July–August) of 2022, a severe drought event occurred in the whole Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China. During that period, the precipitation in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the YRB dropped over 40% less than the 1961–2021 climatic mean, which had never happened previously. Furthermore, the temperature was the highest during 1961–2022. The record-breaking magnitude of less rainfall and high temperature directly led to the continuous development of this extreme drought event. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis revealed that the YRB midsummer rainfall anomaly was dominated by the anomalous powerful vertical moisture advection, which was derived from the strongest descending motion over the whole YRB in the 2022 midsummer during 1981–2022. The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during the midsummer remained stronger, more westward and lasted longer than the climatic mean. As a result, the whole YRB was controlled by a positive geopotential height centre. Further evidence revealed that the anomalous subtropical zonal flow played a crucial role in inducing the extreme descent over the YRB. Moreover, the anomalous upper-tropospheric easterly flow over the YRB in 2022 is the strongest during 1981–2022, modulating the generation of the unprecedented descent anomaly over the YRB. The likelihood that an integrated connection of severe drought in East Asia and flood in West Asia and northwestern South Asia would increase when the extremely strong easterly anomalies in the upper troposphere emerged and induced descending adiabatic flow on the eastern sides of the Tibetan Plateau. The results of this study can provide scientific insights into the predictability of extreme drought events and provide ways to improve predictions.

Characteristics of clustered heavy precipitation events at Northeast China and associated atmospheric circulations

AbstractHeavy precipitation events can exert greater impact than general precipitation on the economy, ecology, and people’s livelihoods. Based on CN05.1 daily precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR global daily reanalysis dataset, this study analyzes the characteristics of clustered heavy precipitation (CHP) events during summer in Northeast China (NEC) during 1961–2020, with consideration of associated atmospheric circulations and moisture transport. Results indicate that CHP events occurred mainly during midsummer, especially in July. Both the frequency and the intensity of CHP events decrease after the mid-1970s, increase after the early 1980s, and then diminish again after the 2000s. The CHP events occur in association with an anomalous lower-tropospheric cyclone centered over NEC, northward and westward shifts of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the middle troposphere, and northward shift of an intensified westerly jet in the upper troposphere, in conjunction with strengthened local convective motion. Additionally, the net moisture budget begins to increase 2 days before the occurrence of CHP and peaks 6 h earlier than the CHP. Further results indicate that net moisture influx across the southern boundary of NEC made a dominant contribution to the net moisture budget. The results of this study have importance regarding the prediction of CHP events over NEC.

Atmospheric Moisture Transport Associated with Precipitation in Present and Simulated Future Climates

Abstract Precipitation and the atmospheric moisture budget are analyzed for 40-yr periods of recent and future climate simulated by the 10 CMIP6 models from which the vertically integrated moisture flux data are available. This allows new assessments of this important atmospheric transport, which can typically only be approximated. Seasonal climatological fields are compared with those from the ERA5 reanalysis. Using the four-season average M skill score for the globe, precipitation from the 10 models is similar in skill to that from a further 25 models. The scores for six moisture variables, including flux and its convergence, demonstrate global skill for each model. The 10-model average fields have better skill than any individual model. Changes are calculated for 2040–79 under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. The focus is on the 10-model average scaled as a projection of change for a global warming of 2°C. The changes in precipitation, temperature, and pressure in each season are largely consistent with those from the larger ensemble. The changes in flux, convergence, water column, and winds at three levels are presented. The role of convergence in balancing precipitation changes over many land regions is evident. Flux, convergence, and precipitation are shown in detail for selected cases, including central North America, the South American monsoon, southern Africa in summer, southern South America in winter, Europe in summer, and both polar regions. Typically, flux is enhanced, but the associated convergence may shift. The production of the vertically integrated flux vector as a standard output from climate models is supported.

Enhanced summer extreme precipitation over the Asian-African land monsoon regions during past warm periods: A modelling perspective from CESM2

Investigation of summer extreme precipitation during past warm periods may deepen our understanding of its behavior in current and future warmer climates. In this study, we investigate the variation of summer (June-July-August) extreme precipitation and the associated dynamic mechanisms over the Asian and African land monsoon regions during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP) and the Last Interglacial (LIG), using six extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Model results indicate that summer extreme precipitation becomes more intense and frequent over the African land monsoon region during both the mPWP and LIG relative to the pre-industrial, together with longer wet spell and shorter dry spell, though the magnitudes are relatively larger during the LIG than the mPWP. Based on the moisture budget equation, the vertical thermodynamic term and the vertical dynamic term largely account for the increased summer precipitation over the African land monsoon region during the mPWP and LIG, respectively. Over the Asian land monsoon region, summer extreme precipitation is also generally intensified and occurs more frequently during the mPWP and LIG, but with large regional differences. The main contributing factors to precipitation change hence vary greatly with sub-regions and periods. Although the modeled variations of extreme precipitation remain hard to be constrained by geological evidence, our results highlight an intensification of extreme precipitation in a warmer world, though the dominating factors (i.e., thermodynamic vs. dynamic) for precipitation change may vary with the external forcing that induces the warmth.

Adverse impact of terrain steepness on thermally driven initiation of orographic convection

Abstract. Diurnal mountain winds precondition the environment for deep moist convection through horizontal and vertical transport of heat and moisture. They also play a key role in convection initiation, especially in strongly inhibited environments, by lifting air parcels above the level of free convection. Despite its relevance, the impact of these thermally driven circulations on convection initiation has yet to be examined systematically. Using idealized large-eddy simulations (Δx=50 m) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we study the effect of cross-valley circulations on convection initiation under synoptically undisturbed and convectively inhibited conditions, considering quasi-2D mountain ranges of different heights and widths. In particular, we contrast convection initiation over relatively steep mountains (20 % average slope) and less steep ones (10 %). One distinctive finding is that, under identical environmental conditions, relatively steep mountain ranges lead to a delayed onset and lower intensity of deep moist convection, although they cause stronger thermal updrafts at ridge tops. The temporal evolution of convective indices, such as convective inhibition and convective available potential energy, shows that destabilization over the steeper mountains is slower, presumably due to lower low-level moisture. Analysis of the ridgetop moisture budget reveals the competing effects of moisture advection by the mean thermally driven circulation and turbulent moisture transport. In general, at mountaintops, the divergence of the turbulent moisture flux offsets the convergence of the advective moisture flux almost entirely. Due to the stronger ridgetop updraft, the mean advective moistening over the steeper mountains is higher; nevertheless, the total moistening is lower and the width of the updraft zone is narrower on average. Thus, buoyant updrafts over the steeper mountains are more strongly affected by the turbulent entrainment of environmental air, which depletes their moisture and cloud water content and makes them less effective at initiating deep convection. Saturated updrafts over less steep mountains, on the other hand, gain more moisture from the vapor flux at cloud base, leading to significantly higher moisture accumulation. The lower entrainment rates in these simulations are revealed by the fact that equivalent potential temperature in the cloud decreases less strongly with height than over steeper terrain. The precipitation efficiency, a measure of how much of the condensed water eventually precipitates, is considerably larger over the less steep mountains, also due to lower total condensation compared with the steeper simulations. The relationship between mountain size and precipitation amount depends on the thermodynamic profile. It is nearly linear in cases with low initial convective inhibition but more complex otherwise. The weaker convection over steeper mountains is a robust finding, valid over a range of background environmental stability and mountain sizes.

Distinct Impacts of Two Types of Developing El Niño–Southern Oscillations on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remarkable impacts on Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation. However, recently identified ENSO spatial diversity brings complexity to these impacts. This study investigates the distinct impacts of the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) ENSOs on TP summer precipitation based on numerous precipitation data and satellite-observed and reanalyzed circulation data. The results show that the EP El Niño and the CP La Niña have opposite effects on summer precipitation in the southwestern TP, with significant decreases and increases, respectively, indicating a trans-type inversion. In contrast, the CP El Niño causes significant decreases in summer precipitation in the central-eastern TP. No significant anomaly occurs during the EP La Niña. Moisture budget and circulation analyses suggest that these distinct precipitation characteristics can be attributed to different atmospheric teleconnections, which provide varying vertical motion and moisture conditions. The EP El Niño triggers an atmospheric response similar to the Indian Summer Monsoon–East Asian Summer Monsoon teleconnection, and the CP La Niña generates a teleconnection in the opposite phase. In contrast, the CP El Niño mainly causes a teleconnection resembling the East Asian–Pacific pattern. This study may deepen our understanding of ENSO impacts on TP summer precipitation and have implications for regional climate predictions.

Impact of centennial-scale solar activity reduction on the weakened Asian monsoon event at 9.2 ka BP

The weakened Asian monsoon event at 9.2 ka has been documented in many proxy-based reconstructions, but its underlying causes are uncertain. In this study, we investigated this event from a regional monsoon perspective by analysing simulations of Holocene transient solar activity forcing using the Community Earth System Model and high-resolution proxies. Our results revealed two separate periods of decreasing precipitation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South Asian (SA) monsoons from 9.5 to 9.2 ka, each lagging behind two remarkable weakening events (0.38 and 0.21 W m−2) in solar forcing. However, there was no significant change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation at 9.2 ka based on our experiment. Moisture budget analysis indicated that the dynamic effects term (i.e., anomalous descending motion) figured prominently in decreasing WNP and SA monsoon precipitation. Such a change was affected by an anomalous WNP anticyclone, which was maintained by the ‘wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature’ feedback during the decay phase of the centennial-scale El Niño-like event. The development of centennial El Niño-like conditions was caused by a reduction in solar irradiance. Reduced solar irradiance induced cooling over northern Australia, generating anomalous zonal sea level pressure gradients and westerlies over the tropical Pacific, ultimately resulting in the development of an El Niño-like pattern.

Assessment of uncertainties in reanalysis datasets in reproducing thermodynamic mechanisms in the moisture budget’s provision in the Congo Basin

Assessment of uncertainties in reanalysis datasets in reproducing thermodynamic mechanisms in the moisture budget’s provision in the Congo Basin

Cross‐Equatorial Surges Boost MJO's Southward Detour Over the Maritime Continent

AbstractThe influence of the cross‐equatorial northerly surge (CES) on the eastward propagation of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is evaluated through the analysis of the column integrated moisture budget. Results show that the CES reinforces MJO's southward detour by increasing horizontal moisture convergence over the southern Maritime Continent (MC) region. Further analysis reveals that the zonal convergence by intraseasonal zonal wind anomalies acting upon background moisture is intensified in the presence of CES events, causing a stronger convective activity in the southern MC (SMC). The stronger moisture convergence in the SMC is associated with the CES‐induced intensification of low‐level northwesterly and westerly winds, which, in turn, strengthen zonal wind convergences and positive wind‐evaporation feedbacks onto the MJO convection. An improved process understanding of the link between the CES and MJO detours can help engender improvements in extreme weather forecasts and aid investigation biases in simulating MJO in climate models.

Regional difference in precipitation seasonality over China from CMIP6 projections

AbstractBased on historical simulations and projections under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) provided by 32 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we investigate the future precipitation seasonality changes over China by two indices, the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI) and the relative seasonality index (SI), and the associated physical mechanisms by moisture budget diagnosis. The results show that relative to the baseline period 1995–2014, the DSI is enhanced across almost all of China at the end of the 21st century, with stronger magnitudes in southeastern China and the southern Tibetan Plateau and weaker magnitudes in northwestern China, and national‐mean enhancements are 15% (7%–21%) and 23% (15%–29%) for the multimodel median (25th–75th percentile range across models) under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Projected SI changes show large regional differences, with decreases in northern China and increase in southern China, leading to little change for the national mean. The DSI and SI changes are associated with uneven distributions of changes in absolute amounts and relative proportions of precipitation among seasons, respectively. Further analysis reveals that the contributions of different moisture budget terms to precipitation changes vary across seasons, resulting in changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation and thus the DSI and SI changes. Specifically, the thermodynamic component of vertical moisture advection primarily determines the greater magnitude of increased precipitation in summer than in winter in most of China, resulting in the DSI change. The reduction in residual term dominates the diminished winter precipitation in southern China, leading to more precipitation concentrated in summer for given annual precipitation and thus the intensification in SI, while the opposite holds true in northern China.

Warm Season Extreme Flood Events in the Midwestern US—Sources of Moisture and Physical Mechanisms

AbstractA comprehensive picture of the development of warm season extreme floods in the Midwestern US is presented. We first identify the climatological moisture sources for precipitation in the Midwest using the two‐layer dynamic recycling model (2L‐DRM) with ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data. Terrestrial sources supply most of the moisture for Midwestern US precipitation during the warm season, while oceanic sources dominate during the cold season. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used to select extreme flood events characterized by both positive soil moisture and precipitation anomalies. During the warm season flood events, moisture coming from oceanic sources increases by more than 45% compared to the climatology. In addition, our results show that moisture can come from remote regions due to sustained anomalous circulation. Low‐level circulation anomalies associated with wave trains that traverse the continent enhance moisture contributions from terrestrial sources along narrow paths. However, moisture budget analysis reveals that the primary flood‐producing mechanism is the convergence of moisture due to intense circulation anomalies. Moisture advection and thermodynamic terms are responsible for flood termination. Our results suggest that knowledge of antecedent wet soil moisture conditions is unlikely to improve the predictability of flood‐producing storms.

The role of external and local atmospheric moisture fluxes in the interannual variability of peak summer precipitation over the northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon

On the northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon (NFEASM), both external atmospheric moisture transport and local evaporation are important moisture sources of moisture that feed peak summer precipitation, but their relative importance in regulating the precipitation variability remains unclear. This study uses the atmospheric water budget analysis to investigate the contributions of external and local atmospheric moisture fluxes to the interannual variability of peak summer (July and August) precipitation over the NFEASM between 1980 and 2015. The results show that, compared with the net atmospheric moisture flux (i.e., moisture flux convergence, MFC), although climatologically evaporation is of the same magnitude as precipitation, its standard deviation is much smaller than that of precipitation and MFC. With respect to moisture conservation, the atmospheric moisture budget indicates that the interannual variability in summer precipitation is derived primarily from changes in MFC. Moreover, the closer correlation between MFC and precipitation than between MFC and evaporation also implies that the variability of summer precipitation over the NFEASM is controlled mainly by fluctuations in the external atmospheric moisture fluxes, particularly by the moisture transport from the southwest, which is closely linked to the anticyclonic anomalous circulation over eastern China. In addition, although the westerly does not bring substantial moisture, its meridional movement can change the upper-level zonal wind divergence pattern, thereby affecting peak summer precipitation over the NFEASM.

A Methodology for Estimating the Energy and Moisture Budget of the Convective Boundary Layer Using Continuous Ground-Based Infrared Spectrometer Observations

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in both the atmospheric water and energy cycles. Changes in soil moisture and vegetation alter the partitioning of surface water and energy fluxes, influencing diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The mixing-diagram framework has proven useful in understanding the evolution of the heat and moisture budget within the convective boundary layer (CBL). We demonstrate that observations from the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site provide all of the needed inputs needed for the mixing-diagram framework, allowing us to quantify the impact from the surface fluxes, advection, radiative heating, encroachment, and entrainment on the evolution of the CBL. Profiles of temperature and humidity retrieved from the ground-based infrared spectrometer [Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI)] are a critical component in this analysis. Large-eddy simulation results demonstrate that mean mixed-layer values derived are shown to be critical to close the energy and moisture budgets. A novel approach demonstrated here is the use of network of AERIs and Doppler lidars to quantify the advective fluxes of heat and moisture. The framework enables the estimation of the entrainment fluxes as a residual, providing a way to observe the entrainment fluxes without using multiple lidar systems. The high temporal resolution of the AERI observations enables the morning, midday, and afternoon evolution of the CBL to be quantified. This work provides a new way to use observations in this framework to evaluate weather and climate models. Significance Statement The energy and moisture budget of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is influenced by multiple sources, and accurately representing this evolution in numerical models is critical for weather forecasts and climate predictions. The mixing-diagram approach, driven by profiling observations as illustrated here, provides a powerful way to quantify the contributions from each of these sources. In particular, the energy and moisture mixed into the PBL from above the PBL can be determined accurately from ground-based remote sensors using this approach.

Seasonal Flooding Impact on Land Surface Temperature(LST) in Response to Vegetation Index Using Spectral Radiance Model in Kirkuk, Iraq

Change detection of land use is essential in management and planning decisions. Land Surface Temperature (LST) has a significant importance in many geoscience aspects, such as heat transportation between land and atmosphere, state of corps, heat flux, greenhouse effect both locally and regionally, surface moisture and surface energy budget estimation, the monitoring of urban heat island, evapotranspiration and environmental biogeochemistry process simulation. A geographic information system was efficiently utilized to observe the changes in land use different categories and to map annual and seasonal LST variations. In this study, Land sat 5 and 8 images for the years 2010, 2017 and 2019 were used to study the flooding imact on the LST. The Mono-Window algorithm and sepectral rediance model on Landsat-5 TM and OLI were used to estimate LST. Taking 2010 as a reference, an empirical study shows that the No-vegetation category percentage was 9.28 % and 11.03% in the 2017 and 2019 summer seasons, respectively, while it was -1.48% and -0.46% in winter. Vegetation change was -60.9% and -50.04% in the 2017 and 2019 summer seasons, respectively, while it was 28.28% and -6.11% in winter. Water area change was -65.8% and 84.1% in the 2017 and 2019 summer seasons, respectively, while it was -38.5% and 59.89% in winter. The results indicate that the water area had greatly decreased during 2017 which led to increase the LST and the floods in 2019 led to decrease the LST by 5-8 degrees. The temperature trend analysis reveals a definite negative association between LST and flooded area, representing this study’s significant finding.