Evaluating the Eastward Propagation of the MJO in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on a Variety of Diagnostics

Abstract

Abstract Given the climatic importance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), this study evaluates the capability of CMIP6 models in simulating MJO eastward propagation in comparison with their CMIP5 counterparts. To understand the representation of MJO simulation in models, a set of diagnostics with respect to MJO-associated dynamic and thermodynamic structures is applied, including large-scale zonal circulation, vertical structures of diabatic heating and equivalent potential temperature, moisture convergence at the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and the east–west asymmetry of moisture tendency relative to the MJO convection. The simulated propagation of the MJO in CMIP6 models shows an overall improvement in realistic speed and longer distance, which displays a robust linear regression relationship against the above-mentioned dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The improved MJO propagation in CMIP6 largely benefits from better representation of premoistening processes that is primarily contributed by improved PBL moisture convergence. In addition, the convergence of moisture and meridional advection of moisture prior to the MJO convection are enhanced in CMIP6, while the zonal advection of moisture is as weak as that in CMIP5. The increased convergence of moisture is a result of enhanced lower-tropospheric moisture and divergence, and the enhanced meridional advection of moisture can be caused by sharpened meridional gradient of mean lower-tropospheric moisture in the western Pacific. Further examination of the lower-tropospheric moisture budget reveals that the enhanced zonal asymmetry of the moisture tendency in CMIP6 is driven by the drying process to the west of the MJO convection, which is attributed to the negative vertical and zonal advections of moisture.