Modern Climate Research Articles

Assessment of the Modern Climate Policy of the European Union

Assessment of the Modern Climate Policy of the European Union

Nexus between Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Adaptation to Climate Change Strategies by Farmers in Kajiado County, Kenya

Indigenous knowledge (IK) has played an important role in adaptation to climate change in traditional agricultural communities. These approaches have been shown to be more effective when integrated with scientifically developed strategies. In this study, a perception survey questionnaire was used to find out whether there is a nexus between IK systems and the uptake of modern Climate Change Adaptation Strategies (CCAS) among farmers in Kajiado County, Kenya. A mixed research approach that involved the use of household questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews, focus group discussions (FGD), and observations was used to obtain data. The two theories, namely the Situated Learning Theory (SLT) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), formed the basis for illustrating the relationship between variables, while the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) was the key theoretical model employed. A total of 382 small-scale rural household representatives randomly selected from 3 Kajiado sub-counties were the principal respondents. The key informants included officers in the departments of agriculture, environment, meteorology, trade, and industry, as well as local administration and village elders. Statistical tools such as chi-square, correlation, and binary logistic regression analysis were used to determine associations. Thematic analysis of data collected from key informants and focus group discussions (FGD) was conducted to triangulate the survey results. Farmers' awareness of climate change, risk perceptions of impacts, existing locally developed approaches to climate change adaptation, and perceptions of CCAS were the main areas of investigation. The majority of farmers (85%) indicated that prolonged drought was the main extreme event that affected their farming activities. Of the indicators observed, drought (X2 = 13.861, p =.000) was perceived as the greatest risk associated with climate change to their agricultural productivity. Their IK adaptation strategies resulted from their interactions with the effects of drought on their livelihoods over the years. Farmers who were nomadic (IK practitioners) were not willing to apply for CCAS. For example, they were 72% less likely to increase their irrigated cropped area and 79% less likely to increase the number of better livestock breeds. Among the CCAS approaches, water resource management was the only preferred strategy. This particular finding shows that climate change policies can be easily adopted by indigenous farming communities if they are developed around an issue that matches their socio-ecological priorities. Without taking into account the prevailing social, cultural, and geo-environmental context of specific communities, the adoption of CCAS by farmers would be significantly affected. The study recommends that integrating indigenous agricultural knowledge into climate change adaptation policies enhances community resilience. Aligning adaptation strategies with local responses enriches farmer knowledge and boosts resilience against climate change impacts. Effective climate change adaptation plans should incorporate local weather prediction, environmental conservation, and proven community-based strategies, especially in water resource management for arid and semi-arid pastoralist communities.

International convergence towards a climate-neutral economy: modeling the agricultural sector

Purpose. This article aims to construct a comprehensive convergent model for assessing the global and EU’s progress, degree of consolidation and symmetry of agricultural economies towards climate neutrality in the context of key international green initiatives. Methodology / approach. This research employs both qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess convergence measures in the agricultural sector’s carbon emissions. The quantitative component relies on the sigma and beta convergence models to evaluate international convergence in carbon emissions CO2 dynamics. The dimensions of modeling are as follows: global sample within 194 countries with reliable emissions data; European Union, focusing on convergence within the EU27 member states, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine. The time period covers open data from 1972–2022. The dynamics of sigma and beta convergence is determined for the points, namely UN Stockholm Conference (1972), UN Rio Conference (1992), Kyoto Protocol (entry into force in 2005), Paris Agreement (2015). Additionally, statistical indicators of variation, skewness, Gini and Theil indices were calculated for delineating global smoothness and the concentration of agricultural emissions. Results. The results of the study reveal an inertial and divergent trend of the agricultural economy towards decarbonisation, which slows down the overall movement towards “net zero” due to the presence of clubs of lagging agricultural countries that increase emissions in violation of international agreements. The reduction in emissions skewness in recent years shows that more countries are “pulling” decarbonisation due to their high capacity to move towards net zero, but this is not enough. The EU is the most prominent example of accelerated climate convergence, but markers of its weakening in recent years are identified due to the inability of economies to maintain the pace of decarbonisation caused by economic constraints, technological barriers, policy and regulatory issues, and misunderstandings of climate neutrality goals. It is shown that the long-term decarbonisation capacity of the agricultural sector is the key trigger for a country to make a positive contribution to the global convergence towards climate neutrality. At the current stage, the pace of decarbonisation plays a much greater role for consolidating efforts in the agricultural economy and achieving climate neutrality than the initial level of emissions in the sector. Factors in this process include proactive compliance with global climate agreements, technology sharing and cooperation, digitalisation and smart agriculture, and green financing and investment. Its implementation requires a three-way integration of stakeholder actions, strategy selection and results evaluation. Originality / scientific novelty. The study’s originality lies in its large-scale analysis of over 50 years of emissions dynamics and the context of five key green agreements that provided support for the green transition. It allows studying international convergence in agricultural sectors globally and within the EU. The novelty implies the integrated use of sigma and beta convergence models that identifies predictors of convergent and divergent processes and separates countries into leaders and laggards of agricultural decarbonisation. This approach provides a comprehensive view of modern climate policy, the impact of international green initiatives, and the position of individual towards climate neutrality in agriculture. Practical value / implications. The practical value lies in the ability to adjust climate policies for the agricultural economy’s decarbonisation, facilitating the determination of prospective outcomes for achieving climate neutrality. The aforementioned factors facilitate the process of governmental decision-making. The assessment of international programmatic agreements' effectiveness is enhanced through these models. The study offers a framework for global convergence towards climate neutrality in agriculture, highlighting the importance of digital technologies and smart agriculture as significant factors in global convergence.

Reparameterization of GFN1-xTB for atmospheric molecular clusters: applications to multi-acid-multi-base systems.

Atmospheric molecular clusters, the onset of secondary aerosol formation, are a major part of the current uncertainty in modern climate models. Quantum chemical (QC) methods are usually employed in a funneling approach to identify the lowest free energy cluster structures. However, the funneling approach highly depends on the accuracy of low-cost methods to ensure that important low-lying minima are not missed. Here we present a reparameterized GFN1-xTB model based on the clusteromics I-V datasets for studying atmospheric molecular clusters (AMC), denoted AMC-xTB. The AMC-xTB model reduces the mean of electronic binding energy errors from 7-11.8 kcal mol-1 to roughly 0 kcal mol-1 and the root mean square deviation from 7.6-12.3 kcal mol-1 to 0.81-1.45 kcal mol-1. In addition, the minimum structures obtained with AMC-xTB are closer to the ωB97X-D/6-31++G(d,p) level of theory compared to GFN1-xTB. We employ the new parameterization in two new configurational sampling workflows that include an additional meta-dynamics sampling step using CREST with the AMC-xTB model. The first workflow, denoted the "independent workflow", is a commonly used funneling approach with an additional CREST step, and the second, the "improvement workflow", is where the best configuration currently known in the literature is improved with a CREST + AMC-xTB step. Testing the new workflow we find configurations lower in free energy for all the literature clusters with the largest improvement being up to 21 kcal mol-1. Lastly, by employing the improvement workflow we massively screened 288 new multi-acid-multi-base clusters containing up to 8 different species. For these new multi-acid-multi-base cluster systems we observe that the improvement workflow finds configurations lower in free energy for 245 out of 288 (85.1%) cluster structures. Most of the improvements are within 2 kcal mol-1, but we see improvements up to 8.3 kcal mol-1. Hence, we can recommend this new workflow based on the AMC-xTB model for future studies on atmospheric molecular clusters.

Holocene hydroclimate variability of the Baltic region inferred from stable isotopes, d-excess and multi-proxy data at lake Nuudsaku, Estonia (NE Europe)

Long-term hydroclimate records provide an opportunity to understand potential drivers of the past, and give context to modern and future climate warming. A wide variety of proxy data now allow for reconstruction of climate variables that were not previously possible. Here we present a multi-proxy dataset including n-alkane δ2H (δ2Hn-alk) values from an open-basin lake in Estonia to reconstruct past hydroclimate conditions for the eastern Baltic region. We complement our sedimentary δ2Hn-alk data with existing carbonate-based oxygen stable isotope (δ18O) data to derive deuterium (d-) excess. We present multiple isotopic records and reconstructed relative humidity (ΔRH) values over the Holocene, and link these with modern precipitation δ2H and δ18O values to guide the interpretation of the paleo-proxies. Fossil pollen and chironomid-based temperature reconstructions, as well as biogeochemical data provide additional information for inferring past environmental changes. Our results indicate that the middle Holocene in Estonia had on average 6 ± 3% higher RH values than the late Holocene. The δ18O and δ2H values were also higher during the middle Holocene, which we interpret as increased warm season precipitation. Our reconstructed d-excess values were relatively higher during the middle Holocene, indicating a more northerly or cold source water origin, in comparison to the late Holocene. In addition to the paleoclimatic significance, our results show how multiple quantitative proxies can be combined to characterize hydroclimate sensitivity to changes in relative humidity, temperature and moisture source.

Bushfire season in Australian Indigenous seasonal calendars and associated drought trends

ABSTRACT Climate-induced changes in rainfall and temperature across Australia exacerbate drought and bushfire risk which have detrimental impacts on flora, fauna, and water quality. Indigenous Peoples across Australia have recorded climate, environment, and biotic patterns in seasonal calendars, of which five are used to delineate approximate time windows associated with bushfire to demonstrate the necessity of weaving non-colonial and colonial knowledge for better understanding modern climate challenges. The bushfire season (October–March) was examined for variability and trends in the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) historical data from 1950 to 2021. SPEI is an integrative measure of local land-atmospheric conditions and affords physics-based monitoring of drought conditions across large spatial scales, using temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration to evaluate moisture content in a region. We found that drought indices showed moderate correlations with climate variables (SOI and sea surface temperatures). Taken together, this study illustrates overlapping scales of Indigenous and western knowledges in the context of bushfire risk and has the potential to enhance and inform climate adaptation efforts.

АНАЛИЗ СРЕДНЕСУТОЧНЫХ ЗНАЧЕНИЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ И ОСАДКОВ ПО ТЕРРИТОРИИ БЕЛАРУСИ С ПОМОЩЬЮ МЕТОДА КВАНТИЛЬНОЙ РЕГРЕССИИ

Average daily air temperature and daily total precipitation were analyzed using quantile regression. Quantiles corresponding to the selected extremes, i.e., below 0.1 (only for the analysis of air temperature) and above 0.9 were considered. It has been shown for the majority of cases that the spatial distribution of air temperature quantiles is close to the mean for winter and summer seasons. Specific features of temporal changes in the quantiles of air temperature and total precipitation are in line with the modern climate warming. A statistically significant relationship between air temperature and Earth surface characteristics is observed only for quantiles of 0.9 and more. Due to the complexity of the factors responsible for the formation of high-intensity precipitation, there is no clear pattern in the spatial distribution of the quantiles of daily total precipitation. There is statistically significant relationship between daily total precipitation, orography, and forest cover fraction on the territory.

The Public Trust as an International Solution to Climate Inaction

AbstractThe public trust doctrine holds promise as a tool for combatting international climate inaction. A global public trust in the Earth’s atmosphere may be a feasible avenue for generating international cooperation in this issue. The public trust doctrine is a viable and underutilized mechanism of understanding our collaborative obligations with respect to natural resources. This Article looks to the historical origins and current presentations of public trusts to extract features which indicate its effectiveness and appeal for modern climate change applications. Additionally, it presents two circumstances under which a global public trust in the atmosphere could eventually develop.

CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS OF AN ALTERNATIVE PHYSICAL MODEL OF MODERN CLIMATE

CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS OF AN ALTERNATIVE PHYSICAL MODEL OF MODERN CLIMATE

Energetics and Transfer of Submesoscale Brine Driven Eddies at a Sea Ice Edge

Abstract During polar winter, refreezing of exposed ocean areas results in the rejection of brine, i.e., salt-enriched plumes of water, a source of available potential energy that can drive ocean instabilities. As this process is highly localized, and driven by sea ice physics, not gradients in oceanic or atmospheric buoyancy, it is not currently captured in modern climate models. This study aims to understand the energetics and lateral transfer of density at a semi-infinite, instantaneously-opened and continuously re-freezing sea ice edge through a series of high resolution model experiments. We show that kilometer-scale submesoscale eddies grow from baroclinic instabilities via an inverse energy cascade. These eddies meander along the ice edge and propagate laterally. The lateral transfer of buoyancy by eddies is not explained by existing theories. We isolate the fundamental forcing-independent quantities driving lateral mixing, and discuss the implications for the overall strength of submesoscale activity in the Arctic Ocean.

Socioeconomic determinants of modern climate change adaptation of small-scale vegetable farmers in Bohlabela District, Mpumalanga Province

Climate change significantly impacts small-scale agriculture, with limited adaptation capabilities due to lack of access to advanced science and technology. Traditional methods are ideal, but modern adaptations require significant financial investment, affecting the smallholder under-resourced agricultural sector's economic activities. The study analyzed climate change adaptation drivers among small-scale vegetable farmers, using a representative sample of 244 farmers from four villages through face-to-face interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. Using the Logistic regression model, the results showed resources (extension services), institutional (association membership) and societal influence (farm produce theft, and animal trespassing in the farming plots) to be associated with the use of modern climate change adaptation measures in the study area. The study recommends expanding extension services, strengthening community policing, creating community grazing guidelines, and training farmers on climate change causes, social cohesion, and mitigation strategies to address farm produce theft and animal trespassing. The study contributes new knowledge to the discourse of climate change adaptation by providing empirical evidence pointing out the need to consider critical non-climate factors for farmers when making climate change adaptations interventions in the smallholder farming sector.

Iceberg danger in the seas of the Russian Federation Arctic Zone under modern climate change conditions

The aim of the research was to study the relationship between the intensity of iceberg formation in the Russian Arctic including the number of icebergs calving annually from outlet glaciers and surface air temperature anomalies. The research was carried out on the basis of satellite monitoring using non-commercial, freely distributed satellite information from optical-electronic satellites Landsat-8 (spatial resolution 15 m) and Sentinel-2 (spatial resolution 10 m) and the radar satellite Sentinel-1 (pixel size 20×40 m). To achieve the aim, an iceberg detection technique was used based on statistical criteria for searching for gradient zones in the analysis of two-dimensional fields of satellite images. Based on the analysis of satellite data of the visible spectral range of the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellites and Sentinel-1 radar data the maximum spatial dimensions of icebergs formed by the outlet glaciers of Severnaya Zemlya, Franz Josef Land (ZFI) and Novaya Zemlya in 2012–2022 were estimated. Satellite monitoring of the Severnaya Zemlya region was carried out using visible range images in the spring season (March–May), characterized by the best observation conditions in terms of cloudiness, natural light, and monitoring of icebergs most of which are located in fast ice at this time. Monitoring of the ZFI area was carried out using radar data in the period August-September, corresponding to the minimal ice cover conditions. Satellite monitoring of the Novaya Zemlya region was carried out using visible images in the summer season. In total, about 500 satellite images were analyzed. The discusses the dependence of the intensity of the iceberg formation process on the ice shelf and outlet glaciers with a floating edge on the surface air temperature and the maximum thickness of fast ice. It is shown that the abnormally warm weather that set in 2020 during the period of ice melting led to a sharp intensification of the process of glacier melting in the Russian Arctic and the formation of almost 8,000 icebergs near Severnaya Zemlya, more than 6,600 icebergs near ZFI and over 1,000 icebergs near the western coast of Novaya Zemlya. For all the areas of the Russian Arctic studied in the period 2012–2022 an increase was noted in the maximum observed sizes of icebergs calving from glaciers. The largest iceberg, whose length was 5 km, broke off in 2020 from the Matusevich ice shelf.

АГРОБИОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ И ЭНОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫХ КЛОНОВ СОРТА САПЕРАВИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЧЕРНОМОРСКОЙ АГРОЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ЗОНЫ ВИНОГРАДАРСТВА

Clone breeding is one of the promising directions for obtaining productive, high-quality, adaptable to local conditions grape genotypes. The Saperavi variety is a classic for the winemaking of the Caucasus, therefore, its preservation for further production in the conditions of modern climate change is an urgent task. The present study is aimed at identifying clones of the Saperavi variety with improved yield and wine quality indicators that preserve productivity and adaptability to local conditions. The place of research is subzone № 1 of the Black Sea agroecological zone of viticulture, moderate continental climate, soils are southern chernozems. 2023 was much warmer compared to the climatic averages. 10 bushes (C1-C10) were isolated without visual signs of viral, bacterial and phytoplasmic infections, which, according to the results of DNA analysis, have a Saperavi DNA profile from the international VIVC database. According to the data of resistance to winter conditions, variants C2, C4, C6, C8 and C10 were distinguished, according to agrobiological records – C1, C7, C8 and C9, according to the average weight of the bunch – C1, C3, C5, C6 and C8; according to the yield per bush – C10, according to the productivity of the shoot – C2, C3 and C10. The qualitative indicators of the yield (the mass concentration of sugars and titrated acids in berry juice) were high in all variants. According to the volume fraction of ethyl alcohol, the mass concentration of titrated acids, volatile acids and the reduced extract of wine materials, all samples showed values corresponding to GOST. According to the mass concentration of sugars in dry wine in bulk, variants C1, C2, C6 and C10 were distinguished, according to the sum of phenolic substances – C2, C8 and C10, according to the sum of coloring substances – C2, C3 and C8. According to the tasting assessment, variants C3 and C6 were noted. Variants C2, C6 and C10 were determined based on a set of characteristics (resistance to winter conditions, moderate productivity and high quality of yield and wine products). Key words: GRAPES, CLONE BREEDING, PROTOCLONS, VITICULTURE, ZONING VITICULTURE

Evaluating the asymmetric effect of patents driven environmental technologies on environmental degradation in the E7 countries: An extended model of STIRPAT

AbstractThis research employed an extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) modelling providing original empirical evidence on how technological innovation with the presence of green finance, energy transition vectoring renewable and non‐renewable energy, population, affluence, and financial development affect environmental sustainability measured on the carbon emissions and ecological consequences in E7 during the 1996–2019 period. The study applied mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic fixed effects (DFE) after conducting various preliminary tests. The findings predominantly revealed that renewable energy, green finance, and the patent in environmental technologies play an important role in mitigating environmental degradation. However, non‐renewable energy, financial development, population growth, and affluence escalate environmental degradation in the emerging countries under investigation. The outcome of this research proved conclusively that it is vital to introduce the patent on environmental technologies to encourage the collaboration on technology development related to global climate change. Furthermore, enhancing international collaboration in research and technology will positively affect local businesses through utilizing the modern climate change mitigation.

BIMBINGAN BELAJAR MENGGUNAKAN METODE PEMBELAJARAN AKSI (AKTIF, KREATIF, SANTAI DAN INOVATIF) DI DESA NAGACIPTA

This community benefit program points to supply consider direction to understudies at MI Al-Islamiyah 02 Naga Cipta Town, Serang Baru Area, Bekasi Rule. The objects of this movement were course VI understudies at MI Al-ISLAMIYAH 02 Nagabuat Town and the action was carried out for 3 days. The strategy utilized in this mentoring is the Activity strategy (Dynamic, Inventive, Loose and Imaginative). The presence of this direction program can offer assistance understudies within the learning process, such as giving help and guidance within the learning handle which points to extend students' eagerness and intrigued in learning. The comes about of this AKSI strategy can encourage participation and collaboration between people which can create way better and more inventive arrangements and can increment students' positive states of mind which can make a comfortable and agreeable learning climate. The learning handle as of now carried out by instructors tends to be overwhelmed by the educator, in this manner, utilizing the Activity strategy, a modern learning climate can be made.

The Pacific-North American teleconnection in the Cenozoic

The Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) is one of the most important atmospheric modes in the Northern Hemisphere in modern climate. Through the PNA teleconnection, climate variations in the tropical Pacific have significant impacts on North America. However, whether there existed the PNA-like mode in the deep-time climate and how it evolved remain unknown. Here, we study the evolution of the PNA in the past 70 million years, using simulation results with the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 (CESM1.2.2). Our simulation results show that there existed a PNA-like mode (referred to as PNA in this study) in the Cenozoic, but with different strengths and pathways. The strengths of the PNA were weaker over 70–40 million years ago (Ma) than that of the present, while it is comparable to the present over 30–10 Ma. Diagnosis indicates that the weaker strengths and distorted pathways of the PNA before ∼40 Ma are due to weaker meridional temperature gradients in warmer climates, which causes weakened extratropical westerly jet and altered extratropical waveguide of planetary-scale stationary waves. After ∼40 Ma, Earth climate became much colder, entering into the icehouse climate. Thus, the PNA pattern is close to the present state.

Traditional knowledge for climate resilience in the Pacific Islands

AbstractPacific Islands, many relatively remote and small, have been occupied by people for more than 3000 years during which time they experienced climate‐driven environmental changes (both slow and rapid onset) that challenged human survival and led to the evolution of place‐based coping strategies expressed through traditional knowledge (TK). In today's globalized Pacific Islands region, into which western worldviews and global adaptation strategies have made significant inroads, most plans for coping with climate‐changed futures are founded in science‐based understandings of the world that undervalue and sideline TK. Many such plans have proved difficult to implement as a consequence. This paper reviews the nature of extant Pacific TK for coping with climate change, something that includes TK for anticipating climate change (including climate variability and climate extremes) as well as ancillary TK associated with food and water security, traditional ecological knowledge, environmental conservation, and settlement and house construction that represent coping strategies. Much of this TK can be demonstrated as being effective with precedents in other (traditional) contexts and a compelling plausible scientific basis. This study demonstrates that Pacific Islands TK for coping with climate change has value and, especially because of its place‐based nature, should be central to future climate‐change adaptation strategies to enhance their uptake, effectiveness and sustainability. To this end, this paper proposes specific ways forward to optimize the utility of TK and ensure it has a realistic role in sustaining Pacific Island communities into the future.This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Ideas and Knowledge Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change

THE ARCTIC: THE STRUGGLE FOR RESOURCES AND INFLUENCE IN THE REGION

Modern climate changes caused by the processes of global warming are clearly reflected in the geopolitical interests of various states of the world in relation to the Arctic region. Accordingly, the relevance of the study of this issue is caused by the formation in the last decade of a number of opportunities that may be open to a state that will establish its influence in the Arctic. This is due to a combination of economic and political advantages expressed in the extraordinary amount of resources that characterize this region, the development of rational sea routes, the satisfaction of commercial goals and even the protection of the sovereignty of coastal countries. Thus, the purpose of the work was to define the Arctic as a political arena, in particular, to reveal the interests and plans of various countries regarding its territory and resources. For this, the research used the method of analysis and synthesis, comparison, deduction, generalization, as well as historical. As a result, it was established that active climatic changes in the world cause the formation and development of new economic opportunities in the Arctic. Accordingly, the role of this region was determined for such countries as Canada, Russia, United States of America, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Finland. It was possible to establish that their interests are to a greater extent caused by the desire to control the operation of the Northern Sea Route. In addition, the work described the advantages of the Arctic region, which describe the priority of establishing control over this territory by the relevant state. In particular, it is beneficial for the development of economic activity, the protection of the territories of coastal countries, it is characterized by a significant number of deposits of natural resources and other minerals, as well as wide transit opportunities. Thus, it was proved that it is appropriate to consider the Arctic as a socio-cultural, ethnic, socio-economic, geopolitical space around the North Pole, the resources of which provoke world states to compete with each other. The practical value of the work is revealed in the possibility of using its results for further scientific research, as well as educational material for those studying the Arctic and its role in international relations.

Развитие законодательства об охране российских объектов всемирного природного наследия в контексте решений сорок пятой сессии Комитета всемирного наследия

The decisions taken at the forty-fifth session of the World Heritage Committee regarding the World Natural Heritage sites located on Russian territory are analyzed. The most common problems characteristic of the majority of Russian unique natural complexes of global importance are noted. Gaps in the regulatory and legal consolidation of the World Natural heritage protection regime in legislation, acute conflicts related to the need to harmonize environmental requirements and infrastructure development are identified. The legal positions of the World Heritage Committee regarding the implementation of capital construction within the boundaries of World Heritage sites are analyzed. The constructive nature of the decisions adopted at the forty-fifth session of the World Heritage Committee is stated, proposals are formulated to improve legislation in the field of protection of World Natural heritage sites. The necessity of introducing amendments to the Federal Law “On Specially Protected Natural Territories”, defining the features of the protection of natural complexes of international importance, is substantiated. The importance of taking into account the modern climate agenda in ensuring the preservation of World Natural Heritage sites is emphasized.

An abrupt vegetation change on south-central Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during the last deglaciation

The magnitude and pace of anthropogenic climate change are increasing the likelihood of abrupt changes in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. The Last Deglacial Transition (LDT) witnessed global and regional climate change and caused vegetation change globally. The recognition and attribution of deglacial abrupt vegetation conversion would certainly enhance our understanding on the survivability and resilience of ecosystems to climate change. Here, we conducted statistical analyses for a pollen record from Yilong Lake, southwestern China, focusing on the period of the LDT. Biome changes since the Last Glacial Maximum were reconstructed numerically by using a standard approach of pollen-plant functional type-biome assignment (biomization). Principal component analysis and structure change test were applied on pollen composition and diversity data. Modern vegetation and climate relationship was analyzed to discuss climatic conditions for the vegetation conversion in Yilong region during the LDT. Our results revealed a vegetation conversion occurring around 14.3 cal kyr BP, characterized by abrupt shifts in pollen compositions and biomes and also reduction in diversity indices. We suggested that the cumulative pressure of climate warming during the LDT was probably the critical climatic variable triggering the vegetation conversion in Yilong region, while precipitation played an important role in regulating the proportions or coverages of different vegetation types after the development of evergreen broadleaved forest. By the end of tthis century, climate under intermediate to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios were projected to reach the thresholds for vegetation transitions from evergreen broadleaved forest to (monsoon) rainforest, or to Savanna-like vegetation. However, it is still a challenge to forecast accurately when or on what spatial scale vegetation change will happen because vegetation responses to climate change are complicated and the topography and habitats on Yunnan Plateau are extremely diverse.