Earth Model Research Articles

Development and validation of a general-purpose ReaxFF reactive force field for earth material modeling.

ReaxFF reactive force field bridges the gap between nonreactive molecular simulations and quantum mechanical calculations and has been widely applied during the past two decades. However, its application to earth materials, especially those under high T-P conditions relevant to Earth's interior, is still limited due to the lack of available parameters. Here, we present the development and validation of a ReaxFF force field containing several of the most common elements in Earth's crust, i.e., Si/Al/O/H/Na/K. The force field was trained against a large data set obtained from density functional theory (DFT) calculations, including charges, bond/angle distortion curves, equation of states, ion migration energy profiles, and condensation reaction energies. Different coordination environments were considered in the training set. The fitting results showed that the current force field can well reproduce the DFT data (the Pearson correlation coefficient, Rp, is 0.95). We validated the force field on mineral-water interfaces, hydrous melts/supercritical geofluids, and bulk crystals. It was found that the current force field performed excellently in predicting the structural, thermodynamic, and transport properties of various systems (Rp = 0.95). Moreover, possible applications and future development have been discussed. The results obtained in this study suggest that the current force field holds good promise to model a wide range of processes and thus open opportunities to advance the application of ReaxFF in earth material modeling.

Effects of Andrade and Burgers rheologies on glacial isostatic adjustment modeling in Antarctica

Variations in ice mass deform the Earth and modify its gravity field, a process known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). GIA in Antarctica remains poorly constrained due to the cumulative effect of past and present ice-mass changes, the unknown history of the past ice-mass change, and the uncertainties on the mechanical properties of the Earth. This paper investigates the effect of using Andrade and Burgers viscoelastic rheologies, rather than the commonly used Maxwell rheology, to model GIA-induced deformation in Antarctica. The Love number and Green's function formalism are used to compute the radial surface displacements and the gravity changes induced by the past and present ice-mass changes. We consider an Earth model whose elastic properties and radial structure are averaged from the Preliminary Reference Earth Model and two viscosity profiles to account for the recently published results on the present ice-mass changes. Using the three rheological laws affects the temporal response of the Earth differently, leading to smaller discrepancies than those induced by the two viscosity structures. The differences are the largest between Maxwell and Burgers rheologies during the 100–1000 years following the beginning of the surface-mass change. Results show that using the Andrade and Burgers rheologies allows the Earth to respond on decennial to centennial time scales, up to 10 m more than Maxwell. Considering only the recent ice-mass changes, the deformation rates derived from Burgers and Andrade rheologies are several times larger than those estimated by Maxwell rheology.

Building 1D Mechanical Earth Model for Subba Oilfield in Iraq

At the Subba oil field, wellbore stability is the main concern while drilling. The wellbore's instability causes several issues, including: (inefficient hole cleaning, tight hole, stuck pipe, mud losses, caving, bad cementing, and well kick or blowout). This increases Non-Productive Time (NPT) and well-drilling costs; hence the operator's main goal is to create a drilling program that reduces these problems and therefore reduce drilling cost. The study aims to build a 1D mechanical earth model to predict the wellbore failure and design optimum mud weight to improve the drilling efficiency for future wells. The model includes pore pressure, stress state, and rock mechanical parameters (such as UCS, angle of friction, Young-Modulus, and Poisson-Ratio). To achieve this aim, the study utilised offset well data including log data (Gama-Ray Logs (GR), Caliper Logs (CALI), Density Logs (RHOZ), and Compressional Sonic (DTCO) and Shear Sonic (DTSM)), Core tests, Mini-frac field tests, Drilling Reports, Mud Reports, and Mud Log Reports (master log) to estimate and calibrate the profiles of formation pore pressure, rock mechanical properties, and in-situ stresses. The 1D mechanical earth model was built using the Excel program for three wells data set, where all the necessary parameters to create the model was calculated, calibrated for the calculated variables with core data and pressure test points, and finally the safe mud window was detected. The results showed that the Eaton Slowness method to predict pore pressure perfectly matches the pressure test points. The most common fault regimes in the Subba oilfield are normal and strike-slip faults. The Modified Lade criteria showed a compatible match with drilling events and calliper log in predicting the failure zones, so it is the best criterion in determining minimum and maximum mud weight. Based on the results of this study and in comparison with the mud window used in drilling operations in the field, it is necessary to change the mud window used in drilling and adopt the safe MWW of this study in drilling new wells in this field and the area adjacent to the field.

Three-dimensional simulation and characterization of airborne transient electromagnetic response in rough media

In fractal, porous, and cranny rough media, the diffusion of the electromagnetic (EM) field differs from that in piecewise smooth media. This phenomenon is known as anomalous diffusion. To study the influence of anomalous diffusion on EM signals, we use the fractional time derivative and derive a governing equation describing the subdiffusion process of electric fields in rough media. Three-dimensional forward modeling of the time-domain airborne EM is performed using the finite-difference method and frequency-time transformation. We verify the accuracy of our forward-modeling method by comparing it with semianalytical solutions for a layered earth model. The numerical results indicate that as the conductivity of rough media decreases with time, the amplitude of the EM field decreases during the early periods but increases during subsequent periods compared with nonrough media. The EM field does not diffuse in the classical mode of the “smoke ring,” but instead demonstrates a “trailing pattern,” meaning that it maintains its maximum value at positions close to the source and diffuses outward and attenuates until it vanishes.

Source parameter inversion of the 2021 MW7.4 Maduo earthquake and stress transfer in the eastern Bayan Har block

In order to explore the constraint degree of GNSS and InSAR data on the Maduo earthquake under the layered earth model structure, and to understand the cause of the Maduo earthquake and the danger of the surrounding area, this paper uses D-InSAR technology to obtain the InSAR co-seismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake on May 22,2021. Based on GNSS and InSAR data, the co-seismic slip model and fault plane stress distribution of the Maduo earthquake are jointly inverted. This paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes caused by 14 M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes co-seismic, post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation and inter-seismic tectonic stress loading of 19 fault segments in the Bayan Har block research area (96°E-106°E, 29°N-36°N) since 1900. The results show that: (1) The maximum Line Of Sight (LOS) deformation obtained based on the ascending and descending InSAR data was about 0.9 m. The maximum slip amount of GNSS + InSAR joint inversion is 4.87 m, which is located in the Dongcao Along Lake section (∼98.6°E). Combined with the stress drop distribution of the fault surface, it is found that the Maduo earthquake is dominated by strike-slip. (2) The historical strong earthquakes delayed the Maduo earthquake by nearly 103 years. The 1937 Huashixia earthquake, the 1947 Dari earthquake, the 1963 Dulan earthquake, and the 1973 Luhuo earthquake had the greatest stress unloading effect, which was equivalent to delaying the Maduo earthquake by 53 years, 21 years, 11 years, and 17 years, respectively. The cumulative Coulomb stress at the source location of the Maduo earthquake reached 0.0112 MPa. Most area of the fault sections such as the East Kunlun Fault, the Maduo-Gande Fault, the western and eastern sections of the Dari Fault, the western and eastern sections of the Qingshuihe Fault, the Ganzi-Yushu Fault, and the eastern section of the Kunlunshankou-Jiangcuo Fault are in the Coulomb stress loading area, which should be paid attention to.

Effects of the Earth curvature on Mie-scattering radiances at high solar-sensor geometries based on Monte Carlo simulations.

Given the importance of vector radiative transfer models in ocean color remote sensing and a lack of suitable models capable of analyzing the Earth curvature effects on Mie-scattering radiances, this study presents an enhanced vector radiative transfer model for a spherical shell atmosphere geometry by the Monte Carlo method (MC-SRTM), considering the effects of Earth curvature, different atmospheric conditions, flat sea surface reflectance, polarization, high solar and sensor geometries, altitudes and wavelengths. A Monte Carlo photon transport model was employed to simulate the vector radiative transfer processes and their effects on the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances. The accuracy of the MC-SRTM was verified by comparing its scalar model outputs from Henyey-Greenstein (HG) phase function with the Kattawar-Adams model results, and the mean relative differences were less than 2.75% and 4.33% for asymmetry factors (g-values) of 0.5 and 0.7, respectively. The vector mode results of MC-SRTM for a spherical shell geometry with the Mie-scattering phase matrix were compared with the PCOART-SA model results (from Polarized Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer model based on the pseudo-spherical assumption), and the mean relative differences were less than 2.67% when solar zenith angles (SZAs) > 70 ∘ and sensor viewing zenith angles (VZAs) < 60 ∘ for two aerosol models (coastal and tropospheric models). Based on the MC-SRTM, the effects of Earth curvature on TOA radiances at high SZAs and VZAs were analyzed. For pure aerosol atmosphere, the effects of Earth curvature on TOA radiances reached up to 5.36% for SZAs > 70 ∘ and VZAs < 60 ∘ and reduced to less than 2.60% for SZAs < 70 ∘ and VZAs > 60 ∘. The maximum Earth curvature effect of pure aerosol atmosphere was nearly same (10.06%) as that of the ideal molecule atmosphere. The results also showed no statistically significant differences for the aerosol-molecule mixed and pure aerosol atmospheres. Our study demonstrates that there is a need to consider the Earth curvature effects in the atmospheric correction of satellite ocean color data at high solar and sensor geometries.

Investigation of Error Margin of Some Path Loss Models Over Digital Terrestrial Television Channel in Katsina Metropolis

Due to rapid development in mobile communication technology in recent times, strong signal coverage has become a major necessity. However, path loss is one of the major challenges against strong signal coverage. Several path loss models have been developed for predicting wireless signal coverage for urban, sub-urban and rural areas. However, the need to investigate which model can best predict losses in an environment becomes necessary. This work is aimed at comparing the Error Margin of some Path loss Models over Digital Terrestrial Television (DTTV) channel using the Star Times DTTV Channel within Katsina metropolis. Seven path loss predicting models for outdoor macro cell wireless communication were used. They are; Free Space model, COST-231 model, (developed by the European Union Co-operative for Scientific and Technical Research Team) Hata - Okurmura model, Plane Earth model, Okumura model, Ericson model and ECC model. The measurement campaigns were in two seasons, the wet season was in August and dry season in November, 2021. Both measured and predicted path loss values were computed using empirical models. Statistical error analysis based on the RMSE was carried out to determine the error margins between measured and predicted values. Based on the result of path loss assessment and error analysis, COST-231 with the lowest RMSE value of 13.49 dB which is within the acceptable range for sub-urban city is the most preferred amongst the investigated models for path loss prediction over digital UHF channel in Katsina city

Novel techniques for in situ estimation of shear-wave velocity and damping ratio through MASW testing part II: a Monte Carlo algorithm for the joint inversion of phase velocity and phase attenuation

SUMMARY This paper deals with in situ characterization of the small-strain shear-wave velocity VS and damping ratio DS from an advanced interpretation of Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) surveys. A new approach based on extracting Rayleigh wave data using the CFDBFa method has been discussed in the companion paper. This paper focuses on mapping the experimental Rayleigh wave phase velocity and attenuation into profiles of VS and DS versus depth, which is achieved through a joint inversion procedure. The joint inversion of phase velocity and attenuation data utilizes a newly developed Monte Carlo global search algorithm, which implements a smart sampling procedure. This scheme exploits the scaling properties of the solution of the Rayleigh eigenvalue problem to modify the trial earth models and improve the matching with the experimental data. Thus, a reliable result can be achieved with a limited number of trial ground models. The proposed algorithm is applied to the inversion of synthetic data and of experimental data collected at the Garner Valley Downhole Array site, as described in the companion paper. In general, inverted soil models exhibit well-defined VS profiles, whereas DS profiles are affected by larger uncertainties. Greater uncertainty in the inverted DS profiles is a direct result of higher variability in the experimental attenuation data, the limited wavelength range at which reliable values of attenuation parameters can be retrieved, and the sensitivity of attenuation data to both DS and VS. Nonetheless, the resulting inverted earth models agree well with alternative in situ estimates and geological data. The results stress the feasibility of retrieving both stiffness and attenuation parameters from active-source MASW testing and the effectiveness of extracting in situ damping ratio estimates from surface wave data.

Impacts of Local Green's Functions on Modeling Atmospheric Loading Effects for GNSS Reference Stations

AbstractThe Green's function approach is well‐established and widely used for modeling the surface mass loading displacements. Global mean Green's functions (MGFs) are commonly applied without considering local variations of the crustal structure. Derived from the modified layered Earth structure, the local Green's functions (LGFs) are theoretically beneficial to generate more accurate deformation, since they consider interior information of the local crust. This paper analyzed the differences among MGFs from Gutenberg–Bullen A model and two sets of LGFs derived from modified PREM Earth models consolidating with two crust models TEA12 and CRUST1.0, hereafter called PREMTEA and PREMCRU, respectively. Utilizing MGFs and two sets of LGFs, we modeled the corresponding 3D atmospheric loading displacements for 984 ITRF2014 stations and compared them with the ITRF2014 residuals. The results show that LGFs from PREMTEA and PREMCRU perform well in further promoting scatter reduction for ∼72%, ∼56%, and ∼85% of stations for the Up, East and North components, respectively. The improvements for the North components are significant (up to 3.6%). In particular, stations in the east coastal areas of North America and the west edge of Greenland exhibit further promoting scatter reduction for the East components (up to ∼2.5%), while those located in west coastline of North America show better performance for the North components. Nevertheless, there are significant anomalies in northern Europe for PREMCRU, the mutation margin of which should be carefully considered when using a resolution higher than 1°. In the area around station MORP (358.31°W, 55.21°N, sited at coastline of Britain), we suggest using PREMTEA model.

Exoplanet Analog Observations of Earth from Galileo Disk-integrated Photometry

The Galileo spacecraft had distant encounters with Earth in 1990 and 1992. Limited Solid State Imager (SSI) data acquired during these encounters has been previously presented, but the majority of the data from these Earth flybys have not been presented in the literature. Observations of Earth taken from afar are both rare and directly relevant to the development of any future exo-Earth direct imaging mission. Here we present a pipeline that vets, calibrates, and measures the disk-integrated brightness of the Earth, in multiple filters, from the complete SSI data sets from both the 1990 and 1992 Galileo flybys. The result is over 1500 usable photometric measurements for Earth as an analog for an exoplanet. The 1990 data set includes full rotational lightcurves in six bandpasses spanning the optical range. The 1992 data set is more limited, with lightcurves only spanning 14 hr. Time-averaged photometry for both encounters is presented while variability and color are discussed relative to findings from NASA’s EPOXI mission (which also provided photometric lighturves for Earth). The new Galileo/SSI data are used to further validate the Virtual Planetary Laboratory 3D spectral Earth model, which often serves as a stand-in for true disk-integrated observations of our planet. The revived Galileo/SSI data for Earth is a testament to the ability of NASA’s Planetary Data System to maintain data over decades-long timescales. The disk-integrated products derived from these data add to a very short list of calibrated and published whole-disk observations of the Pale Blue Dot.

Increasing the accuracy of the vessel’s course orientation

The object of the study is the process of increasing the accuracy of measuring the vessel's course and course orientation by using the mathematical model of the gyrocompass in the on-board computer. On modern vessels, the gyrocompass is the main course measuring device. Its advantages lie in measuring the current course relative to the geographic meridian, its readings are not affected by magnetic anomalies, as was the case when using magnetic compasses, which led to a partial or complete loss of orientation of control objects. At the same time, gyrocompasses also have their drawbacks. The most significant of them is the inertial deviation of the sensitive element caused by the curvature of the Earth's surface, a change in course, acceleration or deceleration of the vessel. With the appearance of the moments of these forces, the axis of the gyrocompass leaves the equilibrium position and begins to make precessional movements. To reduce the inertial deviation, constructive solutions and recommendations to shipmasters regarding the consideration of deviational errors are used. Structural solutions lead to an increase in weight, complexity of the design, a decrease in reliability, and an increase in cost. The recommendations of regulatory documents regarding the consideration of the inertial deviation of the sensitive element of the gyrocompass are difficult to implement in practice, but they can be implemented in the on-board computer of the vessel control system by using a mathematical model of the sensitive element. The paper developed a method of increasing the accuracy of gyrocompass course measurement and the accuracy of course orientation by using an observation device built on the basis of a mathematical model of the gyrocompass in the on-board computer of the course control system. This makes it possible to estimate the useful component of course measurement and deviational errors from changes in speed and course, the curvature of the earth's surface. The useful component, without deviational errors, is used in the vessel's course control channel. The developed method can be used on vessels, provided it is integrated into the existing automated system of the on-board computer to solve the problem of monitoring the components of the gyrocompass measurement.

Stress Evolution of the Main Himalayan Thrust Fault Induced by the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake

ABSTRACT The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake that occurred in 2015 is the largest thrust event in the middle of the main Himalayan thrust fault zone (MHT) in the past 81 yr. Its impact on the regional tectonic stress state and future seismic risks is a significant scientific issue worthy of in-depth analyses. In this study, we inverted the planar fault-slip model (the planar model), the flat-ramp fault-slip model (the flat-ramp model) and the double flat-ramp fault-slip model (the double flat-ramp model) to analyze the effect of the fault geometry, based on the steepest descent method (SDM) and the layered earth model. Compared with the flat-ramp model, the planar model exhibits a wider slip distribution in the down-dip direction of the main rupture zone, whereas the double flat-ramp model shows a larger coseismic slip on the middle ramp at the depth of 7.5–11.5 km. Those slip differences produce larger stress shadow areas in the above models, but for a blind thrust event induced by a low-dip thrust fault, this does not significantly change the distribution mode of coseismic Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) in the three models. Namely, there is an obvious stress release in the main rupture but an obvious stress loading in the up-dip and down-dip directions of the main rupture zone. Based on the Burgers rheological model, we calculated the postseismic viscoelastic Coulomb stress change (V−ΔCFS) and the cumulative Coulomb stress change (C−ΔCFS) induced by the Gorkha earthquake in the flat-ramp model and comparatively analyzed the evolution pattern of coseismic and postseismic stresses. Our results indicate that the variation trend of postseismic stress in the lithosphere is opposite to that of the coseismic ΔCFS. The postseismic viscoelastic relaxation promotes the slip of the flat-ramp structure at the depth of 10–25 km, and the stress unloads in the shallow and deep part simultaneously. As a blind thrust event, the coseismic ΔCFS still plays a dominant role in the shallow part after 50 yr, whereas the loading C−ΔCFS in the deep part of the MHT is greatly weakened by the postseismic V−ΔCFS. Seismic risks still exist in the unruptured area on the west side of the mainshock and the shallow Main Frontal thrust.

Coseismic Slip Distribution and Coulomb Stress Change of the 2023 MW 7.8 Pazarcik and MW 7.5 Elbistan Earthquakes in Turkey

On 6 February 2023, the MW 7.8 Pazarcik and the MW 7.5 Elbistan earthquakes occurred in southeastern Turkey, close to the Syrian border, causing many deaths and a great deal of property destruction. The Pazarcik earthquake mainly damaged the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The Elbistan earthquake mainly damaged the Cardak fault (CF) and the Doğanşehir fault (DF). In this study, Sentinel-1A ascending (ASC) and descending (DES) orbit image data and pixel offset tracking (POT) were used to derive surface deformation fields in the range and azimuth directions induced by the Pazarcik and Elbistan earthquakes (hereinafter referred to as the Turkey double earthquakes). Utilizing GPS coordinate sequence data, we computed the three-dimensional surface deformation resulting from the Turkey double earthquakes. The surface deformation InSAR and GPS results were combined to invert the coseismic slip distribution of the EAFZ, CF, and DF using a layered earth model. The results show that the coseismic ruptures of the Turkey double earthquakes were dominated by left-lateral strike-slips. The maximum slip was 7.76 m on the EAFZ and about 8.2 m on the CF. Both the earthquakes ruptured the surface. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) was computed based on the fault slip distribution and the geometric parameters of all the active faults within 300 km of the MW 7.8 Pazarcik earthquake’s epicenter. The CFS change resulting from the Pazarcik earthquake suggests that the subsequent Elbistan earthquake was triggered by the Pazarcik earthquake. The Antakya fault experienced an increase in CFS of 8.4 bars during this double-earthquake event. Therefore, the MW 6.3 Uzunbağ earthquake on 20 February 2023 was jointly influenced by the Turkey double earthquakes. Through stress analysis of all the active faults within 300 km of the MW 7.8 Pazarcik earthquake’s epicenter, the Ecemis segment, Camliyayla fault, Aadag fault, Ayvali fault, and Pula segment were all found to be under stress loading. Particularly, the Ayvali fault and Pula segment exhibited conspicuous stress loading, signaling a higher risk of future seismic activity.

On Clairaut's theory and its extension for planetary hydrostatic equilibrium derived using gravitational multipole formalism

SUMMARY Clairaut's theory that relates the Earth's oblate figure and internal ellipticity to its gravity under rotational-hydrostatic equilibrium has reigned classical geodesy over the centuries. In this paper, we (i) derive from first principles the classical Clairaut's theory for the polar oblateness of a rotating planet under axi-symmetric rotational-hydrostatic equilibrium and (ii) extend the development to the triaxial case for the equatorial ellipticity of a tidally locked synchronous-rotating moon under rotational-tidal-hydrostatic equilibrium. Typical derivations of the classical Clairaut's theory presented in the literature being rather laborious even to first order, we instead exploit two concise forms of methodology: the gravitational multipole formalism on the physics side, and the Jacobian determinant for the Clairaut coordinate transformation on the mathematics side. The outcome is a logical and straightforward derivation of Clairaut's theory to first order in its entirety, encompassing all the equations and related formulas in geodesy bearing Clairaut's name. That further allows a natural extension to a tidally locked moon. In particular it is demonstrated that the same Clairaut's differential equation applies to both cases governing both the polar oblateness and the equatorial ellipticity.

Retraction of: Self-consistent models of Earth's mantle and core from long-period seismic and tidal constraints

Retraction of: Self-consistent models of Earth's mantle and core from long-period seismic and tidal constraints

Reservoir basin characterization using one-dimensional (1D) mechanical earth modeling (MEM) for wellbore stability (WBS) analysis

Reservoir basin characterization using one-dimensional (1D) mechanical earth modeling (MEM) for wellbore stability (WBS) analysis

Advancements in geodesy techniques for Arctic region monitoring

The Arctic region is undergoing unprecedented environmental changes due to global climate change, necessitating robust monitoring and research efforts. Geodesy, the science of accurately measuring Earth's shape, orientation, and gravitational field, plays a critical role in understanding these changes. This article explores the applications, challenges, and future directions of geodesy in the Arctic. Satellite-based techniques such as GNSS, SAR, and satellite altimetry are utilized to monitor ice mass loss, sea level rise, and land deformation with high precision. Challenges in Arctic geodesy include harsh environmental conditions, data accuracy, and the integration of multi-source data. Despite these challenges, ongoing advancements in satellite technology, data processing algorithms, and collaboration initiatives hold promise for addressing these issues and improving our understanding of Arctic environmental dynamics. By leveraging geodesy techniques and emerging technologies, researchers can contribute to the sustainable management of the Arctic environment and its broader implications for global climate change mitigation and adaptation.

CCEM: A System Dynamics Earth Model for Capturing Beliefs Related to the Coupling of Energy, Economy and Global Warming

This paper presents CCEM (Coupling Coarse Earth Models), a system dynamics simulation model that represents the earth as a complex system, with a focus on the feedback loops associated with global warming. CCEM combines five simpler models, addressing energy availability, economic adjustment to energy scarcity, energy transition, global economy and CO2 emissions, and the impact of CO2 emissions on warming and society. The model aims to make implicit beliefs explicit and demonstrate that the same mental model can support various viewpoints by changing beliefs associated with "known unknowns". CCEM, compared with other Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), enriches the feedback loop from global warming to the energy/economy system by representing the impacts of global warming and the associated retroactions. The model introduces a "pain factor" as a non-linear trigger for redirection, accounting for pain from warming, economic results, and energy shortages. CCEM emphasizes that the complex system of energy, economy, climate, and society will evolve chaotically through redirections, making forecasting and planning difficult, but provides a foundation for game theoretical analysis of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems

Abstract Recently, there has been a surge of research on data-driven weather forecasting systems, especially applications based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). These are usually trained on atmospheric data represented on regular latitude–longitude grids, neglecting the curvature of Earth. We assess the benefit of replacing the standard convolution operations with an adapted convolution operation that takes into account the geometry of the underlying data (SphereNet convolution), specifically near the poles. Additionally, we assess the effect of including the information that the two hemispheres of Earth have “flipped” properties—for example, cyclones circulating in opposite directions—into the structure of the network. Both approaches are examples of physics-informed machine learning. The methods are tested on the WeatherBench dataset, at a resolution of ∼1.4°, which is higher than many previous studies on CNNs for weather forecasting. For most lead times up to day +10 for 500-hPa geopotential and 850-hPa temperature, we find that using SphereNet convolution or including hemisphere-specific information individually leads to improvement in forecast skill. Combining the two methods typically gives the highest forecast skill. Our version of SphereNet is implemented flexibly and scales well to high-resolution datasets but is still significantly more expensive than a standard convolution operation. Finally, we analyze cases with high forecast error. These occur mainly in winter and are relatively consistent across different training realizations of the networks, pointing to flow-dependent atmospheric predictability.

Assessing climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. using ecological niche modeling

In recent decades, ecological niche modeling (ENM) has become integral for assessing climate change impacts on species distributions. In this study we conducted a comprehensive ENM using the Kuenm R package, employing MaxEnt as the modeling algorithm, to evaluate the impact of climate change on the habitat of Castanea sativa Mill., a non-wood forest species of high commercial interest in Turkiye, within the limits of the Trabzon Regional Directorate of Forestry (RDF). Predictors related to the species' ecology were carefully selected. The Future distributions of C. sativa for 2061–2080 under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6, 2-4.5, and 5-8.5 were modeled using predictions from the Hadley Centre Global Earth Model HadGEM-GC31-LL. Extensive calibration modeling with Kuenm resulted in 434 models, and the most robust model, determined by statistical significance, predictive power, and complexity, revealed a drastic reduction in suitable areas for C. sativa (ranging from 86% to 99% across SSPs). The critical values of bio1 and bio5 were identified as primary factors. Predictions suggest potential migration of C. sativa to higher latitudes or elevations seeking more favorable climatic conditions. The substantial reduction in habitat suitability, even under SSP1-2.6, poses a significant threat, emphasizing the need for urgent measures to mitigate climate change impacts and ensure the species' survival and continuity.