Mitigation Scenarios Research Articles

Inequalities in Air Pollution Exposure and Attributable Mortality in a Low Carbon Future

AbstractUnderstanding the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation options is crucial to justify and prioritize future decarbonization pathways to achieve net zero. Here, we quantified the co‐benefits of decarbonization for air quality and public health under scenarios that aim to limit end‐of‐century warming to 2°C and 1.5°C. We estimated the mortality burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure using population attributable fractions of relative risk, incorporating projected changes in population demographics. We found that implementation of decarbonization scenarios could produce substantial global reductions in population exposure to PM2.5 pollution and associated premature mortality, with maximum health benefits achieved in Asia around mid‐century. The stringent 1.5ºC‐compliant decarbonization scenario (SSP1‐1.9) could reduce the PM2.5‐attributable mortality burden by 29% in 2050 relative to a middle‐of‐the‐road scenario (SSP2‐4.5), averting around 2.9 M annual deaths worldwide. While all income groups were found to benefit from improved air quality through a combination of decarbonization and air pollution controls, the smallest health benefits are experienced by the low‐income population. The disparity in PM2.5 exposure across income groups is projected to reduce by 2100, but a 30% disparity between high‐ and low‐income groups persists even in the strongest mitigation scenario. Further, without additional and targeted air quality measures, low‐ and lower‐middle‐income populations (predominantly in Africa and Asia) will continue to experience PM2.5 exposures that are over three times the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline.

Using Large Ensembles to Examine Historical and Projected Changes in Record‐Breaking Summertime Temperatures Over the Contiguous United States

AbstractThe frequency and intensity of heat extremes over the United States have increased since the mid‐20th century and are projected to increase with additional anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. We define heat extremes as summertime (June–August) daily maximum 2m temperatures that exceed historical records. We examine characteristics of historical and near‐future heat extremes using observations and past and future projections using 100 ensemble members from three coupled global climate models large ensemble simulations. We find that the large ensembles capture the trend and variability of heat extremes over the period 2006–2020 relative to the 1991–2005 climatology but overestimate the frequency at which the heat extremes occur. In future warming scenarios, heat extremes continue to increase over the next 30 years, with high amplitude records in the Northwest and Central US. After 2050, we find there is a spread in the frequency of heat extremes that is dependent on the emissions scenario, with a high emissions until mid‐century followed by a high mitigation scenario showing a decrease in heat extremes by the end of the century. Although the frequency of future heat extremes is likely overestimated in the large ensembles, they are still a powerful tool for researching extreme temperatures in the climate system.

Scenario mitigation of threats and disruptions to development plan of Nuclear Power Plan (NPP) in Indonesia

Plans for the development of nuclear power plants in Indonesia have existed since the Soekarno regime in 1945, but have never reached the policy implementation stage until the current presidency of Joko Widodo. This is related to obstacles that can be in the form of Threats, Disruptions, Obstacles and Challenges (AGHT), so that it always fails in the implementation process, both on a global, national and regional scale due to issues in the social, political, technological, and other realms. The purpose of this study is to analyze the scenario of Threats and Disruptions mitigation scenarios for the development of nuclear power plants in Indonesia. The results of the study indicate that the mitigation of the threat of nuclear power plant development plans in Indonesia is through First Track Diplomacy and Second Track Diplomacy, guided by Law No. 10 of 1997 in decision making, and integrated community involvement in supporting government programs. Mitigation of disruptions to the nuclear power plant development plan in Indonesia through a policy of targeting the energy mix by optimizing the use of NRE other than nuclear, while developing a nuclear power plant development plan, implementing a Carbon Tax, socialization through K/L cooperation regarding the use of nuclear energy for nuclear power plants, various fields and second track diplomacy.

Green Energy Prospects of Electricity Generated from Short-Rotation Woody Crops—Quantifying the EROIg of Bioelectricity

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report (AR6) allocates 15% to 43% of global primary energy to biomass in 2050 across multiple mitigation scenarios. The report also emphasizes the importance of electrification. For increased reliance on electricity and on biomass, bioelectricity is expected to play a major role. It is therefore vital to know whether the energy generation potential of biomass electricity can support the removal of its environmental impact, particularly as generation at large scale is expected to rely almost solely on energy crops. This paper evaluates the potential of short-rotation woody crops in generating green electricity. This is performed using the “Green Energy Return on Investment (EROIg)” methodology, which indicates the net energy generated after investing in ecosystem maintenance energy (ESME). This study found that the EROIg of bioelectricity is marginally larger than unity when converted to its primary equivalent form (EROIg-PE). Three design options were proposed to improve bioenergy’s EROIg. Among these options, pelletizing wood chips has the largest advantage with an EROIg of 1.11 and an EROIg-PE of 3.17. We conclude with a discussion of the indirect advantages of growing energy crops, and discuss how this technique can be used alongside others to help generate cleaner energy.

Climate targets, carbon dioxide removal, and the potential role of ocean alkalinity enhancement

Abstract. The Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 ∘C requires the ambitious reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and the balancing of remaining emissions through carbon sinks (i.e., the deployment of carbon dioxide removal or CDR). While ambitious climate mitigation scenarios until now primarily consider land-based CDR methods, there is growing concern about their potential to deliver sufficient CDR, and marine CDR options are receiving more and more interest. Based on idealized theoretical studies, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) appears as a promising marine CDR method. However, the knowledge base is insufficient for a robust assessment of its practical feasibility, of its side effects, social and governance aspects, and monitoring and verification issues. A number of research efforts aims to improve this in a timely manner. We provide an overview on the current situation of developing OAE as a marine CDR method and describe the history that has led to the creation of the OAE research best practices guide.

Ambiguities in implementing regulations for sustainable groundwater resources development in Vietnam with a case study of Tra Vinh province in Mekong Delta

Study regionThe study region is the coastal Tra Vinh province located in Mekong Delta, Vietnam Study focusThe study aims to clarify the ambiguities in implementing Vietnam's regulation on restrictions of groundwater abstraction in Mekong Delta. Three ambiguities were identified, namely, how should half of the saturated thickness of the unconfined aquifer be computed; is the water level depth of 30 m for the confined aquifer sufficient to prevent seawater intrusion and land subsidence; and why is the interference of water use rights of neighbouring provinces not considered. Numerical groundwater flow, saltwater transport and land subsidence were constructed for Tra Vinh province to assess water level requirements from Vietnam regulation and important constraints for groundwater sustainability. The model results show that although all scenarios satisfy groundwater level requirements from the Vietnam regulation, only the mitigation scenario combined with reducing abstraction and increasing recharge can lead to sustainable development. New hydrological insights for the regionThe current groundwater abstraction in Tra Vinh province has caused groundwater storage depletion and induced seawater intrusion, land subsidence, and captured groundwater inflow from neighbouring provinces. When the business as usual continues, seawater may intrude 4–5 km inland and cumulative land subsidence may reach 1.5 m by 2100. Reduction of current abstraction by 50% supplemented with the increase of recharge by 1.5 times in the dunes can lead to sustainable development.

Drought characteristics projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios in Syria

Study regionSyria Study focusThis study delves into predicting drought characteristics in Syria, focusing on their duration, frequency, and intensity. It utilizes a set of 13 models sourced from the latest CMIP6 dataset, encompassing two distinct SSP scenarios. To evaluate how well CMIP6 represents drought attributes in Syria, the research conducts a comparison with observed monthly climate data from CRU TS v4.06 and ERA 5, as well as the CMIP6 model ensemble outputs for the reference period (1970–2000). New hydrological insights for the regionThis study provides new hydrological insights for Syria. It reveals robust projections of increasing drought severity, frequency, and duration, particularly in the north and northeast arid and semi-arid regions, even under aggressive climate mitigation scenarios. Additionally, the study highlights that higher emissions scenarios are associated with more prolonged and intense drought events, potentially impacting even less vulnerable areas. These findings emphasize the urgent need for drought adaptation and mitigation measures, as well as improved water resource planning, in order to address the changing hydrological landscape of the region. Furthermore, it underscores the long-lasting effects of drought on ecosystem recovery, which may span several decades.

Beyond emissions trading to a negative carbon economy: a proposed carbon removal obligation and its implementation

ABSTRACT According to most climate mitigation scenario assessments, limiting global warming to 1.5–2°C in the long run will not be possible without the extensive deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. CDR is required for drawing down and achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by mid-century. Thereafter, CO2 removals will likely need to exceed residual CO2 emissions, resulting in net negative emissions. A policy framework based on ‘carbon removal obligations’ (CROs) has been proposed to respond to concerns about the financial and fiscal viability, the lack of incentives for CDR uptake, as well as the physical and technological risks associated with any climate mitigation scenario that relies on large scale CDR. Here we propose an updated and improved CRO policy framework, consisting of two core elements: the ‘principal CRO mechanism’ obliges emitters of a tonne of CO2 to remove a tonne of CO2 at the time of maturity of the CRO. On top of this obligation, CRO holders need to pay a fee for the temporary storage of CO2 in the atmosphere. This ‘CRO pricing instrument’ is used by regulators to steer the carbon emissions and removals pathways independently. Our update suggests that markets for CDR under the CRO framework should operate independently from markets for emission reductions. We propose a blueprint for legal implementation where CROs are integrated akin to private financial borrowing and debt mechanisms. By aligning CROs with established financial systems, we leverage familiar institutional roles, seamlessly integrating climate mitigation into the core economy.

Ambitious near-term decarbonization and direct air capture deployment in Latin America's net-zero goal

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended more stringent climate mitigation strategies compared to the updated nationally determined contributions (NDC) presented by nations at COP27 to keep global warming temperatures below 2 °C. Given the unique geographical, political, and socioeconomic factors in different regions, it is imperative to evaluate diverse mitigation scenarios required to achieve global climate objectives. This study focuses on the Latin America and Caribbean region due to its vulnerability to global climate adversities and deteriorating climate conditions, notwithstanding its minor contribution to global emissions. Despite facing distinct climate changes, Latin America remains significantly understudied in the broader context of global climate research. The deployment of negative emission technology (NET) is crucial for achieving the end-of-century global climate goal of limiting global mean temperature to 1.5 °C and realizing regional net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. Most countries in Latin America have established such targets for 2050. Among various NETs, Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) has recently gained research interests. This study examines the strategic implementation of NETs across the five socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to provide a comprehensive understanding of the uncertainties in regional mitigation actions and impacts on the intricate climate-energy-land-food-water nexus. In the scenario where emissions decrease by 56 % by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (NDC-56 %) on a net-zero trajectory, energy consumption under DACCS deployment is 13.1–36.2 % higher than without DACCS (between 2040 and 2100, across all SSPs). The energy demands of DACCS, especially in the aggressive NDC-56 % scenario place significant strain on energy resources, which is offset by fossil fuels. Under a globally co-ordinated climate policy and co-deployment of DACCS and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), the NDC-56 % scenario restricts global warming temperatures to 1.81–1.96 °C by 2100.

Study on the Design and Implementation of BPPT-lock Armored Groin for Sediment Control Structure in Front of Sea Water Intake

High rate accumulation of sediment materials in front of the sea water intake (SWI) of a petrochemical factory cooling water system has caused high maintenance dredging costs. A study was conducted to identify the pattern and rate of sedimentation and to find an engineering solution that enables controlling sedimentation rate reduction. Based on numerical simulation, it is identified that the existing total rate of sedimentation around the channel in front of the SWI is 50cm/year. Further numerical simulation series revealed an optimum mitigation scenario by the construction of a pair of groin along both sides of the channel in front of the SWI as a sediment control structure. Under this scenario, the average bed level change becomes 0.10 cm/year and the maximum value of the bed level change is around 24.96 cm/year. A BPPT-lock armored rubble mound-type structure was designed for this sediment control groin by considering its feasibility, ease of construction, and local availability of structure materials. BPPT-lock is selected due to its high hydraulic stability (KD) of 17 for the trunk application and 13 for the head application. It is found that about twenty-five percent more armor unit numbers were required at the final stage of construction compared to the designed one. The actual method of armor unit placement and arrangement during construction is considered the main cause of this difference. In this case, the calculation was designed for random placement, but the actual construction was in uniform placement. To provide economical insight, a calculation was made to compare the construction budget requirement between this constructed groin armored with BPPT-lock and if the same structure armored with tetrapod. The calculation result shows that BPPT-lock armor units required 64% less budget compared to the tetrapod.

Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Hydrogen Deployment in the Transition toward a Decarbonized Energy System.

The role of hydrogen in energy system decarbonization is being actively examined by the research and policy communities. We evaluate the potential "hydrogen economy" in global climate change mitigation scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We consider major hydrogen production methods in conjunction with delivery options to understand how hydrogen infrastructure affects its deployment. We also consider a rich set of hydrogen end-use technologies and vary their costs to understand how demand technologies affect deployment. We find that the availability of hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure primarily affects the hydrogen production mix, particularly the share produced centrally versus on-site, whereas assumptions about end-use technology primarily affect the scale of hydrogen deployment. In effect, hydrogen can be a source of distributed energy, enabled by on-site renewable electrolysis and, to a lesser extent, by on-site production at industrial facilities using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). While the share of hydrogen in final energy is small relative to the share of other major energy carriers in our scenarios, hydrogen enables decarbonization in difficult-to-electrify end uses, such as industrial high-temperature heat. Hydrogen deployment, and in turn its contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation, increases as the climate objective is tightened.

RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections

AbstractProjections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region‐by‐region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi‐model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross‐model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO2 between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil‐fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections.

PSXI-28 Nitrogen Footprint Assessment of Korean Native Beef Cattle Farms: Uncertainty Analysis and Mitigation Scenarios

Abstract Nitrogen (N) lost during beef cattle production accompanies various environmental impacts and has become an increasing concern among agricultural stakeholders. The objective of this study was to quantify the N footprint (NF) of Hanwoo beef cattle production in Korea at the farm gate through a life cycle assessment methodology. Field surveys were conducted on 106 farms across nine provinces to evaluate the NF of Hanwoo beef farms. N losses were calculated using emission factors using the refined Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline and expressed as NF [g N lost/kg of live body weight (LBW)]. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were deployed to evaluate the precision of the results and to quantify the variability of the input data. The NF was averaged 132.8 (±61.9) g N/kg LBW. Volatilization was the greatest contributing factor, followed by leaching and denitrification, each representing 68.4, 21.4, and 10.1 percent of the NF, respectively. The uncertainty of the output data was found to be 46.6 percent and was highly associated with emission factors uncertainties. We simulated four feasible mitigation scenarios that are cost effective and do not penalize productivity, and evaluated their capacity for reducing NF of meat: dietary modifications to decrease animal N excretion rates by adjusting the CP and rumen undegradable protein content for steers and fattening cows (A), microorganism additives to reduce volatilization from housing and manure storages through processing excess ammonium to synthesize microbial protein (B), using manure as land fertilizer instead of synthetic fertilizers to decrease denitrification from rice cultivation, and leaching and volatilization from all field types(C), and distributing straw-derived biochar (10 to 20 ton/ha) to the field after fertilizer application to reduce losses from crop production (D).Combining these scenarios demonstrated the potential to reduce NF by 12.3 percent. Overall, our study provides a national metric that can be used to communicate the N uses impact of Korean beef production. The analyses indicate that more precise results could be achieved with future endeavors toward developing country-specific emission factors. Integrating all four scenarios was shown to be the most effective approach to reducing the NF of beef production.

Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.

Effects of land-use mitigation scenarios on urban heat island intensity in Istanbul

This is the first comprehensive study to examine how urbanization affects the microclimate of Istanbul using the urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 with a 200 m horizontal resolution. In this study, the parameters in the land use table were estimated for Istanbul by combining different land use data sets and creating a high-resolution land use distribution. A specified heat wave episode was simulated via MUKLIMO_3 by using defined land use, meteorological sounding, and surface measurements. The findings suggest that MUKLIMO_3 can reasonably capture the 24-h daily temperature variation in both rural and urban locations, but it has a negative bias compared to station observations. We also employ eight mitigation scenarios by changing the albedo of roofs and implementing green-roofs and walls. All scenarios reduced air temperatures to varying degrees in urbanized areas along the northern Marmara coastline on both sides of Istanbul during daylight hours. The white and hybrid scenarios resulted in a temperature drop of up to 2 K at 12:00 UTC, with the most significant cooling effect observed in hybrid 4. Increasing the albedo of roofs from 0.5 to 0.7 resulted in the spatial expansion of cooled areas towards the north of the city along the Bosphorus. However, green roof scenarios are not found to be as effective as high-albedo scenarios.

Integrated assessment models and input–output analysis: bridging fields for advancing sustainability scenarios research

Technology-rich Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and Environmentally-Extended Input–Output Analysis (EEIOA) are widely employed for sustainability analysis, each offering unique strengths. IAMs focus on forward-looking scenarios, exploring technological shifts and climate change mitigation costs. EEIOA provides more comprehensive but static assessments of environmental and socio-economic impacts throughout supply chains, adopting a lifecycle perspective. I conduct a literature review to assess the current state of IAM-IO integration, paving the way for future research opportunities with advanced models. Existing studies have loosely linked IAM and IO models to improve one field or the other. This perspective highlights the potential for more advanced IAM-IO model linking and identifies three domains within sustainability scenarios research where IAM-IO integration could play a crucial role: the energy-industry nexus in decarbonization pathways, multi-dimensional sustainability impact assessment and demand-side solutions and post-growth climate mitigation scenarios. The expected research insights may be pivotal to design effective sustainable policies.

Agricultural emission reduction targets at country and global levels: a bottom-up analysis

ABSTRACT Few countries have declared sector-specific emission reduction targets in agriculture, making it difficult to construct and assess realistic climate mitigation scenarios for analytical and policymaking purposes. We aim to fill this analytical gap by using a set of cluster analyses to gauge likely ambitions levels in reducing agricultural emission at country-level, taking into consideration important country-level characteristics and referencing the ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ principle. We then use the results from the cluster analysis together with information from submitted NDCs and other considerations to design formulas for assigning numerical reduction targets to individual countries. Our main results indicate a global agricultural emission level in 2030 exceeding the limit for the 1.5°C temperature target, but representing substantially lower emissions than the no-policy scenario. At individual country-level, the scenarios consist of large emission reductions in Northern and Western Europe, followed by the USA and other developed economies, and emission increases in many developing countries. To facilitate the construction of alternative scenarios, our method also contains parameters for flexibility to scale up or down ambition levels at both country and global levels, making the method useful for other researchers to develop alternative scenarios.

Water quality mitigation strategy analysis of the Salton Sea, California, using the Delft-3D modeling suite

The Salton Sea is the largest lake in California and is a shallow, hypersaline lake. The endorheic lake has been significantly maintained by agricultural return flows from Imperial Valley farming and two rivers- the New River and Alamo River- which originate in Mexicali, Mexico. The current salinity is at 74 ppt and is expected to increase due to the Quantification Settlement Agreement signed in 2003, stipulating the transfer of nearly 0.616 km3 per year of Colorado River water to urban areas for up to 75 years. This has resulted in inflows reduction, and the dust storms created by the dried-up playa have become a prominent risk to public health in the region. Massive fish and bird kills began in the 1980s and continued to occur periodically. In this study, the Delft3D numerical modeling suite- FLOW, WAVE, and WAQ- was utilized to investigate the transport and cycling of nutrients under the influence of wind-induced sediment resuspension activity. The three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality combined model was applied to simulate mitigation scenarios to assess long-term effects on salinity and water quality of (1) emerged islands as a nature-based solution, (2) seawater import/export, and (3) seawater import/export in addition to treating tributary rivers to remove nutrients. Overall, this study supported the findings from previous studies and showed that sediment resuspension is the driving force for nutrients cycling in the water column and that emerged islands have long-term potential to enhance burial activity for pollutants removal in the Salton Sea. Furthermore, the seawater import/export scenario showed promising results of reducing salinity level from 46 ppt to 38–39 ppt in 2 years. The 3D numerical hydrodynamic/water quality model developed in this work is the first and latest integrated modeling approach tailored to the Salton Sea's system and has the capacity to improve understanding of the complicated water quality dynamics changes in various restoration concepts. This study demonstrated that being able to explore the full potentials of restoration designs using a comprehensive 3D water quality modeling framework is critical in achieving wholesome planning that will create environmental, social, and economic benefits in the long term for the Salton Sea.

Spatial and temporal analysis of drought-related climate indices for Hungary for 1971–2100

The lack of precipitation may cause severe damage in different sectors, especially in agriculture and forestry, therefore, its analysis is a key element of adaptation strategies in the changing climate. In the present study, we selected different climate indices as important indicators for forests to investigate the current and future wet and dry conditions in summer in Hungary. For the historical period (from 1971), the observation-based HuClim dataset is used, which already shows a slight drying trend in the past 50 years, especially in June. For the future, regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX program are used, taking into account two different RCP scenarios (a business-as-usual scenario and an intermediate mitigation scenario, i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively). Since mitigation starts to affect the climate system after about 20 years, results do not differ substantially for the two scenarios until 2060, however, the simulated changes highly depend on the applied RCP scenario in the late 21st century. Based on the De Martonne Index, a large expansion of semi-arid conditions is projected for the future in July and even more in August. The analysis of the Forestry Aridity Index shows that the steppe category will become dominant in 2081–2100, while the category optimal for beech may disappear entirely from Hungary according to the RCP8.5 scenario.

Urban microclimate simulations based on GIS data to mitigate thermal hot-spots: Tree design scenarios in an industrial area of Florence

Surface thermal hot-spot areas, and especially industrial and commercial areas, mainly characterized by high artificial surfaces and low vegetation coverages, consistently affect the livability in urban areas. In this study, one of the warmest areas of Florence (Italy), the main agri-food market was selected to perform three tree design mitigation scenarios: a) mitigation intervention by using 5-m high trees (T5), b) intervention with 10-m high trees (T10) and c) intervention alternating 5- and 10-m high trees (T5-10). The methodology was based on the microclimate monitoring and simulation by urban characterization, involving open GIS data from different data sources by using spatial software tools (QGIS and the ENVI-met software). Thermal patterns (air Temperature, AT; Mean Radiant Temperature, MRT; Surface Temperature, ST; Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) were simulated at 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. by the three scenarios and were then compared through a non-parametric statistical test with the ex-ante thermal situation. The results revealed that a 10% increase in the tree canopy on road surfaces had a significant impact on the thermal environment, showing the greatest effect at the surface level. The greatest cooling impact was observed during the afternoon (3 p.m.) considering the T10 three design scenario: MRT, ST and UTCI decreased by 6.0 °C, 4.1 °C and 1.7 °C respectively when compare to the ex-ante situation. These findings provide very useful information for urban planners and landscape architects to plan targeted interventions aimed at mitigating urban thermal anomalies in industrial areas.