Using Large Ensembles to Examine Historical and Projected Changes in Record‐Breaking Summertime Temperatures Over the Contiguous United States

Abstract

AbstractThe frequency and intensity of heat extremes over the United States have increased since the mid‐20th century and are projected to increase with additional anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. We define heat extremes as summertime (June–August) daily maximum 2m temperatures that exceed historical records. We examine characteristics of historical and near‐future heat extremes using observations and past and future projections using 100 ensemble members from three coupled global climate models large ensemble simulations. We find that the large ensembles capture the trend and variability of heat extremes over the period 2006–2020 relative to the 1991–2005 climatology but overestimate the frequency at which the heat extremes occur. In future warming scenarios, heat extremes continue to increase over the next 30 years, with high amplitude records in the Northwest and Central US. After 2050, we find there is a spread in the frequency of heat extremes that is dependent on the emissions scenario, with a high emissions until mid‐century followed by a high mitigation scenario showing a decrease in heat extremes by the end of the century. Although the frequency of future heat extremes is likely overestimated in the large ensembles, they are still a powerful tool for researching extreme temperatures in the climate system.