Ambitious near-term decarbonization and direct air capture deployment in Latin America's net-zero goal

Abstract

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended more stringent climate mitigation strategies compared to the updated nationally determined contributions (NDC) presented by nations at COP27 to keep global warming temperatures below 2 °C. Given the unique geographical, political, and socioeconomic factors in different regions, it is imperative to evaluate diverse mitigation scenarios required to achieve global climate objectives. This study focuses on the Latin America and Caribbean region due to its vulnerability to global climate adversities and deteriorating climate conditions, notwithstanding its minor contribution to global emissions. Despite facing distinct climate changes, Latin America remains significantly understudied in the broader context of global climate research. The deployment of negative emission technology (NET) is crucial for achieving the end-of-century global climate goal of limiting global mean temperature to 1.5 °C and realizing regional net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. Most countries in Latin America have established such targets for 2050. Among various NETs, Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) has recently gained research interests. This study examines the strategic implementation of NETs across the five socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to provide a comprehensive understanding of the uncertainties in regional mitigation actions and impacts on the intricate climate-energy-land-food-water nexus. In the scenario where emissions decrease by 56 % by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (NDC-56 %) on a net-zero trajectory, energy consumption under DACCS deployment is 13.1–36.2 % higher than without DACCS (between 2040 and 2100, across all SSPs). The energy demands of DACCS, especially in the aggressive NDC-56 % scenario place significant strain on energy resources, which is offset by fossil fuels. Under a globally co-ordinated climate policy and co-deployment of DACCS and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), the NDC-56 % scenario restricts global warming temperatures to 1.81–1.96 °C by 2100.