Mississippi River Basin Research Articles

Using low-coverage whole genome sequencing (genome skimming) to delineate three introgressed species of buffalofish (Ictiobus)

Consumption of buffalofish has been sporadically associated with Haff disease-like illnesses involving sudden onset muscle pain and weakness due to skeletal muscle rhabdomyolysis, but determination of precisely which species are associated with these illnesses has been impeded by a lack of species-specific DNA-based markers. Here, three closely related species of buffalofish native to the Mississippi River Basin (Ictiobus bubalus, Ictiobus cyprinellus and Ictiobus niger) that have previously proven genetically indistinguishable using both mitochondrial and nuclear single-locus sequencing were reliably discriminated using low-coverage whole genome sequencing (‘genome skimming’). Using 44 specimens representing the three species collected from the mid/upper (Missouri) and lower (Louisiana) regions of the species’ native ranges, the SISRS (Site Identification from Short Read Sequences) bioinformatics pipeline was adapted to (1) identify over 620Mbp of putatively homologous nuclear sequence data and (2) isolate over 140,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that supported accurate species delimitation, all without the use of a reference genome or annotation data. These sites were used to classify Ictiobus spp. samples with genome-skim data, along with a larger set (n = 67) where ultraconserved elements (UCEs) were sequenced. Analyses of whole mitochondrial data revealed more limited signal. Nearly all samples matched their purported species based on morphologic identification, but two Missouri samples morphologically identified as I. niger grouped with samples of I. bubalus, albeit with significant enrichment of I. niger SNPs. To our knowledge this is the first report of a DNA-based tool to reliably discriminate these three morphologically distinct species.

Spatial Optimization of Conservation Practices for Sediment Load Reduction in Ungauged Agricultural Watersheds

Conservation practices (CPs) are used in agricultural watersheds to reduce soil erosion and improve water quality, leading to a sustainable management of natural resources. This is especially important as more pressure is applied on agricultural systems by a growing population and a changing climate. A challenge persists, however, in optimizing the implementation of these practices given their complex, non-linear, and location-dependent response. This study integrates watershed modeling using the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point-Source model and a GIS-based field scale localization and characterization of CPs. The investigated practices are associated with the implementation of riparian buffers, sediment basins, crop rotations, and the conservation reserve program. A total of 33 conservation scenarios were developed to quantify their impact on sediment erosion reduction. This approach was applied in an ungauged watershed as part of the Mississippi River Basin initiative aiming at reducing one of the largest aquatic dead zones in the globe. Simulation results indicate that the targeted approach has a significant impact on the overall watershed-scale sediment load reduction. Among the different evaluated practices, riparian buffers were the most efficient in sediment reduction. Moreover, the study provides a blueprint for similar investigations aiming at building decision-support systems and optimizing the placement of CPs in agricultural watersheds.

Contrasting Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamics Mediate Flood Hazard across the Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Mississippi River basin drains nearly one-half of the contiguous United States, and its rivers serve as economic corridors that facilitate trade and transportation. Flooding remains a perennial hazard on the major tributaries of the Mississippi River basin, and reducing the economic and humanitarian consequences of these events depends on improving their seasonal predictability. Here, we use climate reanalysis and river gauge data to document the evolution of floods on the Missouri and Ohio Rivers—the two largest tributaries of the Mississippi River—and how they are influenced by major modes of climate variability centered in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. We show that the largest floods on these tributaries are preceded by the advection and convergence of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico following distinct atmospheric mechanisms, where Missouri River floods are associated with heavy spring and summer precipitation events delivered by the Great Plains low-level jet, whereas Ohio River floods are associated with frontal precipitation events in winter when the North Atlantic subtropical high is anomalously strong. Further, we demonstrate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can serve as a precursor for floods on these rivers by mediating antecedent soil moisture, with Missouri River floods often preceded by a warm eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Ohio River floods often preceded by a cool eastern tropical Pacific (La Niña) in the months leading up peak discharge. We also use recent floods in 2019 and 2021 to demonstrate how linking flood hazard to sea surface temperature anomalies holds potential to improve seasonal predictability of hydrologic extremes on these rivers.

Robust Optimization for Sequential Investment Problems: An Application to Climate Adaptation in the Mississippi River Basin

Robust Optimization for Sequential Investment Problems: An Application to Climate Adaptation in the Mississippi River Basin

Policy process and problem framing for state Nutrient Reduction Strategies in the US Upper Mississippi River Basin

To address the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, US Mississippi River Basin (MRB) states have developed Nutrient Reduction Strategies (NRSs) following a framework outlined by a US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) memo in 2011. In this study, we documented the process of NRS formulation and implementation by states based on qualitative interviews with 34 policy actors involved with NRS development in seven Upper MRB states a decade after the NRS framework was introduced. Our objectives were to (1) describe and compare stakeholder perceptions of each state’s NRS policy stages; (2) identify common challenges, accomplishments, and innovations resulting from the NRSs; and (3) explore the role of the 2011 USEPA memo as a catalyst for nutrient reduction action. We found that the USEPA policy memo was generally acknowledged as a catalyst for initial planning, but most interviewees framed the policy problem primarily around concern for local waterways compared to the Gulf of Mexico as a motivation for sustained policy development and implementation. Multistakeholder forums were a commonly cited success of the NRS development processes. Implementation challenges included the voluntary nature of most options to address nonpoint source pollution and the scale of practice implementation needed to achieve goals. There were differences both within and among states with respect to the importance and effectiveness of one USEPA framework element—establishing numeric nutrient criteria.

New records of Spotted Bass, Micropterus punctulatus, within the Mississippi River Basin, Illinois.

Spotted Bass Micropterus punctulatus, like many sport fishes, have experienced range expansion through intentional introductions (i.e., legal stocking and illegal transfers) and migration across the United States. In Illinois, USA, native populations of Spotted Bass occur along the eastern and southern border of the state. We report new records of Spotted Bass in their non-native range of the Illinois Waterway and the Illinois portion of the Upper Mississippi River in addition to collections in their native range in the Illinois sections of the Ohio and Wabash rivers to better understand their current distribution. Continuous, collaborative efforts to track the distribution and expansion of non-native fishes are important for maintaining and establishing native and non-native fisheries management objectives and education, as non-native fishes can influence native species population distribution and dynamics.

Review and Comparative Assessment of Biacetabulum macrocephalum McCrae, 1962 (Cestoda: Caryophyllidae) from Catostomus commersoni (Lacépède) in Wisconsin, USA

Specimens of Biacetabulum macrocephalum McCrae, 1962 (Cestoda: Caryophyllidae) were first described from the white sucker, Catostomus commersoni (Lacépède) in Colorado. The white sucker appears to be its major host species in a few other states often in the Mississippi River basin. We have collected and examined this uncommon cestode, also from C. commersoni in Tichigan Lake, a tributary of the Mississippi River and from the Root River in SE Wisconsin. We update our first and only 1986 account of our Wisconsin population, with new observations and measurements, and compare with those in the original and other descriptions. The morphology of B. macrocephalum is revisited using light microscopy revealing new features. Emphasis is placed on the morphological variability of its scolex and reproductive structures especially its ovarian arms and pre- and post-ovarian vitellaria. Measurements of 10 specimens from the Root River provided an opportunity to review the taxonomy and description of the species, distinguish locality differences, and correct and update other statements and concepts by other observers. The disconnected distribution of worms from the same host species in separate waters of various states is described.

Retrieving time series of river water extent from global inland water data sets

The accurate monitoring of the surface water storage as an essential component of the global water cycle requires a realistic representation of river networks and channel characteristics. Since such a representation has not been available for many rivers and is becoming less available even for many gauged rivers, crucial questions about the spatio-temporal dynamics of freshwater in river networks cannot be answered properly.The global coverage and fine temporal resolution of satellite imagery provide the opportunity to obtain time series of surface water extent at the global scale for almost all rivers. However, despite recent advances in satellite imaging sensors, water extraction algorithms, and big data processing capabilities, none of the available global water extent data sets can meet the necessary requirements in terms of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolutions. Due to the inherent complexity of monitoring the river surface extent, efforts have been limited to the development of global river extent data sets with a limited number of temporal layers usually obtained from long-term averaged satellite imagery.In this study, we propose a region-based image restoration algorithm to obtain the river surface extent from a pre-existing global inland water data set by incorporating temporal and spatial constraints between pixel labels. We employ our algorithm on the Monthly Water History maps of the Global Surface Water data set (Pekel et al., 2016). We validate the proposed method on 98 river reaches that their average width ranges from approximately 36m to 3400m with in situ discharge measurements in the Mississippi, Amazon, Niger and Po river basins. The obtained river width time series exhibit a strong monotonic relationship with discharge measurements as the Spearman correlation coefficients are predominantly larger than 0.70 (on average 0.74 for Mississippi, 0.84 for Amazon, 0.86 for Niger and 0.77 for Po rivers). Such a performance confirms that the proposed method can facilitate the acquisition of a global dynamic river extent data set, which plays a key role in better understanding the distribution and availability of freshwater across continents.

Climate change projections of continental-scale streamflow across the Mississippi River Basin

A large body of scientific research has demonstrated a changing climate, which affects river flow regimes and extreme flood frequencies and magnitudes. The magnitude and frequency of extreme events are of critical importance in the evaluation of river systems to inform flood risk reduction under current and future conditions. The global climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets were used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to produce a runoff dataset, implementing a Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) approach. The resulting runoff was then used as input to the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model to simulate daily flows within all 1.2 million Mississippi River Basin river reaches for years 1950 through 2099. This research effort analyzed the performance of the models for the historical time period, comparing with the observations at 64 gage locations for 16 different climate models. A recurrence interval analysis was performed to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, 500-, and 1000-year events within both the historical and projected time periods, highlighting the relative changes predicted into the future. Anticipated seasonal changes are demonstrated by comparing monthly average streamflows for three different time periods (1951–2005, 2006–2049, and 2050–2099). Results indicate that the hydrologic conditions of the Lower Mississippi River are not stationary. Based on all 16 models considered in this study, the median of the model projections shows an 8% increase in the 100-year return period discharge at Vicksburg, Mississippi, into the future time period, although the full range of 16 models varies widely from − 11 to + 85% change in the 100-year discharge in the future.

Long-term trends of streamflow, sediment load and nutrient fluxes from the Mississippi River Basin: Impacts of climate change and human activities

Under the influences of global climate change and intense human activities, the hydrological and biogeochemical processes have been undergoing profound changes in most of the world's watersheds. However, the long-term changes in streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient fluxes, and quantitative attribution of these changes from a basin-wide perspective are incompletely understood. Here we examined the trends of streamflow, sediment load, and total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) and its four major tributary basins during the 1930s-2010s, and major causes for streamflow, sediment load and nutrient fluxes changes were quantified. The streamflow increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the entire basin except for the Arkansas River Basin, while the sediment load significantly decreased except in the Arkansas River Basin and Upper MRB. Generally, the TN flux reduced except for an increasing trend in the Upper MRB. While the TP flux rose except for a decrease in the Ohio River Basin, and the DIC flux increased significantly. The strength of the relationship between nutrient flux and streamflow/sediment load showed four binary patterns, and in general the nutrient fluxes were more strongly correlated with streamflow compared to sediment load. Over the past 80 years, the increasing precipitation in the MRB has made the most contribution (67 % on average) to the river discharge increase, whereas human activities contribute the most (>58 %) to the changes in the sediment load and nutrient fluxes. The sediment yield coefficient decreased linearly with the increasing impermeable area proportion, river revetment length, and dam storage capacity (p < 0.05) in the MRB. The decrease in TN flux probably resulted from sedimentation and denitrification in reservoirs and wetlands, and increases in farm fertilizer and manure use were the two main factors contributing to the increased TP flux. In addition, the agricultural practices, increased precipitation, and raised temperature jointly led to an increase in the DIC flux. This study provides quantitative results of water–sediment-nutrient variations in the entire watershed system, which facilitates development of watershed management strategies.

Drought-Induced Nitrogen and Phosphorus Carryover Nutrients in Corn/Soybean Rotations in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Droughts reduce crop yields, which translates to reduced nutrient uptake or removal from the soil. Under such conditions, residual plant nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) can be carried over for subsequent crops. We applied the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to simulate continuous corn (Zea mays L.)/soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) rotations on 3703 farm fields within the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) over a 47-year timescale: 1960 to 2006. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (PSI) to identify the drought years between 1960 to 2006, following which we evaluated potential drought-induced carryover N and P nutrients in corn/soybean rotations relative to near normal and very to extremely wet years. Overall, drought reduced N uptake, total N losses, N mineralization and N fixation, the main driver of the soybean carryover N. Given the high cost of fertilizers and concerns over nutrient loss impacts on offsite water quality, farmers are compelled to account for every plant nutrient that is already in the soil. Information from this study could be applied to develop optimal N and P recommendations after droughts, while identification of region-wide potential reductions in N and P applications has implications for conservation efforts aimed at minimizing environmental loading and associated water quality concerns.

Bioavailability of dissolved organic matter varies with anthropogenic landcover in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Anthropogenic conversion of forests and wetlands to agricultural and urban landcovers impacts dissolved organic matter (DOM) within streams draining these catchments. Research on how landcover conversion impacts DOM molecular level composition and bioavailability, however, is lacking. In the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), water from low-order streams and rivers draining one of three dominant landcovers (forest, agriculture, urban) was incubated for 28 days to determine bioavailable DOC (BDOC) concentrations and changes in DOM composition. The BDOC concentration averaged 0.49 ± 0.30 mg L−1 across all samples and was significantly higher in streams draining urban catchments (0.72 ± 0.34 mg L−1) compared to streams draining agricultural (0.28 ± 0.15 mg L−1) and forested (0.47 ± 0.17 mg L−1) catchments. Percent BDOC was significantly greater in urban (10% ± 4.4%) streams compared to forested streams (5.6% ± 3.2%), corresponding with greater relative abundances of aliphatic and N-containing aliphatic compounds in urban streams. Aliphatic compound relative abundance decreased across all landcovers during the bioincubation (average -4.1% ± 10%), whereas polyphenolics and condensed aromatics increased in relative abundance across all landcovers (average of +1.4% ± 5.9% and +1.8% ± 10%, respectively). Overall, the conversion of forested to urban landcover had a larger impact on stream DOM bioavailability in the UMRB compared to conversion to agricultural landcover. Future research examining the impacts of anthropogenic landcover conversion on stream DOM composition and bioavailability needs to be expanded to a range of spatial scales and to different ecotones, especially with continued landcover alterations.

Pliocene Drainage in Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario, Canada

This study presents the restored Pliocene topography along northerly trending profiles in Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. A top-of-bedrock slope profile of the Red River/Lake Winnipeg/Nelson River and 19 south-trending landscape topographic and top-of-bedrock slope profiles of the region were made from published elevation data. These profiles reveal a clear change in slope and slope direction (flexure) in the top-of-bedrock elevation. The flexure axis trends southeasterly across Manitoba into northwestern Ontario. The profiles were then tilted southerly by lifting the profiles along the southern margin of Hudson Bay to restore remaining glacial isostatic rebound. When imposing a minimum 80 m of isostatic rebound to the Nelson River/Lake Winnipeg/Red River profile, the northern portion of the profile slopes north but the southern portion of the profile slopes south at 0.01%. When imposing a minimum 60 m of isostatic rebound to all 19 top-of-bedrock profiles, the bedrock slopes north to Hudson Bay northeast of the flexure; however, southwest of the flexure, the southern portions of the 19 top-of-bedrock profiles slope south. We interpret the flexure axis to have been the northern divide of the Pliocene Mississippi River basin in Manitoba and northwestern Ontario and the divide that will lie between the north-flowing Nelson River and south-flowing Red River with future glacial isostatic adjustment.

Intercomparison of global ERA reanalysis products for streamflow simulations at the high-resolution continental scale

Watershed-scale streamflow routing models play a key role in real-time flood forecasting, flood risk evaluation, and water resource management, but the accuracy of modeled streamflow depends on both the spatial resolution and the accuracy of the runoff data used as the model forcing. The production of new, higher-resolution runoff datasets therefore motivates an evaluation of the relative improvement in streamflow model performance. This study evaluates streamflow routing output for the Mississippi River Basin, with the simulations driven by three different runoff products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The first runoff product is the ERA-Interim surface and subsurface runoff dataset (ERAI), which was projected to a grid with a resolution of ∼39 km at the equator. Second, this study considers the ERA5 reanalysis dataset (ERA5-25km) placed on a quarter degree grid (∼25 km resolution at the equator). The simulations which generated ERA5-25km included land–atmosphere coupling and land data assimilation. The third runoff product is the ERA5-Land dataset (ERA5L-9km), which was produced in an offline simulation at 9-km resolution without land–atmosphere coupling or land data assimilation, forced by the coarser ERA5 meteorological input. For each runoff input, streamflow was simulated by applying the Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) model to the vectorized NHDPlus stream network, which comprised 1.2 million reaches within the study area.Comparison of modeled and measured daily and monthly mean discharge from 60 USGS gages reveals several broad trends. Streamflow simulated using the ERAI runoff tends to generate an earlier peak monthly discharge, while peak discharge from the ERA5L-9km runoff systematically exceeds peak discharge from the ERA5-25km runoff. Basin-aggregated model performance varies by metric, with discharge simulated using the ERA5-25km runoff having the smallest median root-mean-square error even as the discharge modeled using ERA5L-9km runoff has the smallest median Kling-Gupta efficiency. Model performance also varies spatially, with all three simulations exhibiting the least accurate results in the western region of the Mississippi River Basin, and by drainage area, with more accurate results generally obtained for larger drainages. These results suggest that streamflow model accuracy will benefit from the use of either ERA5-25km or ERA5L-9km runoff in place of ERAI. However, the selection of ERA5-25km versus ERA5L-9km depends on regional considerationsas well as which components of model performance are most critical to the user.

Past anthropogenic activities offset dissolved inorganic phosphorus retention in the Mississippi River basin

The rapid acceleration of anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loadings to watersheds has fuelled massive freshwater and coastal eutrophication and completely changed the global P cycle. Within watersheds, emitted P is transported downstream towards estuaries. Reservoirs can retain a significant proportion of this P. In the long term, this accumulated P can however be re-mobilized, a process lacking in current global P budgets. Here, we include P cycling in a coupled integrated assessment-hydrology-biogeochemistry framework with 0.5 by 0.5-degree spatial resolution and an annual time resolution, and apply it to the Mississippi River basin (MRB). We show that, while reservoirs have aided in the net retention of P, they serve as dissolved inorganic P (DIP) sources due to the transformation of legacy P in sediments. The increasing DIP sourcing in the MRB has been offsetting P retention in streams, especially towards the end of the twentieth century. Due to its bioavailability, DIP is the most likely form to trigger eutrophication. Although P inputs into the MRB have decreased since the 1970s, legacy effects are delaying positive outcomes of remediation measures.

Impacts of different types of El Niño events on water quality over the Corn Belt, United States

Abstract. The United States Corn Belt region, which primarily includes two large basins, namely, the Ohio–Tennessee River basin (OTRB) and the Upper Mississippi River basin (UMRB), is responsible for the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. Climate patterns such as El Niño can affect the runoff and thus the water quality over the Corn Belt. In this study, the impacts of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events on water quality over the Corn Belt region were analyzed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. Our results indicated that, at the outlets, annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads decreased by 13.1 % and 14.0 % at OTRB and 18.5 % and 19.8 % at UMRB, respectively, during the EP El Niño years, whereas during the CP El Niño years, they increased by 3.3 % and 4.6 % at OTRB and 5.7 % and 4.4 % at UMRB, respectively. On the subbasin scales, more subbasins showed negative (positive) anomalies of TN and TP during EP (CP) El Niño. A seasonal study confirmed that water quality anomalies showed the opposite patterns during EP and CP El Niño years. At the outlet of OTRB, seasonal anomalies in nutrients matched the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, illustrating the importance of climate variables associated with the two types of El Niño events on water quality in the region. At the UMRB, TN and TP were also influenced by agricultural activities within the region, and their anomalies became greater in the growing seasons during both EP and CP El Niño years. A quantitative analysis of precipitation, temperature, and their effects on nutrients suggested that precipitation played a more important role than temperature did in altering the water quality in the Corn Belt region during both types of El Niño years. We also found specific watersheds (located in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana) that faced the greatest increases in TN and TP loads and were affected by both the precipitation and agricultural activities during the CP El Niño years. The information generated from this study may help proper decision-making for water environment protection over the Corn Belt.

Winter runoff events pose an unquantified continental-scale risk of high wintertime nutrient export

Winters in snow-covered regions have warmed, likely shifting the timing and magnitude of nutrient export, leading to unquantified changes in water quality. Intermittent, seasonal, and permanent snow covers more than half of the global land surface. Warming has reduced the cold conditions that limit winter runoff and nutrient transport, while cold season snowmelt, the amount of winter precipitation falling as rain, and rain-on-snow have increased. We used existing geospatial datasets (rain-on-snow frequency overlain on nitrogen and phosphorous inventories) to identify areas of the contiguous United States (US) where water quality could be threatened by this change. Next, to illustrate the potential export impacts of these events, we examined flow and turbidity data from a large regional rain-on-snow event in the United States’ largest river basin, the Mississippi River Basin. We show that rain-on-snow, a major flood-generating mechanism for large areas of the globe (Berghuijs et al 2019 Water Resour. Res. 55 4582–93; Berghuijs et al 2016 Geophys. Res. Lett. 43 4382–90), affects 53% of the contiguous US and puts 50% of US nitrogen and phosphorus pools (43% of the contiguous US) at risk of export to groundwater and surface water. Further, the 2019 rain-on-snow event in the Mississippi River Basin demonstrates that these events could have large, cascading impacts on winter nutrient transport. We suggest that the assumption of low wintertime discharge and nutrient transport in historically snow-covered regions no longer holds. Critically, however, we lack sufficient data to accurately measure and predict these episodic and potentially large wintertime nutrient export events at regional to continental scales.

Characterizing Groundwater Chemistry and Recharge in the Critical Zone of an Agricultural Claypan Watershed

AbstractSoils with low permeability horizons (e.g., claypans) are vulnerable to loss of nutrients through surface runoff along with preferential flow paths through the restrictive horizon to deeper aquifers. Partitioning between these hydrologic pathways is important to determine transport processes and develop strategies that mitigate stream contamination. Our objective was to investigate controls on groundwater chemistry and recharge pathways using natural geochemical tracers in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed in Missouri, U.S. Groundwater samples were collected during 2011–2017 from 32 piezometers ranging from 0.13 to 16 m deep along with stream water and precipitation. Diagnostic tools of mixing models indicated that chemistry of perched water directly above the claypan and shallow groundwater immediately below was controlled primarily by chemical equilibrium. Five solutes behaved conservatively in most deep piezometers (&gt;5 m), reflecting mixing of two end members and the lack of significant denitrification processes. End member mixing analysis showed that the deeper groundwater originated primarily from groundwater at similar depths, often upslope or from strata directly above, with small contributions from perched water, highlighting the importance of both horizontal and vertical preferential recharge pathways. Vertical pathways are likely dictated by soil heterogeneity throughout the critical zone and do not occur synchronously with precipitation events or simultaneously over all piezometer locations. The complex recharge pathways provide stochastic conduits for nitrate transport to deeper aquifers where legacy stores accumulate, presenting a significant challenge for water quality management in watersheds with restrictive soil horizons and spatially and temporally heterogeneous preferential flow pathways, including the Mississippi River Basin.

Characterization of Multi‐Scale Fluvial Suspended Sediment Transport Dynamics Across the United States Using Turbidity and Dynamic Regression

AbstractThis study explores multi‐scale variability in the relationship between turbidity (Tn) and flow (Q) in 162 watersheds across the contiguous United States. Sites are selected where Tn acts as a good surrogate for suspended sediment concentration. We use dynamic linear models (DLMs) to infer time‐varying parameters of Tn‐Q rating curves at each site, and calibrate a hyper‐parameter of the DLM model () to quantify the degree of dynamicity in the rating curve relationship. The DLM can capture dynamics in the Tn‐Q relationship at the resolution of the data (daily in this study), enabling an analysis of the dynamics across time scales. Regional multivariate regressions are used to identify physiographic features that relate to the magnitude of and spectral signatures in the DLM parameters across sites. Results show that watersheds in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest tend to exhibit more variable Tn‐Q relationships, while these relationships are more stable in watersheds in the humid east and Lower Mississippi River basin. Stream network complexity, soil composition, perennial snow coverage, saturation‐excess overland flow, and modifications to the stream network are associated with the dynamicity in the Tn‐Q relationship. DLM parameters exhibit cyclic behavior at sub‐monthly, sub‐annual, and annual time scales at sites across the country, with annual cycling associated with basin features that reflect watershed sediment availability and the erosive power of rivers. Overall, our analysis highlights significant multi‐scale variability in Tn‐Q relationships across the nation, with important implications for how sediment dynamics should be measured and managed at the watershed‐scale.

Establishment of invasive Black Carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) in the Mississippi River basin: identifying sources and year classes contributing to recruitment

Black Carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) was imported to the USA to control aquaculture pond snails. This species has escaped captivity and occurs in parts of the Mississippi River, several tributaries, and floodplain lakes, which is concerning due to potential competition with native fishes and predation on native mussels, many of which are imperiled. However, Black Carp captures have primarily been incidental by commercial fishers, and evidence of reproduction in the wild is limited. The objectives of this study were to assess relative abundance of aquaculture-origin and wild Black Carp using ploidy and otolith stable isotope analysis, identify spatial extent of natural reproduction using otolith microchemistry, assess age distributions of wild and aquaculture-source Black Carp to infer years in which natural reproduction occurred and timing of aquaculture escapement or introductions, and estimate size and age at maturation to assess whether recruitment to adulthood has occurred. Results revealed that Black Carp are established in parts of the Mississippi River basin based on findings that: (1) non-captive Black Carp primarily consist of fertile, naturally-reproduced fish, (2) reproduction has occurred in several rivers, (3) multiple year classes of wild fish are present, and (4) wild fish have recruited to adulthood. Multiple introductions or escapements of aquaculture-source fish into the wild, including both fertile and functionally sterile individuals, were also inferred. Individual growth appears to be rapid, although considerable variation was observed among fish. Additional study is suggested to refine understanding of where and when Black Carp reproduction is occurring in the Mississippi River basin.