Missile Threat Research Articles

Potential preemptive countering of antiaircraft missile threats

Potential preemptive countering of antiaircraft missile threats

Strategic Uncertainty and Missile Defence: Revisiting the 1999 National Intelligence Estimate

Strategic uncertainty remains a significant challenge for defence planners and national leaders responsible for developing and acquiring future military capabilities. Concerns in the United States over missile proliferation during the 1990s were embodied in the 1999 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which predicted the emergence of a long-range ballistic missile threat by 2015. Comparing the NIEs predictions with the actual evolution of the threat reveals not only an overly pessimistic evaluation but also politicization of the intelligence assessment. At the time of its release, the report added to a growing sense of vulnerability and further encouraged policy-makers to make suboptimal missile defence acquisition decisions. In particular, the worst-case scenario thinking exemplified by the 1999 NIE contributed to an unnecessarily rushed testing programme, the premature deployment of homeland missile defence and an oversized system in Europe. Although missile defence may have strategic value, the rush to deploy has resulted in a costly and less effective military capability due to unfounded fears of strategic surprise and entrenched notions of the ballistic missile threat. Strategic uncertainty will always be a challenge, but focusing solely on developing capabilities with less regard to the actual threat environment is a recipe for costly and ineffective weapons systems.

Operation Protective Edge - A Unique Challenge for a Civilian EMS Agency.

During July through August 2014, Operation Protective Edge, a military conflict between Israel and the Hamas regime in Gaza, dramatically affected both populations. Magen David Adom (MDA), the Israeli national Emergency Medical Service (EMS) and a member of the Red Cross, faced a unique challenge during the conflict: to continue providing crucial service to the entire civilian population of Israel, which was under constant missile threat. This challenge included not only providing immediate care for routine EMS calls under missile threat, but also preparing and delivering immediate care to civilians injured in attacks on major cities, as well as small communities, in Israel. This task is a challenge for a civilian EMS agency that normally operates in a non-military environment, yet, in an instant, must enhance its capability to respond to a considerable threat to its population. During Operation Protective Edge, MDA provided care for 842 wounded civilians and utilized a significant amount of its resources. Providing EMS services for a civilian population in a mixed civilian/military scenario is a challenging task on a national level for an EMS system, especially when the threat lasts for weeks. This report describes MDA's preparedness and operations during Operation Protective Edge, and the unique EMS challenges and dilemmas the agency faced.

Guidance scheme for operating multiple ship defense missiles with dual seekers

This paper proposes a guidance scheme to operate ship defense missiles using dual seekers—radio frequency and strapdown imaging infrared seekers—against the threat of antiship missiles. Key challenges associated with considered operational concept such as the multipath error of an radio frequency seeker, the narrow field of view of an strapdown imaging infrared seeker, and the interference between the target and defense missiles are identified. A guidance scheme that can address these challenges is proposed by combining an optimal guidance law for the midcourse phase and the proportional navigation guidance for the terminal phase. A relationship among interceptor/target velocity, minimum line-of-sight angle for the radio frequency seeker, and the field of view of the strapdown imaging infrared seeker for a successful intercept is analytically derived and graphically presented. Numerical simulations for the engagements between ship defense missiles and an antiship missile demonstrate the validity of the proposed guidance scheme.

The fight against terrorism

Cooperation between NATO and the UN last few years is quite extended. NATO and the UN expand their cooperation in the fight against modern terrorism at all levels that act or institutional field, conceptually and politically. Cooperation and consultation between these organizations not only apply to dealing with crisis situations, but their collaboration extends to other issues such as civil-military cooperation, the fight against human trafficking, the fight against terrorism, and more. The most important mission of NATO today is the mission in Afghanistan, was established with a mandate from the UN in 2001 and is under the leadership of NATO in August 2003, under the name of ISAF - International Security Assistance Force. Challenges that threaten the interests of the Euro-Atlantic alliance are: terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, the threat of ballistic missiles, conventional armed forces, cyber attacks, energy security and climate change.

Canada in the Great Power Game, by Gwynne Dyer

Gwynne Dyer Canada in the Power Toronto: Random House Canada, 2014. 423 pp., $34.95 (cloth) ISBN: 978-0-307-36168-4For the past three decades Gwynne Dyer has been an incisive and often contrarian writer on international security affairs. Canada and the Power continues this tradition. It reads like a series of lectures delivered to a general audience interested in the evolution of the international system, and Canada's place in it, through the great conflicts of the twentieth century. The result is informative and accessible, if somewhat incomplete.Dyer mixes history-chronologically tracing Canada's participation in wars and the often tense periods of peace in between-with an analysis of political decision making and the public's evolving opinion of Canada's overseas engagements. Interspersed with this are quotations from the soldiers, diplomats, and statespeople who participated in and shaped Canada's transition from colonial dependence to what could be described as pseudo-independence from the whims and priorities of larger nations. Between the main chapters Dyer takes the reader on several counterfactual journeys, or excursions, in which he permits himself to ask and answer what might have happened had Canada not gone to war in 1914.Dyer's examination of the wars of the first half of the twentieth century reveals that Canada played the great game of nations because a healthy plurality of voters and the political class wished it so. The author seems uncomfortable with this, emphasizing the political headaches it caused for successive prime ministers who struggled to reconcile their own (and English Canada's) affinity for Britain with the cause of national unity. They were aware of the emergence of national interests that might be distinct from those of the imperial overlord but, recognizing that the times were critical, knew that Canada could not stand aloof-even at the price of stoking nationalism in Quebec or the resentment of prairie farmers. But just what the Great Power Game is (or was) is only vaguely defined, leaving the reader to wonder what motivates great-power behaviour, and how smaller states such as Canada could play the game to their own advantage.Dyer's suggestion that the First World War had no moral content (175) will strike some readers as contentious, but it deserves a fair hearing as we mark the centenary of that conflagration. His tale of how Canadian policymakers passed up opportunities to change the rules of the great game for the better will feel like a bucket of cold water. Whereas Canadians are apt to think of themselves as longtime supporters of collective security (i.e., the common duty of all nations to oppose, and if necessary reverse, naked aggression), Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King was clearly no fan of the League of Nations. Like his American contemporaries he did not appreciate the globalizing nature of security in the wake of the War.The game continued after 1945 as the great powers forged a more durable peace through the United Nations, of which Dyer writes approvingly, if not critically. He is at his provocative best when he tackles the excesses of the nuclear arms race and the fateful decision to acquire the BOMARC nuclear-tipped missile at a time when the manned bomber was being eclipsed by the threat of intercontinental ballistic missiles. …

Imperialist vs Rogue. Japan, North Korea and the Colonial Issue since 1945

The present paper is an attempt on grasping with the Japanese colonization in Korea through two main issues: the colonial past as an important stake in the Japan-North Korea negotiations since 1945, and the status of the Japanese colonization among the Japanese public debate.In 1991, during the negotiations aiming at the normalization between Japan and North Korea, « settling the past » constituted a main issue before reaching to the consensus of the P’yŏngyang Declaration, the 17th of September 2002. The Declaration mentions apologies for the colonial domination and preconizes a strong « economical cooperation », meaning actually the payment of indemnities to North Korea, and re-enacting the same type of resolution decided toward South Korea some 35 five years ago.In Japan, the persistence of regional security issues with North Korea (the threat of ballistic and nuclear missiles, repeated abductions of Japanese citizens) and the well mediatized idea of North Korea as a « rogue state » tends to obliterate, in the public Japanese mind, the colonial past and the former Japanese domination in Korea. Although very well documented et studied in Japan among scholars, the colonial domination, thus, constituted a weapon of choice in the self-legitimization rhetoric of the P’yŏngyang regime and Kim Il-sŭng, since its very foundation.

Conditional Deterrence and Missile Defense

The traditional view of ballistic missile defense is that defensive weapons are destabilizing. This article explains why the more broadly and traditionally accepted classical approach to deterrence is flawed and demonstrates the greater explanatory power and implications of conditional deterrence based on power parity theory. Given the implications that can be drawn from conditional deterrence, this article demonstrates that limited efforts at developing and deploying missile defenses enhance deterrence and reduce the ballistic missile threat in the short term and may also discourage the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

흡수 마코프체인을 활용한 함정 근접무기체계 효과성 분석

Since the technology of anti-ship missiles has advanced rapidly, defending battleships from the threat of anti-ship missiles is a crucial factor for the survival of warships. In this paper, we analyze the performance of an anti-ship missile defense system whose name is Close-In-Weapon-System. We show the survival probability of a warship equipped with the Close-In-Weapon-System as the number of anti-ship missiles attacking the warship varies. Because of the complex and dynamic operational characteristics surrounding the Close-In-Weapon-System such as speed of missiles, different range of an individual weapon in the weapon system, and the continuous change of the kill probability of the missiles corresponding to the distance of missiles from ships, few work has been done for the performance of Close-In-Weapon-System. We present a model to incorporate all the dynamic characteristics of the system using absorbing Markov Chain. With our results, we expect commanders of warships equipped with Close-In-Weapon-System to be provided with more helpful information on how to deal with the anti-ship missiles.

A Fast Threat Assessment Model of Aerial Targets for Submarine

According to the actual operation type of submarine against aerial targets, this paper proposes a fast dynamic multi factor weighted threat assessment method, establishes the threat assessment factor which has the strongest influence and membership function. The multi factor assessment matrix is built on the base of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the factor weight coefficient is obtained and then the model might judge the threat level of the target. The method is fast and practical, it will provide a reference for establishment of submarine to air missile threat assessment.

United States - Japan Cooperation in Ballistic Missile Defense Development: Capabilities in Facing the Threat of Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction

United States - Japan Cooperation in Ballistic Missile Defense Development: Capabilities in Facing the Threat of Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Arguments that count: physics, computing, and missile defense, 1949-2012

In a rapidly changing world, we rely upon experts to assess the promise and risks of new technology. But how do these experts make sense of a highly uncertain future? In Arguments that Count, Rebecca Slayton offers an important new perspective. Drawing on new historical documents and interviews as well as perspectives in science and technology studies, she provides an original account of how scientists came to terms with the unprecedented threat of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). She compares how two different professional communities -- physicists and computer scientists -- constructed arguments about the risks of missile defense, and how these arguments changed over time. Slayton shows that our understanding of technological risks is shaped by disciplinary repertoires -- the codified knowledge and mathematical rules that experts use to frame new challenges. And, significantly, a new repertoire can bring long-neglected risks into clear view.In the 1950s, scientists recognized that high-speed computers would be needed to cope with the unprecedented speed of ICBMs. But the nation's elite science advisors had no way to analyze the risks of computers so used physics to assess what they could: radar and missile performance. Only decades later, after establishing computing as a science, were advisors able to analyze authoritatively the risks associated with complex software -- most notably, the risk of a catastrophic failure. As we continue to confront new threats, including that of cyber attack, Slayton offers valuable insight into how different kinds of expertise can limit or expand our capacity to address novel technological risks.

The Threat from European Missile Defence System to Russian National Security

The article analyses the political and military aspects of progress in the dialogue between Russia and the U.S./NATO on cooperation in missile defense; investigates the past experiences and current state of cooperation between Russia and the Alliance on missile defense issues; examines the technical features of American missile defence systems today; finds a solution to question whether or not the European Missile Defence Program actually threatens Russia's nuclear deterrent and strategic stability in general; identifies both potential benefits and possible losses for Russia stemming from the development of cooperation with the United States and NATO in countering ballistic missile threats, or from refusal to have such cooperation. Evidently, the initiative of creation of a missile defense in Europe surely belongs to the USA. Washington has enormous technological, financial, economic, military and institutional capabilities in the field of a missile defense, exceeding by far other NATO member-states. In February 2010, the President of the United States B. Obama adopted a project "European Phased Adaptive Approach" (EPAA) as an alternative to G. Bush's global strategic missile defense plan. The first two stages of the Phased Adaptive Approach are focused on creating a system capable of intercepting small, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The possibility of intercepting long-range missiles is postponed to the third (2018) and forth phases (2020). Moscow finds especially troublesome the third and the fourth phases of Washington's project of creating a European segment of the global antiballistic missile system, considering prospective capabilities of the U.S. interceptor missiles 61 and the envisioned areas of their deployment. The U.S. counter-evidence is that phase four interceptors do not exist yet. Russia insists on getting the political and legal guarantees from the U.S. and NATO that their missile defense systems will not slash the efficiency of Russian nuclear deterrence forces.

Protiraketová obrana Japonska a její implikace

The main goal of the presented article is to evaluate the impact of Japanese missile defence development on the regional strategic stability in Northeast Asia. The goal is reached through an analysis of interaction between missile defence and roles of ballistic missiles in Chinese and North Korean strategies towards Japan, while also taking into account the alternative policies which Japan might have used in response to the ballistic missile threat. According to the analysis, the development of the Japanese missile defence does not degrade strategic stability in the discussed region.

Infrared Background and Missiles Signature Survey

The proliferation of the missile threats in the existing threat scenario for airborne platform is a serious point of consideration for any mission planning. Missile warning system is an electronic warfare support system which gives warning to the pilot when a missile is detected in the scenario. The airborne platform has to be installed with missile warning sensors to give a spherical coverage, so that the sensors can detect the IR intensity variation in the ground scenario. This IR intensity variation has to be further analysed to differentiate the raising missile intensity from the varying background clutter. In order to differentiate the threat from the background clutter, the system should have sufficient background data set for online comparison thereby having less false alarm rate. The efficiency and performance of any missile warning system is validated with respect to its probability of declaration against the false alarm rate. Hence, to realize an efficient functioning of missile warning system, building IR background data base and missile signature database are the primary task. This paper details the methodology to be adapted for the building of tactical missile IR signatures and background data. Defence Science Journal, 2013, 63(6), pp.611 -615 , DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.63.5762

Two Koreas, war and health

Despite news in the morning of missile attack threats by North Korea and associated countermeasures by South Korea, like most South Koreans I spend a peaceful weekend playing with my kids at a playground. I hear from my father, who recently moved from the southernmost island to Seoul, that he was treated for lunch by his elderly neighbours seeking information about the island in case of evacuation. Although living on the Korean peninsula has been implied to be very dangerous in the international media, the South Korean people have been rather calm, as they have already spent their lifetime under such sustained tensions and war threats. While assuming that verbal provocations by North Korea may not have any significant health impacts, as an epidemiology and public health researcher I reflect on how the Korean War (1950–53) and subsequent political situation have affected the health of the two Koreas, what lessons there would be for international research communities from comparison studies of the two Koreas, and what should be the appropriate response of public health professionals to a potential war.

The Research of Gray Algorithm and Information Entropy in Route Planning Optimization

In order to solve the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) 3-d track planning problems, according to UAV flight are subject to different threats, UAV flight track was established optimal decision-making system, and the fuel consumption, radar threats, missile threats, anti-aircraft threats and atmosphere threats are determined as the evaluation index of objective function, and optimal mathematical model of UAV flight track is constructed. Experience evaluation method is often used to Weight calculation, but there is certain subjectivity .Therefore information entropy method is adopted to determine the Weights by the set of track plans. Grey incidence analysis method is applied to deal with the gray correlation information between the various indicators and to solve the model. Finally, the optimal model is used to scheme selection for flight track planning problem with four threat radar points, five missile threat points, six artillery threat points and four climate threat points to the threat point of flight track planning scheme options. And get the flight track with the best overall performance and Minimum Comprehensive cost, the research provides a theoretical basis for further studying the three-dimensional UAV flight track optimization. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v10i8.1635 Full Text: PDF

Imperialist vs Rogue. Japan, North Korea and the Colonial Question since 1945

The present paper is an attempt on grasping with the Japanese colonization in Korea through two main issues: the colonial past as an important stake in the Japan-North Korea negotiations since 1945, and the status of the Japanese colonization among the Japanese public debate.In 1991, during the negotiations aiming at the normalization between Japan and North Korea, « settling the past » constituted a main issue before reaching to the consensus of the P’yŏngyang Declaration, the 17th of September 2002. The Declaration mentions apologies for the colonial domination and preconizes a strong “economical cooperation”, meaning actually the payment of indemnities to North Korea, and re-enacting the same type of resolution decided toward South Korea some 35 five years ago.In Japan, the persistence of regional security issues with North Korea (the threat of ballistic and nuclear missiles, repeated abductions of Japanese citizens) and the well mediatized idea of North Korea as a « rogue state » tends to obliterate, in the public Japanese mind, the colonial past and the former Japanese domination in Korea. Although very well documented et studied in Japan among scholars, the colonial domination, thus, constituted a weapon of choice in the self-legitimization rhetoric of the P’yŏngyang regime and Kim Il-sŭng, since its very foundation.

A tailored Top-Down Functional Analysis (TDFA) for AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense (ABMD)

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. A TDFA is often cited as a major analysis needed when developing a new system. However, designing new components for pre-existing U.S. Navy systems presents a unique challenge. This paper describes the application of a modified TDFA to an existing system with new capabilities and functionality. New technologies introduced in the ABMD Baseline 5.1 include the Standard Missile (SM)-3 Block (Blk) IIA, which will provide superior speed, range, and discrimination capabilities relative to earlier SM-3 missile variants. This will lead to better performance against existing threats as well as entirely new mission capabilities. However, the areas impacted by this technology comprise a small subset of the overall AEGIS Weapon System functionality. As a result, a hybrid methodology for the TDFA was developed collaboratively by industry and government teams to ensure that outputs fit into the systems engineering process and ultimately the display design process. The hybrid TDFA methodology was developed as a means to help identify the information considered necessary to support warfighter decision making during mission planning and the ability to achieve the mission goal of successful ballistic missile threat kills during mission execution. An example is provided that shows how the hybrid methodology has impacted the development of prototype displays to date. It is concluded that this hybrid TDFA approach has demonstrated utility in the development of lower level requirements for these displays and is recommended for use when the system is already well-known and only a portion of the system in design will be considered new or changed functionality.

Containing Iran's Missile Threat

The breathing space offered by a regional flight-test ban could facilitate Cooperation on missile defences and the building of greater trust and confidence Between Moscow and Washington.