Military Capabilities Research Articles

Strengthening ASEAN Food Security in Facing the Threat of Crisis in The Era of Globalization

Purpose: The paper is aim to analyze the cooperation among ASEAN countries in terms of information exchange, agricultural technology, and strategies to deal with food crises is essential. This paper also discusses efforts to strengthen ASEAN food security in the face of the threat of a global crisis. In general, the global food crisis in 2007-2008 triggered food insecurity in many countries. Methods: Literature review method involves systematically identifying, recording, understanding, making meaning of, and transmitting information relevant to a particular topic of interest. It is considered a method because it encompasses specific approaches and procedures for conducting a review of existing literature. The literature reviewer selects from a variety of strategies and procedures to gather and analyze information, similar to how a researcher would approach a research study. Result and Discussion: ASEAN countries' cooperation in the context of food security involves the exchange of information, agricultural technology, and strategies to overcome food crises. ASEAN has developed initiatives such as ASEAN Plus Three to strengthen cooperation in agriculture and food security. Furthermore, agricultural research in ASEAN focuses on developing crop varieties that are more resistant to pests, diseases and climate change. This research also involves the use of innovative agricultural technologies to increase productivity, such as smart irrigation systems and sensor-based farm monitoring. The utilization of military capabilities and research efforts that can support the strengthening of food security can be a reference for various countries to always be ready to face the dynamics of the global crisis. Implication of the research: Sustainable agricultural practices, investing in agricultural technologies, and promoting policies that support food security at both local and global levels. By implementing a combination of these technical solutions and strategies, food security challenges can be addressed and a more secure future can be realized. Originality/value: The utilization of military forces and research efforts that can support the strengthening of food security can be a reference for various countries to always be ready to face the dynamics of the global crisis.

Military Technology and It’s Effectiveness in Future Wars Strategic Vision for Combat Robot Wars

Mankind no longer merely has its advanced muscular or military capabilities, not even nuclear weapons, but has developed an advanced generation of highly destructive electronic machines to replace the human element in the management of bloody wars. But where will destructive technology take humanity's future? Will the fate of the state be controlled by robots after their brains are developed beyond human intelligence? Will humans be able to control the next technological challenge or that robots will control the fate of nations and peoples? According to above questions, the hypothesis of the increased control of military technology of combat robots over the course of future wars has been formulated, resulting in the loss of human decisionmakers control over the course of political life.

Human-AI cognitive teaming: using AI to support state-level decision making on the resort to force

ABSTRACT Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly evolving and have already had major impacts on military capabilities in the battlefield, making new kinds of tools and tactics available. A less examined area of application for AI in a military context, however, is its impact on human strategic decision making. This article focuses on the more subtle cognitive influences of AI and how they can be strategically deployed to aid decision making around the state-level resort to force, in particular. I will argue that AI-driven technologies can be used to improve certain critical cognitive resources (e.g. memory, planning, mind-modelling, etc.) of decision makers, thereby providing valuable strategic advantages to those actors who use them successfully. At the same time, I will also caution against the risks of human decision makers becoming overly reliant on AI-support systems. Both the potential advantages and risks are areas that demand further study and consideration.

The logic of sexual violence by state security forces in civil wars

Wartime sexual violence exhibits significant variation both across and within civil conflicts. When explaining this variation, existing scholarly work primarily focuses on rebel groups and overlooks state actors engaged in sexualized civilian victimization. This paper extends the literature by concentrating on states as perpetrators of wartime sexual violence, linking the variation in state-perpetrated sexual violence to battlefield outcomes. It argues that when states suffer from battlefield losses, sexual violence by state security forces is likely to become more prevalent due to changes in motivations at both the command level and the rank-and-file level. Moreover, it suggests that the effect of battle losses on state-perpetrated sexual violence is greater if the states are particularly strong in terms of their military capabilities. Time-series cross-sectional analyses of all armed conflicts between the years 1989 and 2020 provide support for these theoretical expectations, indicating that the effect of battle losses on sexual violence is conditional on states’ military strength. The findings have important implications for the prevention of sexual violence in conflict zones.

Technological innovation, militarization, and environmental change: evidence from BRICS economies.

In the complex international society, the economic development and defense construction of BRICS countries have attracted increasing attention. This article incorporates technological innovation, militarization, and environmental change into a unified analytical framework to assess the potential impact of technological progress and defense military expenditure on the environment in BRICS countries. Based on CSD tests, unit root tests, and cointegration tests, this study constructs a CS-ARDL model to examine the long-term and short-term relationships among various variables from 1990 to 2021. The results show that technological innovation, military expenditure, and economic growth can significantly increase ecological footprint in the long run, while in the short term, technological innovation and economic growth significantly increase ecological footprint, and the impact of military expenditure is not significant. It is suggested that BRICS countries should focus on supporting low-carbon technology policies and research and development investment, while also considering the use of cutting-edge technology to improve military intelligence capabilities in order to reduce the negative impact of technological innovation and military activities on the environment.

Military Balancing for Future Conventional Arms Control Agreements in Europe

Abstract A qualitative assessment of the conventional military balance between NATO and Russia may form a basis of any potential conventional arms control (CAC) agreement in Europe. Article discusses methods to assess force capability and military balances, and then suggests updates to the methods based on insights from recent conflicts, military capability trends and developments. The article offers a weighted static force analysis model to assess military balances, that can be used for CAC agreements, called the Quantitative Approach to Conventional Arms Control (QuACAC). This approach may help narrow areas of disagreement between negotiating parties, and provide a basis for CAC agreement adaptation.

Sengketa Laut Cina Selatan: Analisis Realis terhadap Perebutan Kekuasaan, Respon Regional, dan Implikasi Geopolitik

The South China Sea dispute has emerged as a complex and highly contentious issue with significant implications for regional stability. From a realist perspective, these disputes reflect power struggles and influence among claimant states, driven by their desire to secure strategic interests in the region. Neighboring countries, recognizing the impact of China's rise as a great power, have responded by boosting their military capabilities and forming alliances to counterbalance China's growing influence. However, analyzing South China Sea disputes through a realist lens provides valuable insights into power struggles, vested interests, and security issues underlying the conflict. Through a critical review of territorial claims, legal frameworks, and the historical context of disputes, this paper provides a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted nature of such disputes. In addition, the report explores the geopolitical implications and involvement of major powers in the region.

From Liberalisation to Industrial Policy: Towards a Geoeconomic Turn in the European Defence Market?

AbstractThe European defence market can be described as a geoeconomically relevant sector that forms part of Europe's overall economy, not least in the way that it is a producer of military capabilities and technologies and a repository of scientific skills. Traditionally, European Union (EU)‐level steps to support and liberalise the sector have reflected a regulatory approach marked by soft law, but in recent years, the EU has also developed financial tools to incentivise defence co‐operation. Looking specifically at the European Defence Fund (EDF), this article views this transition as evidence of a ‘geoeconomic turn’ in European defence market policy that is a response to structural challenges related to technology control, security of supply and geopolitical competition. Employing relative gains theory and liberal intergovernmentalism, this article charts the transition from market liberalisation to industrial policy in EU defence market initiatives based on specific intra‐ and extra‐political dynamics.

Indonesian Strategic Leadership 5.0 Amidst Thucydides Trap (Dynamic System Approach)

The Indo-Pacific region is experiencing quite sharp conflicts. The power rivalry between these two countries also dragged Indonesia into Thucydides' trap because they joined an alliance with the aim of regional cooperation. This research aims to analyze the tendencies and projections of various aspects of the US vs China towards Indonesia in determining strategic leadership decisions 5.0. The method used is a dynamic system using 2018 time series data and projections up to 2050. The variables used by the Loewy Institute are Economic Relations, Defense Network, Diplomatic Influence, Cultural Influence, Economic Capability, Military Capability, Resilience, and Future Resources. The research results show that the model and tendencies of the US vs China rivalry are influenced by several factors. From 2018 to 2050, it is known that the US vs China rivalry shows fluctuating conditions. Novelty in this research includes 8 scenarios from (1) economic relations such as enhancing multilateral diplomacy and dialogue, promoting regional economic and security cooperation, (2)Defense Network such as strengthening economic, political, and security relations, (3)Diplomatic Influence such as diplomatic approach and regional cooperation, (4)Cultural Influence utilizing US cultural influence to strengthen diplomacy and international cooperation, (5)Economic Capability such as Indonesia can be an effective mediator between the US and China, (6)Military Capability such as strategic leadership 5.0 relies on diplomacy and coalitions, (7)Resiliance and (8)Future Resources such as effective mediator and promotes bilateral and multilateral cooperation. In conclusion, the US vs China rivalry will experience fluctuating developments.

Comparing Historic Military Capabilities

Using comparative historical analysis to compare and contrast historic military capabilities is possible using the Defence Lines of Development as a model. Richard Fisher demonstrates how it is not appropriate to merely compare technical aspects of equipment, but that it is necessary to also consider the training, personnel, information, doctrine and concepts, organisation, infrastructure and logistics as part of a comprehensive comparison. Equipment comparisons exist but are flawed as they may not identify the critical factors that enhance or diminish the overall capability. The method is evaluated using the infantry section’s machine guns of the Second World War: the Bren and MG42.◼

Intelligence and operational warning: lessons from Ukraine

ABSTRACT This paper examines the challenges of operational analysis as displayed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite the tremendous success of strategic warning, analysts grossly over-estimated conventional Russian military capabilities and under-estimated the Ukrainians’ capability and will. Even after observing Russia’s operational capabilities and tactics, analysts again over-estimated Russia’s ability to secure Eastern Ukraine. This study finds that poor understanding of military campaigns is the result of six contributing factors. One, risk management requires tradeoffs based on competing priorities and finite resources inevitably creating blind spots. Two, there can be insufficient collection for operational details due to a focus on strategic requirements or tactical intelligence. Three, an insufficient number of analysts required to cover a breadth of topics leaving them susceptible to challenges like mirror-imaging or single source bias, culminates in poor analysis. Four, Russian and Western external and internal strategic narratives were filled with deception. Fifth, despite ‘need to share’ policies, information stovepipes continue to plague Western intelligence agencies. Finally, a lack of professional wargaming can lead to an analysis-centric view that ignores the valuable expertise of operators and logisticians. Each of these factors contributed to analysts’ poor understanding of the operational level of war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Medical Sanctions Against Russia: Arresting Aggression or Abrogating Healthcare Rights?

Since 2022, the EU, US, and other nations have imposed medical sanctions on Russia to block the export of pharmaceuticals and medical devices and curtail clinical trials to degrade Russia’s military capabilities. While international law proscribes sanctions that cause a humanitarian crisis, an outcome averted in Russia, the military effects of medical sanctions have been lean. Strengthening medical sanctions risks violating noncombatant and combatant rights to healthcare. Each group’s claim is different. Noncombatants and severely injured soldiers who cannot return to duty enjoy the right to adequate health care that sanctions cannot undermine. Combatants falling captive enjoy the same medical care that adversaries provide their own troops. Combatants yet to renounce hostilities, however, have no claim to medical attention and remain subject to sanctions. Nevertheless, medical sanctions prove unworkable in this complex environment of conflicting rights and command no place in a sustainable sanction regime.

Zeitenwende: German Foreign Policy Change in the Wake of Russia's War Against Ukraine

Russia’s war against Ukraine has severely damaged the European security architecture. This article examines the consequences of this rupture for German foreign and security policy. Just a few months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany saw the transition to an unprecedented three-party coalition government of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals. In a special address to the Bundestag three days after the invasion, Chancellor Olaf Scholz described Russia’s war initiation as a historical Zeitenwende (“watershed”) that called into question long-held beliefs about European security. In the wake of this, Scholz proclaimed far-reaching changes, including the announcement that military expenditure would be drastically increased, additional military capabilities would be procured, and new deployments would be committed to NATO’s eastern flank. This article argues that the Zeitenwende amounts to an international orientation change in German foreign and security policy. Apart from identifying areas of significant change, the article also documents political contestation over the Zeitenwende’s nature and extent as well as gaps between proclaimed changes and actual implementation.

Cervical Disc Displacement in Military Pilots.

Cervical disc displacement (CDD) may disqualify pilots from flying and have a profound impact on military unit capability. The objective of this retrospective database review is to characterize the incidence and demographic predictors of symptomatic cervical spine disc displacement in pilots of fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft and ground-based controls. The Defense Military Epidemiology Database was queried for first-occurrence ICD-9 code 722.0: CDD cases from 2007 to 2015. Injury count rates among aircraft groups and overall incidence per 1,000 person-years were calculated and standardized for age, gender, and military rank, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared to determine significance. There were 934 new cases of CDD among active duty U.S. Military pilots during the study period. The overall incidence of CDD in all pilots during this time frame was 2.715 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 2.603-2.830). Helicopter pilots had a significantly higher incidence compared to all other aircraft pilots and crew at 3.79 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 3.48-4.13). This finding remained statistically significant after standardizing for age, gender, and rank. Among all military officers, increasing age was a risk factor for CDD. The U.S. Military helicopter pilots have an increased risk compared to fixed-wing pilots and non-pilot controls. CDD remains a rare, though career-threatening, condition. Increased education and awareness training are warranted for both helicopter pilots and flight physicians to recognize signs and symptoms of cervical pathology. Continued investigations into preventive measures to minimize injury and time unfit for flight are warranted.

The Urgency of Strategic Human Resources Planning for the Transformation of the Indonesian National Army Command and Staff College

Organizational transformation seems to be a trend amidst the current developments in various organizational strategic environments. Demands for organizational transformation also occur in military organizations. With Indonesia's military capabilities needing to continue to be improved, the transformation of Sesko TNI into a Military Strategy School is one of the areas of focus. In the context of this transformation, the role of human resource management is highly expected. Considering that the Sesko TNI will be transformed into the Military Strategy School, strategic human resource planning for the future has an important position. Therefore, this journal article proposes to analyze the urgency of strategic human resource planning so that it can contribute to the Sesko TNI organization being competitively superior in the future. Apart from that, competency variables that influence the quality of strategic human resource planning are also discussed. By applying literature studies, this article shows the results that it is important for Sesko TNI to implement strategic human resource planning considering the great urgency in the process of implementing strategic human resource planning, Sesko TNI is required to pay serious attention to the competence of planners so that quality of planning can be presented.

Possible expansion of BRICS in the Middle East

The article examines in detail the prospects for the inclusion of major oil countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, in the BRICS organization, the political, economic and military aspects of such a move, as well as BRICS need that, especially in Russia and China, in order to get rid of the current global financial system based on the dollar, which is actively used by the USA to punish states. The importance and novelty of the article are evident in the presentation of the political transformations of the BRICS countries and the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the subsequent reduction of tensions as a result of growing political and economic cooperation and integration with the countries of the Middle East. The entry of the energy-producing countries of the Middle East into the BRICS organization is a necessary step for disengagement of the dollar from energy, which began in 1971. The study presented in this article concluded that the countries of the Middle East have military capabilities, natural resources, as well as development programs and projects to diversify sources of national production, which makes them a strategic addition to the BRICS. Many countries in the Middle East are seeking refuge from the hegemony of the United States of America by opening up to counter-alliances represented by the BRICS and joining the organization's development bank to achieve stability and promote the development of these countries.

From Decision-Making to Soldier Augmentation: How AI is Enhancing Military Capabilities

Abstract: The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into military operations signifies a revolutionary shift in the conduct and strategy of modern warfare. This paper, authored by MAJ Jody Holeton, provides an in-depth analysis of the multifaceted role of AI in enhancing the operational capabilities of the U.S. Army. The study begins with an introduction to the evolving landscape of AI in military domains, emphasizing the need for advanced technologies in the face of rapidly changing combat environments and the pursuit of strategic superiority. The paper delves into the critical role of AI in enhancing decision-making processes, highlighting projects like Maven which utilize AI for real-time intelligence analysis and predictive analytics. The focus then shifts to predictive maintenance, using examples like the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter to demonstrate how AI improves equipment reliability and operational readiness

THE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY LANDSCAPE IN THE UK POST-BREXIT

On November 15, 2023, Professor Julian Richards presented The Intelligence and Security Landscape in the UK Post-Brexit for this year’s West Coast Security Conference. The presentation was followed by a question-and-answer period with questions from the audience and CASIS Vancouver executives. The key points discussed were the long-term and intertwined relationship between the UK and EU, the main dimensions that this relationship holds—being first of a strategic and military nature and second a homeland security focus—and the role of international conflicts in illustrating the military capabilities of the UK and EU following Brexit. 
 
 Received: 01-26-2024
 Revised: 01-29-2024

Military training in modern geopolitical realities

Introduction. An assessment is made of the role of military training in terms of the geopolitical stability of Russia as an important player on the world stage. The interrelation of war and military affairs from the factors of domestic and foreign policy is shown.Purpose setting. The problem of military training in the conditions of military confrontation with the countries of the «collective West» is put forward as the fundamental task of the study. Analyzing the reforms of the country's military organization, starting from the 2000s of the XX century, the author focuses on the fact that the sovereignty of the state can be ensured only if there is a combat-ready Armed Forces, where an important role belongs to a full-fledged military mobilization reserve. Two components of the personnel of the Ministry of Defense – professional military personnel and those liable for military service who are in the reserve – act as a condition and guarantor of their readiness to repel aggression. Therefore, their military training should be organized taking into account changes in the field of military affairs, and the system of military training itself should cover the entire population.Methodology and methods of the study. The methodology is based on the analysis and comparison of the experience of military reforms by the top leadership of the military department of the Russian Federation since the early 2000s and the solution of these issues at the present time and in the near future. The dialectical approach helps the author to show the causal relationship of military reforms in Russia and their impact on the state of military educational activities, and, accordingly, the quality of training of military personnel.Results. The results of the study should be considered a demonstration of military training in Russia from the point of view of the changed conditions of geopolitics.Conclusions. The outcomes that conclude this study sum up the full range of information presented that, in order to ensure long-term peace, a country must have a reliable military capability based on militarily trained human resources. It is not by chance that the article analyzes the nature of the special military operation in Ukraine. This experience, as well as the experience of Russia's participation in other wars and military conflicts, allows us to substantiate the conclusions about the organization of an effective system of professional military training in Russia.

Current Issues of Peace and Security Taking Into Account Aggressive Policy of the Russian Federation

This article examines the issue of violation of the principle of territorial integrity (integrity) or political independence of states from 1946 to 2022. The approach is based on the study and understanding of domestic and foreign literary sources, statistics, legal acts. So, the historic, comparative, formal juridical and prognostic methods will be used. Russia gained the status of an independent entity in the international arena immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Almost immediately, it began to show signs of aggression. To promote its geopolitical ambitions, it uses gaps in international law, information and psychological measures, corruption, mercenaries, collaborators, blackmail, the law of force, and tries to rewrite history. The course of military conflicts involving Russia in Moldova, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Ukraine shows that the scale of violations of international treaties, human rights and the rules of warfare has increased in line with the strengthening of its military capabilities. During the hostilities on the territory of independent Ukraine, Russia showed a complete list of signs of aggression, as defined by UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (XXIX) of December 14, 1974. This shows that before the armed attack on Ukraine, the aggressor was convinced that it could not be brought to justice and punished. It also hoped that his next victim would not be able to receive international political, economic, military and social assistance. Some actions of Russia in the international arena have signs of state terrorism. During the last ten years, a fascist regime has formed in Russia. The abuse of the veto did not lead to the expulsion of the aggressor country from the UN SC.
 To stop Russia’s aggression and prevent similar developments in the future, the issues of improving international law, bringing to justice the political and military leadership of the republic of Belarus and Russia, improving the UN Charter, the powers of the UN General Assembly, depriving Russia of the right to participate in peacekeeping operations.