Military Capabilities Research Articles

The Asymmetries Generated by New Weapon Systems and Their Role in Achieving Success on the Battlefield. The Impact of HIMARS on the Conflict in Ukraine

The advent of new weapon systems, which integrate the latest technologies, is transforming the battlefield and redefining the character of contemporary modern warfare. The recent armed conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, by their complexity, serve to illustrate the diversification of threats and the adaptation of military capabilities to counter them. Regardless of the type of conflict, success on the battlefield depends on the ability to gain an advantage over the enemy and exploit it. Such an advantage may be derived from the realization of asymmetries on the battlefield, which may be generated at all levels of military operations. The equipping of the Ukrainian forces with the HIMARS system in the summer of 2022 has given them a significant position of advantage, creating a number of tactical and operational asymmetries. In this context, the objective of this research is to identify the asymmetries generated by the HIMARS system and to determine how they contributed to the battlefield success. The key findings are of significant value due to the fact that most NATO member states, including Romania, are making efforts to strengthen their HIMARS capabilities.

NATO’s Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Interoperability Challenges: The Case of Turkey

ABSTRACT The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly changed military applications, creating new competitive advantages and shifting the global balance of power. This article examines NATO’s AI strategy and the associated interoperability challenges, with a particular focus on Turkey. NATO’s AI strategy seeks to enhance interoperability among its member states by fostering the integration of AI technologies into military capabilities. However, achieving this goal is complicated by the varying levels of AI technological advancement, divergent national AI-military strategies and differing geopolitical considerations among member countries. Using Turkey as a case study, this paper explores how the rapid development of AI-based military drones contributes to Turkey’s strategic autonomy and enhances regime resilience while also highlighting certain interoperability considerations within NATO. The analysis underlines the need for a cohesive approach to AI integration that addresses these disparities to maintain NATO’s collective defence capabilities.

A Will to Win: The Role of the Public in Taiwan’s Defensive Military Outlook

Public support is a critical factor in the outcome of interstate conflicts, yet, how it operates, interacts with hard power, or influences the overall military outlook remains surprisingly undertheorized. Public support has been particularly salient for such states as Finland and Ukraine that have faced opponents of vastly greater military size, capability, and sophistication. This paper advances an original theory on the strategic utility of public support for conflict through an analysis of the case of Taiwan, a potential current flashpoint for a great power war. This paper assesses trends in Taiwanese public support for resisting a Chinese invasion over time, identifies a major upswing in the public’s willingness to fight, and argues that further coordination by state and societal actors could deter a Chinese attack or at least greatly increase the costs of an invasion and the likelihood of failure.

Sino-Belgian research collaborations and Chinese military power

ABSTRACT China’s rise as a scientific superpower and its increasingly assertive geopolitical stance have raised concerns among Western governments over the security implications of research collaborations with China. Indeed, studies have revealed how China uses technology transfers to advance its military capabilities. In this article, we examine the links of Sino-Belgian research collaborations to the Chinese military and the evolution of these collaborations using a mixed methods approach comprising a bibliometric analysis and two case studies. Our study finds that 10% of Sino-Belgian collaborations were on critical technologies and conducted with scientists affiliated to Chinese institutes with military links. The collaborations with a military link have increased rapidly over the last two decades and have grown faster than the overall Sino-Belgian research collaborations. The results of the study reveal that research collaboration in the knowledge domain has crucial ties to the security domain and should therefore be considered in international security analysis. However, invoking Susan Strange’s structural power theory, we argue that Sino-Belgian research collaborations should not only be seen as contributing to China’s military power but also as a function of China’s growing overall power, including in the knowledge structure, where it entails the power to convey or deny knowledge.

Standardization Trends and Military Communication Applications of Core Technologies of 5G NR

5G New Radio(NR) technology, with its focus on high speed, low latency, and connectivity, introduces crucial advancements like MIMO for enhanced reliability and transmission rates, edge computing for reduced latency, and IAB for extended coverage. However, military communication networks face challenges such as limited capacity, unpredictable mobility and communication dead zones. This paper delves into the trends of the above 5G NR technologies outlined by the 3GPP standard, exploring their potential applications within military infrastructure networks. Our aim is to underscore the benefits of harnessing these technologies in military settings. Additionally, through simulation, we forecast the advantages associated with integrating these core 5G NR technologies, thereby paving the way for enhanced military communication capabilities.

Wie kann die Sicherheitslage in Deutschland verbessert werden?

Abstract Since the “Zeitenwende” proclaimed in Spring 2022, there has been an increased focus on both internal and external security issues, such as the procurement of military goods and defense capabilities. The geopolitical dynamics towards more multipolarity are forcing Europe, and therefore Germany as well, to take greater control of its own destiny. Emancipation from former hegemons offers opportunities; at the same time, successful economic policy navigation requires the efficient use of scarce public funds. Fiscal policy and social debates are controversial. Just think of the budget proposals currently being discussed and the reintroduction of compulsory military service. This discussion explores the extent, direction and sustainable financing options for the necessary changes. What all contributions have in common is the recognition of the necessity and potential of effective coordination at the European level on the issue of military sovereignty.

The Acquisition of Modern Technologies by the Indian Military: Strategic Security and Geopolitical Implications for Pakistan

A comprehensive military modernization plan is being followed by India; despite many regional impediments it has acquired enough state-of-the-art weapons in various fields. Resultantly this has enhanced the insecurity spectrum in the region and Pakistan in particular. In this regard, strategic stability and balance of power in the South Asia region particularly among Pakistan and India is muddling. In the light of geostrategic compulsions, India has been successful in receiving unflinching assistance, especially from the US-led Western world primarily against China. Furthermore, one of the most regional impediments is a perpetual arms race in the region which is considered to be an eminent challenge for regional development and prosperity. However, the spillover effect of foreign-backed Indian military modernization has posed certain compulsions on Pakistan to enhance its military capability. Such regional developments are exponentially maximizing the existing vacuum triggered by territorial conflicts and ideological differences between Pakistan and India.

From Oslo to Be’eri: how the 30-years-long peace delusion led to Hamas’s 10/7 massacres

ABSTRACT The failure to prevent Hamas’s slaughter of some 1,300 Israelis on 7 October 2023 – the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust – is a direct result of an emergency phone consultation three hours before the terror group’s invasion of Israel with the participation of the IDF’s and Shin Bet’s top leaders, who decided to do nothing despite acute warning signals and failed to alert the Gaza division commander and the political echelon to the imminent attack. Had they taken the minimal precautionary measures, the catastrophe would have been averted altogether. To fully understand the mindset underlying this monumental blunder requires tracing its evolution within the context of the 30-years-long Oslo peace delusion in general, and during the turbulent year preceding the 10/7 massacres in particular. That is: the substitution of a grand strategic deception aimed at Israel’s destruction for a true peace process and the attendant emasculation of the IDF’s military capabilities and combative/offensive ethos, on the one hand, and the unravelling of Israel’s sociopolitical fabric that culminated in the 2023 mass civil disobedience that enticed Hamas into action, on the other. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposed the Oslo process from the outset and managed to neutralise its most catastrophic potential calamity – the establishment of a Palestinian state committed to Israel’s destruction in the West Bank and Gaza – failed to extricate Israel from this disastrous course and was ironically forced to bear its full brunt on 7 October 2023.

FDI, defense spending, and economic prosperity

AbstractThe relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and military spending in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is complex and multifaceted. High levels of military spending can deter foreign investors, as it creates an uncertain and potentially volatile investment climate. However, countries that invest in their military infrastructure and capabilities may be seen as more stable and secure, which can attract foreign investors. Taking into account several factors that can influence this relationship, including political stability, security concerns, and economic factors, this work analyzes whether military spending attracts foreign capital into the region. Using a dynamic panel data methodology along with other relevant macroeconomic variables, results show that the military expenditure has a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows into the MENA region. The paper highlights the fact that policymakers in the region must carefully balance military spending with investments in other areas of the economy in order to create a stable and favorable investment climate that attracts foreign investors and contributes to long‐term economic growth and development achieving both security and welfare.

Struggle for the Legacy: Sino-India Rivalry over Energy Sources in the Indian Ocean

Global economic power has shifted from the Atlantic waters to the Indo-Pacific waters. China and India are robust rising powers competing for ultimate regional and global politico-economic opportunities. Energy has become a common factor for both nations, leading to overlapping spheres of influence, strategic responses, and national interests. This article addresses the puzzle of the absence of military confrontations over the issues of energy sources in circumstances that carry enormous potential for conflict. This study aims to contribute to filling the research gap in interpreting the rivalry between China and India over energy resources. The analysis extends through an eclectic approach, incorporating assorted through assorted debates from different realist thought strands. It treats the theories of international relations as emphasising the structure of international relations. However, there is a complex interplay with the perceptions of those structures by the foreign policymakers of a country. The tentative hypothesis of this study has been that “energy rivalry between rising military powers in the Indian Ocean has increased tension, though not to the extent of violent confrontation”. They bargain for regional hegemony, but a deterrent effect prevents an armed conflict between two rising powers. The findings suggest that the tentative hypothesis is supported by substantial evidence regarding energy-based rivalry. Amidst aspiration to dominate, especially over security and energy affairs, neither China nor India would entrench towards a “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD). Besides acquiring defensive and offensive military capabilities, they are also concerned with diversifying its energy policies, including land routes for energy supply. The possibility of mutually assured destruction provides an incentive for deterrence, preventing violent confrontation over energy issue in the Indian Ocean.

Campaigning with partners in the fourth age of SOF – the case of Norwegian – U.S. High North collaboration

Special Operations Forces (SOF) need to adapt to a new operating environment, characterized by competition, state-centric threats, and the use of conventional military power. The adaptation is a consequence of the existing causal relationship between given security environments and the role and activities of SOF. In the case of the High North, this entails SOF pivoting from being the supported entity to a supporting entity of the combined joint force. Norwegian, and U.S. SOF can effectively campaign in this theater by focusing at how different aspects influence future success. Aspects discussed are (i) Perspective, (ii) Conventional Military Capabilities, (iii) SOF Capabilities and Authorities (iv) Development and Investments, and (v) Adversaries and Competitors. By prioritizing and understanding how these aspects influence future campaigns, the Combined effort of Norway and the U.S. will be postured to support strategic objectives within the High North as defined by policymakers and military commanders.

To compete or strategically retreat? The global diffusion of reconnaissance strike

The reconnaissance strike complex is synonymous with modern military power, and prominent realist theories would have predicted rapid proliferation after its successful debut in the Gulf War. Instead, the complex has proliferated slowly. To explain this puzzle, we theorize that interstate security threats significantly impact proliferation, but not in the way traditionally presumed. Although the literature on weapons proliferation has largely assumed a monotonically increasing relationship should hold between the capabilities of a state’s adversaries and a state’s own capability, we draw from the economics literature and game theoretic insights from political science to argue that the relationship should resemble an inverted-U. When states have rivals with moderate reconnaissance strike capabilities, they have security incentives to compete with them. However, when states face highly advanced adversaries, it becomes more difficult to escape or match their competition, making symmetrical acquisition less appealing. While most prior research focuses on narrower aspects of the reconnaissance strike complex like missiles or smart bombs, we test our theory on a novel dataset tracking country-level acquisition of eight aspects of the complex from 1980 to 2017: Ballistic missiles; bombers; cruise missiles; fighter aircraft; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets; precision-guided munitions; satellites; and submarines. We find strong support for our inverted-U argument. States that have rivals with moderate reconnaissance strike capabilities have over double the reconnaissance strike capabilities themselves than states that have rivals with very low or very high capabilities. Our findings hold for broader measures of the complex that closely proxy a state’s general military capabilities, narrower measures of the complex, and alternative measures of general military sophistication, indicating our theory has broad applicability. This article explains why some states invest heavily in conventional capabilities despite an already-large lead over their adversaries, and why other states instead opt to invest in alternatives rather than balancing symmetrically.

Analyzing Post-2010 China-US Defense Expenditures: Uncovering the NewArmsRace

The New Arms Race encapsulates a dynamic geopolitical competition characterized by escalating military capabilities and strategic posturing between the U.S and China. Amidst the intensifying Sino-US arms race, the objective of this research is to examine the trends and patterns of Sino-USdefense spending’s (2010-2022) to analyze the evolving military competition's strategic, economic and social implications, contributing to the discourse on global security and stability. Data from reputable sources like SIPRI, IISS, plus official budget reports and defense White-Paper’s inform the analysis. Using a mix-method approach, quantitative data is descriptively presented to highlight trends, patterns, and significant changes over time. Plus, qualitative analysis is conducted to interpret the implications of these expenses, drawing on International Relation’s theories and expert opinions to assess how shifts in military spending influences power dynamics, alliances, and conflicts? The results show that, the global military expenditures surpassed $2240 billion. China's defense spending has seen a 29-year consecutive increase, while the US maintains its top spender status, propelled by ongoing modernization efforts and diverse geopolitical strategies. This study is Grounded in the "Security Dilemma" framework, assumes that potential enemies would viewa country's attempts to strengthen its security as a threat, setting off a cycle of action and reaction that deepens mutual suspicions and contributes to the potential for an arms race. Due to the Sino-US ongoing military modernization plans and diverse geopolitical strategies, it is suggested that this tendency will persist in the foreseeable future.

Institutional change of the Colombian army 2012–2021

ABSTRACT Military transformations occur reactively in response to changes in environmental conditions and conflicts. Likewise, military transformations show a tendency to copy the best practices of the most powerful forces and of organizations like North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). However, little is known about the effect of a proactive planning strategy on the transformation process. This article raises the theoretical debate on the institutional change of the Colombian Army, presenting evidence that allows us to define whether it has been carried out in a reactive, evolutionary way or with a design-based approach which would lead to the development of institutional work through the modification of the factors of military capabilities. The main result shows the presence of institutional work to generate disruptions in the Army. Particularly when altering the doctrine, changes in education and training are triggered, which allows the organizational structure to be redesigned to adopt new practices. However, limitations in the acquisition and deployment of new technologies and infrastructure inhibit institutional change and organizational transformation.

US–Afghanistan Relations Post-withdrawal: Is There a Future?

Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, no country, including the United States (US), has yet recognised the former. The US has consistently urged the regime to comply with the Doha agreement that emphasised an inclusive government. Moreover, the Biden administration has repeatedly asked the regime to respect human rights and allow girls education and employment, but in vain. What explains the divergences in US–Afghanistan relations post-withdrawal? What is the trajectory of the US–Taliban ties in the current context? Above all, is there any possibility of the US recognition of the Taliban regime in the foreseeable future? Based on primary data, it is posited that the relations between the US and the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan are divergent and currently antagonistic due to the Taliban’s non-compliance with the Doha agreement. Futuristically, the study explores three scenarios to predict US–Afghanistan relations. First, there is a likelihood of US–Afghanistan rapprochement if the Taliban do the US bidding. Second, in cases of non-compliance, the US would get tough on the regime in terms of further sanctions. However, the Taliban would consolidate (informal) ties with China, Russia and other regional countries, including Pakistan. Third, the US has the military capabilities to do regime change in Afghanistan in case of another 9/11-type incident in the US.

The Strategic Management of Ukraine in The Ukraine vs Russia War: An Analysis Through SWOT Framework

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has significant implications for Ukraine's strategic management, presenting challenges across military, economic, and political dimensions. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of Ukraine's strategic management approach using the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) framework. Ukraine's strengths include a strong national identity, support from Western allies, and a capable military, which have helped maintain its sovereignty despite Russian aggression. However, weaknesses such as economic challenges, internal political divisions, and dependence on Western support hinder its independence and strategic position. Opportunities for Ukraine lie in building stronger alliances with Western countries, overcoming economic challenges, and implementing diplomatic initiatives. These efforts can provide financial and military assistance, address economic issues, and achieve goals through negotiation. Threats to Ukraine include Russian military power, economic coercion, and political interference, which limit Ukraine's ability to achieve its objectives and make it vulnerable to regional pressures. This paper examines Ukraine's strategic position in the conflict, considering geopolitical dynamics, military capabilities, and historical context, highlighting the strategic management approach through the SWOT framework.

Classification, military applications, and opportunities of unmanned aerial vehicles

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are cutting-edge technologies used for military purposes world-wide at tactical, operational, and strategic levels. This study provides an overview of the history and current state of military drones, considering a global and Ecuadorian background. Then, a classification of the UAVs developed and built in Ecuador is conducted based on their endurance, altitude, and wing span to understand the national context and progress. The research also delves into the applications of UAVs in several military operations and missions, aiming to create a framework that aligns UAV capabilities with specific operational needs; this permits the identification of the challenges and opportunities the country faces. Unmanned aerial systems have changed the battlefield, and the government needs to adapt to a national strategy that incorporates this technology; this research analyzes and provides insights to improve military capabilities such as exploring modern UAV military applications, technical updates in communication, navigation, and data acquisition systems; and the integration of emerging technologies like smart materials, artificial intelligence, and electric propulsion systems. This study provides valuable insights into the Ecuadorian UAVs that enhance the country’s military operations and offer some applications and uses of this technology for national security.

Strategies For Addressing The Spillover Effect Of Mosaic Warfare In The South China Sea Conflict To Achieve National Security Stability

The South China Sea is a strategic area rich in natural resources and a crucial international shipping and trade route, making it a focal point of territorial disputes between China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. This conflict escalates tensions and the potential spillover effects of mosaic warfare that can impact Indonesia's national security and stability. This journal analyzes the strategic implications of the South China Sea conflict for Indonesia, exploring defensive and proactive strategies to mitigate risks and enhance national resilience. This research uses a qualitative descriptive approach based on historical analysis and content analysis, successfully identifying key areas of concern such as increased maritime security risks, the need for enhanced military capabilities, and the importance of regional and international cooperation. Proposed strategies include increased diplomatic engagement, strengthening defense capabilities, intelligence and security technology cooperation, and diversifying economic and trade routes. Indonesia must adopt a multifaceted and proactive strategy to protect its interests amidst regional instability, strengthen diplomatic relations within ASEAN and globally, enhance military and surveillance capabilities, and ensure economic resilience against potential disruptions in maritime trade routes. Public education and adherence to international law are also crucial for maintaining regional peace and security.

Transformation, insecurity, and uncontrolled automation: frames of military AI in the EU AI strategic discourse

ABSTRACT Despite the dual-use nature of AI, the emerging EU AI policy has excluded the military from the initial policy scope, by introducing it as a single-market issue and a predominantly civilian matter. However, both the existing EU tools for supporting developments in military AI and the existing literature on dual-use technologies suggest that the military realm is actually present, despite claims to the contrary. This tension raises a question: is the EU manoeuvring between the civil and military elements of AI in order to sideline the conversation on the military role in its self-identification and approach towards technologies? To see where and how the military element appears in the case of AI, the article aims to identify how military AI is framed in the EU. It empirically distinguishes three frames: military AI as a transformative technology (military capability building); military AI as increased insecurity (assessment of international dynamics as based on an arms race); and military AI as uncontrolled automation (calls to establish human control over automating military technology). The frames reveal differing views towards technology, the international environment, and the EU response to both. It argues that the notion of in-betweenness evolves not only in terms of blurring the lines between civil vs military use of the dual-use technology. It is also about EU self-positioning, which differs in the three frames (from military to normative power) by demonstrating manoeuvres between them depending on specific temporal and political circumstances.

Qatar–Türkiye relations during the embargo of Qatar: a case study in derivative power

AbstractStructurally, Qatar and Türkiye face different International Relations challenges—Turkey is a regional middle power with significant hard power resources, while Qatar is an ambitious small state with relatively scarce military capabilities. Nevertheless, the Arab Uprisings of 2011 and the shift from unipolarity to multipolarity provided the context for a dramatic acceleration in bilateral relations. In the decade and a half since those tumultuous events sent shockwaves across the Arab world, this relationship flourished to the extent that it can be located firmly on the alignment end of the alignment-rapprochement-discord-friction continuum. This paper assesses the extent that the concept of derivative power—whereby a small state derives power by convincing a larger state to take actions that boost its interests—played a role in driving forward this relationship during the embargo of Qatar between 2017 and 2021.