Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes Research Articles

Local and remote mean and extreme temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions

Abstract. The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to −0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India, significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m−2)−1 depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by local rather than remote aerosol forcing.

Reexamining the Mechanisms of East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Non–East Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

AbstractThis study examines the mechanisms by which the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes in response to non–East Asian (NEA) anthropogenic aerosol forcing by distinguishing the fast direct atmospheric response and slow ocean-mediated response to forcing using a global aerosol–climate coupled model. The results show that NEA aerosol forcing significantly exacerbates the weakening of the EASM due to local aerosol forcing. The fast response is dominant in the weakening of the EASM and an anomalous precipitation pattern over eastern China resembling the “southern flood and northern drought” pattern in the total response to NEA aerosol forcing. Changes in upper-tropospheric temperature caused by the fast response play a major role in the impact of NEA aerosol forcing on the EASM. Anomalous cooling occurs during summer in the upper troposphere (at ~40°N) over East Asia caused by the fast response. This is due to the combined effects of strong eastward cold advection in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes caused by increased aerosol loading in Europe and the resulting change in local meridional heat transport in East Asia. Subsequently, the zonal wind speed changes on either side of the anomalous cooling, and the East Asian subtropical jet shifts equatorward, thereby weakening the EASM. The changes in atmospheric temperature and the local Hadley cell caused by the slow response to NEA aerosol forcing are conducive to strengthening the southwesterly winds over eastern China. Our study suggests the importance of NEA aerosol forcing in driving changes in the EASM on a fast time scale.

Plio‐Pleistocene Hemispheric (A)Symmetries in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes

AbstractThe transition from the warm, stable climate of the Pliocene to the progressively colder glaciations of the Pleistocene, as well as the climate system's evolving response to stationary orbital forcing over the Pleistocene, beg important questions about fundamental climate processes relevant to understanding the impacts of modern anthropogenic forcing of the Earth's energy budget. Here, we gain insight into the evolution of Plio‐Pleistocene climate by generating an alkenone‐derived, orbitally resolved sea surface temperature (SST) record from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1125 in the southwest Pacific. We compare our data set to midlatitude and equatorial SST records and to the benthic ∂18O signal in order to evaluate similarities and differences in climate response between the hemispheres and across latitudes over the Plio‐Pleistocene. Secular trends indicate first‐order symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in the magnitude of mean, glacial, and interglacial cooling. However, the tight coupling that is observed on both secular and orbital timescales between Northern Hemisphere, high latitude, and tropical upwelling climate throughout the last 4 Ma does not extend to Southern Hemisphere climate records as Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensifies in the late Pliocene. The 41‐kyr signal remains weak at Site 1125 across the late Pliocene transition but strengthens in conjunction with a major increase in global climate system sensitivity to obliquity forcing beginning around 1.8 Ma. Our analysis points to regionally varied responses across the late Pliocene transition and the emergence of a global feedback mechanism and strengthened obliquity‐band climate sensitivity just prior to the mid‐Pleistocene transition.

Geocoronal Hydrogen Emission Variation Over Two Solar Cycles

AbstractGround‐based hydrogen Balmer‐α observations from Northern midlatitudes span multiple solar cycles, facilitating investigation of decadal scale variations, including natural variability in the hydrogen response to solar geophysical changes. Here we present a reanalysis of ground‐based hydrogen emission observations from the early 1990s and their comparison with observations obtained in 2000–2001 in the context of the extended Northern Hemisphere midlatitude geocoronal hydrogen emission data set. This work suggests an increase in hydrogen emission intensity between the solar‐maximum period of 1990–1991 (Solar Cycle 22) and the near‐solar‐maximum period of 2000–2001 (Solar Cycle 23), with the caveat that this is a limited data set and that there are calibration uncertainties discussed in this paper. Solar activity was higher during the earlier solar maximum period. Thus, the apparent increase in intensity is counter to previous observations from midlatitudes in which the observed intensity increases with higher solar activity. This increase was also not seen in comparison of intensities from three solar minima periods. Further, the apparent increase in intensity is also likely of larger magnitude than model simulations would predict due to increases in methane and carbon dioxide. We will discuss the reanalysis and recalibration of the 1990–1991 observations using current analysis approaches and the interpretation of these observations in the context of observations and modeling of hydrogen variation over different time scales. The detailed review of the calibration procedures has also provided insights to guide design of future observations.

Overestimated climate warming and climate variability due to spatially homogeneous CO2 in climate modeling over the Northern Hemisphere since the mid-19th century

Since the mid-19th century, the global atmospheric CO2 concentration (ACC) has increased dramatically due to the burning of fossil fuels. Because of unequal population growth and economic development among regions, the ACC increases possess strong spatial variability. Particularly, the increase in ACC has been larger in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than that at high- and low-latitudes. It is widely accepted that the ACC increase is the main reason for climate change, but the potential impacts of its spatial distribution on the climate system remain unclear. Therefore, we carried out two groups of 150-year experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), using both spatially inhomogeneous (hereafter the SIC experiment) and homogenous (hereafter the SHC experiment) ACC increases in their settings. We found that the models’ divergences occurred over the NH mid-latitudes, the Arctic and the western part of the tropical Pacific. SHC overestimated (underestimated) climate warming over the Artic (mid-latitudes), which may be induced by the intensified westerly and weakened meridional heat exchange between mid- and high latitudes in the NH. Over the tropical Pacific, the overestimation of climate warming may be induced by intensified Walker circulation coupled with the La Niña climate mode. For the entire NH, relative to SIC, SHC overestimated the climate warming from 1850 to 1999 by ~10%. Meanwhile, the SHC experiment also overestimated the interannual variabilities in temperature and precipitation, resulting in more serious extreme events. These findings suggest that human contributions to climate warming and increased extreme events since the industrial revolution may be overestimated when using a spatially homogenous ACC.

Formation and composition of the UTLS aerosol

Stratospheric aerosol has long been seen as a pure mixture of sulfuric acid and water. Recent measurements, however, found a considerable carbonaceous fraction extending at least 8 km into the stratosphere. This fraction affects the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the radiative properties, and hence the radiative forcing and climate impact of the stratospheric aerosol. Here we present an investigation based on a decade (2005–2014) of airborne aerosol sampling at 9–12 km altitude in the tropics and the northern hemisphere (NH) aboard the IAGOS-CARIBIC passenger aircraft. We find that the chemical composition of tropospheric aerosol in the tropics differs markedly from that at NH midlatitudes, and, that the carbonaceous stratospheric aerosol is oxygen-poor compared to the tropospheric aerosol. Furthermore, the carbonaceous and sulfurous components of the aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) show strong increases in concentration connected with springtime subsidence from overlying stratospheric layers. The LMS concentrations significantly exceed those in the troposphere, thus clearly indicating a stratospheric production of not only the well-established sulfurous aerosol, but also a considerable but less understood carbonaceous component.

Global Variability of Simulated and Observed Vegetation Growing Season

AbstractVegetation phenology and its variability have substantial influence on land‐atmosphere interaction, and changes in growing season length are additional indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems. For these reasons, global land surface models are routinely evaluated in order to assess their ability to reproduce the observed phenological variability. In this work, we present a new approach that integrates a wider spectrum of growing season modes, in order to better describe the observed variability in vegetation growing season onset and offset, as well as assess the ability of state‐of‐the‐art land surface models to capture this variability at the global scale. The method is applied to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) simulations and LAI3g satellite observation. The comparison between data and model outputs shows that CLM4.5 is capable of reproducing the growing season features in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high latitude, but also displays its limitations in areas where water availability acts as the main driver of vegetation phenological activity. Besides, the new approach allows evaluating land surface models in capturing multigrowing‐season phenology. In this regard, CLM4.5 proves its ability in reproducing the two‐growing‐season cycles in the Horn of Africa. In general, the new methodology expands the area of analysis from northern midlatitude and high latitude to the global continental areas and allows to assess the vegetation response to the ongoing climate change in a larger variety of ecosystems, ranging from semiarid regions to rain forests, passing through temperate deciduous and boreal evergreen forests.

Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes

The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in cold spells, two complementary ways to optimise the signal-to-noise ratio are employed: multi-decadal series at individual stations, and for shorter time periods by using spatially aggregated measures. Global warming is now strong enough to make trends clear at individual stations when considering long enough (>50 yr) records of daily minimum and maximum temperature. Calculating the land area that has temperatures below the 1-in-10 year return value (defined over 1951–1980) enables us to investigate trends over a shorter time horizon. The long-term station data have strong decreases everywhere in the lowest minimum temperature. Warming trends in the lowest maximum temperature are smaller over most of the Northern Hemisphere, with dataset-dependent indications of possible negative trends in parts of the United States and Mexico. Considering the area experiencing cold waves over the last decades, the most notable feature is a sharp decline of this area since the 1980s. The natural variability is still so large that it is possible to arbitrarily select starting dates after the decline for which the trend is slightly positive in smaller regions like North America or Europe. However, these values are within uncertainties compatible with a steady decline and have differing starting dates in North America and Europe. An analysis of the entire northern midlatitudes confirms the steady decrease in severity and frequency of cold waves over the last decades in the observations.

Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of northern midlatitude cold regions

Cold region hydrology is conditioned by distinct cryospheric and hydrological processes. While snowmelt is the main contributor to both surface and subsurface flows, seasonally frozen soil also influences the partition of meltwater and rain between these flows. Cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have been shown to be sensitive to climate change. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of this region is therefore crucial, as it supports a significant amount of population relying on hydrological services and subjected to changing hydrological risks. We present an exhaustive review of the literature on historical and projected future changes on cold region hydrology in response to climate change. Changes in snow, soil, and streamflow key metrics were investigated and summarized at the hemispheric scale, down to the basin scale. We found substantial evidence of both historical and projected changes in the reviewed hydrological metrics. These metrics were shown to display different sensitivities to climate change, depending on the cold season temperature regime of a given region. Given the historical and projected future warming during the 21st century, the most drastic changes were found to be occurring over regions with near-freezing air temperatures. Colder regions, on the other hand, were found to be comparatively less sensitive to climate change. The complex interactions between the snow and soil metrics resulted in either colder or warmer soils, which led to increasing or decreasing frost depths, influencing the partitioning rates between the surface and subsurface flows. The most consistent and salient hydrological responses to both historical and projected climate change were an earlier occurrence of snowmelt floods, an overall increase in water availability and streamflow during winter, and a decrease in water availability and streamflow during the warm season, which calls for renewed assessments of existing water supply and flood risk management strategies.

When and where do ECMWF seasonal forecast systems exhibit anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio?

Seasonal predictions of wintertime climate in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, while showing clear correlation skill, suffer from anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio means that forecasts need to be made with large ensemble sizes and require significant post‐processing to correct the forecast distribution. In this study, a recently introduced statistical model of seasonal climate predictability is adapted so that it can be used to examine the signal‐to‐noise ratio in two versions of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system. Three novel features of the low signal‐to‐noise ratio are revealed. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is present only for forecasts initialized on 1 November and not for forecasts initialized on 1 December. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is predominantly a feature of the lower and middle troposphere and is not present in the stratosphere. The low signal‐to‐noise ratio is linked to low signal amplitude of the forecast systems in early winter. Future studies attempting to examine the signal‐to‐noise ratio should focus on the extent to which this early winter variability is predictable.

Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data

Abstract. We derive a minimal dynamical systems model for the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude jet dynamics by embedding atmospheric data and by investigating its properties (bifurcation structure, stability, local dimensions) for different atmospheric flow regimes. The derivation is a three-step process: first, we obtain a 1-D description of the midlatitude jet stream by computing the position of the jet at each longitude using ERA-Interim. Next, we use the embedding procedure to derive a map of the local jet position dynamics. Finally, we introduce the coupling and stochastic effects deriving from both atmospheric turbulence and topographic disturbances to the jet. We then analyze the dynamical properties of the model in different regimes: one that gives the closest representation of the properties extracted from real data; one featuring a stronger jet (strong coupling); one featuring a weaker jet (weak coupling); and one with modified topography. Our model, notwithstanding its simplicity, provides an instructive description of the dynamical properties of the atmospheric jet.

The Extreme Precipitation Index (EPI): A Coupled Dynamic–Thermodynamic Metric to Diagnose Midlatitude Floods Associated with Flow Reversal

Abstract The extreme precipitation index (EPI) is a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic metric that can diagnose extreme precipitation events associated with flow reversal in the mid- to upper troposphere (e.g., Rex and omega blocks, cutoff cyclones, Rossby wave breaks). Recent billion dollar (U.S. dollars) floods across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes were associated with flow reversal, as long-duration ascent (dynamics) occurred in the presence of anomalously warm and moist air (thermodynamics). The EPI can detect this potent combination of ingredients and offers advantages over model precipitation forecasts because it relies on mass fields instead of parameterizations. The EPI’s dynamics component incorporates modified versions of two accepted blocking criteria, designed to detect flow reversal during the relatively short duration of extreme precipitation events. The thermodynamic component utilizes standardized anomalies of equivalent potential temperature. Proof-of-concept is demonstrated using four high-impact floods: the 2013 Alberta Flood, Canada’s second costliest natural disaster on record; the 2016 western Europe Flood, which caused the worst flooding in France in a century; the 2000 southern Alpine event responsible for major flooding in Switzerland; and the catastrophic August 2016 Louisiana Flood. EPI frequency maxima are located across the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid- and high latitudes, including near the climatological subtropical jet stream, while secondary maxima are located near the Rockies and Alps. EPI accuracy is briefly assessed using pattern correlation and qualitative associations with an extreme precipitation event climatology. Results show that the EPI may provide potential benefits to flood forecasters, particularly in the 3–10-day range.

Winter 2018 major sudden stratospheric warming impact on midlatitude mesosphere from microwave radiometer measurements

Abstract. The impact of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic in February 2018 on the midlatitude mesosphere is investigated by performing the microwave radiometer measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0∘ N, 36.3∘ E). The mesospheric peculiarities of this SSW event were observed using a recently designed and installed microwave radiometer in eastern Europe for the first time. Data from the ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses, as well as the Aura microwave limb sounder measurements, are also used. Microwave observations of the daily CO profiles in January–March 2018 allowed for the retrieval of mesospheric zonal wind at 70–85 km (below the winter mesopause) over the Kharkiv site. Reversal of the mesospheric westerly from about 10 m s−1 to an easterly wind of about −10 m s−1 around 10 February was observed. The local microwave observations at our Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude site combined with reanalysis data show wide-ranging daily variability in CO, zonal wind, and temperature in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the SSW of 2018. The observed local CO variability can be explained mainly by horizontal air mass redistribution due to planetary wave activity. Replacement of the CO-rich polar vortex air by CO-poor air of the surrounding area led to a significant mesospheric CO decrease over the station during the SSW and fragmentation of the vortex over the station at the SSW start caused enhanced stratospheric CO at about 30 km. The results of microwave measurements of CO and zonal wind in the midlatitude mesosphere at 70–85 km altitudes, which still are not adequately covered by ground-based observations, are useful for improving our understanding of the SSW impacts in this region.

Thermal Regime of the Troposphere, Stratosphere, and Lower Mesosphere in the Northern Hemisphere in 1979–2016

The characteristics of spatiotemporal variability of air temperature and ozone mass mixing ratio at 26 levels from the ground to the altitude of 64 km are considered using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2016. Differences are revealed in the distribution of air temperature trends between seasons and latitude zones, between the Atlantic-European, Asian-Pacific, and American sectors of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and between the thermal regime over the land and ocean. The correlations between the layers and atmospheric circulation patterns in different seasons are assessed.

Trends in N<sub>2</sub>O and SF<sub>6</sub> mole fractions in archived air samples from Cape Meares, Oregon (USA), 1978–1996

Abstract. Quantifying historical trends in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is important to understanding changes in their budgets and for climate modeling, which simulates historic and projects future climate. Archived samples analyzed using updated measurement techniques and calibration scales can reduce uncertainties in historic records of GHG mole fractions and their trends in time. Here, we present historical measurements of two important GHGs, nitrous oxide (N2O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), collected at the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere station Cape Meares, Oregon (USA, 45.5∘ N, 124∘ W), between 1978 and 1996 in archived air samples from the Oregon Health and Science University – Portland State University (OHSU–PSU) air archive. N2O is the third most important anthropogenically forced GHG behind carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). SF6 has a low abundance in the atmosphere, but is one of the most powerful GHGs known. Measurements of atmospheric N2O made during this period are available for select locations, but before mid-1990 they have larger uncertainties than more recent periods due to advancements made in gas chromatography (GC) methods. Few atmospheric SF6 measurements exist pre-1990, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The GC system used to measure N2O and SF6 mixing ratios in this work is designed to be fully automated, and is capable of running up to 15 samples per batch. Measurement precision (1σ) of N2O and SF6 is 0.16 % and 1.1 %, respectively (evaluated at 328.7 ppb and 8.8 ppt). Samples were corrected for detector response nonlinearity when measured against our reference standard, with the corrections determined to be 0.14 ppb ppb−1 in N2O and 0.03 ppt ppt−1 in SF6. The mixing ratio of N2O in archived samples is found to be 301.5±0.3 ppb in 1980 and rises to 313.5±0.3 ppb in 1996. The average growth rate over this period is 0.78±0.03 ppb yr−1 (95 % CI). The seasonal amplitude is statistically robust, with a maximum anomaly of 0.3 ppb near April and a minimum near November of −0.4 ppb. Measurements of N2O match well with previously reported values for Cape Meares and other comparable locations. The mixing ratio of SF6 in analyzed samples is found to be 0.85±0.03 ppt in 1980 and rises to 3.83±0.03 ppt in 1996. The average growth rate over this period is 0.17±0.01 ppt yr−1 (95 % CI). The seasonality is statistically robust and has an annual peak amplitude of 0.04 ppt near January and a minimum amplitude of −0.03 ppt near July. These are unique SF6 results from this site and represent a significant increase in the SF6 data available during the 1980s and early 1990s. The mixing ratio and growth rate of SF6 measured compares well to other Northern Hemisphere measurements over this period. From these N2O and SF6 measurements, we conclude that sample integrity is generally robust in the OHSU-PSU air archive for N2O and SF6.

Spectral Decomposition and Extremes of Atmospheric Meridional Energy Transport in the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes

AbstractThe atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is mainly accomplished by planetary and synoptic waves. A decomposition into wave components highlights the strong seasonal dependence of the transport, with both the total transport and the contributions from planetary and synoptic waves peaking in winter. In both winter and summer months, poleward transport extremes primarily result from a constructive interference between planetary and synoptic motions. The contribution of the mean meridional circulation is close to climatology. Equatorward transport extremes feature a mean meridional equatorward transport in winter, while the planetary and synoptic modes mostly transport energy poleward. In summer, a systematic destructive interference occurs, with planetary modes mostly transporting energy equatorward and synoptic modes again poleward. This underscores that baroclinic conversion dominates regardless of season in the synoptic wave modes, whereas the planetary waves can be either free or forced, depending on the season.

Dust Radiative Effects on Climate by Glaciating Mixed‐Phase Clouds

AbstractMineral dust plays an important role in the primary formation of ice crystals in mixed‐phase clouds by acting as ice nucleating particles (INPs). It can influence the cloud phase transition and radiative forcing of mixed‐phase clouds, both of which are crucial to global energy budget and climate. In this study, we investigate the dust indirect effects on mixed‐phase clouds through heterogeneous ice nucleation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Dust and INP concentrations simulated from two versions of E3SM with three ice nucleation parameterizations were evaluated against observations in the Northern Hemisphere. Constrained by these observations, E3SM shows that dust INPs induce a global mean net cloud radiative effect of 0.05 to 0.26 W/m2 with the predominant warming appearing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, a cooling effect is found in the Arctic due to reduced longwave cloud forcing.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on δD and δ18O in meteoric water in the Armenian Highland

The stable hydrogen (δD) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope composition of modern meteoric water are influenced by changes in global temperature, Rayleigh distillation processes, and moisture transport history. However, on a global scale the relative influence of these different meteorological variables is spatially heterogeneous. We collected daily precipitation samples from meteorological stations in the Armenian Highlands for a period of one year in order to determine the constraints on δD and δ18O and relationship to broader climatic conditions. These data are coupled with HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis to determine how these compositions relate to moisture source and transport path. Multivariate analysis shows the strongest relationship between δD and δ18O and climate variables is temperature at the sampling site. Along with temperature, the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a pattern of atmospheric circulation which determines the strength and location of Northern Hemisphere midlatitude westerlies, is significant (p < 0.05) for both δ18O and δD values of precipitation. This correlation between NAO and isotopes in precipitation is also observed in four nearby GNIP stations from 2008 to 2015. Negative NAO phases are associated with weakened westerlies, which allows precipitation enriched in heavy isotopes from the Mediterranean and southerly sources to penetrate into the Armenian Highlands, whereas positive NAO phases are associated with stronger westerlies bringing more negative precipitation from the Black Sea. This relationship is most significant (p < 0.001) during the winter and spring months (December to May). These data demonstrate that paleo-archives of δD and δ18O in the Armenian Highlands could serve as a tool to measure changes in the NAO in the past, particularly when coupled with independent measurements of temperature.

Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of Cold and Hot Spells

AbstractThe persistence of surface weather during several recent high-impact weather events has been pivotal in generating their societal impact. Here we examine Hovmöller diagrams of the 250-hPa meridional wind during several periods with particularly persistent surface weather and find a common pattern in these Hovmöller diagrams. This pattern can be characterized as a “recurrent Rossby wave pattern” (RRWP), arising from multiple transient synoptic-scale wave packets. During such RRWP periods, individual troughs and ridges forming the wave packets repeatedly amplify in the same geographical region. We discuss the synoptic evolution of two RRWP periods, in February–March 1987 and July–August 1994, and illustrate how the recurrence of the transient wave packets led to unusually long-lasting cold and hot spells, which occurred simultaneously in several regions, each separated by roughly one synoptic wavelength. Furthermore, a simple index termedRis proposed to identify RRWPs, which is based on both a time and wavenumber filter applied to conventional Hovmöller diagrams. A Weibull regression analysis then shows that large values ofRare statistically significantly linked to increased durations of winter cold and summer hot spells in large areas of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Traditionally, persistent high-impact surface weather has often been linked to the occurrence of proximate atmospheric blocking. In contrast to blocking, RRWPs affect persistent surface temperature anomalies over multiple synoptic wavelengths. We therefore argue that, in addition to blocking, RRWPs should be considered as an important flow feature leading to persistent high-impact surface weather.

Large-scale transport into the Arctic: the roles of the midlatitude jet and the Hadley Cell

Abstract. Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25 %–45 % difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes.