Meridional Potential Vorticity Gradient Research Articles

The Role of Vortex Preconditioning in the Occurrence of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events

Abstract The Antarctic weak polar vortex events (WPVs) can induce noticeable impacts on the tropospheric circulation. The vortex preconditioning refers to the anomalous stratospheric state favoring the occurrence of vortex disruption. Motivated by the limited research on the stratospheric preconditioning of Antarctic WPVs, the detailed role of preconditioned stratospheric anomalies in triggering WPVs is investigated, using the latest ERA5.1 reanalysis data. The vortex preconditioning of WPVs originates from the planetary wave breaking in the middle-upper stratosphere. It features a poleward shift of the polar night jet that occurs within 80 days before the onset of WPVs, coinciding with the sharpening of meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient along the vortex edge. Our results indicate that the stratospheric modulation during vortex preconditioning is the essential factor for triggering most Antarctic WPVs, regardless of the presence of an anomalously strong wave source in the troposphere. About 84% of WPVs are preceded by robustly positive meridional PV gradient anomalies along the vortex edge. Furthermore, about 36% of WPVs are only preceded by strong stratospheric anomalies but without anomalously strong tropospheric wave pulse. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere, preconditioned stratospheric signals in the Southern Hemisphere have a longer duration and larger proportion linking to WPVs. More Antarctic WPVs are preceded by more frequency wave-1 minor warming-like disturbances in the middle-upper stratosphere than Arctic WPVs. Especially, the stratospheric indicator can at least account for about 41% and 65% magnitudes of 10-day zonal-wind deceleration for the two consensus Antarctic WPVs in 2002 and 2019, respectively.

Investigating the December 2023 warm-to-cold weather whiplash in China using a novel flash-cold metric

Abstract In mid-December 2023, China experienced an unprecedented cold wave that marked a critical stage in a negative temperature-related weather whiplash event (WWE), which was characterized by a rapid shift from extreme warmth to extreme cold. The traditional metric—temperature variance—is insufficient to reflect the temporal evolution of this WWE. Therefore, we introduce a novel metric termed "flash-cold" to identify the sharp and significant decrease in surface air temperature. This new metric not only effectively captures recent WWEs trend in line with variance-based metric but also allows daily tracking of temperature shifts. Using the flash-cold metric, we delineate the evolution of the WWE case in China into four phases: first warm spell, first flash-cold, second warm spell, and second flash-cold (corresponding to the unprecedented cold wave). A recently proposed Lagrangian temperature budget analysis highlights the crucial role of high-latitude blocking circulation in both flash-cold phases through cold advection. The first flash-cold phase was triggered by backward cold air masses driven by upstream systems associated with Okhotsk blocking, while the second flash-cold phase developed when the trough downstream of Ural blocking moved eastward and rotated counterclockwise. In contrast, subtropical systems moderated the decreasing temperature during the first flash-cold through diabatic processes but had minimal impact on the second flash-cold, helping to explain why the second flash-cold was more intense. From a multiscale interaction perspective, the development of these blocking circulations was facilitated by a background of exceptionally weak meridional gradient of potential vorticity, the smallest recorded since 1979.

Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires

In recent decades boreal wildfires have occurred frequently over eastern Siberia, leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants. However, it is unclear what factors have contributed to recent increases in these wildfires. Here, using the data we show that background eastern Siberian Arctic warming (BAW) related to summer Russian Arctic sea-ice decline accounts for ~79% of the increase in summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) that controls wildfires over eastern Siberia over 2004-2021 with the remaining ~21% related to internal atmospheric variability associated with changes in Siberian blocking events. We further demonstrate that Siberian blocking events are occurring at higher latitudes, are more persistent and have larger zonal scales and slower decay due to smaller meridional potential vorticity gradients caused by stronger BAW under lower sea-ice. These changes lead to more persistent, widespread and intense high-latitude warming and VPD, thus contributing to recent increases in eastern Siberian high-latitude wildfires.

The Role of Surface Potential Vorticity in the Vertical Structure of Mesoscale Eddies in Wind-Driven Ocean Circulations

Abstract The vertical structure of ocean eddies is generally surface-intensified, commonly attributed to the dominant baroclinic modes arising from the boundary conditions (BCs). Conventional BC considerations mostly focus on either flat- or rough-bottom conditions. The impact of surface buoyancy anomalies—often represented by surface potential vorticity (PV) anomalies—has not been fully explored. Here, we study the role of the surface PV in setting the vertical distribution of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in an idealized adiabatic ocean model driven by wind stress. The simulated EKE profile in the extratropical ocean tends to peak at the surface and have an e-folding depth typically smaller than half of the ocean depth. This vertical structure can be reasonably represented by a single surface quasigeostrophic (SQG) mode at the energy-containing scale resulting from the large-scale PV structure. Due to isopycnal outcropping and interior PV homogenization, the surface meridional PV gradient is substantially stronger than the interior PV gradient, yielding surface-trapped baroclinically unstable modes with horizontal scales comparable to or smaller than the deformation radius. These surface-trapped eddies then grow in size both horizontally and vertically through an inverse energy cascade up to the energy-containing scale, which dominates the vertical distribution of EKE. As for smaller horizontal scales, the EKE distribution decays faster with depth. Guided by this interpretation, an SQG-based scale-aware parameterization of the EKE profile is proposed. Preliminary offline diagnosis of a high-resolution simulation shows the proposed scheme successfully reproducing the dependence of the vertical structure of EKE on the horizontal grid resolution.

The response of atmospheric blocking and East Asian cold extremes to future Arctic Sea ice loss

The effect of Arctic warming on cold extremes over middle latitude remains a controversial and unresolved issue, particularly considering potential enhanced Arctic amplification in future scenarios. Here we examine the possible responses of winter cold extremes to the projected sea ice loss under 2 °C global warming scenario in four models, based on the atmosphere-only experiments of the Polar Amplification Model Inter-comparison Project (PAMIP). We find agreement with the increased responses of extreme cold days over East Asia (EA), characterized by longer duration or stronger intensity of temperature drop during cold events. Accordingly, most models exhibit a weak response of the Ural blocking in the corresponding composite circulation fields, whereas the westward movement of an anomalous anticyclonic system from eastern Siberia before the maturing of the Ural blocking is notable in four models. We suggest that this westward shifting pattern may prolong the duration of Ural blocking or modulate the strength of the Northeast Asian cold vortex, resulting in longer or stronger cold anomalies in EA. Accordingly, increased blocking frequency with a more pronounced westward response of shipment signals is also found over eastern Siberia, where a reduced meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) exists. The background of weak PVy can enhance the atmospheric nonlinearity, resulting in the anticyclonic anomalies less prone to dispersion and presenting a westward characteristic. Our results highlight the impact of the nonlinear response of circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. In contrast to more concerned Ural blocking influence, it is suggested that the downstream impact of eastern Siberia blocking on cold extremes in EA may be more pronounced in an enhanced Arctic amplification climate.

Summer Russian Heat Waves Linked to Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in 2010 and 2016

Abstract This study investigates dominant features of the atmospheric circulation evolution associated with extreme heat waves (HWs) in Russia during the summers of 2010 and 2016, respectively, and their possible association with Arctic sea ice loss. Results show that a region of Russia (20°–70°E, 45°–65°N) experienced a lasting 44-day HW event from 4 July to 16 August 2010 and a 26-day HW event from 2 to 27 August 2016. The associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are characterized by the summer Arctic cold anomaly in the mid- to low troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Ural Mountains. Simulation experiments forced by summer Arctic sea ice anomalies reproduce the major characteristics of observational associations. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that summer Arctic sea ice anomaly is conducive to the formation of the summer Arctic cold anomaly, which is often accompanied by the enhanced baroclinicity in most of the Arctic troposphere and increased and decreased meridional temperature gradient in the high and midlatitudes, respectively. Such a configuration strengthens westerly winds over most of the Arctic and weakens zonal westerly over the southern Ural Mountains. This anomalous zonal wind pattern establishes the background conditions for the sustained positive geopotential height anomaly in the mid- to low troposphere that dynamically facilitates the prevalence of Russian HW events. Moreover, when compared with 2016, the weaker meridional potential vorticity gradient anomaly in the summer of 2010 prolonged the persistence of Ural blocking, which may lead to longer HW events in Russia.

Effects of Stratospheric Warming on Ural blocking Events in Winter

AbstractUtilizing the Open Integrated Forecasting System, the responses of Ural blocking (UB) to different stratospheric warming scenarios are investigated. Numerical results show that stratospheric warming with moderate strength in minor patterns prolongs the UB duration and enhances its intensity, while strong stratospheric warming in minor patterns tends to shorten its duration and weaken its intensity, even leading to the collapse of the UB events. Further diagnosis reveals that the planetary wave activity flux propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere after stratospheric warming. Moreover, the convergence of planetary wave activity flux is a key factor for UB enhancement and maintenance. In addition, the weakened meridional temperature gradients, decelerated zonal westerly winds, and a reduced meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) result in UB enhancement in response to stratospheric warming with moderate strength. As stratospheric warming strengthens, planetary wave activity flux diverges, westerly winds in the tropospheric mid‐latitudes accelerate and the PVy in the Ural sector enlarges, which further weakens UB. Regarding the stratospheric perturbations in major patterns, they have similar influences on UB events, that is, UB enhances with moderate stratospheric warming and weakens with strong warming. However, the strengthened warming would trigger UB re‐enhancement, which is closely associated with anomalous activities of tropospheric synoptic‐scale waves induced by stratospheric perturbations. These results reveal UB events respond differently to stratospheric warming with various intensities and patterns in the short term, which makes a contribution to understanding stratosphere‐troposphere coupling.

Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter over the Continental United States and Its Possible Linkage with Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The mechanism for the paradox of global warming and successive cold winters in mid-latitudes remains controversial. In this study, the connection between Arctic sea ice (ASI) loss and frequent cold air outbreaks in eastern Continental United States (CONUS) is explored. Two distinct periods of high and low ASI (hereafter high- and low-ice phases) are identified for comparative study. It is demonstrated that cold air outbreaks occur more frequently during the low-ice phase compared to that during the high-ice phase. The polar vortex is weakened and shifted southward during the low-ice phase. Correspondingly, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which represents the mid-tropospheric circulation, shows a clear negative Arctic Oscillation-like pattern in the low-ice phase. Specifically, positive GPH anomalies in the Arctic region with two centers, respectively located over Greenland and the Barents Sea, significantly weaken the low-pressure system centered around the Baffin Island, and enhance Ural blocking in the low-ice phase. Meanwhile, the high ridge extending from Alaska to the west coast of North America further intensifies, while the low trough over eastern CONUS deepens. As a result, the atmospheric circulation in North America becomes more conductive to frigid Arctic air outbreaks. It is concluded that the ASI loss contributes to more cold air outbreaks in winter in eastern CONUS through the polar vortex weakening with southward displacement of the polar vortex edge, which lead to the weakening of the meridional potential vorticity gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitude and thus are conducive to the strengthening and long-term maintenance of the blocking high.

Structure and Characteristics of Synoptic-Scale Waves in the Northern Eurasian Storm Track during Summer

Abstract This study examined the dominant structure and characteristics of synoptic-scale (2–8-day periods) waves over northern Eurasia during 40 summer seasons (June–August, 1979–2018). The synoptic-scale wave patterns are isolated using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis on the 300-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and a composite based on atmospheric circulation fields and gridded precipitation product. The wave patterns are classified into two types from two pairs of EEOF modes. These two different wave types are defined as the polar frontal (PF) mode and Arctic frontal (AF) mode, respectively. The PF-mode waves are initiated in the North Atlantic sector to the west of the British Isles. They propagate eastward across Siberia into the North Pacific, and produce precipitation mainly over the Eurasian polar frontal zone. The AF-mode wave train arcs along the climatological Arctic frontal zone (AFZ). The AF-mode waves originate near the Scandinavian Peninsula. Their eastward passage brings precipitation along the AFZ. The development of the synoptic-scale waves is reflected by unique background conditions over northern Eurasia. The lower-tropospheric baroclinicity in southern Siberia and central Asia favored the baroclinic growth of the PF-mode waves. The AF-mode waves are trapped in the well-organized baroclinic zone along the north coast of the Eurasian continent. The baroclinic zone is coupled with a band of large meridional gradient of potential vorticity in the upper troposphere, suggesting that this band acts as a waveguide for the AF-mode waves. Significance Statement This study examines the synoptic-scale waves in the 2–8-day range of time scales over northern Eurasia during summer. The synoptic-scale waves are categorized into two distinct types at different latitude bands by the EEOF analysis on the 300-hPa z anomalies. They are defined as polar frontal (PF) mode and Arctic frontal (AF) mode. Then the EEOF-based composite analysis is conducted to detect the large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the propagation of different types of synoptic-scale waves. The structure and characteristics are examined. The roles of the mean background conditions in the development and propagation of the respective types are discussed. The behavior of these wave disturbances as rain-producing weather systems is also examined.

Different influences of La Niña types on the winter sub-seasonal Eurasian cold anomalies linked to Ural blocking

The effects of different types of La Niña on winter sub-seasonal cold anomalies or cold extremes over Eurasia and Siberia are examined through exploring changes in Ural blocking (UB). It is found that the Central Pacific (CP) La Niña can significantly influence surface air temperature over Eurasia mainly by regulating the movement, persistence, zonal scale and location of the cyclonic anomaly associated with the UB. This influence is much greater than that resulting from an Eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña. A long-lived and quasi-stationary cyclonic anomaly with a large zonal scale of UB is induced to the southeast of the Ural Mountains for CP-type La Niña conditions, which leads to a strong warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern with an intense sub-seasonal cold anomaly or cold event in the broad region of Eurasia due to strongly reduced downward infrared radiation over Eurasia. In contrast, for EP-type La Niña winter the cyclonic anomaly, while still present, is much weaker, short-lived and eastward propagating, resulting in only a very weak cold anomaly or cold event over a small region of Eurasia. The reduced (enhanced) eastward movement and increased (decreased) persistence of the cyclonic anomaly with large (small) zonal scale of UB are shown to be associated with reduced (enhanced) meridional potential vorticity gradient in the midlatitudes (30o-50oN) to the east of 60°E during the CP-type (EP-type) La Niña winter.

The Indian Easterly Jet During the Pre‐Monsoon Season in India

AbstractWe identify for the first time an Indian Easterly Jet (IEJ) in the mid‐troposphere during the pre‐monsoon using reanalysis data. The IEJ is weaker and smaller than the African Easterly Jet over West Africa, with a climatological location of 10°N, 60–90°E, 700 hPa, and strength 6–7 m s−1 during March–May. The IEJ is a thermal wind associated with low‐level meridional gradients in temperature (positive) and moisture (negative), resulting from equatorward moist convection and poleward dry convection. The IEJ is associated with a negative meridional potential vorticity gradient, therefore satisfying the Charney‐Stern necessary condition for instability. However, no wave activity is detected, suggesting that the potential for combined barotropic‐baroclinic instability is not often realized. IEJ strong (weak) years feature increased (reduced) near‐surface temperatures and drier (wetter) conditions over India. This study provides an introduction to the IEJ's role in pre‐monsoon dynamics, and a platform for further research.

Loss of autumn Kara-East Siberian Sea ice intensifies winter Ural blocking and cold anomalies in high latitudes of Eurasia

Sea ice in the Kara-East Siberian Sea (KESS) declined to the lowest record in the autumn of 2020 and has been suggested to affect the Eurasian climate in the following winter. By analyzing reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021 and performing model experiments, this study demonstrates that the loss of autumn KESS sea ice acts to intensify the Eurasian cold spells in winter. Low autumn KESS sea ice attenuates the stratospheric polar vortex through driving upward planetary wave activities. The weakening of polar vortex persists to winter and induces anomalies in tropospheric zonal wind and meridional gradient of potential vorticity through downward wave propagation. These intraseasonal to cross-seasonal processes lead to enhancement and prolonged duration of Ural blocking that aggravates Eurasian cold spells. A positive feedback likely exists between the weak stratospheric polar vortex induced by autumn sea ice loss and the wintertime Ural blocking via vertical wave propagation. The results establish a link between autumn KESS sea ice and Eurasian winter climate, with implications for seasonal prediction of Eurasian cold events.

Role of Horizontal Heat Advection in Arctic Surface Warming During Early Spring

AbstractReanalysis data and numerical model are employed to uncover the mechanisms of spring (March–April) Arctic surface warming. Different from other seasons, little additional solar radiation absorption or seasonal heat storage release contributes to Arctic surface warming in spring. Both observation and numerical results suggest that horizontal heat advection dominates Arctic surface air warming. However, horizontal advection originates from lower latitudes instead of local energy redistribution as in other seasons. Furthermore, Arctic warming weakens the meridional potential vorticity gradient, which strengthens the synoptic atmospheric blocking event. As a result, more warm (cold) air is transported to higher (lower) latitudes along the edge of high pressure, which is an accumulation of atmospheric blocking events. The results suggest that anomalous meridional heat transport plays more important roles in Arctic surface warming when the anomalous radiative forcing is weak. Without being absorbed by the ocean, additional available energy induces strong Arctic springtime surface warming.

Quasi-two-day wave amplification through interhemispheric coupling during the 2010 austral summer

A quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) event during January-February 2010 is investigated using the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset. MERRA-2 data reveals the growth of the QTDW westward propagating wavenumber 3 preceded by a weak westward wavenumber 4. The diagnostic analysis suggests that the QTDW growth near tropical stratopause is mainly supported by barotropic (BT) instability in the presence of the summer easterly jet. BT instability during this event is suggested to be linked to the planetary wave breaking (PWB) in the winter hemisphere. The connecting link between the two appears to be the inertial instability (II) supported by the cross-equatorial transport of potential vorticity in association with PWB in the winter hemisphere which is consistent with the previous studies. Signatures of II are evident from the MERRA-2 temperature and wind anomalies in the vicinity of cross-equatorial transport of potential vorticity. One important observation brought out in this study is that the strength of meridional wind anomalies in the regions of the II appears to control the meridional curvature of the zonal mean zonal wind and, hence, BT instability of the jet. Overall, the temporal evolution of the QTDW at tropical stratopause during this event is consistent with the episodes of PWB, strength of meridional wind anomalies around the II and meridional curvature of zonal mean zonal wind. The latitude-altitude growth of the QTDW W3 in the zonal wind conforms to the location of critical layers and region of negative meridional gradient of potential vorticity.

Bidimensional climatology and trends of Northern Hemisphere blocking utilizing a new detection method

AbstractIn this article, the meridional gradient of daily potential vorticity (PV) on the 330 K isentropic surface is used to identify atmospheric blocking events for the period 1979–2019. The associated two‐dimensional index considers not only Rossby wave breaking, but also energy dispersion and nonlinearity of blocking systems, and thus has a solid theoretical foundation. It also has the advantage of automatically excluding subtropical high‐pressure systems in summer and autumn. The index reveals that the Northern Hemisphere exhibits high blocking frequency over Euro‐Atlantic, North Pacific and Greenland in winter, spring and autumn, and over two wide‐extended bands at high latitudes in summer. Two prominent blocking episode (BE) intensity centres are found over the eastern Atlantic and eastern Pacific in all seasons, while the long‐lived BE is primarily situated in regions with high BE frequency. There is more frequent and longer‐lived BE in the Euro‐Atlantic sector than in the North Pacific, whereas the BE in the North Pacific is more intense. Notably, with the same poleward criterion for the four seasons, the BE frequency and duration are supposed to be overestimated in summer. Comparing our blocking detection method with previous blocking indices provides additional information about the long‐term trends for blocking frequency and intensity, which can be useful to our understanding of future extremes on climate time‐scales. It is found that both blocking frequency and intensity exhibit upward linear trends in the Ural region and Barents–Kara Sea in winter, Europe, northern North Pacific and East Siberia in spring, western Greenland in summer, as well as Norwegian Sea, Europe and North Atlantic in autumn, which point to increases in high‐impact weather events in these regions.

Influence of Preconditioned Stratospheric State on the Surface Response to Displacement and Split Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

AbstractSudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can affect tropospheric weather and climate, while the factors affecting the surface response to SSWs are not fully understood. This study shows the important effects of preconditioned stratospheric state on the surface response to displacement and split SSWs using ERA5 reanalysis and historical simulations from 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 models show that preconditioned stratospheric signals (e.g., positive meridional potential vorticity gradient anomaly in the upper stratosphere) can promote the upward propagation of stratospheric planetary waves by decreasing the negative refractive index frequency before SSWs. The modulation of strong stratospheric preconditions causes larger upper‐stratospheric anomalies for subsequent SSWs and prominent barotropic downward impacts for split SSWs. Meanwhile, the strong preconditioned signals affect the preexisting tropospheric variability, masking the downward impacts of displacement SSWs. The surface response is thus weaker than that to displacement SSWs with weak preconditions.

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

The Role of Vortex Preconditioning in Influencing the Occurrence of Strong and Weak Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in ERA5 Reanalysis

Abstract The anomalous stratospheric state favoring the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is usually referred to as vortex preconditioning. This study investigates the role of vortex preconditioning in triggering strong and weak SSWs by using ERA5 reanalysis data. Strong and weak SSWs are distinguished by the amplitude of zonal wind deceleration of sudden stratospheric deceleration events. The robust stratospheric anomalies before strong SSWs last longer compared to weak SSWs, accompanied by stronger amplification of stratospheric wave activity near the warming. The stratospheric anomalies before weak SSWs have two significant enhancement stages, with two processes of stratospheric wave amplification. Robust stratospheric anomalies generally appear before tropospheric wave events (TWEs) followed by the strong and weak SSWs, which are absent before TWEs without SSWs. Stratospheric meridional potential vorticity gradient events (SPVEs) are defined to represent the anomalous stratospheric state during vortex preconditioning. The SPVEs can effectively modulate the stratospheric upward wave activity. No strong lower-tropospheric wave forcing is seen for the composites of both strong and weak SSWs preceded by SPVEs. These SSWs account for about 59% of the total SSWs. Furthermore, about 23% of strong SSWs and 36% of weak SSWs are only preceded by SPVEs without TWEs, indicating the major role of vortex preconditioning in triggering these SSWs. The SPVEs can be caused by wave breaking in the surfzone or the enhanced polar vortex, while the SPVEs preceded by clear wave breaking may be more favorable to the occurrence of SSWs.

The Role of the Quasi 5‐Day Wave on the Onset of Polar Mesospheric Cloud Seasons in the Northern Hemisphere

AbstractThe quasi 5‐day wave (Q5DW) with zonal wavenumber 1 is a dominant planetary wave (PW) oscillation in the polar summer mesospheric temperature and polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) fields. In this paper, the Q5DW signal derived from 16 years (2007–2022) of Microwave Limb Sounder temperature observations is used to investigate the role of this PW mode on the onset of PMC seasons in the northern hemisphere (NH). PMC data from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument during this time indicates that NH PMC season onsets ranged from 15 to 28 May, with earliest onsets in 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Except 2013 and 2022, the other four earlier onsets were also characterized by enhanced Q5DW activity. The wave amplification appears to be driven by baroclinic instability arising from the negative meridional gradient of potential vorticity in the high‐latitude summer mesosphere. CIPS data show that when the Q5DW was present at the beginning of the season, clouds formed preferentially in the cold troughs of the wave. We thus propose that the much colder troughs due to enhanced Q5DW activity in mid‐May of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2021 influenced the timing of PMC onset in these years. While the 11‐year solar cycle, inter‐ and intra‐hemispheric coupling due to gravity wave and PW activity have been shown to contribute to earlier onset of PMC seasons in the NH, our analysis suggests that enhanced Q5DW activity also plays a major role.

Extreme Cold Events in North America and Eurasia in November-December 2022: A Potential Vorticity Gradient Perspective

From 17 November to 27 December 2022, extremely cold snowstorms frequently swept across North America and Eurasia. Diagnostic analysis reveals that these extreme cold events were closely related to the establishment of blocking circulations. Alaska Blocking (AB) and subsequent Ural Blocking (UB) episodes are linked to the phase transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and represent the main atmospheric regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. The downstream dispersion and propagation of Rossby wave packets from Alaska to East Asia provide a large-scale connection between AB and UB episodes. Based on the nonlinear multi-scale interaction (NMI) model, we found that the meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in November and December of 2022 was anomalously weak in the mid-high latitudes from North America to Eurasia and provided a favorable background for the prolonged maintenance of UB and AB events and the generation of associated severe extreme snowstorms. However, the difference in the UB in terms of its persistence, location, and strength between November and December is related to the positive (negative) NAO in November (December). During the La Niña winter of 2022, the UB and AB events are related to the downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies, in addition to contributions by La Niña and low Arctic sea ice concentrations as they pertain to reducing PVy in mid-latitudes.